Scarlet Pimpernel

Don't jinx it! I'm thinking of the old "Shaft" song, the "Shut yo' mouth!" part!! LOL!!!

Are you looking to secede?

Agree. I think what we're seeing this upcoming week is pretty much what you stated well before this. That is, you weren't that big on it, but also said you weren't discounting any snow possibilities which still could happen. We're now looking at an imperfect and "lucky" event for Tuesday-Wednesday, though obviously we're not going to see those outrageous amounts that models were spitting out late last week. Still respectable though! Now right after that, we have to deal with more or less getting washed out, though it shouldn't be a torch per se. As for next weekend into PD, I'm not overly high on anything there myself either, but I'm paying some attention to the trends that we may have some icy mess perhaps as we get into the blocking regime more (or that's what it looks like, at least for some areas). Then of course, there's your favored period beginning around the 20th, and I like how the ensembles have remained pretty rock steady so far on that. It's also good to see a couple of ops runs here and there throw out some nice solutions during that period. That's what we want to see, though the details remain to be ironed out. (ETA: It must help also that we're not coming out of some several week period of Pac puke with absolutely no cold air even in Canada. So not like we should have to take a long time to "restore" the cold air source as we've had happen in the past).

Pretty reasonable for right now. I'm sure that will get refined in the next day or so, and the max areas perhaps become better identified.

We've accumulated good snow during daylight hours in the first part of March upon several occasions in the past several years. And it's not like it was always pounding heavy snow either.

Yeah, hoping to mitigate how much gets washed away later in the week!

I believe you mean the IGGLES!!!

They haven't gotten 6" in Baltimore from the NAM???

I miss the DGEX.

There will be lots of slant-sticking.

Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time. The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after. Now...???

I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere. It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell. If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting.

Yup...I'm kind of agnostic on the game but at the same time don't really care to see the Chefs win again either! (yes, purposeful misspelling there!)

You really shouldn't let squirrels anywhere near...oh, nevermind!!!

Everyone ready for the Superb Owl game today? By the way, who are the Chefs???

I see that the secret FOLKS is watching this thread!!

Hope you feel better soon and don't have too bad of a case!!

Uhhhh...errrr...leaving that one alone, lest The Raven Who Rules but Shall Not Be Named chimes in! Ooops, I think I just sent up the bat signal! Sorry about that!

"After further review, the Lakes cutter stands as modeled. Repeat 4th down!"

Sign him up for the Browns (Clowns)!!! Fits right in! And I say that as a native Clevelander, I'll freely diss how awful they are. Now the Cavs (and Guardians)...different story!

Wasn't that one always more or less a rainer? But that one next weekend has occasionally indicated some kind of snow/ice type deal around here, it's vacillated between that and rain.

I was reminded of the snow (first time in recorded history I believe?) in Miami during that remarkably cold January 1977. I had lived in Atlanta for several years (mid '90s into the early 2000s), which is of course right in the Piedmont region. I never saw big snows there but did experience some real cold upon occasion as well as some light snows and a couple of serious ice events. I was amazed how the more deciduous trees were relatively unscathed, but those pine trees they have down there and the southern magnolias got totally shredded (put 1/4" of ice or so onto those magnolia leaves and they just get destroyed).

Did we just get ICON'd...relatively speaking?

I've only followed this line of discussion in a cursory manner, so apologies if I'm stating things that were said before or are not exactly on topic here. But I've always found it interesting how places in the deep south can get these remarkable "cold smoke" snowstorms almost with any major Arctic outbreak, when one might normally think that snows for them would have to be "wetter/slushier" just because they are in a warmer region. I know that is an extreme of course, and when such things occur they're just on the right side of that boundary with a nice wave going across. The weather doesn't care that it's New Orleans or Pensacola or Atlanta...or Minneapolis. I was talking with someone the other day that blasts of cold air are not overly uncommon in the south (one can argue whether certain nameless trends make that less common now than previously!), but this one just happened to occur with a strong wave propagating to the south, so they got record-setting snows. If they got no snow and essentially just a "blue norther" (I believe that's what they call it in Texas!), we'd read about the unusual cold but it wouldn't be the big news story without the snow. I think this all is a part of the changing climate with more extremes; those extremes don't always have to be heat-related. LOL, gonna need a bigger paycheck then! But seriously, yeah, there's some nuance in here that is not easy to define I'm sure, beyond climate change (can I use that phrase? LOL!).

I know you weren't canceling anything...I was being humorous and facetious because the moods in here give one whiplash (people posting 360+ hour ops maps and freaking out, OMG!!!! And that right after partying at a crazy snowstorm the GFS showed at 06Z.). You've been spot on steady as a rock about "your" period of about Feb. 20 through Mar. 15. And I agree with your thoughts on this upcoming next week. While I was hopeful (still am!) and it would be cool to score before the time that will be more truly favorable, it is kind of an iffy prospect. You did state that to be sure (an iffy prospect next week), while at the same time saying that you weren't discounting any snow threats prior to the 20th. I thought that was a fair take. (And, BTW, I appreciate the educational and philosophical discussions as well).