Scarlet Pimpernel

Actually a bit surprised they're not going somewhat higher for the N MD counties.

The RGEM still has the falling iguana line too far north and west. But it ticked a bit more south last run.

Yup...not all that long ago this looked like a decent minor or so level event, probably no more than 3-5" anywhere, with a blast of cold on its heels. Still a lot of fun! Then we had a few model runs that gave DC and other areas 6"+ and all too many people raised their expectations to that level. So tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth at every single blip. I get the concern we've had about temperatures in the metro areas, that's certainly legitimate, but this belief that we're all going to score a warning-level snow (or else it's a failure) is a bit much.

I mentioned this in the Banter thread, but this event kind of reminds me of Feb. 14, 2015. Not exactly but similar in some ways. We got a burst of snow squalls near evening for about an hour or so (got 2" where I'm at, though I know it was somewhat localized), which was followed by the Arctic blast on strong winds. It actually turned quite brutal out that evening, and remained extremely cold the next week. That's the last time I recall getting the level of cold that's projected for next week, on the heels of tomorrow's event. And the system tomorrow looks to be better than the one in 2015 (more general snow overall). I suspect we'll have a similar scenario with rapidly falling temperatures as the really cold air blasts in. (ETA: That 2015 blast also kicked off an amazing 4 week period of winter!).

For anyone familiar with Pitch Meeting (Ryan George)...

Same here. Always like @stormtracker's annual tribute to Dr. King. And the one he uses is a bit different than the photos of him that you usually see. He looks pretty young in that one? Wonder where/when that was taken.

The NAM 3-km, as I understand it, is still very good guidance for thermal profiles. As for overall precip, not sure.

I've been thinking, this is a very interesting period coming up starting tomorrow through next week. To me, it's kind of reminiscent of mid-February 2015. The event tomorrow reminds me of the burst of snow and squalls we got late in the day of Feb. 14, a quick 2" within an hour or so where I'm at. That was along the leading edge of an Arctic blast, it got very cold and windy in a big hurry that evening. It was really cool! That was followed by some extremely cold air the following week. That's the last time I remember it being so cold around here like that, and next week looks to be similar. Maybe the event tomorrow will be a bit more than the one in 2015 here in the metro DC area, if we're lucky!

I'm far from an expert on AI or anything like that, but here's my understanding: The "regular" ECMWF model is based upon dynamic and thermodynamic equations (speaking very simply here), with a set of initial conditions and observations to start from. Those equations are evaluated through time to obtain forecasts. The AI version is based upon some collection of past "training data" (such as previous atmospheric conditions and observations, and perhaps analogues), which are sort of "regressed" or "correlated" against an independent set of observed data (think of it as a highly sophisticated multi-linear regression, in a way). Others can chime in, I hope this is reasonably accurate of a description albeit kind of simple.

ICON somewhat juicier than it was earlier, it seems? Just going by what I saw here on a snow clown map above.

Nice! I'm on my 3rd glass of wine for the evening right now!

Amen! In 2022-23 I got literally 0.5" snow for the season that fell in the pre-dawn hours one day in early February, and it was gone before 10AM. That's it. Oh, and a bit of snow-TV later in February. It was consistently warm all that winter. That was truly a God-awful season.

How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles?

Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously? Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time.

She didn't say "fudge!" She said the F dash-dash-dash word!!!

So...basically, normal rush hour!

You mean...how much for Short Pump???

Dry af. But seriously, that's a reasonable outlook given what all the guidance says. I think too many here get all giddy and excited when one particular model run shows a lot more snow. Then another model cuts back on that somewhat but still quite respectable, and people go nuts over how awful it is. Totally understand getting stoked when we see a lot more from one model, but have to keep this in perspective. Really all along, this wasn't going to be some huge event in this area, but still a solid amount followed by Arctic cold. Again, expectations and all that.

Thing is, the RGEM has been just as adamant in that solution as the Euro AI has been with its solution. I just hope the RGEM is overdone and way too far northwest on the thermals.

Yeah, I wasn't sure if that was a snark type comment from @bncho, or if they didn't realize that you change your avatar every year for MLK day.

The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward an early weekend dismissal!

Perhaps we'll call it the Prince Regent for now, until it proves itself more!

Same...I read through (more like skimmed) back several pages when I got up this morning. The actual discussion parts sounded pretty darned good to me, so I didn't get all these doom posts.