moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well--maybe it's on crack. Off to bed. See you all in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM may well come well west tomorrow when it resolves the 2 centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the NAM is right, than Bob's a happy man. Ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well--maybe it's on crack. Off to bed. See you all in the a.m. It's certainly strung out like its on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, effed up or not it is still a bit NW of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Goes from a Miller A to SWFE........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 In the end....verifies Harv's 6-12 for Boston at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually...it's not. It's well NW.. not quite as far as I thought b/c that leading PVA is stringing out and the main trough energy never fully takes over.. But it is well NW of 18z.. the .25 line goes to the SE corner of VT, on the 18z it went through springfield. Now springfield is .5" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0Z NAM - Bizarro Run Noyes just called for a foot even to the CT shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not sure it's off it's rocker. We're not looking at a phase here really so if the vort max gets a bit more strung out and doesn't start sharpening off the coast this is the end result. This is the euro maps scott posted earlier/rh but with a stronger eastern extension mucking it up. It's actually not a bad trend, but I kind of figured tonights runs were going to bounce and the first one did. I think others may follow. Three pieces of energy involved, northern semi kicker, two main vm in the overall m/l low and the real southern (STJ almost?) skipping across Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 either way still looks like a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's certainly strung out like its on crack. It's strung out because when the 500mb shortwave leaves the mid atlantic it doesn't rapidly tighten up and spin a really strong mid level vortex. The GFS, for instance, at 18z goes crazy which seems overdone to me given the face there's not much phase at all and in fact 2 really short wavelength s/w's in the northern stream right behind it. I'd say the super-amped up GFS solutions look more wacky than the NAM. The NAM not closing off a crazy 500mb low and deepening it and other models doing it is odd... normally it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 In the end....verifies Harv's 6-12 for Boston at least. Yup... which I think is why 6-12 is a reasonable and fair forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's well NW.. not quite as far as I thought b/c that leading PVA is stringing out and the main trough energy never fully takes over.. But it is well NW of 18z.. the .25 line goes through southern VT, on the 18z it went through springfield. Now springfield is .5" or so That it is. 0.75 qpf line hits the Pike. 0.5 through 63 hours to the NH border in NE MA. An improvement but still a work in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's strung out because when the 500mb shortwave leaves the mid atlantic it doesn't rapidly tighten up and spin a really strong mid level vortex. The GFS, for instance, at 18z goes crazy which seems overdone to me given the face there's not much phase at all and in fact 2 really short wavelength s/w's in the northern stream right behind it. I'd say the super-amped up GFS solutions look more wacky than the NAM. The NAM not closing off a crazy 500mb low and deepening it and other models doing it is odd... normally it's the other way around. I think it may be because the NAM is feeling the tug of that southern/eastern system that rides around. It's interfering enough to cause problems on this run of the NAM. It's the southern little spin coming south of the Baja now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's well NW.. not quite as far as I thought b/c that leading PVA is stringing out and the main trough energy never fully takes over.. But it is well NW of 18z.. the .25 line goes to the SE corner of VT, on the 18z it went through springfield. Now springfield is .5" or so It's NW of its previous run but for the most part this continues to be a much different solution than the global models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM says it's a Thurs AM peak here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 either way still looks like a good snowstorm Not here, but I take solace in the fact that it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 As weird a solution as it is, somehow we still get a mod. snowstorm out of it. Ryan...thanks...makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This vort just east f ME there seems kind of odd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, effed up or not it is still a bit NW of 18z. Yeah it actually brings precip into here so it is NW...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not sure it's off it's rocker. We're not looking at a phase here really so if the vort max gets a bit more strung out and doesn't start sharpening off the coast this is the end result. I would hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 In the end....verifies Harv's 6-12 for Boston at least. Yeah, and I'm swimming in the foot end of that. I don't believe it for one minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's NW of its previous run but for the most part this continues to be a much different solution than the global models are showing. Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be similar to or west of the GFS. But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This will continue to adjust NW. Think back to last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Until the NAM can figure out which vort max is dominant which is one of its biases, then it will come in line with the globals. The globals usually focus on one and not numerous ons like the NAM does again and again. Too many grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This will continue to adjust NW. Think back to last Friday. 15" lollies??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah a work in progress. It's interesting though.. if you compare the main trough energy at 42 hrs to the 18z GFS at 48 hours, the NAM is considerably farther west and looks to be barreling northward. If you were to look at that alone I would expect the NAM to be well west of the GFS. But that leading PVA/convection off the coastline already by 42 hrs prevents it from closing off and winding up Yeah the GFS going berserk with with closing the 500mb low probably isn't totally right either. A solution in between is likely which probably is a good snowstorm for many of us. My 3-6, 6-12 call stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah it actually brings precip into here so it is NW...... 18z was flurries mby, 00z is .25". Baby steps, still a couple days of nice NW trends to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks much much improved over the south. Unfortunately, the northern stream s/w swinging through the GL is more progressive, and shunts the storm east. For those that think a later start time = longer duration, you are very very wrong A later start time means that the northern stream wave has progressed further east over that span of time, and thus has less time until it bullies it out of New England. Personally, I'd rather see this thing book it up the coast toward Delmarva, then slow as it pumps up downstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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