Scarlet Pimpernel

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yes, as if anything has been lost in an event that may or may not come to fruition at some point in the future.

Agree.  Fact is, potential is there not just for next weekend but some period beyond that as well.  It doesn't appear to be wall to wall shit the blinds.  (Oh no, I posted medium range discussion in the Banter thread rather than banter in the Medium Range thread!!! LOL!! )

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wake up, get a coffee and venture into the LR thread.. snow maps, tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth, winter over galore lol. Ofc.

FYP a little!!   I swear, the freak out "OMG, I lost 8" snow since the last run, we suck, it's done!"

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

To post there do you have to be in your mom’s basement?  Eating hot pockets?

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You said .70 was light.  We are talking about a model, not what you think will happen.

Our boats are floating well.  Because we know that .7 of QPF isn't "light".  Consider THAT.

Did we find another Rev War Re-enactor???  What the Hessian is going on??? 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah, not FOLKS, but it's SECS'y

Very much so, agreed!  Would take that in a minute!

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still moderate snow at 15z.  This is a good ass run

Could it be...FOLKSY, even??  Of course, 200 hours out, whatever, but I am just glad to see a semi-consistent possibility across all model guidance right now.  Euro also looked good at 12Z for the most part.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Never mind NS SW dives across the top and saves the day. What do I know. Horrific analysis. Randy so sorry. I’m out. 

I think you're fine, probably no need to apologize.  Everyone here respects your analysis.  Even if you're making less than $150K hahaha!  You always appropriately correct or re-state things when required.  Besides, at this time range those smaller details like NS shortwaves and such are going to move around every cycle.  Key takeaway is there is a solid signal for us in that time period, seems like one or two waves in there that could work?

Decent light snow has been falling for about the past hour or so.  Small flake size.

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Jack shit here

Wow...that's not a very nice thing for Jack to do at your place!! 

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo as a snow town. The Mid Atlantic in winter is like watching a magnificent fish glide through water. Heck we even managed a snow and sleet storm at 16 degrees when the northern and southern streams phased over Kansas. I-95 is the opposite of cooked. Mountains have even more of a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the Snow Bros Anonymous meeting. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the benefit of being in the MA, when its super cold it's congrats Bob Chill. When its marginal, it's congrats Georgetown. Any other circumstance and I've just got to take my 151k Denny's salary and rent a cabin out in West Virginia.

Bravo!  Well played!

Just now, Heisy said:

Wacky gfs run, has the WAA thump I mentioned and then redevelops a coastal somehow few days later on

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development.  But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall!  it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes.  But temps look OK verbatim through that time.  And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It definitely fits since it will be impossible to get rid of. 

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the ridge bridge still looks like it’ll only last 3 days then the 11-16th map could pretty much cover the relaxation in its entirety. Which if so shows barely any deviation from the seasonal mean at that time.

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before.  I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March.  I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps.  @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier.  We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I know that, you’re misinterpreting the post. This shows that the euro thinks that the warmup will be muted like all the other ones this season. The map Ji posted shoes us barely deviating from average temps in that period, some areas on the bay even being slightly below average.

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend.  Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one.

ETA:  And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west.

ETA2:  Also, every single model, not just the Euro, is projecting a blast of very cold air through this weekend into the early part of next week.

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the relaxation isn’t enough to cancel out this weekend’s cold is it really that much of a warmup?

The relaxation, however much it may be, doesn't really START until about the middle of next week.  It's from that period onward for however long it is.

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Euro says “what warmup?”

 

Check the dates.  Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week.  Geez.

4 hours ago, ravensrule said:

LFG, reel this big boy in. 

3 hours ago, Scraff said:

Nice! Let’s bring on the VD storm….says @ravensrule

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This reminds me of needabiggerboat or something like that, who probably had the funniest stuff in the history of this forum.  

10 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

He was a funny guy but hasn’t posted in many years. I remember in one of his posts before he disappeared he said he had cancer. 

Sorry to post this many hours later in here (and apologies for the banter), but I haven't been logged in for awhile.  Anyhow, I also remember "needbiggerboat"!!  Yeah, he was funny and I always liked his screen name and user icon pic.  Very sad he disappeared (I recall hearing he did some time ago), and also that he had cancer.  Hope he is doing OK.

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is  (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing?  Sure, it could.  But why must we practically assume it will?  Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look?  Seems that's the general feeling here from several people.  I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter!  And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March.  Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event?  Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

35 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Warmer as in closer to average after exiting the arctic or warmer as in our first 60 since December?

33 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Warmer as in multiple days in the 50s - may or may not make it to 60. 

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise.  Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period.  So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory.  Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight.  I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing.  And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced.  But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March.  And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

17 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

That March 2014 St. Patrick’s Day snowstorm was a good one. Not common, but when it happened, quite a sight.

That event was really cool, in what was a remarkably snowy March in an amazing winter!!  (I got 5.3" on March 2, 8.0" for that St. Pat's snow, another 3" on the 25th, and even a couple tenths right near the end of the month on the backside of some rain).

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts.

Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. 

Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24

This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

Meh...I'd rather see this than nonstop Pac Puke the entire month.  At least could give us some element of decent chances.  I wouldn't take an ensemble QPF amount at face value.  Could it end up just being cold/dry following cold fronts from cutters?  Sure.  But the ensembles are smoothed, and we could also end up with a nicely timed wave with cold air around and get a good event.  You wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell (literally) of even that with a Pac Puke look.

ETA:  Apologies if that came off a bit confrontational or like finger-pointing at you.  Just that the "mood" in here really gets annoying at times, with some people damn near writing off an entire month, etc., or thinking that if we don't get a "big" event (HECS-like) then it's all crap and a waste.  I suspect that if we had gotten some decent or better snow from the thing this weekend, the mood in here would be a LOT better and more positive, and people would be looking forward to whatever we might be able to get in February, with the ensembles showing exactly what they do now.

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

23-24 could count too due to the spectacular failure of the epic blocking.

I would certainly agree with you concerning February 2024 simply because it was hyped so much.  For a couple of weeks before that, all these extended ensembles and weeklies were showing an epic pattern through the entire month of February (and into March).  Like I recall literally day after day people talking about it.  Then it flipped to showing the opposite as we got into February and that month just sucked.  BUT...I will disagree with you that 2023-24 was on the level of 2022-23 simply because we got a couple of decent events within a week around Jan. 15, and we had some legit cold for a period.  We even got a coating in December 2023, for the first time in any December in some years.  In 2022-23, there was literally NOTHING and it was very warm throughout; the only "exciting" thing that season was the Arctic blast around Christmas that didn't give us anything but 2-3 cold days.