Scarlet Pimpernel

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

ALEET



.

That digging trough around OK/TX/Arklatex region is very notably sharper than 00Z and 06Z.

Just now, Plow'n said:

I make a living off of snow, from bwi to dca so I have a hard time understanding some of these "hard times" over snow models. If it's a hobby, I get it. I'm here to learn and get a "non-hyped" 3rd party opinion from independent meteorologists who I mentioned above

Those handful of posters you mentioned are good and worth paying attention to for sure.  Unfortunately, you also have to sift through all the chaff (i.e., bullshit!) from those who inundate threads with complaining comments!  But don't let that deter you!  There is a lot of good information in here despite that.

3 minutes ago, Plow'n said:

There are about 5 of you who know what they're talking about. I'm no wx man nor do I pretend to be. Outside of those 5 all the rest of you guys do is btch and complain about every single model run... the seasoned vets and experienced are obvious. Psu, chill etc. The rest just stfu and quit turning a potential 3" storm into 30 pages of crying. It's ridiculous. We're all trying to learn from people on here who know their sh!t but some of you insist on trying to speak the lingo and you get it wrong. It's embarrassing, you sound like biden..

Well, I'm not one of those who will sh*t all over a thread because I'm pissed the models suck for snow!  Don't get me wrong, I surely get disappointed when things don't work, but I don't post it all over the damned place.  But honestly, I know what you mean and I know exactly those who you are referring to that do precisely that.  And it's driven off some of the better posters on here, unfortunately.  It pisses me off as well (I really should use the ignore feature, yeah, I know!).  It's beyond annoying to read page after page and post after post of verbal diarrhea complaining about stuff.  One or two saying "well, this doesn't look good" is fine, but it turns into a bitch-fest among a handful of posters.

18 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Thanks mappy!  I know you have been here  long time as well as Ji.  I should have mentioned you earlier.  I still don't get the cray cray on here about snow and why people fight about snow (regarding model runs, Kuchera rates, etc..). WTF?

Definitely a level of cray-cray here (as you've discovered!).  It's just what we do, hahaha!  But despite some posters who can be aggravating or all the tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth with every snow fail, this is a fun place to be honest!  There are some good and highly knowledgeable folks here, and some cool people (including @mappy!!)...I think there are many who have a good sense of humor even in the face of failures.

(ETA:  Sometimes, I seriously have to ask myself why the f**k I care about frozen water falling from the sky and get disappointed when it doesn't happen, LOL!!! )

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

The southeast forum is dead so I have relocated here.  

Sadly, it's not much less dead around here given recent trends for any snow in these parts!!!  But welcome! 

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

When all other guidance has abandoned us… you know what time it is…. NAMing time

"I give you the NAM, weenies of the mid-Atlantic Shire.  May it give you snow when all other guidance abandons you!"

Just now, stormtracker said:

Getting punchy in here.

Gotta laugh at something.  I'd rather have it getting FOLKS-y instead!!

Just now, WxMan1 said:

Oh believe me, I did too! I think it's pronounced "Foo Chi".

Haha, I figured it had to be something like that, but still...in my mind I was thinking, well, you know!  Hell, gotta find humor in anything at this point!

3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

If it helps (and no it doesn't), the 0.25 degree experimental FuXi ECMWF ML model gives our area (I think) between .15 and .25 of liquid equivalent QPF Mon night into Tue. A band of overrunning snow north of a flat wave/eventual weak low off the Mid Atlc coast. 

MSLP and 850 mb wind speed:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401121200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401160600

12 hr QPF (4-5mm through 12Z Tue...another 0.5 to 1 mm through 00Z Wed...:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401121200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401130000

This particular version has been verifying fairly well of late.

 

Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!!

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

No worries, and I’ve seen it.

Great film version of that story!  ("They seek him here, they seek him there, those Frenchies seek him everywhere!  Is he in Heaven?  Or is he in Hell?  That damn'ed elusive Pimpernel!" )

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

No. Thanks for the lesson but that’s not what I meant. And I can already tell that I am incorrect.

Hahaha!  Sorry about that!  But now you know a good movie to catch sometime! 

8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is Scarlet the dude???

If you're referring to my screen name, it's from the novel and movie "The Scarlet Pimpernel"...and the image is of the actor Leslie Howard who played that role in the 1934 movie (an absolute classic!!!  He was also Ashley Wilkes in "Gone with the Wind").

46 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Negative

Agree.  It's childish and juvenile, to be honest.  I mean, sometimes I see some good input on his part but when things go awry even slightly, it's comment after comment of complaints...like "whaaaa!  Mommy, it's not going to snow!!."  I get that it's probably his "schtick" or whatever, but it's old.  I should just learn to use the ignore button, I know!  But like I said, the occasional good input keeps me from pulling that trigger and I generally just don't respond to his posts that are like that anyhow, LOL!!!

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

GEFS is gonna be a huge move from 12z…


.

????

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Every time a storm 

 

To make PSU et all happy.

 

It makes me say

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution. 

Thing I like about this is how the cold air (in the GFS) is still pretty well locked despite the low tucking in a bit more.  Just looking at the 2-m temps, for instance, it's in the mid-20s to near 30ish throughout Tuesday before they crash that evening.  Mid-levels do get dicey-er during Tuesday for a time, but no point parsing such details at this point.

Question, for those who have delved deeper into this than I have.  There's been discussion that the models won't have the best handle on this system until the GL cutter moves out (approx. Saturday).  How have the Euro and GFS handled the location, strength, etc. of that cutter relative to each other?  Obviously that's not the only piece here but it is a big player in the overall setup.

18Z GFS looks almost like a cross between the Euro and CMC (Euro almost nothing or too far out, CMC too close and warm)...I'm speaking in terms of the outcome, sort of.

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, you're almost at immunity from ban line.  one of my faves

Hilarious movie, with one of the best movie-rants ever by Steve Martin!

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FOLKS....

I'm guessing "FOLKS..." is the new "Jaws music"!!

Why do I sense a Piss Boy insult is about to be tossed around in the medium range thread, with all the models useful/not useful argument going on!!! 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually agree with this.  This isnt good.  Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB.  End times man, end times.  

Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria!

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3

It looks like it's already adjusting, or trying to so to speak.

Just now, stormtracker said:

1-3" area wide. 1 toward the cities..3 for Cape.   So timing has moved toward the Euro.  We're not done yet yall!  See ya at 0z

Just now, psuhoffman said:

it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat.  

Yup...despite it sliding away, I actually like the larger scale changes in some weird fashion and that it's trending toward the Euro-type solution.  And even still, we manage to squeeze some light snow out of it.  I am feeling more confident in the probability for at least more than a dusting from this, and it will also be quite cold.  So definitely a wintry feel.

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure WW even realizes it but that EPS 6hr precip and 850 map from 0z was absolutely screaming for a smoothed over blend of indiv ens. Talk about a jump. 6z gfs took a big step as well. Awaiting the gefs.

Time to track...again. let's ride.

17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

So many elephants

...So few rooms!