canderson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 CTP updated its Harrisburg grid for 1-3" Thursday night. I can't tell you how excited I'd be for an inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 CTP updated its Harrisburg grid for 1-3" Thursday night. I can't tell you how excited I'd be for an inch of snow! I think you'll see an inch or two, with higher amounts to your north near I-80 and also back my way. This was never a big storm for us, just a nice little snow event. Tues-Wed still look interesting, and so does next weekend. Lots on the table over the next two weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yup, at least this pattern isn't boring! But I now see CTP cut us back to less than 1". Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here we go my friends.... my model of choice for tonight: Looks very reasonable with the nao going briefly positive and a nice closed low cruising in from the west. This should have no problem riding up the coast with some ridging in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DT's first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DT's first guess reasonable for our area over 48 hours. the higher amounts of course on the higher elev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here we go my friends.... my model of choice for tonight: Looks very reasonable with the nao going briefly positive and a nice closed low cruising in from the west. This should have no problem riding up the coast with some ridging in place. Yea i've been waiting for the modelling to begin their return back to what they had a couple days ago. GFS will probably gets this solution back eventually too. I feel this miller B scenario ends up being how this event pans out ultimately given the interaction of the shortwaves out west. It's what the GFS and GGEM had previously before they stomped out the soutthwestern sw and associated wave out to sea too far southeast. Fortunately it appears there's still the blocking over the top in canada that should allow the storm to evolve in the manner the GGEM has if the shortwaves end up interacting as depicted there...cuz otherwise we'd prolly be talking about a cutting scenario instead of the nice trajectory (for CPA) the 500 low takes. Like the chances of this giving central PA a good solid snowfall at this stage in the game. Onto the Euro we go here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea i've been waiting for the modelling to begin their return back to what they had a couple days ago. GFS will probably gets this solution back eventually too. I feel this miller B scenario ends up being how this event pans out ultimately given the interaction of the shortwaves out west. It's what the GFS and GGEM had previously before they stomped out the soutthwestern sw and associated wave out to sea too far southeast. Fortunately it appears there's still the blocking over the top in canada that should allow the storm to evolve in the manner the GGEM has if the shortwaves end up interacting as depicted there...cuz otherwise we'd prolly be talking about a cutting scenario instead of the nice trajectory (for CPA) the 500 low takes. Like the chances of this giving central PA a good solid snowfall at this stage in the game. Onto the Euro we go here shortly. I would be very surprised if it showed a wildly suppressed storm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I would be very surprised if it showed a wildly suppressed storm tonight. haha apparently thats what its doing for the 0z run this eve, albeit a bit better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 haha apparently thats what its doing for the 0z run this eve, albeit a bit better than 12z. That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction. I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps. But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction. I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps. But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) At least there will be some fun and games to deal with about this time tomorrow with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm starting to get amped up a little for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction. I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps. But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) At least there will be some fun and games to deal with about this time tomorrow with the first system. Can I be like the people who used to email me when I was the marketing communications manager at AccuWx and think you guys control the weather? In other words, I'd like to order the 06Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm starting to get amped up a little for next week Stoooopid crazy, lol: http://www.nco.ncep....cp_m_loop.shtml I will add, yeah, like it would happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Stoooopid crazy, lol: http://www.nco.ncep....cp_m_loop.shtml I will add, yeah, like it would happen like that. That's a great run for us weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can I be like the people who used to email me when I was the marketing communications manager at AccuWx and think you guys control the weather? In other words, I'd like to order the 06Z GFS? I'll have what you're having.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'll have what you're having.... might as well pour me some of that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Finally a pattern that favors good storm track for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where do I sign for THAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 On the iPhone so can't see the 06gfs - what type of heaven does it show? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 On the iPhone so can't see the 06gfs - what type of heaven does it show? lol Not much for our area, most of the snow is 95 and east. BUT...the GFS has been trending west ever since yesterday 12z run! Today's 12z run should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm starting to get amped up a little for next week Hey, check out this map. You'll love it - just look where that hole is located! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey, check out this map. You'll love it - just look where that hole is located! This is ok. It was never a big event for us. Just some squalls and light accums. Next week the storm machine starts up. Let's see what the 12z GEM and Euro have. The GFS seems to be in it's progressive/too fast bias mode. But we shall see. Still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh, yah, I'm aware. It's just funny that in tiny non-impact events we are our own little snowhole. Excited to see what happens in the next few days for the midweek gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 canderson, There are times when these squall lines surprise with an inch or two that comes in a roaring 30 minutes. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh, yah, I'm aware. It's just funny that in tiny non-impact events we are our own little snowhole. Excited to see what happens in the next few days for the midweek gig. that hole is not us is it, That's lancaster county i think and the other hole is North Western Cumberland / south western Perry County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 that hole, is not us. That's lancaster county isn't it More specifically, almost directly over Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 canderson, There are times when these squall lines surprise with an inch or two that comes in a roaring 30 minutes. Will be interesting to watch. yeah and the timing could be right at rush hour am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL..don't worry guys, I'm in the 4-6 inch area of that map and guarantee we have similar totals when the flakes stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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