Scarlet Pimpernel

Wow, talk about variability especially the NS. So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much. The southwest trough bounces around. But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!

Hey I resemble that remark!!! Just kidding. But seriously, yeah...I am surprised at least some of that crap wasn't moderated out of there. But maybe it's not technically yet a full-on "storm mode".

Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here. The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area. In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid. We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold. In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking. If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

Yeah that's more or less what I was thinking but didn't word it as well earlier. I thought the GFS was relatively "closer" to the Euro which itself was pretty good at 12Z. The ICON is far different than either.

ICON sux! Storm cancel! NEXT!!!! (Was that a good Ji imitation there?) ETA: This thread is fun and amusing! It's like a mini Panic Room that's storm specific! Kinda like a @WxWatcher007 Reaper Air B & B!!

Actually, I thought the 12Z Euro was more or less similar and rather good overall as well. And that's even with some sleet. So not sure how much of an outlier it actually is in the grand scheme.

I actually thought that overall in the end, the 12Z Euro was rather good for everyone area-wide.

The short pumps will be frozen with ice and bitter cold!

A reminder! Only banter, memes, whining, etc. is allowed in this thread. If you see your posts disappear, that means you were including useful meteorological discussion and analysis. (A "reverse" storm thread!!!)

I believe now for that cycle (01Z) it reflects the much improved 18Z GFS and the GEFS, hence the bump upward from awhile ago.

Agree. I think it's a bit early to be putting out these kinds of specific amounts right now for specific areas. Maybe on Friday or something, whatever it looks like by then. At this point it would be more responsible and helpful to either show some kind of probability or likelihood given current indications. Like prob of getting 6" or more, 12" or more, with some description or verbiage about the uncertainty or range.

I believe this run of the Euro just showed us our top end scenario...Dayum! Let's hope it holds and others follow.

Sorry should have put this here in Banter!! My bad... That Euro run was insane and a thing of beauty!

And that's with the awful 12Z GFS still in the mix, though it apparently is overwhelmed with all the other inputs that were still looking good. 18Z won't be in there until (I believe) the next NBM winter update cycle at 01Z.

Yeah, more or less. I was alarmed and concerned but when the 12Z CMC, UKMET, Euro, all came in (and the ensembles, including the GEFS), I considered the GFS to be a major outlier solution.

Hell, I don't want Ji representing any part of my subconscious!!!!!

Yes. I am very happy to see the GFS back in line with essentially all other guidance for this region and that (hopefully!) its 12Z cycle was just an aberration that won't happen again. Lends a lot more confidence to at least a really solid warning-level event here with decent potential for a lot more upside.

Good to see the snow depth almost the same or at least in-line with the snowfall. I guess that's to be expected given how cold it is supposed to be. This isn't something that will just melt off and we have nothing much on the ground even if the actual "accumulation" is higher.

I'd like to take a moment to thank @mappy, @stormtracker, and all the Mods for how they've handled the storm thread. It is SO MUCH more readable without all the useless childish and whiny posts at every single slight change in the models each cycle. Even today with the 12Z GFS (and AI-GFS) looking lousy, it was more a discussion and level-headed assessment, and not page after page of (ahem, JI and some others!) with tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth, bitching about how we lost 15" of snow or how we suck, or how it's over, whatever. Much appreciated!

Any further word on the 18Z GEFS? I take it they at least held from 12Z and look solid?

Likely not that high around here at least, but pushing 12:1 or so is possible during some part of the event I'd think.

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal. Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily. I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event. It was only the details that were to be determined. But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then. From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details. I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

Yeah was noticing that. I like that there's not a sharp cutoff and it's expanded.

Dayum...from an inch or maybe two at 12Z, to a foot-plus in the DMV! The 10:1 ratios are still on the order of @stormtracker's baseline of 6-10" area wide.