CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run really gets that ccb cranking across sne by hr 54, as the ULL support approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CCB over us at 57 hours. Not sure what people are complaining about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly....the n stream ruins it ont he GFS.....I still side witht he EURO, but now I am getting nervous. We'll have to hope the king doesn't blink. Nervous about what? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 54 hours it is dead nuts on the BM....984...dead nuts! It won't wrap as much moisture back as far as the EURO, though because of the kicker.......whole thing is more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Noyes new accums map has 12" on a line from BOS to PVD to HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wasn't looking at the detailed vorticity maps that you posted...so I will concede that it's there on the GFS. It was also there on the 12z GFS. However, it is clearly not affecting the the low position nearly as much as we are seeing on the NAM. It's really weak anyway Nick and I'm skeptical for your reasons/grid reach etc. But the features are real per water vapor...and as they come into focus they are playing a part...kind of cool isn't it in a way? Focus has been on the m/l when one key player is down in Cabo with the Dos Equis' guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nervous about what? Huh? The idea of the really large event on the EURO....GFS is a good storm, but not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS continues with the 2 part system...first part really not doing anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CCB over us at 57 hours. Not sure what people are complaining about... LOL ill be complaining because your getting an unheard of snowpack while i get a couple inches LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The idea of the really large event on the EURO....GFS is a good storm, but not as robust. Well see I like this part, especially when it takes the tick NW. This is robust to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not looking at QPF, I'd say the GFS has the appeal of a 6-12"er.....with hiighest amounts se of me in the I 95 corridor. Nice event....not the EURO. Truth maybe in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty sure this map is a red flag....I took an ambien ten minutes ago but this looks weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We miss the 54 to 60...remember only 6 hour qpf output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is going to be one tricky forecast, it seems that the majority of our snowfall totals may derive from the development of the CCB...we all know how those are, I could see some serious gradients with this one...a few lucky spots getting like 12-14'' while spots not too far away squeak out 6-8''. Going to wait until the 12z runs tomorrow before making a call but definitely not going to go for anything too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not looking at QFP, I'd say the GFS has the appeal of a 6-12"er.....with hiighest amounts se of me in the I 95 corridor. Nice event....not the EURO. Truth maybe in the middle. maybe we finally get into one of those 700mb deformation bands on the west side of the system lol...that's where the jackpots have been with the last three storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like where I sit here in southeast NH. Will be interesting to see how the models handle the new data from the NOAA aircraft in the 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Like the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not looking at QPF, I'd say the GFS has the appeal of a 6-12"er.....with hiighest amounts se of me in the I 95 corridor. Nice event....not the EURO. Truth maybe in the middle. This is exactly what I'm thinking actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know that UK seriously hits us from 48 to 54 given the appearance at 48 and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 maybe we finally get into one of those 700mb deformation bands on the west side of the system lol...that's where the jackpots have been with the last three storms. Models want to track that over sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm having trouble with the 2 part thing. I don't know...I understand how it could happen, but not sure I buy it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Models want to track that over sne. Same as it has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Gfs concerning. Cut way back in nw and keeps the low disorganized for a while until the 500mb starts wrapping up. That gets close to an ugly solution back my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 maybe we finally get into one of those 700mb deformation bands on the west side of the system lol...that's where the jackpots have been with the last three storms. After looking at QPF, it's about exactly as I thought....6-12", highest se. I agree, Nick......we know the drill about the nw extent of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm having trouble with the 2 part thing. I don't know...I understand how it could happen, but not sure I buy it yet. Yea, either it isn't going to go down like that, or this event will take a dump....those hardly ever work out....almost like the inverted trough stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm having trouble with the 2 part thing. I don't know...I understand how it could happen, but not sure I buy it yet. To be honest, I think it took a step towards the euro with a developing CCB as compared to 18z. It may a little late to the party and quicker to leave, but it forms a nice looking CCB Wed Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Gfs concerning. Cut way back in nw and keeps the low disorganized for a while until the 500mb starts wrapping up. That gets close to an ugly solution back my way. 2 for 2 for me, I would hit that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be honest, I think it took a step towards the euro with a developing CCB as compared to 18z. It may a little late to the party and quicker to leave, but it forms a nice looking CCB Wed Night. UKMET looks Euroesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2 for 2 for me, I would hit that too. If be worried about the trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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