Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[Scummyratguy]

hmm here in east york we have a very unofficial 1.5-2 inches. the wind is howling here. but everything is covered and i had to brush off the sidewalk, so it feels better than just a flurry. Did you end up getting anything in columbia? I live less than 10 minutes from there and can't believe you didn't have anything earlier!

[Rick G]

it has been snowing here for a few hours and we have yet to see an inch. Oh well. I did see a heavy band making it's way down from Scranton.

[NortheastPAWx]

it has been snowing here for a few hours and we have yet to see an inch. Oh well. I did see a heavy band making it's way down from Scranton.

Wind is blowing the snow around so it's not easy to measure...that said, it's likely not above 2.0".

[hckyplayer8]

After 4 hours of virga a full fledge flizzard is upon the Chicken Capital. Barely pushing 1/2 inch. Barely.

[sauss06]

... never saw a flake!

I took my daughter to a friends around 6pm and it was snowing decent. I thought maybe we'd pick up an inch or 2, but it stopped as quick as it started

[dcfox1]

Ended up with a dusting. .

[canderson]

I'm sorta happy, my back's hurting and shoveling wind-blown snow today wouldn't have helped much. We'll get ours in late February methinks (and hopes).

Aside from rain, this weekend will be nice. Highs might hit 50 on New Years day!

[afvet89]

this pattern has been so boring I welcome some rain and warmer temps.

[JSTWX]

We all know the the next 5 days will be fairly quiet for most of us. What I'm somewhat intrigued with is the pattern later next week and beyond. Even though La Nina starts to take over, our -NAO wants to hold on.

This should keep the cold air around for some time, but not as cold as it's been. We should start seeing storms break onto the west coast and almost roll straight east. We may get a few lakes cutters here and there, but I would not be surprised to see many storms go west-east and we could see some decent snows.

The PNA is not all that bad either, which argues for some lower heights in our part of the world.

The AO wants to stay negative as well, keeping the cold air from retreating too much

Day 8 and beyond really doesn't look all that bad. The mean trough is further west than it's been, but in a decent spot with blocking holding on.

The GFS has been insistent on something strong coming into the east around the 9th for a few days now. Going to be fun to watch.

[canderson]

What a great post! Thanks for that uplifting viewpoint.

I'm very impressed with the storm totals throughout NJ. Insane.

[JSTWX]

What a great post! Thanks for that uplifting viewpoint.

I'm very impressed with the storm totals throughout NJ. Insane.

I know! My cousin who lives near Newark had 2 feet!

[am19psu]

Everyone that is complaining about snow, please take it to this thread:

This thread is for observations, not whining. Thanks.

[kerplunk]

Everyone that is complaining about snow, please take it to this thread: http://www.americanw...smysnow-thread/

This thread is for observations, not whining. Thanks.

Finally!

It's clear here.

[Itstrainingtime]

Same to you as well. As I said 2 days ago, I'm okay if we miss out after being heeped upon so generously last year. Still, at least here at my locale, I'm not sure that this will be a miss just yet. Odds seem to favor that, but it also seems that this is such a delicate situation that nothing in the end result would really surprise me. The GFS continues to shift west (at least the ensembles do) and I think that some last minute changes (suprises) could/will occur. If I was a betting man, I'd say the odds of anything signicant here have dwindled, but this is not over... just yet.

In lieu of the previous post about whining/complaining, I pulled my comments up from last Thursday morning to help illustrate a point...why do so many people ride model runs so emotionally? Sure, it didn't work out for us here in our area, but look how many people bailed and gave up on this past storm all along the east coast on Thursday when virtually every computer model showed the storm giving NO ONE snow outside of perhaps Cape Cod. Many of those same individuals that were complaining and in need of intervention on Thursday are now shoveling 2-3' of the partly cloudy that was forecasted for them that day.

Around New Years day in 1996, the Euro was showing a massive snowstorm for all up and down the eastern seaboard the following weekend, including just about all of PA. No other model indicated this possibility, and therefore, virtually no one other than Paul Knight on Weather World forecasted it. (I recall him calling for a paralyzing blizzard early that week while every one else was calling for a nice weekend.) Than low and behold, on Friday all of the other computer models caught on, and then our forecast here in Lancaster went from partly cloudy to 6" - 12" of snow, then 1' - 2' of snow, to 2' - 3' of snow in about a 24 hour period. We ended up with 30" where I lived, but I believe that York finished with 38".

Bottom line: things change with every storm, sometimes multiple times, sometimes for the better, others for the worse. Don't set yourself up for ecstasy or disappointment on each and every model run. It will end up driving you crazy.

[dcfox1]

Its still cloudy here. seriously, I think this thread is much better then others with the I'm off school for a week while looking at models a weeks out. . Maytownpawx makes a good point.

[canderson]

I know! My cousin who lives near Newark had 2 feet!

With the upcoming pattern changes you mentioned, I noticed you didn't specify the La Nina would be weakening in late January/early February (which has been talked about on the main forum for a few days now). Do you believe this will occur (there is debate) and if so would drastically change the pattern we've seen thus far? I know we typically don't fare well with Miller A's and need Miller Bi's and lake cutters for snowfall that hits the entire region. With a weakening La Nina and NAO going positive what would that theoretically produce, storm-wis, as a textbook case?

I, too, find this thread the best on this forum in regards to being fair, being open-minded and not many of us complaining about the weather. We pretty much all understand our climate and most importantly (unlike other forums) don't hate other regions for any storms they see and none of us here do. I think last night we weren't complaining, simply all giving obs.

[MAG5035]

We all know the the next 5 days will be fairly quiet for most of us. What I'm somewhat intrigued with is the pattern later next week and beyond. Even though La Nina starts to take over, our -NAO wants to hold on.

This should keep the cold air around for some time, but not as cold as it's been. We should start seeing storms break onto the west coast and almost roll straight east. We may get a few lakes cutters here and there, but I would not be surprised to see many storms go west-east and we could see some decent snows.

The PNA is not all that bad either, which argues for some lower heights in our part of the world.

The AO wants to stay negative as well, keeping the cold air from retreating too much

Day 8 and beyond really doesn't look all that bad. The mean trough is further west than it's been, but in a decent spot with blocking holding on.

The GFS has been insistent on something strong coming into the east around the 9th for a few days now. Going to be fun to watch.

Yes this will indeed be intriguing seeing how this shakes out the next couple weeks. What seems pretty certain is that the warm spell this weekend will be brief before that front brings things back to colder weather in the interim. Then of course the whole question is where to go from there. It does seem that all the major teleconnections for now are forecasted to back off on their magnitudes (AO coming toward positive, PNA going neutral to slightly positive, NAO somewhat less negative) which argues for at least a somewhat more zonal/progressive pattern and hence the possibility for the west to east tracking systems.

Whether or not this all shakes out as it looks now is def another story. I have been amazed by the persistance and strength of the -NAO/AO so far this season and thats something that of course goes back to last winter. As the La-Nina signal finally begins to make itself known this is likely something that is going to be pretty important. If the NAO/AO completely breaks down and reverses, then we would likely be at the mercy of the active pac jet and southeast ridge. But if it persists, the blocking could be adequate with an ok PNA to keep the eastern heights low enough to allow for some decent snow chances storm track-wise down the road.

All in all, its tough not to be bummed about the lack of snow in this region so far this winter. For me personally, watching a major snowstorm yank just to the east is worse than having a GLC. But I eventually got past that and sucked into watching last nights storm just pound away at the megalopolis. In the grand scheme of things, the classic major I-95/coastal snowstorm (much less a true blizzard) is not something that happens everyday in years that are supposed to support such things. The fact that one managed to occur during a year with a moderately strong la nina is pretty insane, and is probably a testament to that persistent blocking pattern in the north Atlantic. Take Philly for example, who managed about a foot.. via NWS Mount Holly:

MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA WINTERS UNLIKE THEIR EL NINO COUNTERPARTS

USUALLY HAVE LESS SNOW AND ALSO EXHIBIT LESS OF A CHANCE OF HAVING

LARGE SINGLE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 NO MODERATE

OR STRONG LA NINA WINTER (13 SEASONS IN ALL) HAS HAD A SINGLE

SNOWFALL EVENT OF 10 INCHES OR MORE AS MEASURED OFFICIALLY IN

PHILADELPHIA WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINOS HAVE HAD SEVEN (14

SEASONS IN ALL).

The rest of that linked disco was a great read and there were a couple other points in there that I thought were very interesting. My point in all this? One should keep their heads up as it is early in the winter and like last year, it is one that has the potential to be another nontraditional one with respect to general expectations.

[canderson]

The winds were so strong here in Harrisburg today a freight train crossing the Rockville Bridge had two cars blown off track and onto the rover.

Don't hear that everyday.

[2001kx]

With the upcoming pattern changes you mentioned, I noticed you didn't specify the La Nina would be weakening in late January/early February (which has been talked about on the main forum for a few days now). Do you believe this will occur (there is debate) and if so would drastically change the pattern we've seen thus far? I know we typically don't fare well with Miller A's and need Miller Bi's and lake cutters for snowfall that hits the entire region. With a weakening La Nina and NAO going positive what would that theoretically produce, storm-wis, as a textbook case?

I, too, find this thread the best on this forum in regards to being fair, being open-minded and not many of us complaining about the weather. We pretty much all understand our climate and most importantly (unlike other forums) don't hate other regions for any storms they see and none of us here do. I think last night we weren't complaining, simply all giving obs.

i dont know...miller B's usually screw us (they usually develop too late and hit the NE).

i will take my chances with a miller A

[JSTWX]

With the upcoming pattern changes you mentioned, I noticed you didn't specify the La Nina would be weakening in late January/early February (which has been talked about on the main forum for a few days now). Do you believe this will occur (there is debate) and if so would drastically change the pattern we've seen thus far? I know we typically don't fare well with Miller A's and need Miller Bi's and lake cutters for snowfall that hits the entire region. With a weakening La Nina and NAO going positive what would that theoretically produce, storm-wis, as a textbook case?

I, too, find this thread the best on this forum in regards to being fair, being open-minded and not many of us complaining about the weather. We pretty much all understand our climate and most importantly (unlike other forums) don't hate other regions for any storms they see and none of us here do. I think last night we weren't complaining, simply all giving obs.

I believe it will weaken some, but still remain weak-moderate for the rest of the winter. A weak-moderate nina and a weakly negative nao is being displayed in the 8-10 day euro with storms crashing into the west coast and cruising across the country. There would be more "bowling ball" type systems giving us light to moderate snows. As long as we stay with some sort of -NAO we'll keep getting chances of snow. If the nao does flip to positive - the large ladies will be singing.

Miller A's can give us big snows, with miller B's and GLC's usually less.

[JSTWX]

Yes this will indeed be intriguing seeing how this shakes out the next couple weeks. What seems pretty certain is that the warm spell this weekend will be brief before that front brings things back to colder weather in the interim. Then of course the whole question is where to go from there. It does seem that all the major teleconnections for now are forecasted to back off on their magnitudes (AO coming toward positive, PNA going neutral to slightly positive, NAO somewhat less negative) which argues for at least a somewhat more zonal/progressive pattern and hence the possibility for the west to east tracking systems.

Whether or not this all shakes out as it looks now is def another story. I have been amazed by the persistance and strength of the -NAO/AO so far this season and thats something that of course goes back to last winter. As the La-Nina signal finally begins to make itself known this is likely something that is going to be pretty important. If the NAO/AO completely breaks down and reverses, then we would likely be at the mercy of the active pac jet and southeast ridge. But if it persists, the blocking could be adequate with an ok PNA to keep the eastern heights low enough to allow for some decent snow chances storm track-wise down the road.

All in all, its tough not to be bummed about the lack of snow in this region so far this winter. For me personally, watching a major snowstorm yank just to the east is worse than having a GLC. But I eventually got past that and sucked into watching last nights storm just pound away at the megalopolis. In the grand scheme of things, the classic major I-95/coastal snowstorm (much less a true blizzard) is not something that happens everyday in years that are supposed to support such things. The fact that one managed to occur during a year with a moderately strong la nina is pretty insane, and is probably a testament to that persistent blocking pattern in the north Atlantic. Take Philly for example, who managed about a foot.. via NWS Mount Holly:

The rest of that linked disco was a great read and there were a couple other points in there that I thought were very interesting. My point in all this? One should keep their heads up as it is early in the winter and like last year, it is one that has the potential to be another nontraditional one with respect to general expectations.

The section from the NWS is really interesting. I suppose it has something to do with a -AO, -NAO and a big hurricane season in the atlantic providing the magnet for the cold.

[Voyager]

All in all, its tough not to be bummed about the lack of snow in this region so far this winter. For me personally, watching a major snowstorm yank just to the east is worse than having a GLC.

I mentioned this to another poster in a PM last night. I have also found that being on the warm side of a Lakes Cutter is much easier to take then being on or outside the fringe of an historical Nor'easter.

[sauss06]

The winds were so strong here in Harrisburg today a freight train crossing the Rockville Bridge had two cars blown off track and onto the rover.

Don't hear that everyday.

I'm pretty certain, the gust that knocked them over, is the same gust that while on the way home from work yesterday, just as i was crossing the george wade bridge, pushed my Tahoe from the 1st lane to the 2nd and almost into the 3rd! Thank god there was no other vehicles beside me. I was only home for a short time when i heard about the rail cars on the scanner

[JamieOber]

The winds were so strong here in Harrisburg today a freight train crossing the Rockville Bridge had two cars blown off track and onto the rover.

Don't hear that everyday.

Wow: http://www.abc27.com/Global/story.asp?S=13747222

That's amazing stuff. I don't recall ever hearing anything like that. Wonder how strong the gust was?

[sauss06]

Wow: http://www.abc27.com....asp?S=13747222

That's amazing stuff. I don't recall ever hearing anything like that. Wonder how strong the gust was?

Jamie,

i'm not sure, but it was big time. See my post above. i also spoke with a couple co-workers who also were traveling home on the GWB, . One said that it blew his F250 from the 1st to the 3rd lane and that the TT in front of him, was blown all over the highway that he though it was going to tip. This is all about the time of the rockville incident.

[canderson]

Three tractor-trailers were blown over around the same time too (one on 81 in Newville and two on 322). I'd guess that gust had to have been at least 60 to lift those cars up and over the bridge.

[hckyplayer8]

Could use a nice GLC to wash the crap off the roads from the non boxing day storm IMBY. 20 tons of salt (looks like I'm still traveling on a gravel road) for a little dusting of snow.

[CarlislePaWx]

Hi Everyone!

I've been on the past few weeks lurking. My two sisters who live in Morris County, NJ both got two feet of snow from the blizzard. That's where I grew up and lived until I moved out here in 2000. This is yet another storm that has destroyed them while virtually giving us here nothing. Recent events like this are Jan 2005 and Jan or Feb? 2006. Oh well, I guess our turn will come eventually. One neat thing about the blizzard was that it occurred on the 53rd anniversary of what was until 2006 NYC's all-time single snowfall. On December 26, 1947 NYC (and much of the east coast) saw a storm akin to this past storm leaving Central Park with 26". That record stood until 2006, if you trust the measurements taken for that storm.

I thought I'd chime in to say that today's 12z run of the GFS shows a secondary wave forming on the cold front coming through this weekend that ends up giving us a couple of inches. This is the first such run to hint at this possiblility so I have no idea if it will disappear at 18z, but at least something to watch. No one seems interested in it on the main board. I guess they are all burned out by the blizzard, lol.

See you all later....

---Stephen

[sauss06]

Hi Everyone!

I've been on the past few weeks lurking. My two sisters who live in Morris County, NJ both got two feet of snow from the blizzard. That's where I grew up and lived until I moved out here in 2000. This is yet another storm that has destroyed them while virtually giving us here nothing. Recent events like this are Jan 2005 and Jan or Feb? 2006. Oh well, I guess our turn will come eventually. One neat thing about the blizzard was that it occurred on the 53rd anniversary of what was until 2006 NYC's all-time single snowfall. On December 26, 1947 NYC (and much of the east coast) saw a storm akin to this past storm leaving Central Park with 26". That record stood until 2006, if you trust the measurements taken for that storm.

I thought I'd chime in to say that today's 12z run of the GFS shows a secondary wave forming on the cold front coming through this weekend that ends up giving us a couple of inches. This is the first such run to hint at this possiblility so I have no idea if it will disappear at 18z, but at least something to watch. No one seems interested in it on the main board. I guess they are all burned out by the blizzard, lol.

See you all later....

---Stephen

I was wondering where you have been. Good to see you and Happy Holidays!

[Wmsptwx]

I'm burned out lol