Scarlet Pimpernel

I believe that is an official index, like the NAO/AO/PNA/WPO/MJO!!

On a lighter note in here...took these shots yesterday. Yes, I went out in those conditions to do a little photography!! First one is of a nearly completely frozen Rock Creek here in suburban MD (Rock Creek Trail, near Bethesda/Silver Spring). Second one is a tree at the entrance of the Georgetown Prep school, I have always liked that tree, it's very stately-looking (black and white image)...

Yeah, I was going to post this the other day but I appreciate this thread. General discussion on what the overall pattern looks like, and how/if some threat could actually materialize. Without the whining, etc., with every model run. I take it that if an actual event threat materializes, that will be discussed more in the regular medium range (and potentially eventual storm specific thread). OK, on topic: It does appear that next weekend's possibility is looking pretty slim right now. I know most guidance has been advertising a general warmup sometime just after next weekend, but it's unclear (to me) how entrenched that gets. I've only followed the guidance (500-mb mainly) in a cursory way, trying to see how things evolve as we get into the last week or so of this month. It seems to me that the warmup doesn't look "extreme" and we kind of end up after that in a sort of changeable look with potential favorable situations for some decent snow chances. I am still hopeful from various things I've seen in here (various indices, extended Euro guidance, etc.) that we're not done yet. I still believe that we don't escape February with zero snow; not a HECS system, but I think a SECS to a MECS level event surely must be on the table. Similarly for the first part of March.

Agree. Fact is, potential is there not just for next weekend but some period beyond that as well. It doesn't appear to be wall to wall shit the blinds. (Oh no, I posted medium range discussion in the Banter thread rather than banter in the Medium Range thread!!! LOL!! )

FYP a little!! I swear, the freak out "OMG, I lost 8" snow since the last run, we suck, it's done!"

Did we find another Rev War Re-enactor??? What the Hessian is going on???

Very much so, agreed! Would take that in a minute!

Could it be...FOLKSY, even?? Of course, 200 hours out, whatever, but I am just glad to see a semi-consistent possibility across all model guidance right now. Euro also looked good at 12Z for the most part.

I think you're fine, probably no need to apologize. Everyone here respects your analysis. Even if you're making less than $150K hahaha! You always appropriately correct or re-state things when required. Besides, at this time range those smaller details like NS shortwaves and such are going to move around every cycle. Key takeaway is there is a solid signal for us in that time period, seems like one or two waves in there that could work?

Decent light snow has been falling for about the past hour or so. Small flake size.

Wow...that's not a very nice thing for Jack to do at your place!!

Bravo! Well played!

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development. But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall! it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes. But temps look OK verbatim through that time. And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before. I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March. I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps. @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier. We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend. Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one. ETA: And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west. ETA2: Also, every single model, not just the Euro, is projecting a blast of very cold air through this weekend into the early part of next week.

The relaxation, however much it may be, doesn't really START until about the middle of next week. It's from that period onward for however long it is.

Check the dates. Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week. Geez.

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

Sorry to post this many hours later in here (and apologies for the banter), but I haven't been logged in for awhile. Anyhow, I also remember "needbiggerboat"!! Yeah, he was funny and I always liked his screen name and user icon pic. Very sad he disappeared (I recall hearing he did some time ago), and also that he had cancer. Hope he is doing OK.

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing? Sure, it could. But why must we practically assume it will? Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look? Seems that's the general feeling here from several people. I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter! And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March. Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event? Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise. Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period. So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory. Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight. I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing. And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced. But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March. And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.