Scarlet Pimpernel

Dry af. But seriously, that's a reasonable outlook given what all the guidance says. I think too many here get all giddy and excited when one particular model run shows a lot more snow. Then another model cuts back on that somewhat but still quite respectable, and people go nuts over how awful it is. Totally understand getting stoked when we see a lot more from one model, but have to keep this in perspective. Really all along, this wasn't going to be some huge event in this area, but still a solid amount followed by Arctic cold. Again, expectations and all that.

Thing is, the RGEM has been just as adamant in that solution as the Euro AI has been with its solution. I just hope the RGEM is overdone and way too far northwest on the thermals.

Yeah, I wasn't sure if that was a snark type comment from @bncho, or if they didn't realize that you change your avatar every year for MLK day.

The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward an early weekend dismissal!

Perhaps we'll call it the Prince Regent for now, until it proves itself more!

Same...I read through (more like skimmed) back several pages when I got up this morning. The actual discussion parts sounded pretty darned good to me, so I didn't get all these doom posts.

I await the Kuchera precip maps!!

It certainly was! Of course that whole winter 2013-14 was about as wall-to-wall as one can get around here. I don't recall the early Feb. 2014 ice event, maybe it was more in the northern part of MD where you're at. But yeah, that mid-month (around Valentine's Day) storm was great! I recall doing a Jebwalk taking pictures around 1AM, and it was just puking snow! That March was likewise incredible...a moderate event early in the month, the St. Patrick's Day storm, another small event on March 25 (my birthday!), and then even an inch right at the end of the month.

FYP!!

We always hope to get Barney'd with purple!!

It's a complicated development for sure. Almost looks like a northern stream system that pops a sort of coastal while the "primary" near the Lakes hangs on for a bit. Here's that closed low at 500 that I mentioned earlier (not sure why I can't copy/paste from TT, had to save the image and insert...but whatever):

Ice and 25 degrees at one point? Then briefly goes above freezing it appears.

Yeah there's some odd stuff going on. If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before. So yeah, a low over the Lakes area. But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low.

Ending a sentence with a preposition is something up with which I will not put!! (I believe that's attributed to Winston Churchill, someone called him out on ending a sentence with a preposition).

Would that be an ass-hair away, to use Randy's parlance?

Not sure, but I bet it gets Panned a lot!

I thought he decoded it years ago, long before anyone else had a clue!

Looks like some kind of sophisticated Wordle puzzle!

OK, if we're still allowing Kuchera ratio plots...how about the slant-stick ratios???

Always go with the DGEX/CRAS combo...best scenario every time!

LOL that comment you responded to was like a direct feed for a slam-dunk, classic @ravensrule response by the one and only!!!

LOL no problem! But it is a well-known classic of course. If you haven't seen it, I'd highly recommend! Lots of famous quotes and scenes from "Casablanca." Though one of them is a misnomer...everyone uses the phrase, "Play it again Sam!" Yet that exact phrase was never once said in the movie. Bogart's character says, "Play it Sam, play it again. If you can play it for her you can play it for me!" Reminds me of Star Trek, never once did Kirk (or anyone else) actually say "Beam me up, Scotty!" He says "Scotty, beam us up" or things like that. Funny how "famous quotes" get misquoted like that!

Do you mean SE with the "main" low (that rains on us), or are you referring to what apparently might be a trailer that gives us some good snow? I thought the general idea is that we'd get rain around the 19th and then possibly snow with a follow-up wave. But I've only paid vague attention to the details here.

Nope, the movie "Casablanca"!!! Nothing like Twilight Zone!

LOL, no! It's from the movie "Casablanca" with Humphrey Bogart! Famous scene where Rick (Bogart) rigs the roulette table so his friend can win the money needed to fly out before the Germans marched in. Capt. Louis Renault (of the French police) "shuts down" Rick's place due to gambling. The other part of that scene is after he says the "I'm shocked!" line, someone comes by and says "Your winnings, sir!" To which Renault says "Oh, thank you!"