Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow. I was to busy looking ahead to next week. As was I, and now I'm hearing that if this little storm forms like modeled tomorrow, it would have a negative impact on the bigger storm threat next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 1.5" total here. First measurable of the season here. Enough that I'll get to shovel a bit. Currently 30.4°. So I'm out of the loop....more snow in the next 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1.5" total here. First measurable of the season here. Enough that I'll get to shovel a bit. Currently 30.4°. So I'm out of the loop....more snow in the next 36 hours? Maybe, though when I posted the NAM image above, I was a bit hesitant to do so due to the NAM's tendincy to overdue QPF. Certainly could at least be some small accumulations tomorrow depending on snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Once again the schools in Lebanon County display a lack of concern for their students. No two hour delay's. Not one. Outside of major routes like 22 and I78, everything I have seen is still covered. Don't know what the city looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Once again the schools in Lebanon County display a lack of concern for their students. No two hour delay's. Not one. Outside of major routes like 22 and I78, everything I have seen is still covered. Don't know what the city looks like. Considering road conditions at the typical busing times around here, there likely should have been delays...our roads were bad then, but alright by 9AM or so. Total liquid for the snow was 0.08", making for almost 19:1 ratios.....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Starting to wonder if I get more snow tomorrow than I do next week. Not trying to jump on individual model runs, but I'm not seeing anything to be excited about for next week unless you head from say Richmond south. Lots of players, not looking like they team up as of now to do much around here. Plenty of time for things to change, though. Even Elliott Abrams this morning more or less admitted that this may be primarily an I95 south/east storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Starting to wonder if I get more snow tomorrow than I do next week. Not trying to jump on individual model runs, but I'm not seeing anything to be excited about for next week unless you head from say Richmond south. Lots of players, not looking like they team up as of now to do much around here. Plenty of time for things to change, though. Even Elliott Abrams this morning more or less admitted that this may be primarily an I95 south/east storm next week. i'm not bailin out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i'm not bailin out yet I'm not either, I never gave up on the day after Christmas storm. However, I think the specuation of this being some sort of mega storm as portrayed by some outlets (like the one in State College) isn't going to happen. Main concern I have is that this thing remains a strung out P.O.S. that goes well south and east of us and gives us little Q.P.F. It seems to me that there is growing model consensus that this could happen, though the GFS ensembles continue to come in stronger/west than the operational run for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So why do we have a 994 low over SW VA and nothing like that on the models. I see good thing good things for tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is way west of the operational. Don't mean to get anyone's hopes ups, but the Susq Valkey and App ridge are bullseye from what earthbound says. Can't emwait to hear what our resident nets say about thus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am probably full of poo and the pros here can tell me just how much, but the 18Z NAM looks better with next week's storm than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not either, I never gave up on the day after Christmas storm. However, I think the specuation of this being some sort of mega storm as portrayed by some outlets (like the one in State College) isn't going to happen. Main concern I have is that this thing remains a strung out P.O.S. that goes well south and east of us and gives us little Q.P.F. It seems to me that there is growing model consensus that this could happen, though the GFS ensembles continue to come in stronger/west than the operational run for whatever reason. Euro ensembles today showed some monster hits and big time QPF even extending back to you guys. GFS ensembles are also still quite powerful with the low, and the rest of the models in general are also stronger than the OP GFS. GFS is likely in its error mode that typically corrects 48-72 hours in. PA is still very much in the game for a major event, particularly with a coast hugger or overrunning from a primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The storm, says Wes, really can't become a Miller A. Don't know details on why, but if this isn't a coastal bomb we are in good shape with the ridge sitting in western Ohio methonks. Still lots of time but signs keep getting stronger. Major major props to our posting mets who have called this evolution since late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles today showed some monster hits and big time QPF even extending back to you guys. GFS ensembles are also still quite powerful with the low, and the rest of the models in general are also stronger than the OP GFS. GFS is likely in its error mode that typically corrects 48-72 hours in. PA is still very much in the game for a major event, particularly with a coast hugger or overrunning from a primary. Question is how far west in Pa? we will find out in the next few days but hoping west central pa can get in on some of the action. it always seems that my area(clearfield) is always 1 county too far west with coastals to get the big snows. state college -altoona obviously do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is way west of the operational. Don't mean to get anyone's hopes ups, but the Susq Valkey and App ridge are bullseye from what earthbound says. Can't emwait to hear what our resident nets say about thus. Its pretty interesting that ensembles remain nw of the op, especially the gfs one. Also noteworthy is the fact that todays 12 UKMET and Nogaps (can't believe i'm mentioning this one) continue to be northwest of the models and both have the evolution like last night's 0z GGEM with a primary reflection west and a developing coastal. Nogaps fwiw stomps all of PA. These are typically progressive models, and one of the nyc/phl mets a few nights ago brought up an interesting point saying the UKMET has been bad with storms this season (way east) because of it being progressive by nature coupled with the faster la nina influenced pac jet this year. Wish I could find that post. At any rate, I still think theres a good chance these models come back toward this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey, biggest snow of the season in Maytown, a solid 1/2"! Roads were okay for the most part, though some woman STOPPED halfway up Chickie's hill this morning to talk on her cell phone. It didn't appear as if anything was wrong, but perhaps there was a good reason. Nonetheless, everyone downstream from her then started spinning and sliding, including me. Same here neighbor, maybe well break that overnight. Once you stop on Chickies Hill its all over no matter how little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its pretty interesting that ensembles remain nw of the op, especially the gfs one. Also noteworthy is the fact that todays 12 UKMET and Nogaps (can't believe i'm mentioning this one) continue to be northwest of the models and both have the evolution like last night's 0z GGEM with a primary reflection west and a developing coastal. Nogaps fwiw stomps all of PA. These are typically progressive models, and one of the nyc/phl mets a few nights ago brought up an interesting point saying the UKMET has been bad with storms this season (way east) because of it being progressive by nature coupled with the faster la nina influenced pac jet this year. Wish I could find that post. At any rate, I still think theres a good chance these models come back toward this scenario. Awesome, awesome post. Hey go check out the 18z DGEX. According to it, we need to load up on bulldozers now it looks like. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Trip down memory lane: 2/15/07 in State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Dang look at that squall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Trip down memory lane: 2/15/07 in State College That winter had a great second half, man. Loved it. How did you do up there in the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, saying around MDT we might see 3" tonight/tomorrow. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...TURNING WEST AND INCREASING TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNRISE. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT... WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...TURNING WEST AND INCREASING TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNRISE. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT... WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Here are the counties for the above: PAZ017>019-025>028-034-050-056>059-063>066-081215-/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0002.110108T0800Z-110108T2300Z/CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 0z GFS appears to be bad news for us. It keeps trending that upper low more and more north. I fear if it continues much more we'll miss out on the snows and they'll be up in New England. I hope the GFS is just a bit screwy right now, other models don't quite have this issue I don't believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light snow 25 deg. Fresh dusting. Bring on the heavy snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Heavy snow with this squall. .6" and climbing fast. Vis .1 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just got home...where did all this snow come from? it coming down at a good clip right now...been snowing for the last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Man, fell asleep around 330 to about half an inch and just woke up to see that a heavy band has delivered over 3 more inches of powder snow in about 2 hours time.. bringing the total to just a shade under 3.75". Nothin like covering the advisory before daybreak! Back to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like we picked up 2 new inches so far(didnt measure but i have a security camera on my snowboard ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Man, fell asleep around 330 to about half an inch and just woke up to see that a heavy band has delivered over 3 more inches of powder snow in about 2 hours time.. bringing the total to just a shade under 3.75". Nothin like covering the advisory before daybreak! Back to bed now. still snowing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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