Scarlet Pimpernel

You could call it the Shohei Ohtani of amazing weather forecast calls!

Well, I'm not totally giving up on the winter but I'm definitely of the @Bob Chill Zen attitude right now. If we get something that looks fun, I'll check it out and great!! If not, don't much care at this point. And I don't think we're done, to be honest, but we'll see. With that, I'll post a couple of photos I got today. One is a tiny icicle I saw in a tree, gave it a silvery black and white look which I thought was cool. And a snowdrop flower, they are always one of the first to come up even before actual spring.

I know it's out there beyond la-la land but did anyone else notice the anafrontal snow the GFS tries to give us around March 2? It has shown up before around that time so this isn't exactly a one-off appearance of this. Not the most likely, yeah, but something, and I don't think we're done for the season yet.

I'll gladly have what the GFS is toking.

How about Mozart doing an eyeroll??? (couldn't find one with Beethoven!)... (ETA: It's widely known that Mozart, other than being a world-renowned composer, was an immense snow weenie in Austria at the time.)

It ate too many mints.

Instead of brining the roads, the TRUE snow weenie covers his lawn and driveway with a layer of ice cubes to ensure instant stickage!

On that planet, they shit the blinds every winter!

Yeah, pretty much on the same page as you. Let's just see how things shake out from now through mid-March (I'm talking after this event on Friday night). I'm not sold on "your" storm just yet (the one around the 24th, right?), though obviously there is a signal there. Too warm?? But we'll see, I haven't followed that much of late. And I'm not at all ruling out some decent event in March at some point.

Pretty sure at some point this will happen across the metro areas, with an area-wide 2-4" more or less expected. But interesting the watch actually extended east and south, even into northern MoCo and HoCo

Not a big fan of the "dual maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved. I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now.

Poor groundhog, always taking the heat! What about the Woolly Bears? They shoulder some of the blame!!

Got the same where I'm at in the Bethesda area from that St. Pat's 2014 storm! What an awesome event, and it was below freezing for like a day after. March 2014 itself was an amazing month for snow in this region!

Purple clouds and shrooms!

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

You'll need digital blue pills for that...

This just has @ravensrule written all over it! Or my mind has been twisted. Probably both!

Ahhh, finally found your reply! I sent a quick note in the medium range thread, but thanks much for this explanation, makes sense. And again, apologies @WxUSAF if a couple of my comments got off-track from the normal medium-range discussion. ETA: At this point, this winter, I'm just hoping for a decent storm that's fun, whether it happens toward the end of this month or in March. Don't much care. I am in no way "HECS hunting" by now, but hell, a solid MECS kind of event that we can all follow for a week would be great. I don't think that's out of the question still before we're done.

PSU...somehow, I managed to see your reply just in time and I much appreciate it, thank you! What you said makes sense and I agree. I tried to "react" to that with a "like" but I guess it got moved so my reaction failed, LOL!! Anyhow, not sure what thread some of these posts ended up in. @WxUSAF, my apologies if I got too much into some off-topic elements, requiring some of those to be moved.

Hey @Maestrobjwa, thanks for sharing this!! I had heard it was the 100th anniversary of that amazing piece! I had the opportunity to see this performed live many years ago by the Atlanta Symphony (when I lived there)...and it was played on a midnight-blue piano (can't remember who did the honors in that performance!).

Right. And of course at the same time I wouldn't mind seeing a solution kind of like what the GFS showed the other week for like 4 straight cycles. Obviously that's the upside, but it wasn't a big, phased solution then either as far as I can recall. Just glad to see something decent coming back for this event.

Me either...I don't speak Shroomchaser-ese!

Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing). Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern. That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles. Like day after day after day. And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time. And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so? I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard. I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off. I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof. Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak. So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor. It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened. Anyhow, just wondering...

Meh...we already hit 80 in late January. 60s will be chilly.

Looks like your personal version of the @Scraff SBFI is on the increase!