Scarlet Pimpernel

Yeah I saw that on the above loop of the 12km...it's actually shifted south vs. 06Z. Question..did the 3km NAM depict the same extreme dry-slot that is visible on the 12km?

All good...I figured you were probably pretty busy (been so myself as well!). I've actually been taking off work through the Holidays (had use/lose leave to take!!) and start back tomorrow. What timing, with this event occurring, hahaha! But I work from home on Mondays so I don't have to go anywhere.

Haha, I was just going to say, we still have a full day or so of models to stress over!

I really think area-wide will do fine...meaning from about the MD/PA border through somewhere south of the DC area. Everyone is freaking out about where the "max" location is, etc., but it's shaping up as a warning-level event for all. Just looking at the LWX page, the watch covers the entire area. How are you doing, friend? Hope all is well and that you had a great Holiday!

It appears more like the amounts expanded north, not so much a "shift" per se. Which is also good!

That's quite a broad, evenly distributed amount east of the Blue Ridge, 6-10" (or 12") area-wide.

Evaluating the ICON and all, I know...but beyond the south shift of the relative max zone, overall it looks notably drier (just going by snow amounts on this animation; I'd guess the QPF is correspondingly lower).

Snowing at a good clip here in the Bethesda area...some Hugh Jass flakes, too!!

That is true, I have to say! During the 2016 blizzard, I was up most of that night, maybe catching a nap here and there in amongst Jebwalks, taking photos, and regular snowfall measurements. What's funny is that I was a bit worried someone would have called the cops on me, wondering why there was some whacko wandering around in the snow with a yardstick and a camera around his neck in the middle of the night!!!

Yup! Love me some "Emperor!" Not sure if I mentioned this but years ago when I was still living in Atlanta, I saw the Atlanta Symphony do a sort of "farewell" tour for their musical director/conductor at the time, Yoel Levi. He did the Beethoven series, all symphonies and piano concertos. I was fortunate enough to see some of these (I was a relatively poor grad student at the time, but dammit, who needs to eat, gotta get tickets to live Beethoven performances! ), including the 5th and 9th symphonies, and the 5th piano concerto! Just amazing!

OK, I admit, I initially mis-read that as "SLEET deprived" and thought "WTF?!"!!! But yeah, if this all comes about as indicated, need to save up on sleep in the next couple of days to stay up late Sunday night!

Yes it is...oy Gevalt, it's getting thick in there with the doom posting! Not surprising though.

Actually, it kinda-sorta is in a way. Looking at that 2-m temperature plot @snowfan showed above, you can see the signature. So I'd guess that "rain" in the corresponding plot would actually be sleet/freezing rain (the ICON plots for some reason don't show a different color for freezing precip, it's all greens). But yeah, why parse and stress the thermals of that model right now?

Gosh, I'd love to help you finish the cottage cheese, but I'll grit my teeth and settle for one of those beers instead!! (Oh wait! I see yogurt in there too...hang on a sec!)

Yeah, that'll happen when...

Yeah...just going by that 0.5" QPF line, it's definitely farther north and has a more west-east orientation.

Champagne induced PBP? I'm all in!

FYP...

I've got the extended edition of the trilogy...it's great! Yeah, impossible to see it too many times...I've seen the trilogy several times over the years. My favorite scenes that I can watch again and again (from Return of the King) are the lighting of the beacons, ride of the Rohirrim battle, and the final battle at the gates of Mordor.

I'm already on champagne, watching LOTR Return of the King! Will feel funky enough by the time the 00Z PBP begins!

Merry New Year (a little early), to my crazy snow-loving weather family! Here's hoping we have an exciting month of winter weather ahead! Enjoying some champagne while watching LOTR Return of the King until midnight!!

...or the day after!

Oui, oui...and lots of it!!

I hear you...those posts about "showing all possibilities and claiming victory afterward" annoy me because they are simply false and simplistic. That kind of comment shows a real lack of understanding of just how model ensemble systems work. There is no showing of "every possibility". If that were literally true and taken to its illogical end, we'd see forecast QPF or snow of 0" to infinity inches (or some other ridiculous range). That's not how they work. Ensembles for a particular modeling system operate under the constraints of how the physics and dynamics of that modeling system are programmed. The initial conditions are perturbed in various ways (different Centers use different techniques), and a certain number of ensemble members are produced, based upon computational resources, etc. Do the ensembles sometimes show a wide range of solutions? Sure! Are the perfect or always great? Of course not! But they're a tool. You look at them as a whole, you look at the mean, you try to find where there are potentially two camps or groupings of solutions, etc. And you can compare what different model ensemble products are showing (EPS vs. GFS, for example). They also give you an idea of how "confident" one can be in a model's overall interpretation of a solution, e.g., if the ensembles are grouped more closely and the deterministic counterpart is within that envelope of solutions. Sorry to go off on a rant here, it wasn't aimed at you, I was just expounding a bit on what you said because I likewise get aggravated at comments like that (from this particular poster or others who say the same).