Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[afvet89]

I think here in the middle Susq. they will put us in a WWA. Not sure if they will make the jump to a warning in the lower Susq. or give them a WWA too.

[PSU8315]

If CTP puts any warnings out, I can only see Lancaster and maybe York counties fitting the bill. I would be surprised to see anything more than an advisory for the others.

Here's what I had on-air tonight. The separate upslope snows in the Laurels made this the most interesting map I've drawn this season....

[MAG5035]

If CTP puts any warnings out, I can only see Lancaster and maybe York counties fitting the bill. I would be surprised to see anything more than an advisory for the others.

Here's what I had on-air tonight. The separate upslope snows in the Laurels made this the most interesting map I've drawn this season....

Considering the last couple model runs backing off on what QPF they had backing into Central PA and the look of the radar down south tonight, I have to say (sadly) I highly agree with the map as well as with your take on headline placement. It def has the look of a good shaft job for the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor with the combination of subsidence just away from the storm and the upslope snows not getting off the Alleghenies. If this storm deepens a good bit more rapidly than modeled, this may pull the low and associated the shield west enough to perhaps create an opportunity to close that gap between 1-3 zones. Not looking likely though at this stage in the game.

[PSU8315]

Considering the last couple model runs backing off on what QPF they had backing into Central PA and the look of the radar down south tonight, I have to say (sadly) I highly agree with the map as well as with your take on headline placement. It def has the look of a good shaft job for the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor with the combination of subsidence just away from the storm and the upslope snows not getting off the Alleghenies. If this storm deepens a good bit more rapidly than modeled, this may pull the low and associated the shield west enough to perhaps create an opportunity to close that gap between 1-3 zones. Not looking likely though at this stage in the game.

And the NAM has found that same shaft zone and that gap seems to be widening. This run (and the SREFs) both went a little more to the east. There are still a few SREF members that pound us -- they still have yet to catch on and are throwing off the mean numbers for most of us to the high side.

[JamieOber]

FWIW, SPC just posted this:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

[hckyplayer8]

I can already see it...looking like I'm a county too far West. After last winter, back to normal.

[PennMan]

I can already see it...looking like I'm a county too far West. After last winter, back to normal.

Radar echoes are expanding towards us nicely and the low is just getting going and making the turn more towards the north. I think you and me are going to be just far enough east to get into some decent snow this evening. I would not want to be in York or Harrisburg, however.

[Rick G]

Radar echoes are expanding towards us nicely and the low is just getting going and making the turn more towards the north. I think you and me are going to be just far enough east to get into some decent snow this evening. I would not want to be in York or Harrisburg, however.

Nothing yet in Wilkes-Barre. I can see down the valley for about 10 miles from from my house and nothing yet.

[canderson]

I still think Harrisburg sees 4".

[Blizzard92]

Flurries falling here 10mi northeast of Harrisburg...

[hckyplayer8]

Radar echoes are expanding towards us nicely and the low is just getting going and making the turn more towards the north. I think you and me are going to be just far enough east to get into some decent snow this evening. I would not want to be in York or Harrisburg, however.

I should have been more specific. When I mean't too far West I mean't for warning level snow. I posted on the Accwx board I thought 2-4 West of 343, 5-8 East and maybe a sliver of the county East of 501 may be able to push the foot marker depending how the meso's set up. The usual more SE less NW scenario. I was pretty excited when the 0z ARW showed another shift West with the current banding thats hitting I95...but not to be.

I still think Harrisburg sees 4".

Perhaps . Myself, I would go low end of my 2-4 for them.

[canderson]

If we get 3" I'll call this a definite success. Have a feeling thisll be our lone snow storm of this season.

Parts of NJ are just getting blitzes. Good for them, I'm not like others who hate areas that get snow.

[canderson]

Flurries falling here 10mi northeast of Harrisburg...

I've always meant to ask - are you up near Halifax?

[canderson]

Winds just started to pick up on Harrisburg.

[Scummyratguy]

Here in york i would say we just graduated from light snow to snow. roads and sidewalks getting white... the way the radar is showing the precip shield rotating, we may just squeak this one out with your 2-4

[Scummyratguy]

if i had never seen that gfs model run with 1" liquid qpf, i would look outside and be happy, looks like a bonafide storm with wind whipped snow

[hckyplayer8]

WOW

[AlexP]

Still waiting for the first flakes in midtown Harrisburg. It's oh so close. I've given up on the idea of any significant accumulations here, but it would be nice to get an inch or two out of it.

[Scummyratguy]

if you look at sterling va radar.... would you say the circulation center is passing over salisbury md? just would be nice to have another set of eyes look at that.

[canderson]

Be patient. MDT was never going Yo see heavier stuff before sundown. BTW I live in midtown too - let's help each other clear roads since Linda can't.

[AlexP]

Be patient. MDT was never going Yo see heavier stuff before sundown. BTW I live in midtown too - let's help each other clear roads since Linda can't.

my shovel is ready!

my girlfriend down in Hanover is reporting light snow.

[canderson]

I'm always down for a beer during a snowstorm (ir on a 80 degree June day for that natter)!

[jeffb1124]

my shovel is ready!

my girlfriend down in Hanover is reporting light snow.

I've had light snow here in Middletown for about the past 30 minutes. A very light coating on my sidewalk which is getting moved around by the breeze.

NWS is now calling for 2-3 inches around here. So in the past 24 hours we've gone from a potential 6-10 then down to 3-6, now 2-3. Going the wrong direction!

Oh well, got to enjoy what we do get.

[canderson]

Hey that's no fair! No snow here 6 miles away!

[PennMan]

I should have been more specific. When I mean't too far West I mean't for warning level snow. I posted on the Accwx board I thought 2-4 West of 343, 5-8 East and maybe a sliver of the county East of 501 may be able to push the foot marker depending how the meso's set up. The usual more SE less NW scenario. I was pretty excited when the 0z ARW showed another shift West with the current banding thats hitting I95...but not to be.

Perhaps . Myself, I would go low end of my 2-4 for them.

Yeah, I'd go 3-6 from west to east across Lebanon County...6" might be generous at this point. We really need every minute of moderate snow possible to see those numbers and I'm not sure it's going to happen. Does seem to be filling in better in Berks County at the moment, which is good to see.

[Bubbler86]

Up in PA for the week...light snow falling just outside Gettysburg. Apparently it snowed today in Jax. Florida so I may be in the wrong spot for the best snows...should have stayed in Fla.

[Logan11]

WB North It'll be like old times when you gave us the snow obs from Carlisle.

Up in PA for the week...light snow falling just outside Gettysburg. Apparently it snowed today in Jax. Florida so I may be in the wrong spot for the best snows...should have stayed in Fla.

[dcfox1]

I didn't expect a lot here but I'm more disappointed in the eagles game, I was looking forward to watching it in the snow. What happened to the NFL

[canderson]

Harrisburg is an island: snowing in Hersher, Middletown, Mechanicsburg, Halifax yet not in the middle of those places.

Maybe we will only get an inch if wind-whipped snow.

[Rick G]

snowing in WIlkes-Barre right now. coming down hard.