Storm Clouds Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Apparently 18z models are west. Mass suicides in the mid Atlantic forum. LOL I just read through that forum! It is trending west! That is good! What are they thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That forum is insufferable. Always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What do you think about next week? Perhaps we finally see the grass covered? [/quot It will be cloudy or snow on Monday I'll get excited or bumed out. This is not the year of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Back in State College for the most of the rest of winter. Currently 17° here with some light snow, enough to coat things again. Solid 2-3" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM is west according to the mid Atlantic thread and east in the PHL thread. LOL Im on thr iPhone so can't tell myself but I believe it is a touch right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM is west according to the mid Atlantic thread and east in the PHL thread. LOL Im on thr iPhone so can't tell myself but I believe it is a touch right. Both are correct....primary now goes to Lake Erie, coastal ( what little there is of it) is further off the coast. Ugly solution all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Actually, the coastal is west, but develops a bit too late for us. On this model of this run, congrats New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Both are correct....primary now goes to Lake Erie, coastal ( what little there is of it) is further off the coast. Ugly solution all around. Coastal actually looks a bit closer to the coast, but it is much weaker than 18z because the transfer of energy is slower. The track of the coastal doesn't look too bad for us, but the primary would probably be too strong (because of the late transfer) as it passes west, so most of us would get dry-slotted. 0z NAM QPF reflects that possibility nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Coastal actually looks a bit closer to the coast, but it is much weaker than 18z because the transfer of energy is slower. The track of the coastal doesn't look too bad for us, but the primary would probably be too strong (because of the late transfer) as it passes west, so most of us would get dry-slotted. 0z NAM QPF reflects that possibility nicely. It is the NAM at the end of its range, which is some consolation, but yeah...in between the late transferring primary and the coastal is not a place I particularly want to be in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Both are correct....primary now goes to Lake Erie, coastal ( what little there is of it) is further off the coast. Ugly solution all around. Not to mention the closed 850mb low making it all the way up to NW PA. Sleet, anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM gives my parents 5" of snow and probably 1" of ice in NE Texas. That is very bad as they live in a heavy forested area and every utility is above ground. Last storm like this I remember was over new years 2000 and we ended up without power for 11 days. Severe tree damage to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 We're at 1000 posts for this thread...dunno if we're supposed to make a new one? Might as well since this one was started November 11th. I(or anyone else who wants to) can start a new one now or after the Tuesday event I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well with QPFs amounts of .25" to .50" for practically the entire state of PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some advisories up with a widespread 2-5" event. I honestly don't see many areas over 6" unless your towards Eastern PA. It's a shame really, we haven't experienced a 12 inch storm in over 3 years up here, while places along I-95 have seen at least 6 during this time, they need to share!!. This area can be pinned with the williamsport screw zone sense we are to far from LE and Nor' Easters . Thoughts on the upcoming storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well with QPFs amounts of .25" to .50" for practically the entire state of PA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some advisories up with a widespread 2-5" event. I honestly don't see many areas over 6" unless your towards Eastern PA. It's a shame really, we haven't experienced a 12 inch storm in over 3 years up here, while places along I-95 have seen at least 6 during this time, they need to share!!. This area can be pinned with the williamsport screw zone sense we are to far from LE and Nor' Easters . Thoughts on the upcoming storm?? Unless something changes, the coastal will not be much of a factor in this setup for us, although it will prevent warm air from flooding in. Despite the primary staying fairly strong into Ohio, the models keep temps at all levels at least a couple of degrees below freezing at all levels, so mixing does not look like an issue. To me, it looks like we'll just really need to cash in on the overrunning from the primary low and hope we don't get dryslotted when the transfer of energy occurs. That being said, you guys over by Harrisburg, York and Lancaster should keep an eye on the coastal. It might be close enough to enhance the snow a bit as it passes by, especially if it tracks closer to the coast than currently forecast. Overrunning does tend to be one of our better setups for widespread snowfall in Central PA, and it's a lot more certain than relying on the track of a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Unless something changes, the coastal will not be much of a factor in this setup for us, although it will prevent warm air from flooding in. Despite the primary staying fairly strong into Ohio, the models keep temps at all levels at least a couple of degrees below freezing at all levels, so mixing does not look like an issue. To me, it looks like we'll just really need to cash in on the overrunning from the primary low and hope we don't get dryslotted when the transfer of energy occurs. That being said, you guys over by Harrisburg, York and Lancaster should keep an eye on the coastal. It might be close enough to enhance the snow a bit as it passes by, especially if it tracks closer to the coast than currently forecast. Overrunning does tends to be one of our better setups for widespread snowfall in Central PA, and it's a lot more certain than relying on the track of a coastal storm. Thanks for the analysis. I agree with the NWS CTP saying that this is a high-advisory/low-warning type event. What are your thoughts on ratios? They are going with higher ratios, like 15-1. What are your thoughts on ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well here is what the US looks like this morning. We will have to see how it pans out over the next couple days. http://www.intellica...?region=default Jamie NWS is going with 15-1 LIKELIHOOD OF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN .25" AND .50" QPF FOR MOST OF MY FCST AREA. Was just reading their discussion. Brain Maybe things are looking up for some of us. We have had some big storms with overrunning. Feb 2 of 96 Dec 5 of 02 Jan 17 of 2000 Are just a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks for the analysis. I agree with the NWS CTP saying that this is a high-advisory/low-warning type event. What are your thoughts on ratios? They are going with higher ratios, like 15-1. What are your thoughts on ratios? I think 15-1 is reasonable. We won't see the 25-1 ratios we've seen at times the past few days, but the temperatures remain pretty cold throughout the lower atmosphere, so I would anticipate a fairly dry snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think 15-1 is reasonable. We won't see the 25-1 ratios we've seen at times the past few days, but the temperatures remain pretty cold throughout the lower atmosphere, so I would anticipate a fairly dry snow. Looking at BUFKIT for the 12z NAM, it's showing 15-16:1 ratios and just over 5" for UNV. EDIT: 12z GFS is extremely similar, around 15:1 and just over 5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like the fact that our 3-6 inch storm at least looks certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll take this storm any time. It'll be fin to watch it pan out. My eyes are in NE Twxas this afternoon, gonna get nasty for my parents' area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z Euro all good. Boosts precip a bit all the way west (sheiks further west). It kills NYC and coastal NJ yet again with 1"+. Let's get this verified and we will all be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is what I got for a first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you think there will be considerable dry slot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you think there will be considerable dry slot issues. Well it's more that western pa will get upslope, lake effect and more from primary, eastern gets more from the secondary, and central gets get screwed. Pretty much the usual. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you think there will be considerable dry slot issues. Henry Margusity says the same thing...1" to 3" for most of PA, except the far west and far, far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 donsutherland1 posted this Some 12z Euro qpf amounts for PA: ABE: 0.45"-0.50" AVP: 0.40"-0.45" IPT: 0.30"-0.40" MDT: 0.30"-0.40" PHL: 0.50"-0.55" PIT: 0.35"-0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well it's more that western pa will get upslope, lake effect and more from primary, eastern gets more from the secondary, and central gets get screwed. Pretty much the usual. lol Henry Margusity says the same thing...1" to 3" for most of PA, except the far west and far, far east. Unreal how things have been with regard to snowstorms lately. Climatology be damned, individual seasonal trends are the players lately. It seems that once a track and pattern sets up, it locks in and the same areas get hammered storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18Z GFS is a good improvement. Coastal gets going quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My parents have 6" of snow so far today. A bot of sleet but nothing catastrophic. Funny NE Texas has more snow in one day than most all of C PA has had all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 My parents have 6" of snow so far today. A bot of sleet but nothing catastrophic. Funny NE Texas has more snow in one day than most all of C PA has had all winter! Cool. So they avoided any freezing rain issues there? Currently 23° here with light snow. Had enough again this evening to coat things that melted off during the day...including the somewhat hazardous parking lot at my apartment complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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