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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. We now have to look out for the @psuhoffman storm around the 20th!
  2. I don't think it was really warmer per se. Temps looked fine. Perhaps faster moving but still quite the hit.
  3. Surface temps hold pretty well, though, at least. And like you said, it's pounding snow so even with close layer in there it works out OK. Of course, no point in scrutinizing details this far out, but still.
  4. I think that FOLKS user is a @stormtracker shadow account, watching everyone in here, waiting to say FOLKS!!!
  5. 18" and bananas definitely lead to a pants tent forecast!
  6. My God, the incessant whining and complaining in the medium range thread is annoying and just plain useless! Come on! OK, yeah, we're all going ga-ga over the latest GFS showing 12-18" snow and some of the earlier model runs that showed similar amounts. Then people get all sad-faced and worried when the Euro or some other model, or the next cycle, shows "only" 4-8" and perhaps some potential for ice mixing in there. THAT'S STILL SOLID WARNING LEVEL! The fact is, guidance thus far is coming into agreement for a warning-level snow next Tue-Wed. Really, that's about all we should care about and focus on at this point. I'd love to see these crazy amounts in excess of a foot. But I'm not going to whine if it's "less" than that but still a solid warning.
  7. I was actually just thinking the same thing about the Sun-Mon wave. Is the fact that it's somewhat weaker and farther south actually allow the Tuesday wave to grow more, gain more moisture, etc.? While also being colder overall. It seems as if the better solutions lately have focused more on the 11th-12th wave, oscillating on how strong it is, how far north/south, where the snow/ice line is.
  8. I really don't think anyone thinks this is in the bag just yet (at least not anyone with some level of common sense!). But one has to like the remarkable ensemble signals as well as what's now showing up on the deterministic runs. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the caution here...I'm always overly cautious myself until we actually have a "go" time, but this is not looking like some far-fetched potential here. I'd like to think we're in a good position.
  9. We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!!
  10. To paraphrase Mr. Darcy in "Pride and Prejudice"...it is tolerable, I suppose!
  11. There was a time when the 2016 blizzard just locked in and we all knew it. I am absolutely NOT saying this is a comparable event or will be the same, or even that these amounts the Euro and GFS are showing will definitely verify. But the Saturday before the 2016 event, a week prior, every single model and ensemble was pounding that Jan. 22-23 time frame as a major winter event. It was just a matter of working out the details. I still vividly remember looking at the discussion in here after the 12Z models on Jan. 16 (that Saturday) and it's like everyone KNEW. Again, not saying this is the same exact thing by any means (or that it's "guaranteed"), but what the ensembles and the deterministic have been showing for the past couple of days is very reminiscent to me. That was a classic setup of course with the blocking, plus an El Nino, etc. So not the same. But you get the idea.
  12. The ensembles have been hammering this for the past several days, though initially it was not clear exactly what time period might produce this (various waves next week giving high ensemble mean amounts in total). It now appears to be honing in on the 11th-12th as the main event.
  13. You should have enough room for a tub of Helluvagood dip!
  14. The SFBI (Scraff Fridge Beer Index) is extremely high during that period! Like +25 standard deviations! No room for any brie cheese or yogurts, the shelves will be bulging with high-quality beers!
  15. Yeah, just realized...got confused on which wave people were talking about going farther south and out to sea. There is something on that Monday the 10th initially it appears.
  16. GFS keying on a different shortwave? ETA: Nevermind, just looked a bit more closely and I realized people were looking at the wave on Monday perhaps? Not the one for around Feb. 12.
  17. Celebrity deathmatch...@stormtracker vs. @H2O!!!
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