afvet89 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 would luv to see a more westward trend.everybody just perked up tho after the new GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffb1124 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On my phone and can't see the maps well. What does the GFS say for the Harrisburg area? And does it still give C PA a little light snow Christmas evening? Sorry for the questions, just can't see on the phone! No snow on Christmas in the Harrisburg area. For the Sunday-Monday storm, around a half inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffb1124 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So if the 18z GFS model is to be believed Central PA will got some snow after all with the Sunday-Monday Storm. Harrisburg is pretty close to the .75 - 1 inch precip line. Can't wait for the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There were several initialization errors on the 12z GFS, which may have carried into the 18z run. 00z should help clear the fog a little bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 TORCH a comin guys I wouldn't be surprised if this area picked up 2-4 inches of rain upcoming next week. I guess we won't see any big snow chances until at least Jan 4th GFS and NWS CTP are sort of yawn about this "torch" - LARGE RIDGEPOTENTIALLY FORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ANDSOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT THE 50S ON SAT.HOWEVER...ANY POSSIBLE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT-LIVED IF ONE STARESINTO THE CRYSTAL BALL OF THE 240-360 HR GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPANOMALIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...this storm will come just far enough west to make us jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...this storm will come just far enough west to make us jealous im over it...time for the next threat next year. also Merry Christmas to everyone on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im over it...time for the next threat next year. also Merry Christmas to everyone on here Thanks man, MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE! And here's to Clippers, and West to East storms galore in the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! Harrisburg might pull 2-4 inches outta this gig after all. I'll take that any day. This storm has been absolutely off-the-wall crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z GFS gives Harrisburg 6". And it has support from it's ensemble and a variet of other models not named NAM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man what a wild ride the models have been the last couple days. This euro run coming up currently should be quite interesting as the 0z GFS has now trended to a version of this storm similar to what was seen on the European a couple days ago. Potentially a X-mas miracle in the making for some? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How bout that - 0z Euro jumps and matches the GFS nearly perfectly. Itd be awesome if we got 4-6 out of this. The coast is gonna see some wicked blizzard conditions. 2 feet of snow and 75 kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How bout that - 0z Euro jumps and matches the GFS nearly perfectly. Itd be awesome if we got 4-6 out of this. The coast is gonna see some wicked blizzard conditions. 2 feet of snow and 75 kt winds. I dont know man, I hear this somehow only gives MDT .25 and us .15....who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, I'd bet MDT to get 2" but ratios should be Hugh. And maybe it can keep coming west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont know man, I hear this somehow only gives MDT .25 and us .15....who knows though. Williamsport was in the .25-.5 range per Tombo's map as was MDT I believe, at least thats what he referred to that range as i believe. That's probablly also about the extent of the coastal's precip shield since the other lighter amounts are associated with the light snow/snow showers from the first wave of this later today. This has been a storm that has just REFUSED to be nailed down by models/NWS/HPC/everyone, so I would be careful betting on things as is. However, the consensus between the different models is at least a good bit more fitting of the <60-72hr range. Instead of the euro vs. most other models being offshore, we now have em all hitting at least the I-95 corridor. Could this shift west even further? perhaps. I still do not like the storm getting across the Fl peninsula before turning up, thus probably sharpening the east-west gradient of the snowfall. The euro is borderline obscenely sharp on QPF totals, whether or not thats right or wrong in the end. So just when you thought you could write this storm off, it comes back just enough to keep at least the eastern part of central PA interested and perhaps involved. Oh yea.. and Merry Christmas everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to everyone, and how about that 06 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks pretty good to me. As of 0Z GFS. I believe the 6Z run is a little better (more). http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to everyone, and how about that 06 GFS? Merry Christmas. And that run drops 12-16" easily down here...more like 18" in Reading. That would be unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What the heck is State College doing!?! Ar they asleep!?! They NEED to issue winter storm watches for south central PA to warn people...the latest trends are HUGE for us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 What the heck is State College doing!?! Ar they asleep!?! They NEED to issue winter storm watches for south central PA to warn people...the latest trends are HUGE for us!!! Maybe the data is infected and they are riding the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe the data is infected and they are riding the NAM? Winter storm watches have extended more west in MD, counties in MD to our SOUTHWEST have a winter storm watch! THEY NEED TO ISSUE ONE FOR US!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe the data is infected and they are riding the NAM? Yeah, since the 12z GFS was the first to sniff out the changes, if it turns out to be right on this one, maybe they should put infected data into the models more often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPFS COUPLED WITH EXPECTED 12:1 OR 14:1 SLR DOES GENERATE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK GUIDANCE PUTS LESS THAN 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SERN COS...TAPERING QUICKLY TO NIL AT HARRISBURG. THIS IS AGAIN WELL BELOW WARNING ACCUMS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES IN 12 HRS. MAIN THING TO HANG MY HAT ON THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WIND. THE NNW WINDS WILL CRANK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY. Hope he doesn't hang his hat outside. Could get covered with snow Merry Christmas Everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why say nil at MDT when latest guidance says otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NOT expecting anything, however MDT could get 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hope he doesn't hang his hat outside. Could get covered with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK GUIDANCE PUTS LESS THAN 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SERN COS... Perhaps they may be right, but it seems like HPC is in denial mode right now after the Euro debacle this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT puts MDT right on the 8" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what thread is DT's map in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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