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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I would have to imagine all the data are available to all models.
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'm actually rather impressed it dumps ~7" by early Sunday morning...I mean, wow!
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Looks like the sleet/mix line is in approximately the same area as it was at 18Z at the same time(s)?
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    OK...if it doesn't fail and works out pretty well, how about the "Maestro Mauler"? Or the "Ludwig Van Lasher"??
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah I may not have worded that the best, I was looking just at that Euro loop with the East Coast ridging. But the GFS I guess does change more. I'm sure there will be several more adjustments, but they don't necessarily have to all be bad (hopefully, at least!).
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Same. A couple of 18Z Euro maps earlier showed DC with like 0.3"+ of ice accretion with amounts pushing 0.75" farther south. I just don't see that level of freezing rain. Would think that's mostly sleet.
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Wow, talk about variability especially the NS. So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much. The southwest trough bounces around. But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Hey I resemble that remark!!! Just kidding. But seriously, yeah...I am surprised at least some of that crap wasn't moderated out of there. But maybe it's not technically yet a full-on "storm mode".
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here. The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area. In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid. We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold. In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking. If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah that's more or less what I was thinking but didn't word it as well earlier. I thought the GFS was relatively "closer" to the Euro which itself was pretty good at 12Z. The ICON is far different than either.
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    ICON sux! Storm cancel! NEXT!!!! (Was that a good Ji imitation there?) ETA: This thread is fun and amusing! It's like a mini Panic Room that's storm specific! Kinda like a @WxWatcher007 Reaper Air B & B!!
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Actually, I thought the 12Z Euro was more or less similar and rather good overall as well. And that's even with some sleet. So not sure how much of an outlier it actually is in the grand scheme.
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I actually thought that overall in the end, the 12Z Euro was rather good for everyone area-wide.
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The short pumps will be frozen with ice and bitter cold!
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    A reminder! Only banter, memes, whining, etc. is allowed in this thread. If you see your posts disappear, that means you were including useful meteorological discussion and analysis. (A "reverse" storm thread!!!)
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I believe now for that cycle (01Z) it reflects the much improved 18Z GFS and the GEFS, hence the bump upward from awhile ago.
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Agree. I think it's a bit early to be putting out these kinds of specific amounts right now for specific areas. Maybe on Friday or something, whatever it looks like by then. At this point it would be more responsible and helpful to either show some kind of probability or likelihood given current indications. Like prob of getting 6" or more, 12" or more, with some description or verbiage about the uncertainty or range.
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I believe this run of the Euro just showed us our top end scenario...Dayum! Let's hope it holds and others follow.
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Sorry should have put this here in Banter!! My bad... That Euro run was insane and a thing of beauty!
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    And that's with the awful 12Z GFS still in the mix, though it apparently is overwhelmed with all the other inputs that were still looking good. 18Z won't be in there until (I believe) the next NBM winter update cycle at 01Z.
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah, more or less. I was alarmed and concerned but when the 12Z CMC, UKMET, Euro, all came in (and the ensembles, including the GEFS), I considered the GFS to be a major outlier solution.
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Hell, I don't want Ji representing any part of my subconscious!!!!!
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yes. I am very happy to see the GFS back in line with essentially all other guidance for this region and that (hopefully!) its 12Z cycle was just an aberration that won't happen again. Lends a lot more confidence to at least a really solid warning-level event here with decent potential for a lot more upside.
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