Scarlet Pimpernel

It's the NAVY model...of course it's, uhhhh, at sea!

Yeah...SOME people will flip out if we don't keep seeing 20"+ every single run. Would I love to see that, like we saw for the 2016 blizzard? Hell yes! But I don't expect that to keep showing up. As I said before, a solid cold-powder moderate or better event would still be amazing.

Absolutely. There is definitely cause for caution (though NOT freaking out at every damned model cycle!), which I think nearly everyone here has. I seriously doubt the Euro shows the amazing solution we saw at 12Z, that is probably an upper end or nearly so. At the same time, I don't think a slight "decrease" in snow amounts would mean "OMG, panic, the Euro is going the way of the GFS!!". Key for me at least is to see the same overall evolution, and hope the GFS/GEFS at some point soon starts indicating the same. If you look at the range of reasonable solutions, I have to think we're looking at a solid, decent SECS to MECS event, and perhaps more if things phase just right. No, we may not get 20" but I would still love to see a widespread 6-10" or 8-12" of cold freakin' powder that would stick around for a few days at least, given how cold the temperatures look!

I thought it was 17.8". Seems that specific location cannot measure more than that even if a short distance away gets well over 20"!!! (OK, I think DCA did record around 19" for the PD-I storm but all the other big ones since, seem to have been stuck at literally 17.8!!!)

I hope today's Euro ended up verifying!! LOL!!! PSU Hoffman: "Heavy snow will begin about...NOW!" Awed Weenies: "Whoooa, how did he know that?!"

PSU actually took a DeLorean to 88MPH and ended up in the future next week. He's come back to tell us about it...

That is actually on display in a secret part of the Louvre. It's a lesser known da Vinci portrait (popular among snow enthusiasts). Viewing by appointment only. Even Leonardo himself said he liked it more than that over-hyped Mona Lisa thing. Actually, since it's from the ECMWF, perhaps it should be in the British Museum!!

That last panel kinda looks like the "shocked" face there! But seriously...hopefully this look can hold on as we get closer to the event, etc.

I think @stormtracker would say the GFS can go do something with itself (the "other" F word)!!

(that "ff" must be for FFolks!!!)

Beethoven meets the @Bob Chill "shock/OMG" face!! (gotta admit, that does look a little creepy...but hell, with that Euro run, creepy is good!)

5" here in Bethesda as of 9PM. Still snowing at a good rate! I know this will be gone by Thursday but wow, what a fun storm!

Exactly! Thank you for a voice of reason, Bob. There will be several solutions every model cycle and as I said a few times already in here, no point in fretting over every ops run at this point in time. I will say that I do like seeing the ops at this range showing hits, or hints of hits. I'd almost be more worried if nothing was showing up while the ensemble mean pattern was looking amazing (kind of like last year?). As for NYC, didn't they have that run of 40"+ for like 3 years in a row during the heater you were referring to? Thanks again for your thoughts and very "Chill" attitude and viewpoint!

You must be getting 3 beers/hour, according to the SBFI!!

Always loved that view of your house, with the wintry scenes!!

Palm trees must be bending heavily with all that snow on them!

3.0" as of about 6PM. Main roads are covered.

OK, to be honest, I want to see (at some point soon, whenever that is!) a solid event, MECS+ level, consistently showing up for the whole area cycle after cycle. I just don't think realistically we'll see that consistency just yet, if that's what actually ends up occurring at that time.

Also, that is probably not the only storm chance in the upcoming pattern regime that's being forecast. @psuhoffman gave some good descriptions earlier about this.

We've seen everything from getting a bit too far north to a nice MECS+ hit to sliding just to the south. Supposed seasonal trend or not, at this point in time it's not worth worrying about until we get much closer in. What are people going to say if 00Z cuts it into Lake Erie? FFS!

It's ONE deterministic run. Can't fret that stuff right now. The previous two GFS runs had an almost inland runner that was some combination of snow/ice/rain. The 00Z ECMWF from what I saw pummeled us (snow, and a period of ice then cold). The 12Z CMC gave us a high-end cold powder MECS. For me, the key takeaway is that a storm is now seemingly showing up consistently in that time frame. Hell, a few days ago, the GFS was dumping 40"+ on us. Again, the idea here is that it's a somewhat loaded pattern; we can't go back and forth worrying about every single cycle of every model this far out.

Moderate (or better) snow falling in Bethesda, paved surfaces getting covered (though roads with all the salt, mostly wet right now). Visibility getting quite low too. Maybe ~0.5" or so on the ground currently when I went out several minutes ago. Took a few photos of the early part of this event, will go out later as well. I'll post a few sometime later tomorrow when I have a chance.

Works for me. Give us several opportunities that we can hopefully score well on a couple (or so!) times from now through mid-March and I'd be fine.

Wasn't this already known and expected, that we'd go to rain sometime Wednesday night? Unless you're referring to something else...?