Scarlet Pimpernel

Leaving aside whether or not the NAM is too aggressive with slamming that mid-level warmth in too fast (and too much)...I really wonder why it is so anemic with the QPF surge. I mean, it seems like it has generally the same overall synoptic setup and progression as most other models, I believe?

Same. I don't necessarily question the NAM's thermals per se for the most part (though I have a sense it's perhaps too aggressive on that). But it is clearly on the really light end in terms of QPF up to the point where most flip to sleet. Nearly every other model has a good, solid thump of snow into at least mid-morning or so tomorrow. Given LWX's latest forecast, I can only assume they view the NAM's QPF as a low outlier as well. We will see.

I'm tempted to ask but...maybe I shouldn't!!!

LOL!!! Well hell, that's about all that was left for TP at most supermarkets the past couple of days!!! Duct tape your s**t!!!

Ohhh, that sounds tasty!!! Perfect thing to cook and let simmer on a weekend like this!

I take that to mean north and west of the main urban corridor around DC-Balt. So north and west of suburban DC for instance, somewhere well enough outside the Beltway.

Interestingly, in their latest forecast package, LWX has actually upped the amounts a tad for the immediate DC suburbs in MD (Bethesda, Silver Spring, etc.) in tonight's snow as well as snow/sleet tomorrow.

I haven't been looking quite as much at this thread, obviously, with the upcoming event taking most of my focus. But overall I like the signal as we approach the end of January and first week of February. And actually that signal was appearing around that time for awhile now. I gave a very cursory glance at the GFS surface, and caveats aside about a deterministic run way out in time, but damn it looks to unload another 1050 high into the US near the end of its run!

Give it a huge dash of weenie hopium, a'la Emeril Lagasse!! BAM!

Yeah shoveling sleet, especially after it has settled for a bit, is...not fun. It's nearly impossible to scrape off a driveway. I guess hopefully it will be cold enough that it won't really melt/refreeze into a solid brick, and mainly just be like moving a bunch of pellets. Still not easy (compared to having only snow). Many, many years ago, growing up in northeast Ohio, I recall this storm that dumped sleet followed by heavy snow on top (kinda the reverse of what we're looking at tomorrow). In that case, the sleet did compress down and cake itself onto the driveway pavement. It took me forever to shovel snow and also scrape enough of the underneath sleet layer off!!!

"We used to roast upper levels back in the day at Camp Waconda!"

Yeah I hope some of that cutback in QPF in some of the mesos (NAM, in particular?) is not correct.

I mean, from a photographic standpoint it would look amazing...but obviously highly destructive and dangerous!

Haha, so true! I swear there are times when my daughter could get sassy over the years and I'd let it go but at the same time think to myself, "I'd NEVER be able to say that to MY parents...and get away with it!!" LOL!! Ahhh, but the time does fly and she was a good kid (still a kid to me even at age 22!). Mine just graduated college this past May (U MD) and I swear it feels like yesterday that she was just starting high school, or even middle school! I find myself getting really sentimental at times!

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

The key is that it drops ~0.75-1.00" QPF by that point, huge thump right there. Whereas the NAM was a lot drier for the snow part (and of course it had an earlier flip as well).

Using the 6" line for reference, it looks like that now bows out more to the southeast, which is nice to see. Can't recall if that's similar to 18Z and earlier but still.

No matter what happens, Severe Aveeno Alerts have been issued for dry, chapped skin!!

977-mb off the coast of NJ??? Holy F***!!

Goon worthy even!

Nicely placed high pressures to the west and north!

Yeah we need to keep @Ralph Wiggum from prematurely gooning!