Scarlet Pimpernel

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Time to see what new shit the GFS is gonna cook up

Probably some meteorologically impossible, physics-defying, thermodynamics-defying solution! 

(But seriously, my guess is it will show something like 12Z, with a suppressed solution).

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Uh......not quite a F word..but...interesting

More like the "D" word...Dafuq is the Euro doing??? 

So yeah, silly to get much into details I know, but what do temps look like throughout this...thing?

Just now, Heisy said:

Yea so I don’t think it’s gonna play out how the euro just spit out. Lol. Almost looks like march 4-6 2001 type vibe with both ULLs merging, but farther South. Still, have to monitor what happens with the shredder and the main wave. Delicate balance like I said before.


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Yeah highly unlikely to go down that exact way, though it's amusing to see!  But...given how ridonculous (did I get that right?) the pattern is looking to be, who the f knows?  If it were to actually happen, I almost wouldn't be totally surprised...or if something similar to what it's showing.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, we know this ain't happening, but it's entertaining. 

OK so honestly...did you or anyone even think the Euro would end up evolving like this after what it looked like a few frames earlier?!?!  That's some bizarre sh*t!  Entertaining for sure.  Who said European theater wasn't fun? 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro dipping into that Marion Barry supply

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This run is probably a 1/10000000 type progression lol. There’s no way those two waves interact like that at our latitude lol


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I'll take what the Euro is smokin'...if anything because it's so damned crazy!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

WTF is the euro doing...Low on the coast, but wound tight..precip field is small

Stemwinder??? 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a major shift from 6z...I'm sure we're going to see wild swings and some wild solutions between now and the 5th.   

Yup, we're going to see many solutions over the next few days most likely.  Right now, I'm kind of in agreement with the thinking that @psuhoffman mentioned above, that this will probably be more suppressed for the most part in the end.  But even if we don't get in on the best, we still could quite possibly get something out of it.  Just going to have to wait and watch patiently.  One small thing I noticed, for whatever it's worth...the 2-m temperatures around that time have been showing up as colder.  I know you have to take the GFS thermals with a grain of salt out in that range, but not too long ago it was getting us well up into the 40s even with that high moving in.  Of course, the overall look has changed in that time too, to an extent.

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

  Wait, who were you?

Why, sir, I was the same person I am now!!! 

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Did you think by next week 2/3 we begin to see the modeled snow mean start to move South closer to our area, as well as increase? 

Or, do you tyhink it is still too early. 

I don't typically look at or pay much attention to those snow maps, but a couple of people the other day posted the Euro extended mean and extended control, and there was a mention that those had a fair bit more snow for this area compared to awhile back.  So maybe it's "moved" that way somewhat?

3 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

So I guess we are on pace for a region wide BECS on or around the 17th of February.  But after that 50” snow- what’s next?  Lol

LOL, I always found that term "BECS" amusing, like the elusive unicorn of huge snowstorms..."Biblical" East Coast Snowstorm, where Moses must part the 30 foot drifts of snow along the Beltway or something! 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not gonna lie: For a little while I thought you were a poster I wasn't familiar with...did not realize you had changed your name until a few days ago, lol I was like "Oh, somebody else remembered my Beethoven antics!" Hahaha

Haha, yeah, decided to go with a new screen name.  I also considered it back when I first joined this site (when it was "Eastern US WX" at the time!), since I like the Leslie Howard version of The Scarlet Pimpernel!  But I guess you can only change it like once every ridiculous number of days (30,000??), so basically you can only change it once and that's it, I guess unless one asks permission to change again.  Not that I want to now, kinda like this one better than what I had before but I got so used to that I didn't bother for a long time until recently hahaha!

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny

As long as it's not kick-canny!!   But seriously, yeah, the level of consistency with that look even as it is now almost approaching the edge of the ops range is unreal.  Let's hope it is real!!

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month. 

This is true...but just looking at DCA they were actually a hair (ass hair, according to @stormtracker? ) colder than normal earlier this week.  Like a degree or less I think.  But yeah, a 60+ degree day yesterday and pushing 80 today along with lows that didn't even dip into the 40s will blow that to being above normal easily.

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well

We've seen that happen, too, in the past.  As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic.  From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter.  We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle.  Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events.  No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm).  Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time.

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS

it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010

And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs?  The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly.  To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that.  I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period.  Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March.  At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

NOOOOO sir! You know the rules: We urbanites don't get KUs after PD...so request denied 

1 minute ago, WeatherShak said:

DT calling for a “Pamela Anderson pattern change” next week

http://

 

 

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First, JB with the Sistine Chapel, and now this?!?!?! 

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff.

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. 20" here that day. 

I wasn't here for that event (hadn't moved to the area just yet), but my understanding is that yeah, it looked like no more than flurries.  Then suddenly the Jan. 24, 2000 18Z Eta (mesoscale model at the time) on the afternoon right before it hit showed the low a lot farther north with warning-level snow.  And it only increased thereafter.  I heard that on the late evening local news/weather, they were scurrying to mention newly-issued winter storm warnings for later that night and the next day.  Gotta love reverse busts!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. 

Here's a more detailed look at this H5 pattern...

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wait, it's the Republicans' fault????   (Just kidding, for anyone who thinks this is possibly too "political" sounding!)

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus christ

 

Barry Bonds called...he wants his 'roids back! 

5 minutes ago, 66degreesnorth said:

Longtime lurker - I live in Chevy Chase DC, fairly close to the DC's highest point, and I've noticed that a blend of BWI/IAD/Tracker/BobChill's yard is always much better approximation for the actual snow we get than DCA. While DCA may be representative of people living in capital hill, it's not a good location for large chunks of the District itself, let alone the inner burbs in Montgomery and Fairfax county. Back to lurking ... 

I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC for several years in the early 2000s before moving to southern MoCo.  I can't say offhand whether the temperatures were much different there compared to DCA; I'd guess not all that much.  But in the time I was in that location I know the snow amounts I received were consistently higher than what came out of DCA.  Anytime I saw reports from a snow event, those in the District proper likewise tended to be higher; that still is the case (e.g., during the 2016 blizzard I recall seeing several 20"+ reports from the District even as DCA recorded "only" 17.8")  I actually found the snow reports from the National Arboretum to be a reasonable compromise amount for DC proper.

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath. potent omega block

Wow, and that's Feb. 3 while we're still apparently in the "transition" phase or whatever.  Does that big omega block eventually push into the NAO space??  I thought that's what previous extended range indications were.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not everyone lives in DC.  DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter.  People know their climo.  Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope.  But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter.  Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March.  

Right.  I live on the northwest side of DC in suburban MD, but we've had some good March events over the years.  Not "double digits" for the month outside of 2014, but solid events in the early to middle part of the month, and even some halfway decent ones later in March (twice it snowed on my birthday, March 25, like 3-4"!).  Just off the top of my head, the good events I recall occurring in this area in March were 2009 (I actually lived in DC proper at that time), 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022.  That's a lot of March events, in my opinion, even if not huge.

At least a couple of those followed on the heels of a solid and wintry February.