Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah I know, this just seems worse than before. You guys in MA, CT, and RI at least know you are getting something. Does anyone think the Euro is wrong? Most people really are showing strong dedication to it. I don't think there is any doubt it's worse than before and I think OSU, Wxforecaster and others have had some ideas that are viable as to what is going on. IF by some chance the 6z suite is closer to correct it would kind of reinforce that maybe it's something in the initializations but that doesnt really explain the CMC leaps. The RGEM moved too IMO at 6z. The Euro could be wrong of course but at 72 hours the GFS NAM UK EURO showdown on the NCEP webpage - the verifications - the Euro isn't perfect by any means which at 48-72 it's usually darn near perfect - but it's FAR better than the other 3 at 500mb. One thing though, the Euro is 24 hrs behind in verification so it's not picking up on the system moving through the central US yet...IE, the other models are already being scored on that, the Euro panels have not updated completely yet. I think we may well see the NCEP all come back NW but the Euro come E SE some, but with the huge lean being in its' favor. I haven't looked much, just basing that entirely off of performance, verification, and the fact that the Euro has demonstrated (ens too) a decent but reasonable error at 48-72 hours. When all the meso's were west of it, the lean was west. They're mostly east this time which is why I think it wobbles that way some. Whatever is going on even the ARW/NMM don't agree. The NMM which I think has been better more times than the ARW for us, is going for the east solution. The ARW says no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 +1 Still plenty of uncertainty. Will come around soon though. Yes, By tonight 0z, Hopefully, All the cards should be on the table if not sooner....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Fire it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was kind of surprised by some of the comments from some up this way last night of this storm not being much at all up here in NNE, I still think this will be a decent event, No jackpot as i said all along but a MECS storm with 6-12" not out of the question unless the euro has a total meltdown... We better hope the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think there is any doubt it's worse than before and I think OSU, Wxforecaster and others have had some ideas that are viable as to what is going on. IF by some chance the 6z suite is closer to correct it would kind of reinforce that maybe it's something in the initializations but that doesnt really explain the CMC leaps. The RGEM moved too IMO at 6z. The Euro could be wrong of course but at 72 hours the GFS NAM UK EURO showdown on the NCEP webpage - the verifications - the Euro isn't perfect by any means which at 48-72 it's usually darn near perfect - but it's FAR better than the other 3 at 500mb. One thing though, the Euro is 24 hrs behind in verification so it's not picking up on the system moving through the central US yet...IE, the other models are already being scored on that, the Euro panels have not updated completely yet. I think we may well see the NCEP all come back NW but the Euro come E SE some, but with the huge lean being in its' favor. I haven't looked much, just basing that entirely off of performance, verification, and the fact that the Euro has demonstrated (ens too) a decent but reasonable error at 48-72 hours. When all the meso's were west of it, the lean was west. They're mostly east this time which is why I think it wobbles that way some. Whatever is going on even the ARW/NMM don't agree. The NMM which I think has been better more times than the ARW for us, is going for the east solution. The ARW says no way. Good analysis, thanks. Pretty comforting actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Closing up shop for 12z today. head on over to the new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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