Scarlet Pimpernel

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

You win the interwebs today, sir!!  LOL!!!

And that plot...just seems like a @ravensrule bat signal right there!

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because it’s still rushing. We probably don’t go left sustained cold until Feb 20 or later. 

Not sure if I totally understand what you're saying.  Both of those plots show the period after the Feb. 20 date you mention (they cover Feb. 22-Mar. 1).  I don't see what you mean by it's still "rushing" based on that.  Regardless, not going to fret over subtle changes in weeklies a month from now just yet.

48 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@psuhoffman is fringed ...only in the mid 60s where higher amounts are to his south!  But we have some room for the inevitable northward shift of higher values!

27 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I have known you since you were in diapers.... adult diapers that is. 

Get off my lawn, you damned trick-or-treaters!!!

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We all rely on guidance mostly, and frankly it's all subject to change esp beyond day 10. Things that were 'supposed' to occur at one point, a few days later might look quite different, more so when we are clearly moving out of what was a sustained pattern to something else. Models sometimes struggle with where exactly it goes going forward. In this case the volatility its mostly related to uncertainty with Nina induced forcing in the tropics. This sort of thing causes the mood in the LR thread to often resemble a sine wave lol.

You're correct, and that's all true.  Apologies if I sounded a bit bitter, but I'm sure we're all a bit frustrated.  When I take a step back, I really don't think we're done for this winter, but we cannot expect some epic 3 week period either.  I strongly feel we'll get one more good event whether it's later in February or first part of March.  Unfortunately this thread always goes through wide-ranging mood swings with damn near every model run as you imply (definitely a sine wave!!!).  I guess we'll see what happens, but some of these definitive statements based on MJO outlooks way out around 2 weeks should be taken with a grain of salt.  Not saying you do that, but too many focus on every single day's forecast.  Not just the MJO, but the Euro weeklies every day, etc.  I almost get whiplash in some of the ongoing discussion, LOL!!!  I mean, it was just last year that around this time (or a bit earlier) we were all ga-ga drooling over some epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies and long-range ensembles that was supposed to occur for much of February.  And that went to pot in almost no time once it got within 10 days.  Similarly, I recall a couple or so years ago the MJO forecast had us going through 7-8-1 at very high amplitude, the anticipation was palpable, and...nothing.  I don't remember if those forecasts changed or if there were other factors that simply overwhelmed it, but it doesn't matter.

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still normal to below normal surface temps there, and op and ens guidance are currently hinting at some wintry potential in the 6-10th window. Ultimately maybe the pattern goes to crap around D15, but something good might happen just before that.

 

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March?  Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases.  That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall.  Though maybe that thinking has changed now.

Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

How much for Short Pump? 

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did winter get uncancelled after being recancelled yesterday following the uncancelled recancel on Friday? It's hard keeping up with the posts in this thread.

This reminded me of Bilbo Baggins' cryptic comment at his birthday party in LOTR:

“I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.” 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

2013-14 was amazing simply because it was essentially wall-to-wall for the most part.  I do recall it getting a bit warmer around the end of January into early February, but even then I think we were already looking ahead.  That's the month that gave us our "mini-HECS" around mid-February...big thump of snow to some ice, then drizzle much of the day, followed by a burst of snow with the ULL later.  I was out in the middle of the night for a Jebwalk, it was just absolutely puking snow then.  We got a couple of more small events a bit later in the month, and then March was incredible for snow (and cold)!

2015 was kind of similar, but there wasn't much of anything until mid-February.  That February was a lot colder than 2014 (even brutally cold) especially from around Valentine's Day onward.  Got a couple or three good moderate snows.  That extended into early March when we got another solid event around the 5th after some ice a couple of days prior.  A very concentrated 4-5 week period of winter.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Happy Anniversay to those who celebrate. Can't believe it has been a quarter century!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

I remember watching the models 48 hours prior. I  believe we had the MRF, it's sister "high res" avn that went to 72(?), the ETA to 48, and the NGM. All models iirc had a low racing ENE off the GA/SC Coast. I remember particularly seeing the ETA the morning of the 24th had the low stronger, much stronger, but was still well ots. Then 12z on the 24th closer. Then next run closer and a coastal grazing.

No model I dont think had it until it happened. We were on mirc #neweather chat....me, randy iirc, Marcus, ian....we were watching the radar at 0z and saying it didn't match the models. And it was on!!

What a memorable event! Had around a foot where I'm at but we sleeted and dry slotted as it exploded and occluded.

I wasn't here for that storm (moved to the DC area in mid-2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about it.  Sounds like it was great, a true reverse-bust!!  I think that's when the Eta model was still fairly new, and something about the 18Z cycle the day before suddenly showed the mid-Atlantic and northeast getting hammered, when pretty much all other available guidance still had the low moving out to sea (or with little effect here).  I think the Eta actually had 4 cycles back then, not sure, but it was one of the later cycles the day before.  I also heard there were no warnings or anything until late, and people were watching the 11PM news the night before stunned that a major snowstorm was coming!

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

It's actually really not that bad in my opinion.  And it's not just 384-h fantasy stuff.  Just giving a cursory look.

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

I saw that!  Pretty unreal looking and there's some really cold air nearby to work with potentially.  Not just at the end of the run, but before then as well.

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd)  If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen

Groundhog Day!  We'll have to re-live it again and again and again until we get it right!

Just now, Fozz said:

Can you guys believe this is Florida?

 

Damn, I remember back in the day when Florida would measure "snow" in grams, not inches!!! 

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

Kyrie Irving called, he would like a word!  

33 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Just saw two 9" reports come in from Lafayette. Wild for them. Hell, that'd be wild for many of us these days. 

Trust me, @Ji would find a way to complain it's not enough!   (Just joking, all in fun!)

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Ditto -- really tired of coddling it. It's over -- they lost. On every conceivable metric possible. No that does not mean snow disappears. Transient regional responses mean that weird shit can happen, and should be *expected* to happen. As it turns out, warming the IO and N. Pac this rapidly has consequences downstream that may run counter to the global trend on a seasonal timeframe.

Thank you for this, and for stating it diplomatically.  I had some thoughts as well but refrained because I'd probably get too far into the "politics" of all that.  But on a scientific note, which is totally legitimate, my understanding of climate change/global warming (whatever one decides to call it...same thing!) is that one consequence involves more EXTREMES.  It doesn't mean cold disappears or that you won't get snow in the deep south, etc.  Those extremes can involve abnormal cold (and snow) in places that don't normally experience it.  I'm sure it's been this cold in the deep south and Gulf areas before...the difference in this case is there also happens to be a significant system moving through while that cold is in place.  So they're getting dumped on rather than getting effectively a "blue norther" of cold and dry.  If it was just anomalous cold, you wouldn't hear quite as much about what's happening there.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

CHEMTRAILS!!! 

21 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That's sweet looking. Nice cad. Perfect transfer. Moisture laden

 

If we get that I'm at peace with a February warm up.

Nahhh, don't want that really.  I mean, the pattern will almost surely relax and change at some point, and I fully expect some part of February to be warmer/unfavorable (hopefully not a torch though, at least).  But I hope for some kind of last blast of winter toward the 2nd part of February and early March, that would be nice!

Just now, aldie 22 said:

I never thought of Will as a troll but I do think he's naturally pessimistic and when he gets disappointed he wants to make sure everyone shares his misery. 

I admit I'm getting a bit tired of the hourly HRRR model postings and wringing hands at every single little change.

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hahahaha yassssss. It’s a good day to be a Washington fan

Not that there's a real "choice" per se, but whom would you rather they face in the NFC championship?  I would think they would be better matched with the Rams, with the Eagles being tougher.  But then again, they dropped 45 on the (admittedly somewhat defenseless) Lions so you never know in a playoff game!

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

At least the Rams/Eagles should be fun to watch. 

My older brother is a big Rams fan (has been his whole life, for some reason!)...years ago when they were particularly awful, he used to joke about calling them the Lambs, and saying "Silence of the Lambs" every time they lost!

Congrats Commanders/WTFs, from a lowly (very lowly!) Cleveland fan!  Browns sucked this year so I haven't paid much attention, but I'm glad the playoffs have shaken things up a bit.  Now, can we please knock KC out of it?  I really don't care to have them in another SB!

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

0z GFS is certainly not boring

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro Ai keeps showing an event near the 30th


.

Yeah I was just flipping through the 00Z and 06Z GFS quickly and there are definitely some potential events in there!  And it appears plenty enough cold air hanging around through the period.

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Sitting at 35.4 on the Ambient and 33.1 on the cheaper brand thermometer right now. I did not expect to wake up to steady snowfall by any means. I think we obviously might be hard pressed to get 5 inches...but to those realists out there - I'm not sure much has changed appreciably. It wasn't even supposed to "crank" until the afternoon. 

But naturally the worriers will wring their hands and anxious-post all morning. It's going to snow for most of us - how much remains to be seen - but arctic cold is arriving. Can you imagine how bad it would be in here if we had nonstop 60s and shut the blinds? 

I know, right?!  I come in here this morning and it's all doom and gloom, yet I don't see all that much different from several hours ago late last night.  Geez, can we just let this happen how it will and try to have fun with whatever we end up with?  I've always thought this would be a general 2-4" event, maybe 5-6" in some spots, but too many seem to think everyone is getting warning-level snows.

Wow!  Whoever the Commanders play next week is going to be in for a serious game (not jinxing it by saying that before the game is actually over!).  Of course, Rams or Eagles will have a much better defense than the Lions but still.