Scarlet Pimpernel

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

We need one of these epic looks to finally produce....period. @brooklynwx99has been posting those good looks. He isn't wrong. They look optimistically promising. We just need one to produce. Maybe this is the year,  maybe not. Again, i am sorry for the comparison. I did think JB was a well respected met tho, but i am obviously wrong. Hopefully we can put it past us. If not, I do understand. I was out of line.

Hey no problem, like I said it's good of you to issue the apology.  I have mixed feelings about JB, I think he was well respected some time ago and that was deserved, but he devolves into anti-global warming BS and hyping every single damned thing, so that kills his credibility (to me, at least).  Or he'll try to claim he was right by changing the statistical goalposts, so to speak (like with stuff such as "March was the coldest month of the winter RELATIVE TO AVERAGES and I called it!!"  Sure, "relative to averages"...I can also say that July could be colder than January using that!).  Anyhow, I do agree with you on the frustration, it's very palpable, and I feel that way myself.  All I can do is just keep hoping that we'll land a couple of solid events, and perhaps a big dog (though I'm not "big dog hunting" unless one actually shows up!).  Sometimes though, the doom-and-gloom posting can get annoying in there, as I'm sure you'll agree!  One measure, so to speak, of how bad it's been...I like to take photos of every snow event we get, at least the decent to epic ones (advisory level to HECS).  The last set of snow-related photos I took was from March 2022, when we got a neat little advisory event around mid-month along with a nice cold blast.  Last year had NOTHING...and I think that's the only winter in which I literally took zero snow photos (because there was none?  LOL!!!...well, I got 0.5" on Feb. 1 last winter, that fell in the pre-dawn hours and was gone by 10AM).

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I appreciate his contributions too. Maybe I slung the JB thing in there too hastily? He is just an eternal optimist, and that's fine. I was just pointing out the obvious. And if I ruffled feathers, I am sorry . Wrong  post wrong place wrong time. After 2 years of ppl posting epic patterns on the ens means I finally lost my patience. I really didn't mean disrespect towards the man personally. I truly mean that.

I cannot speak for @brooklynwx99, but I'm sure the apology is welcome.  I for one appreciate you admitting that.  Gotta say, I think most of the scolding was due to the JB comparison!!!  LOL!!!  Nobody wants to be told they sound like him!!   I also appreciate the optimism, but JB tends to just overhype everything and anything...the red-taggers in here don't do that, even as they're trying to find something good when things suck.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

The long range thread is just a bunch of bi polar guys talking past each other. Who wants to be nurse Ratched and perform the lobotomy?

I'd rather have a bottle in front'o'me than a frontal lobotomy!  (Can't remember where I heard that from, but always thought it was funny!)

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i have no idea where that came from, but that accusation was so foul i had to respond lmao

To be honest, you had every right to respond as you did.  Being "compared" to JB is a real insult, in my opinion!

Browns looking almost as pathetic vs. the Bungles as the Semi-Noles did in the FSU-UGA Orange Bowl!  I guess their playoff seeding is set anyhow, so it's perhaps a meaningless game.

I've discovered a general rule concerning the medium range thread.  Perhaps this is obvious, but still.  It's all in whom I see posted last when I check, like who's avatar icon I see as the last poster in a thread...

If it's @Ji or @osfan24 or even @Heisy, especially if there are multiple posts in a row, then I know things have probably gone to hell in a handbasket and it's perhaps not worth looking much at that time.

If it's @psuhoffman, I know I'll need to set aside some reading time (a few hours!), but it's usually difficult to say initially whether there's bad or good news until reading!  But I still appreciate his analysis and input.

If it's @brooklynwx99, @MillvilleWx, @CAPE, @WxUSAF, or @Bob Chill, I can count on some good analysis as well, and likely fairly positive!

If it's @clskinsfan, I know we'll see the term "beatdown" at least once, so it's worth a look at what's going on even if it's for the more western crew!

If it's @stormtracker, I expect Jaws music!

If it's @H2O, I expect some good, funny memes dammit!

If it's @Weather Will, I'll need to clear my internet cache to allow for more images.

If it's @WxWatcher007, we'll see shots of the Reaper enjoying retirement, likely involving his skeleton crew sipping a few tropical drinks on the beach!!

If it's @Maestrobjwa, I expect something about Beethoven!

If it's @yoda, I expect several CVS receipt length copy/pastes of the latest warnings!

If it's at @ravensrule, well, nothing need be said!  I'll look for the comments that inspired the innuendo!!! 

And finally, if it's @Scarlet Pimpernel, I just ignore what the hell he has to say!!! 

I'm sure others can add to this checklist!!

Just now, Terpeast said:

Either way, glad to see a better looking op run at 7 days out. That’s when the ops start to hone in on a general synoptic look and progression 

Exactly.  I don't expect this to be a situation like the big storms (at least not now, maybe another time??), where every model has it for days on end because the setup is clear and obvious.  But...it's nice to see an increase in favorable setups for that time right after what looks to be a cutter next weekend.  Heck, the GFS has shown a decent looking event around the 16-17th somewhat consistently and I know the ensembles have hit that period as well.  And it's staying in that same time frame, not moving forward all the time.

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Much much better than last nights run…





.

A more horizontal avocado...perhaps a plantain? 

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Voice of Reason…..Avocados 

But those Squishable avocadoes are so...damned cute!!  (Yes, I have one!)

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that

What's 20mb and a few hundred miles among friends???

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As long as you let them score 10 for my parley 

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's one scary looking puppy!!! LOL!!!

Amazing how the rates picked up today as soon as the snow changed to rain!! 

Just now, yoda said:

Randy didn't, no, but there is a YouTube parody along the same lines with severe weather

That Hitler parody was a true work of art...hilarious!!!  (If something about Hitler can be considered amusing?  Like "The Producers"?).  Must have taken some work to add those subtitles to that scene.

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm looking for it... including the severe weather one 

He made a severe weather one as well??  Don't think I ever saw it, so yeah if you find that one it would be great!

27 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

can someone please re post Stromtracker's hitler video again. I need a laugh

As you wish (still had a link somewhere in my bookmarks!)...

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I don’t have enough tissues left in the box to wipe the tears of laughter…

I'll take that as a compliment!!

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Now, THAT'S CLASSIC! LMAO!!

I wrote that fine work of literature while drinking a nice Chardonnay!  (and let my inner PSU flow!) 

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

The SBFI Index is now in its negative phase. It’s a pretty sad look from just a few weeks ago. We need a winter storm beer pattern reshuffle. If only @psuhoffmanand @Jebmancould tell us how to turn this around, we could save the winter (but definitely not my liver) 

The problem is the base state of your beer fridge has changed such that the alcohol content isn't what it was years ago.  We cannot use beer analogs that we did in the past.  I don't even see the Laughing Cow cheese in there, and to me that's telling.  In all years that the SBFI was strongly positive, that cheese was in there.  I'm seriously concerned what this can mean for future parties at your house.  They just won't be the same.  That gap on the bottom shelf on the right near the Sprite, never would occur with all those fine IPAs on the shelf above!  In previous winters, we could expect the IPAs to overcome that.  But here we are.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we'll never drink beer again!  But those who don't care to read the next 6 paragraphs (not included) can just stop here and I'll leave them with an artificial beer buzz.  Those who care to remain in the reality based refrigerator, however, please read on...

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends. So you can drill down on a specific factor. The expanded pac Hadley cell. The IO and Western Pac warm pool. The warmer Gulf and Atlantic contribution to TNH.  The MC forcing issue. 
 

But if you pull back they all have a common thread!  

The Oliphant in the room?

29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What are you gonna do with your 0”? I think I’m gonna watch the Steelers and Ravens play

Build the world's smallest snowman??? 

42 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

There's a ticking time bomb in the long range thread lol

No kidding!  It goes from some decent discussion on how things could look pretty good the 2nd half of this month (and beyond?) to how everything just sucks and we're doomed no matter what.  Drives me insane (not that I had far to go, hahaha!).  There seems to be two lines of conversation in there...one talking about the upcoming few weeks, and another discussing how the longer term trends are all but unfavorable no matter what.  Personally, I'm just looking and hoping for some decent or better chances as this winter progresses...I understand the longer term tendencies but at this point does it matter whether or not we can "catch up to the long term snow normals?"  We all know how that's changed over time, but can't we just look at this winter in relative isolation and try to find some positive signs for decent snow, without relating it to the overall long term climo???

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That was funny.  Worth more than an emoji. Cutters…fuck yeah!  

"Breaking Away" is an excellent movie for sure!

36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ralph…you seem wise…what are we tracking in the LR? I saw red tagger said GFS made good changes.  It was the op run.  I see 3 cutters and a dry cold after.   

You mean THESE Cutters???  I count 4 of them... 

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

Should be "the DMV AREA" and then it all makes sense  

Both are S-L-O-W, regardless, if you want to get anywhere!!