Scarlet Pimpernel

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

Hopefully the QPF amounts are better, after 18Z was rather anemic. That seems to be the biggest thing if we want a solid thump of heavy snow before any flip to sleet/ice.

FYP for ya!!

It's the gift that keeps on giving! Ask Clark Griswold!!!

I know, right?!?! Hell, I grew up in northeast Ohio in the '70s and '80s and recall the record bitter cold winter of 1976-77. Temp in Cleveland was below freezing from the last part of December through the first week of February. Dinosaurs froze up on the roads, for those families well off enough to have a dinosaur for transportation. It was an icy walk to school uphill both ways!! (But in all seriousness, that was an incredible winter and extreme cold over the entire eastern US. That and the following one, 1977-78!).

I mean yeah...I think the GFS is out there on its own right now and is at this point the absolute best possible outcome. But even the other models (other than maybe the 18Z NAM) give a solid amount of snow Saturday night into at least early Sunday morning, and the consensus seems to be on the order of ~6-10" total (snow plus the snow/sleet we get Sunday) in the metro areas DC-Balt, with more northwest of there. At this point in the game, NOBODY should be surprised that we're going to mix and/or change to sleet for awhile at some point. That's been hammered by every piece of guidance for awhile now.

C'mon people! This BS should be in the Banter thread. It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting. I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case. Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier? Sure, a bit cautious. But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine. But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now. (ETA: And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

That's what I thought and was my understanding. So you might figure (for DC) ~8" of pure snow plus another couple inches of snow/sleet after that, perhaps. Or something on that order. The point-click forecast is currently going 5-9" overnight Saturday and then snow/sleet Sunday (with no estimate yet on amount).

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

That's got to be one of the (maybe THE) most expansive areas of winter storm watches/warnings I've seen. And some of the watches/warnings are actually "hidden" beneath the cold weather advisory color (light blue, e.g., in KS, MO, IL, IN, OH, PA, etc.).

It looks very reasonable psu, thanks for throwing that out there. More or less in line with my thoughts (focusing on the DC metro). Not sure if you included the sleet bomb in on that total, but potential to dump a couple inches of sleet on that as well.

I think we should change the name of this thread to "Miracle on Ice"!! (For those old enough to remember the 1980 Winter Olympics when the USA hockey team upset the Soviets and won the gold medal, you'll get the reference!)

I seriously LOL'ed at this!!!

I would have to imagine all the data are available to all models.

I'm actually rather impressed it dumps ~7" by early Sunday morning...I mean, wow!

Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.

Looks like the sleet/mix line is in approximately the same area as it was at 18Z at the same time(s)?

OK...if it doesn't fail and works out pretty well, how about the "Maestro Mauler"? Or the "Ludwig Van Lasher"??

Yeah I may not have worded that the best, I was looking just at that Euro loop with the East Coast ridging. But the GFS I guess does change more. I'm sure there will be several more adjustments, but they don't necessarily have to all be bad (hopefully, at least!).

Same. A couple of 18Z Euro maps earlier showed DC with like 0.3"+ of ice accretion with amounts pushing 0.75" farther south. I just don't see that level of freezing rain. Would think that's mostly sleet.

Wow, talk about variability especially the NS. So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much. The southwest trough bounces around. But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!

Hey I resemble that remark!!! Just kidding. But seriously, yeah...I am surprised at least some of that crap wasn't moderated out of there. But maybe it's not technically yet a full-on "storm mode".

Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here. The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area. In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid. We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold. In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking. If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

Yeah that's more or less what I was thinking but didn't word it as well earlier. I thought the GFS was relatively "closer" to the Euro which itself was pretty good at 12Z. The ICON is far different than either.