Scarlet Pimpernel

Hope you feel better soon and don't have too bad of a case!!

Uhhhh...errrr...leaving that one alone, lest The Raven Who Rules but Shall Not Be Named chimes in! Ooops, I think I just sent up the bat signal! Sorry about that!

"After further review, the Lakes cutter stands as modeled. Repeat 4th down!"

Sign him up for the Browns (Clowns)!!! Fits right in! And I say that as a native Clevelander, I'll freely diss how awful they are. Now the Cavs (and Guardians)...different story!

Wasn't that one always more or less a rainer? But that one next weekend has occasionally indicated some kind of snow/ice type deal around here, it's vacillated between that and rain.

I was reminded of the snow (first time in recorded history I believe?) in Miami during that remarkably cold January 1977. I had lived in Atlanta for several years (mid '90s into the early 2000s), which is of course right in the Piedmont region. I never saw big snows there but did experience some real cold upon occasion as well as some light snows and a couple of serious ice events. I was amazed how the more deciduous trees were relatively unscathed, but those pine trees they have down there and the southern magnolias got totally shredded (put 1/4" of ice or so onto those magnolia leaves and they just get destroyed).

Did we just get ICON'd...relatively speaking?

I've only followed this line of discussion in a cursory manner, so apologies if I'm stating things that were said before or are not exactly on topic here. But I've always found it interesting how places in the deep south can get these remarkable "cold smoke" snowstorms almost with any major Arctic outbreak, when one might normally think that snows for them would have to be "wetter/slushier" just because they are in a warmer region. I know that is an extreme of course, and when such things occur they're just on the right side of that boundary with a nice wave going across. The weather doesn't care that it's New Orleans or Pensacola or Atlanta...or Minneapolis. I was talking with someone the other day that blasts of cold air are not overly uncommon in the south (one can argue whether certain nameless trends make that less common now than previously!), but this one just happened to occur with a strong wave propagating to the south, so they got record-setting snows. If they got no snow and essentially just a "blue norther" (I believe that's what they call it in Texas!), we'd read about the unusual cold but it wouldn't be the big news story without the snow. I think this all is a part of the changing climate with more extremes; those extremes don't always have to be heat-related. LOL, gonna need a bigger paycheck then! But seriously, yeah, there's some nuance in here that is not easy to define I'm sure, beyond climate change (can I use that phrase? LOL!).

I know you weren't canceling anything...I was being humorous and facetious because the moods in here give one whiplash (people posting 360+ hour ops maps and freaking out, OMG!!!! And that right after partying at a crazy snowstorm the GFS showed at 06Z.). You've been spot on steady as a rock about "your" period of about Feb. 20 through Mar. 15. And I agree with your thoughts on this upcoming next week. While I was hopeful (still am!) and it would be cool to score before the time that will be more truly favorable, it is kind of an iffy prospect. You did state that to be sure (an iffy prospect next week), while at the same time saying that you weren't discounting any snow threats prior to the 20th. I thought that was a fair take. (And, BTW, I appreciate the educational and philosophical discussions as well).

I kind of understand what you're saying here, but this isn't exactly how models work. At least not dynamical models that compute a complex set of dynamic/thermodynamic equations through time, given a set of input initial conditions. Now, the AI-type models might be able to do this. Does the Euro AI use some historical database of the Nino state (or any other factor, like MJO), in its forecasts? You can argue that perhaps the dynamical models don't respond as well as they should to the overall atmospheric state, but it's not a situation of where some "base state" is ignored; it would be sort of indirectly factored in by the input data. If you ran the GFS in the Jurassic era (using those observations the dinosaurs took, hahaha!), it would still work and it would respond to what the atmospheric state was at that time, within the confines of the model biases and such. Regardless of the atmospheric state, the physical and thermodynamic laws are still the same. Of course, as I said, one can look into how well any particular model or ensemble can handle that or how well those equations are represented. But that's a different conversation.

Wow, the mood in here seems to have deflated faster than a Tom Brady football! We've been following the later February into March time frame as being a very favorable time for good opportunities, for a little while now. Yeah, the 06Z GFS with the crazy 40" amounts is not going to happen and I don't think anyone truly took that to heart. But it showed the potential, as have other similar storms that have shown up in that time frame a handful of times. Now, everyone semi-loses it because the GFS and Euro ops show rainers, and now we're talking like, "well, it's a Nina, so we're doomed regardless" or "what if the blocking doesn't work", etc. Of course there is no guarantee with a favorable setup, but I would think there will be several chances to score all the same. If people are looking for a top-5 HECS system here, you're likely going to be disappointed even though that could happen, sure. If you're looking for some solid MECS events, that's a better shot in this environment (i.e., yes, a Nina!).

So...we're canceling the PSU window now?

Elementary, my dear Maestro!

LOL! Well the only F bomb we all really want to hear is FOLKS of course! The frickle thing reminds me of this old New Yorker cartoon. It shows this couple on a date and the man says, "Do you like Kipling?" To which his date says coyly, "I don't know, I've never Kippled!"

Next weekend? Today is this weekend LOL!

Looking at that loop through the past few cycles, it seems clear the 00Z was a very anemic outlier. It really stands out. All other GEFS means in that loop have a similarly wide area of decent or better snow, though it of course wavers back and forth.

That 06Z storm was insane. But something like that has shown up in that general time frame a few times now.

What the frack is a frickle? But seriously what is the GFS showing next weekend, I haven't check 12Z yet? At one point it was showing some kind of snow/ice scenario, then had more of a cutter... Seemed to be back and forth.

Same here, I'm always re-reading and checking and still miss stuff! I don't use autocorrect or auto-fill on my phone or anywhere else because it's annoying and sometimes is just plain wrong (or gets in the way), LOL! Now, back to tracking our long-awaited @psuhoffman storm!

Perhaps you were internally thinking the potential for this upcoming week was rather...weak! (And my previous post was of course all in fun and humor!).

I just "new" you would say that!!! (sorry @stormtracker, couldn't resist, I await the "ban-hammer" for continuing that joke! ).

That kooky storm the 06Z GFS showed at the end of its run (and I love its kookiness!) is like the 2nd or 3rd time that a major storm has shown up in the @psuhoffman "window" in the ops models in the past few days. I hope that's a good sign. Obviously, you can't take any one of them too seriously and at face value at this point, but I'd like to think that seeing big hits like that show up in the ops indicates a solid potential.

That's doesn't sound half bad, really!

FYP!