Scarlet Pimpernel
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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel
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Let's just hope we don't suffer his fate. Rather...hope more like this:
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That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on.
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Whoa! I need to go out and eat some very large shrimp now! (yeah, continuing the lame pron/prawn joke from earlier, sorry, hope you don't mind!!! My sense of humor can be off sometimes hahaha!). But seriously...dayum, I really hope we can end up with that! Haven't felt this giddy about a snow event in some time!
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OK, great...thanks! Wow...that's unreal!
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Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!)
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Hahaha!! I know, right?! You see one model that looks...amazingly unreal...and you don't want to let go of it!!! Though the scientific side of me is cautious when I see that, my weenie side sometimes gets in the way! Like Jekyll-Hyde!
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LOL I remember seeing that some years ago, can't remember which forum/region!
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That's what I was hoping for...get rid of that ugly, huge dry slot area that had been showing up.
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I thought I heard some time back (not sure if it's accurate) that the HRRR is really best for summertime convection more than this type of scenario (synoptically-driven winter events, etc.). But yeah, still nice to look at all the same!
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LOL I was kind of thinking the same thing! Some serious "prawns", for sure (see what I did there?)!! But of course, the HRRR way out at range. I just hope it's right for everyone!
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Wow. I know, the HRRR waaaay out at its range but that is insane (i.e., amazing). How much of that is the coastal enhancement? Unless that's occurring at the time this ends.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Scarlet Pimpernel replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Right. It's about all we can expect right now at this range. The threat in general has shown up for a little while, and I recall you mentioning (some pages back) that the "players were on the field but a lot going on" (or words to that effect). Maybe it's trying to hone in on a more discrete threat now. -
I sure hope that NAM precip hole is waaay overdone. I don't think other models show that much dryness.
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(Moving my reply here to Banter, to avoid Storm Mode Wrath!)... At first when I read your comment, I thought you said "Snow map PROM time"!!! Then realized the (purposeful?) reversal of the letters in "pron"!!! LOL! Though I suppose "prom" can work too, we'd definitely all dance with that (with a little snow "pron" afterward hahaha!)!
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Thanks...yeah that's a different progression for sure, more similar to what the main globals have shown (and I totally get the file size limitations!).
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Yeah I saw that on the above loop of the 12km...it's actually shifted south vs. 06Z. Question..did the 3km NAM depict the same extreme dry-slot that is visible on the 12km?
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All good...I figured you were probably pretty busy (been so myself as well!). I've actually been taking off work through the Holidays (had use/lose leave to take!!) and start back tomorrow. What timing, with this event occurring, hahaha! But I work from home on Mondays so I don't have to go anywhere.
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Haha, I was just going to say, we still have a full day or so of models to stress over!
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I really think area-wide will do fine...meaning from about the MD/PA border through somewhere south of the DC area. Everyone is freaking out about where the "max" location is, etc., but it's shaping up as a warning-level event for all. Just looking at the LWX page, the watch covers the entire area. How are you doing, friend? Hope all is well and that you had a great Holiday!
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It appears more like the amounts expanded north, not so much a "shift" per se. Which is also good!
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That's quite a broad, evenly distributed amount east of the Blue Ridge, 6-10" (or 12") area-wide.
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Evaluating the ICON and all, I know...but beyond the south shift of the relative max zone, overall it looks notably drier (just going by snow amounts on this animation; I'd guess the QPF is correspondingly lower).
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Snowing at a good clip here in the Bethesda area...some Hugh Jass flakes, too!!
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That is true, I have to say! During the 2016 blizzard, I was up most of that night, maybe catching a nap here and there in amongst Jebwalks, taking photos, and regular snowfall measurements. What's funny is that I was a bit worried someone would have called the cops on me, wondering why there was some whacko wandering around in the snow with a yardstick and a camera around his neck in the middle of the night!!!
