Scarlet Pimpernel

FWIW, I have always liked your PBP and much appreciate the reserved caution. And that goes both ways, whether it's looking better or worse. You present it factually and do your best to not impart a bunch of emotion (happy or upset), until the run is completed. I mean, when it looks better while things are still in progress coming out, you're cautious which is a good thing...and when the final result is in, you'll give the FOLKS or GUYS or maybe even JAWS (if we get an event of that magnitude!). But even if it's looking like crap, you don't go all whiney about it like all too many in here, you just state that it's not good and "on to the next run", something like that.

I think also, the NAM is showing much less in terms of the front end big QPF/snow thump? That is, it's a bit drier during the "key" period and only gets heavier after the flip. We're essentially guaranteed to flip to...something (hopefully sleet, not freezing rain!)...but we need to maximize the QPF Saturday night into Sunday and hopefully hold off any flip until 15-18Z if we can manage. The last Euro (and its AI counterpart), I thought, wasn't too bad overall? It still had a solid thump of snow. Certainly better than the NAM and the RRFS I think as well.

Actually I thought one of those 850 plots someone showed a page or two ago showed the primary at 18Z pushing notably farther north, like up toward the Ohio River in WV, there about, with a broad closed extension north and south through there. Whereas it was weaker and farther south at 12Z. I think it was the RRFS? Either way...I am not saying that's going to be correct, but clearly some of the models are (perhaps the NAM as well, maybe not so much the globals?) doing that.

Yeesh, if that happens! I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago. Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster. But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred. I can only imagine moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s.

Really? Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet? ETA: What time about does any flip occur, and how much QPF in that time beforehand?

Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

Interesting snippet from LWX's latest AFD. I bolded the part that stood out to me, involving heavy sleet at times and possibly "a few inches" of sleet accumulation! If that happens...wow...that would be an unreal sleet bomb, bigger than what I got in Feb. 2007 (and this will be a LOT colder too). They've adjusted the Saturday night and Sunday accumulations of snow/sleet a bit but still generally in the same range as before at least for the DC metro. While this event will start as a period of heavy snow (potentially 1-2"/hr at times) overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, a potent warm nose aloft will quickly transition most locales to sleet by mid-morning. Now, this will be very heavy sleet at times, especially before the afternoon, so even the sleet accumulations could amount to a few inches. Hence, the storm total snow forecast you will see on weather.gov/lwx/winter will be showing the combination of snow and sleet.

Can we please keep political bullshit out of this?

Thing is, overall the Euro doesn't look bad for us either. It's not like the GFS of course, but we still do quite well.

Exactly. Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen. But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot! It's a Nina! I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

The halcyon days when we were concerned about such things!!!

Holy crap! That's like an alternate version of @Scraff's beer fridge!!!

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

Hopefully the QPF amounts are better, after 18Z was rather anemic. That seems to be the biggest thing if we want a solid thump of heavy snow before any flip to sleet/ice.

FYP for ya!!

It's the gift that keeps on giving! Ask Clark Griswold!!!

I know, right?!?! Hell, I grew up in northeast Ohio in the '70s and '80s and recall the record bitter cold winter of 1976-77. Temp in Cleveland was below freezing from the last part of December through the first week of February. Dinosaurs froze up on the roads, for those families well off enough to have a dinosaur for transportation. It was an icy walk to school uphill both ways!! (But in all seriousness, that was an incredible winter and extreme cold over the entire eastern US. That and the following one, 1977-78!).

I mean yeah...I think the GFS is out there on its own right now and is at this point the absolute best possible outcome. But even the other models (other than maybe the 18Z NAM) give a solid amount of snow Saturday night into at least early Sunday morning, and the consensus seems to be on the order of ~6-10" total (snow plus the snow/sleet we get Sunday) in the metro areas DC-Balt, with more northwest of there. At this point in the game, NOBODY should be surprised that we're going to mix and/or change to sleet for awhile at some point. That's been hammered by every piece of guidance for awhile now.

C'mon people! This BS should be in the Banter thread. It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting. I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case. Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier? Sure, a bit cautious. But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine. But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now. (ETA: And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

That's what I thought and was my understanding. So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps. Or something on that order. The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

That's got to be one of the (maybe THE) most expansive areas of winter storm watches/warnings I've seen. And some of the watches/warnings are actually "hidden" beneath the cold weather advisory color (light blue, e.g., in KS, MO, IL, IN, OH, PA, etc.).

It looks very reasonable psu, thanks for throwing that out there. More or less in line with my thoughts (focusing on the DC metro). Not sure if you included the sleet bomb in on that total, but potential to dump a couple inches of sleet on that as well.

I think we should change the name of this thread to "Miracle on Ice"!! (For those old enough to remember the 1980 Winter Olympics when the USA hockey team upset the Soviets and won the gold medal, you'll get the reference!)

I seriously LOL'ed at this!!!