Scarlet Pimpernel

52 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Off topic. But On Dec 31st at 2am we did the 13 mile march from Trenton to Princeton. Full gear and muskets sling. I did the whole thing, didn't once need to get in the chase car. I was proud of myself. My body held up. Without sleep, my mind started to go. I was thinking and saying things that didn't make sense. 

40  white dudes dressed in 18th century clothes walking through Trenton at 2am with guns just as the bars are letting out. Can you imagine the reaction that got? I can!

I bet it would have been amusing to see a bunch of drunken people stumbling out of the bars, looking at you all...and wondering how they stepped out into the wrong century! 

17 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I thought the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor... 

Right you are!  Hence, "Hessian" troops! 

14 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I feel ya Rev. The days when General Washington lead the troops across the frozen Chesapeake and surprised the Brits in Delaware  are gone.

I think you mean the time that Gen. Washington surprised the Hessian troops at Pearl Harbor and prevented them from bombing it! 

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now this part here...for me, it's not necessarily about "offsetting" the past 7. Those are past now. But it's the fact that if we don't see a MECS or HECS this season, we may be waiting even longer than the 8 years we already have been. And overall, we may be waiting longer for an above average season if we don't get it here. I know I don't want to have to wait through two more ninas and who knows what else...so there is more worry than usual about this year producing...because there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond this year.

I get what you're saying about focusing on the here and now...I certainly did that last week. I enjoyed the heck out of those 8-9" (even made a snow angel...despite the fact that I forgot to move my legs...been awhile so I'm rusty ).

I get that.  But one needs to step back and not assume that just because some indices or the Nino phase look unfavorable for awhile starting next year, that it means NOTHING in any particular winter season and everything is shit the blinds awful.  I'm not going to sit here and expect it will be great by any means.  But let's worry about next winter...or the next 8!...as they come.  Sure, we may have a sucky or more hostile look next year, but what if we get a lucky time or two where we get a decent or better snow event?  It could happen.  Nothing precludes that.  That's how I'm looking at it for now.

Snow angels?  Now that's something I haven't done for years!!!  LOL!!!

On 1/20/2024 at 10:42 PM, clskinsfan said:

Come to the bridge friends. 

Why is the Reaper messing with the Golden Gate Bridge???  Is this what he does in his retirement??? 

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

People need to be more compassionate given the unprecedented stretch we've been through. There is no arguing how bad it's been. So what is all this "Ugghhh why are people complaining???" Uh...hello? Have you seen the dang BWI/DCA snow totals lately?

It's not really that people "don't understand that" (in relation to the awful 7 year stretch of snow, or lack thereof!).  It's that probably a lot of people don't need to keep hearing that if we don't score big with some large amount of snow in DC/Balt in a Nino year that we "should" do so, then we're doomed and will suck even more...even if we have a GOOD winter this year in the end.  I posted something along these lines in the medium range thread a short while ago.  I get the overall long term implications, or potential implications.  But we don't need to hear it pounded at us over and over and over again, or how this pattern looks great but here's how we can really fail despite that, etc.  Let's just at least for the most part focus on this winter for what it is and how it goes.  OK, so if we don't "win" in a huge 63-3 UGA/FSU type Orange Bowl blowout, but if we win like a 34-13 Michigan CFP championship, are we a failure?  Seriously, I'll worry about next winter when it gets closer, same with the winters after that.  Yes, I get that it's been God-awful for years and I get that this makes any snow lover nervous about any future prospects.  But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"'

ETA:  I got literally 0.5" snow in the pre-dawn hours on Feb. 1 last year that was gone by 10AM.  We had a ridiculously warm Jan-Feb last year with almost literally zero tracking that was worthwhile all winter.  The only other snow I saw outside that half inch was some snow TV for a couple of hours near the end of Feb. that didn't stick.  This year I've seen 9.5" thus far along with a rather nice cold week and snow cover for a week.  Last year, the only cold was like 2 days around Christmas and zero snow cover for more than 2 hours.  Yeah I know, beating last year is a low bar.  But let's try to take this winter for what we can get instead of trying to pigeon-hole it into something that it SHOULD be or it's a failure even if it's not.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The GFS is the only one tho 

Well, if you want to go all "Highlander", there can be only one! 

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1750268015575232715?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

Sistine Chapel- there it is 

But I've seen the Sistine Chapel on the head of a pin!!!

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane

gotta suck to be that jaded

A-freakin'-men!!  You said this a lot more diplomatically than I could!   This place sometimes, I swear!

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

H5 looks great. Near perfect. But what matters is what we have at the surface. How cold does it get, not just when it's dry, but when it's precipitating. Do we get a good high to the north when we get an incoming wave? Where does the r/s line lie? Those details obviously can't be resolved this far out, and I'd be highly skeptical of snow maps at 3 weeks out. Take last week for example - 3 weeks or even 1 week prior, snow maps barely showed an inch and we ended up getting ~10 in one week! I don't remember seeing a snow map like that on the weeklies that far out. If anything, they were further north across PA into SNE, even up until 2 days before the second wave, and then it dunked south at the last possible minute.

Agree.  I'm very encouraged and excited about what the overall pattern has looked like on the ensembles and longer range extended ensembles.  And it's shown up for some time now, apparently not being kicked farther out in time.  At this point, all you can do is look at the overall flow and assess that, really.  Yeah, in the end as we get into that time frame, all that matters is what happens with the sensible weather.  It may end up being epic or really good, or we could get bad luck and get screwed...I'm not going to let that worry me at this point.  We can evaluate that as it arrives, and I don't really think we'll end up with an anemic remainder of this winter.  While I get some concern or confusion over why a snow map would appear to be incongruous with the advertised 500-mb flow, I'm not sure if we should really much care what a snow map 2+ weeks out shows.  How many times have we looked at long range ensembles snow maps or Euro weekly snows that pounded us with a ton of snow over a 3 week period, yet it never came about?  Of course at the time most people laughed off those clown maps, so why should we now take the "opposite" with any less of a grain of salt?

On a side-note, while the discussion of climo and the implications of how well (or not well) we do this winter plays into that is interesting and worthwhile, I really wish we could mostly focus on the here and now.  Just deal with this winter for this winter's sake, rather than thinking "if we don't get 30-40 inches in DC at a time we should do really well with a Nino...then we're doomed for X number of subsequent years and our climo will suck even worse donkey balls because we're headed into a Nina starting next year!!!"  Can we just get through this season first and try to enjoy what we get?  So if we by chance get a decent HECS storm or a couple of really good MECS-level events, etc., but don't get a "blowout win" (even if we get a "win" all the same) on the total snowfall in the end, are we going to pull our hair out that we failed and are doomed?  I sure hope not.

LOL at the GFS, out at the end of its run!  @Ji already mentioned above that it's actually trying to set up a MECS at that time, whatever it's worth.  Could that be the @psuhoffman "getting snow in an imperfect setup" scenario?  The 500-mb pattern is a mess, lots of moving parts (yeah, I know, and ops at range, but...).  I guess if things are actually trending better toward the 2nd week of February, this would perhaps indicate a lead into that transition?

8 hours ago, ravensrule said:

LFG. What a great game. The D was monstrous flying all over the field. After a slow start LJ looked like an MVP. It’s a shame the Niners won. They were only team left in the playoffs who concerned me even slightly. See you at the bank next Sunday at 3:00 pm. 

Yeah, Ravens look quite formidable for sure.  While the 49ers might be their toughest competition (assuming both end up in the SB), at this point I don't see how SF overcomes that.  I mean, the Ravens did beat them soundly on the road.  I'm sure SF would adjust but I don't see much of anyone beating Baltimore if they keep playing at that level.  And I actually wouldn't totally rule out the Lions pulling an upset win next week for the NFC championship.

Definitely very wintry out today!  Got this photo of a cardinal in the snow, they are such stunning birds especially with the red against the white of the snow!

I really look forward to celebrating another GUYS FOLKS day again this winter!! 

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

OPE YOU DONT EAN E

(da n keyboard)

Dafuq?!?!?!?! 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February.  The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while.  Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good.  That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern.  

As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again.  But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was.  I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm.  I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches.  

1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities.  My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those.  And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those.  Lately its all rain even in some of those places.  We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad.  

Some people don't agree with me on this.  And that is fine.  It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways.  

That's fine...you were looking at a bit larger picture than what my comment was referring to.  I was stating that it looked like crap and would be in any situation or time.  I realize now that you were pointing to the fact that it looks remarkably warm damn near across the entire CONUS.  Which gets to the "elephant in the room" discussion that I won't delve into here, but don't get me wrong, I am absolutely NOT a climate change denier, and I am not disputing your (or anyone else's) assessment on that.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th.  

Ahhh, so THAT'S why the pattern change is holding off!!!  Models and ensembles actually have your calendar programmed in now??? 

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It's just a troll job.

I know, I know...but it's just not funny especially coming from someone who is well respected and knowledgeable (and I very much respect PSU's input and knowledge, don't get me wrong!).  We get enough "regular" non-trolling whining and complaining in here as it is, why add to it?

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I get what you're driving at, but I also don't see a high pressure in Quebec?

I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look.  But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible.  It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better.  We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe.

Just now, 87storms said:

Yep, that matches my records lol.  I was living in downtown Bethesda at the time.

Yup, that's where I'm at now (and was at the time)!  What was so striking about that first week of March 2015 is the fact that we actually got ice in the middle of the day, in March, and then that neat snow event a few days later.  Likewise, 2014 was just incredible with the amount of snow we got in March!

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

You might be referring to 2014.  We had 3 snowfalls spread out through the month.  We did get one in early March '15, too.  I took a rack of pics/vids from both of those winters...I've got a legit media diary of events from 2013 to 2019 lol.

I think both you and @Bob Chill are correct.  In March 2014 we had 3 notable events...one early in the month (5.3" where I am), one on St. Patrick's Day (8"), and one on March 25 (3").  We even got a quick inch of snow on (I believe) the 30th after cold rain most of that day.  That was a crazy, snowy March in a remarkable wall-to-wall winter.

In 2015, I recall some light snow and decent icing around March 1-2, and more ice around the 3rd.  Then we got a nice 6.5" snow on March 5.  February that year featured extremely cold temperatures and a couple of solid events.

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

30/19 5N Frederick

A crisp winter night awaiting a winter wonderland by the morning. I’ll be up very late tonight. Company is staying so they can catch an evening flight tomorrow to Iceland. Need to prep for the time change. Both meteorologists. We are going to stay up and when it snows, go for a Sheetz run. 
 

What an awesome week I planned for this staycation. I hope my work is handling things okay. It’ll be nice to go back fully recharged and ready to roll. Let’s rock 

A houseful of meteorologists, all geeking out on the upcoming snow???  Oh my!  I think that's illegal in like 32 states or something!

Seriously though, glad you enjoyed a good week off, especially with such a wintry and cold week!  Awesome!

24 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads...

 

Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once.  People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!!

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Most recent HRRR has first flakes out here around midnight. And yes I am drunk and imby posting. Block me if it bothers you. 

Drunk...watching the HRRR...oh my!

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One more run with the same trend could make this event bigger than Tuesday!

 

Well, let's not go overboard here!  But your overall point is valid, we could well over-perform on this one, hopefully.  Certainly think a general 2-4" (DC metro area) is well on the table, which is a lot better than we were looking at the other day.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

Yeah I was kind of looking at that, even if it's an ops deterministic at that range.  Those are some serious HP systems, and even if they tend to get "kicked out" (with a +NAO), the implication seems to be there's still some cold air around and not far away.  All the freaking out over next week's warmup seems a bit odd to me...for the past week, it's been WELL KNOWN (or so I thought!) that after this weekend, we'd be looking at a relax or warmup pattern for 7-10 days or there about.  This is no surprise.  Will it be a "torch"?  I don't know, but even if it is relatively speaking, wouldn't it be good at least if the cold air source region in Canada remains cold (i.e., if Canada doesn't get flooded with Pac puke)?  As you said above, this isn't the same kind of thing that we had coming out of December.  I hold out reasonable hope and optimism that we have a favorable pattern sometime by the first part of February, and hopefully a return to some good -NAO blocking.  In any event, the indications are for a pretty good +PNA ridge to form sometime toward the end of this month or so.  I seriously don't think we get screwed for all of February into the first half of March (at least not yet, LOL!!).