Scarlet Pimpernel

Also on that 18Z surface/precip plot there's a lot more snow (and precip) still coming in at 144h it appears, compared to 150h at 12Z when it's mostly done and moving out (and mind you, 12Z Euro was still quite good).

Short Pump FTW!!

Does it go as much as what the GFS AI did (decent shift south it seemed but still quite fine enough here), or is it a minor shift in the Euro AI?

Thanks...sorry, I was in here several hours ago when this thread started and haven't seen or looked at all the intervening stuff when I had to step out for awhile. Good discussion!

FIFY...for @stormtracker!!!

A related question might be why other models are showing that trough ejecting better and perhaps better interaction with the NS, but the GFS is "refusing" to do so. While I'm not saying it will be or is correct, it does give one pause.

Sorry if this is too much banter in here, but damn, I still vividly remember for that 2016 storm sitting in a coffee shop on the Saturday before the event looking on my phone through this forum at the discussion. The 12Z models were all coming in, and they ALL homed in on a major event. Every. Single. One. It was only a matter of how much and whether we might get some sleet perhaps, etc. But they barely wavered through the next week through that storm. I remember walking out of the coffee place just KNOWING we were in for a seriously major winter event and there was little doubt in my mind outside of the fine details. That was a freaking fun time!

Good point. Also, yeah, it's a Nina right now but it's not like the models are suddenly going "OMG, it's a Nina, we better back way off on any snow amount that we're showing!" I know, that's a bit snarky, but I find that a lot of people almost think that. The thing is...this situation is showing up now regardless of the ENSO state and I don't think we can just sit here and say "oh, it failed [if it does] because Nina rather than Nino!" I don't find that to be a binary thing really. One can argue that this kind of setup would be more rare in a Nina or not as likely to happen, but it's not like if anything backs off that "it's due to the Nina!"

That's what I thought. I just found it a tad amusing!!!

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!! Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there. And...that's snow DEPTH? Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

Perhaps...and I am in no way saying it's correct...But it was just last year that New Orleans and the Gulf Coast got like 8-12" snow which "never could happen in a million years!"

I'm kind of wondering that. Or if it's almost like two distinct periods that add on to each other? I believe the AIGFS showed two pulses?

Exactly...thank you! Obviously, our ideal would be to have every model on board for a huge event and never waver through game time when we get utterly hammered. But people see several models at 12Z giving us near-historic to historic amounts, then some things at 18Z cut that with ensuing panic. And now suddenly, say if we end up getting "only" a 4-8" event (that would be cold powder mind you!), it's cause for tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and cries of failure. FFS!

To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z. Why are people saying it's "worse"? There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"?

(Apologies for light banter here but...) Now wait a minute, isn't there some kind of emoluments clause for board moderators?!?!

Haha, well, two minds with but a single thought! I'm also a bit skeptical still about the AI models, maybe because it's such a potentially huge event. But they have proven their worth in the past year or so and (as other mets have said) they do offer solid guidance for the "overall" pattern look, precip shield, that sort of thing. Maybe not specifics like banding or small-scale features, but those are ironed out with mesoscale models. I do like that the AIs have been hammering this consistently. ETA: Regardless, I'm starting to be a bit more confident that we get some kind of warning-level cold powder at least, even if it's not the crazy amounts.

So I guess an overall brief summary after today's 12Z suite (Jan. 19)... --AI GFS, AI Euro, AI Ensembles (at least the Euro version), CMC, UKMET give us a major event HECS; AI models have been hammering this for awhile now. --ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles look quite solid (going by previous Euro ensembles, 12Z not in yet?) for cold smoke upper-end warning level event --GFS is the most suppressed, but 12Z from what I read earlier had some improvements perhaps in the upper levels? --GEFS look solid, similar I think to the ECMWF ensembles. (ETA: Also, I recall that someone showed the CMC ensembles were likewise a big hit). (ETA more! the NBM also was a solid hit from earlier today. Damn how can I forget that when I actually do development work on the damned thing!!!) Hope that more or less is correct.

I also like that even though the GFS looked not so good with the surface, there was some improvement I believe upstairs? So even that model which has been the most suppressed, perhaps showed incremental improvement for us in some way.

Hard to tell because I'm just going by discussion and a few maps in here, but not sure if it's necessarily a bump north with the wave or more amped with a greater precip shield. But either way it's a bump up in amounts.

@stormtracker, were those SV Euro precip maps for 6-h amounts, I assume (the two you showed a short while ago)?

You're referring to the 06Z EPS that was shown earlier? I agree. I made these comments earlier, but (1) it stops at 144-h, and I don't think that's the entire storm and (2) to me, it appeared that the max snow area actually widened or expanded. Either way, yeah, one could argue that the axis shifted a bit south but right now it's mostly noise.

I know, we've all been there, done that, have the T-shirt. Which is why I mentioned the GFS was showing that kind of scenario just the other day before it began suppressing everything, and everyone got freaked out at that. I still think currently, that's the least likely scenario...if anything I can see a snow to ice (or snow-ice-snow) outcome if this ends up going "too far" north in the end.

Agree, given the current setup look, suppression is more likely in terms of how this could fail. But I'd still like to be optimistic (won't necessarily say "confident") that even a bit of suppression where we end up on the northern edge of the best snow would still be a win for us. That would still be warning-level snows, literally cold powder. I think last night's Euro showed that scenario? Heck if we can even increase the amount of moisture being thrown into the cold air, expand the precip shield, that would be nice too.

I know this is perhaps meant as a semi-humorous downer post but...ironically, the GFS was kinda showing just that in the 12Z Saturday run, before it then proceeded to suppress things too much.

Kinda hard to say that it's a definitive shift south per se. I mean, yeah, the axis of max amount shifts a bit that way but a couple of things. First (and as you say) this is out to 144h, there's still surely at least some more beyond that time. Next, notice how the max area actually expands or widens (looking at the dark blue and higher area). Probably nothing, but still interesting perhaps. And really at this point it's more or less noise. Catching up on the last several pages here (and...ahem!...ignoring certain posts!), I agree with the overall idea that we're in a pretty good spot, taking into account the AI models, GFS, Euro, GEFS, EPS, and even the CMC. Others probably already said this, but while a more suppressed solution is clearly on the table here (seems like a "cutter" is much less likely right now), even if we're on the northern edge of the best stuff we still would get a really solid amount of cold smoke. Would we all like to end up in the max zone? Yeah of course (duh!)!! But a warning-level event through this region even on the "edge" isn't something I'd sneeze at.