Scarlet Pimpernel

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the last time the inner burbs/DC really did well in a sleet bomb was like... March 2018? Or was that 2017?  I recall playing with my kid in a thick crust of pellets.

Anyway, I'll believe the ice accums when I see what temps are around my neck of the woods on Friday during the day.

Trying to head out of town Sat AM... will be a slushy passable mess by then on our always busy roads, I'm sure.

I don't recall that exactly...but I do remember sometime around then we were "supposed" to get a sleet bomb and it wasn't much of anything.  The last legit one I remember actually getting was the Valentine's Day 2007 storm, we just missed out on heavy snow and got like 3" sleet (areas to the east/southeast of DC got serious ice), which froze into a block of ice right afterward.

20 minutes ago, IronTy said:

If him and JB ever shook hands it would be like a matter/antimatter annihilation.  

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah man tighten up!! Lol

Uhhh...errrr...given the RR context, that may not have been the best choice of words!!!  Or maybe my mind is...oh, nevermind! 

Now, back to our regularly scheduled sleet and ice bomb!

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

You still wake up in the dark, don't you, to that awful screaming of the lambs?  Try some fava beans with a nice chianti! 

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me 

I'll double your exactly and agree!  This may be a little off-topic, but what you allude to about modes of thinking is the reason I roll my eyes when I hear people say how 2015-16 was totally sucky and a torch except for the one big storm in January.  Well...that's a rather large "exception" ("Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?")!!  Not to mention, I believe that thinking is skewed by the ridiculous month-long torch in December, which averaged +8 to +10 for the month across the area.  But take a look at January and February, at just DCA for example.  We were 2-3 degrees colder than normal in January and about normal (very slightly below) in February.  Yeah, the last week or so of that February got warm, but let's not pretend that the big January blizzard was the only chance we had and everything else was wall-to-wall torch.  We did get a rather interesting event around Presidents' Day, ice/snow, that seems to slip under the radar in recalling that season.  Did we have other chances in the 6 week period from early January to mid-late February?  Maybe, I don't exactly recall...but I bet if we got just one more moderate advisory or warning-level event people wouldn't be saying it was a failure "except for one event".  Heck, I still like the winter of 2006-07...after a warm December and first part of January, things flipped and we had an extremely cold February.  Yeah, we missed out on big snow for that Valentine's Day (but 3" sleet and ice followed by very cold!), but we did have chances and I still like that season even though it was below normal in terms of actual snow.  Or even 2014-15...sucky until Valentine's Day that year, and we had a concentrated 3-4 week period of intense winter!  But people don't talk about how that winter was all crap "other than..."

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve…

The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA.

The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

Average that out and we're looking pretty good!! 

But seriously, yeah, there's a lot going on with how this will all evolve.  I mean hell, just look at the mood the past week or so in this place!  One day everyone's all high about how we actually have a couple of potential events, joking about "what Christmas torch?", and the next when that's not being modeled anymore everyone is all gloom and doom, saying we're toast until at least mid-January.

I just love the sunset color at this time of year!!

14 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Honestly, went through a majority of Christmases in Midland in the low 50s with a chilly morning. Wasn't bad at all. Just don't want humidity unless snow is involved. Keep it dry and coolish and I'm fine.

Same here.  I don't expect snowy Christmases (or Decembers in general) in the DMV area anyhow.  But a nice, chilly day in the 40s or so is fine, and at least not a washout with rain.  Or where it feels humid as you say!  In 2015 here, we had that ridiculous +8 or so departure for the month (thank God that didn't happen in July!).  It was literally uncomfortably warm and humid after some heavy rain late evening on Christmas Eve.

Now, growing up in northeast Ohio, different story!  Definitely plenty of cold and snowy Decembers and Christmases there which was always great.  Actually I recall one of the most striking reversals in terms of Christmas temperatures.  In 1982, Cleveland set a record high on Christmas of 66 degrees (that was a crap winter all around).  Exactly one year later in 1983, they set a record low of -10, brutal cold and wind all day with some Lake effect snow, temperatures barely got into the single digits for highs.

35 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll take option one please.

Meh...72" is like being fringed!

24 minutes ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

You're killing me, Smalls! 

Yeah that was the ultimate true statement...100% chance of weather and all models and every ensemble agrees on that!  Don't forget the known knowns and known unknowns too. 

You've probably figured out that this place can go from one extreme to another in almost no time!  I just await some opportunity for @stormtracker with GUYS, FOLKS, JAWS!!

Just now, Terpeast said:

This will be my last one

All joking aside (and you know who I was sort of poking fun at), that is a very reasonable estimate.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

My updated forecast and final call

 

So, not your first final call, or your final initial estimate to be revised later, but an actual final call?? 

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

This is a really nice QPF distribution. Very apparent the banding is going to be impressive north of I-70 to the M/D and north. This would be a classic scenario for 5-9” for those areas. Ratio improvement through the early morning hrs. too. I would be excited if I was up that way. 

I like seeing a consistent ~0.3" QPF in the DC area, my expectation in this area is on the order of 2-4" in a fairly short period of time through early morning.  Tomorrow promises to be quite wintry...it will be clearing out but it will be cold and getting windy, with snow on the ground!

38 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

If that were to verify this forum would probably crash lol

I say let it happen, and let it crash!!!

2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Yeps!  Exactly.  Nice shots!

Thank you!  It was amazing.  I looked outside from my apartment and saw the color just in time to rush up to the rooftop deck and grab a few shots before it disappeared.  I love the sunset color at this time of year!

31 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Gorgeous sunset, pink in every direction.

You mean like THIS?  (Took these not long ago, just in time to capture that amazing sunset...and yeah, I enhanced the color)...

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though!

Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. 

If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed 

Yeah that's kind of what I was thinking with my comments above about the broad "bowl" type look.  I would think that at least keeps a fair bit of cold air on this side of the hemisphere, which keeps a solid amount of cold air ever lurking in Canada.  If we don't have some jacked up ridge form that floods all the cold air out, we can perhaps score what you're mentioning...a CAD overrunning event, and even if it flips to rain, there is still cold air nearby that can come right back in behind the system.  At least that's the hope!

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

This is why us lowland fokes don't have a lot of symphony for you northern fokes

Paging Beethoven (and @stormtracker, @Maestrobjwa...fellow classical music afficionados!)...

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Here you guys go. 

Can you zoom that out to the global scale, please?? 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

You did hit the nail on the head by saying our torch patterns are disintegrating as we get closer....

Well, I sure hope that's the case.  The long post I put above the one with the "Lord, it's a miracle!" gif was just some stuff I observed from cursory looks at the 500-mb flow.  I'd much prefer (and assume others as well) a broad bowl than a pumped up ridge that not only would torch us but would blow away cold air in Canada which would take a longer time to regenerate.

BTW...you don't care for "Shawshank Redemption" (the gif I put up there), with the weenie tag emoji?? 

7 hours ago, bncho said:

0z GFS christmas miracle... they sniff the big ones out early lol 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

475dm north of New Foundland/570dm in Alaska, it's the 13/14, 14/15 pattern. 

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

I can't recall exactly what the overall 2013-14 and 2014-15 500-mb look was like, but yeah.  I somehow seem to remember we really lucked out (particularly in 2013-14) with a more persistent +PNA, we had little or no help on the Atlantic side, and it was a Nina as well.  But it worked out!

Another thing, taking these plots at face value for now even though it's waaay out there in time:  I've noticed the model cycles that look better, less torchy, or even amazing like last night do not amplify things such that we end up with a ridiculous 588+ dm ridge over the East Coast.  Yeah, I know that's obvious, but my point mainly is that while the PNA looks negative, there is a strong ridge over western AK and there's more of a "bowl" like broad trough through Canada and the northern US, with occasional shortwaves pressing down to potentially deliver cold air.  That's not something you see in a wall-to-wall torch pattern, and not something that floods Canada with warm air.  I'm kind of encouraged by that look!  In a way it almost reminds me as well of February 2007, there was a wide, broad trough that covered much of the CONUS, or something like that, which enabled delivery of very cold air from Canada.  If one ignores the color shading for the anomalies on the map above, and just look at the overall height contours, you can maybe see what I mean here (there's also a hint of confluence in the northeast).

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

Thanks for bringing that up; now I have start drinking early!

Starting to get hopeful for Saturday night

Sorry about that, it is a painful memory!  I still recall watching the game and literally started cheering (as were a bunch of other people) because the kick actually looked good, then I saw the refs indicate otherwise.  Only upon replay was it clear it was JUST a bit outside.  Oh well.

Yes, hopeful for Saturday night!  I'm impressed at how bullish LWX is going but makes sense given current indications and trends.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well that would be cathartic! Sounds like we have our goalposts...now we wait, lol

Let's just not pull an FSU with a wide-right miss!  I still remember being there as a grad student for the first "wide right" vs. Miami in 1991 (FSU was ranked #1 and Miami #2 at that time)...ugh!!

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Good lord, 12z GFS pops a 591 dm ridge over us on Christmas Day. Pain.

That would be God-awful to see in JULY (let alone December)!!  We'd be talking triple digits if it were summer!