Scarlet Pimpernel

55 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

God I hate the NAM. 

LOL, is it sucking you back in??  I've about given up much caring about this where I'm at, but yeah, now I suddenly feel a spark of re-interest!

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For years the mjo has done us no good. When the patterns been crap often we’ve filled up pages with hope for an mjo wave headed for 8/1 to save us. It’s never done a damn thing. Usually the wave dies and barely makes it because the base state was hostile to central pac forcing. But even when it did make it at most we would get only a slight dent in the pattern. Maybe it went from god awful to just awful. Then before it did much more than that the wave moved on and we were back to god awful. 
 

So now that we have a Nino and a favorable pattern and forcing base state I hear a drum beat of “the mjo is gonna wreck it” by some. Yea ok. 

I admit to not knowing all the nuances of the MJO, though do know the "warm" and "cold" phases...and don't know how much the ENSO state alters that.  But I have noticed what you're saying here in the past few years.  I can't remember which winter it was recently, but I definitely recall where the MJO was supposed to go into the favorable 8-1-2 phases, and at ridiculously high amplitude.  There was a good bit of talk about how that would turn things around and lots of hope, blah blah blah...and in the end, not much changed.  I'm not saying that the MJO is useless or unimportant by any means, but I just don't know how much of a role it plays or how it modulates depending on various states (ENSO, blocking, etc.).

ETA:  I have noticed that when things look like shit, there's all kinds of attention paid to the MJO as well as the state of the stratospheric vortex and whether it will be disrupted, etc.  When things are doing fine, you don't hear anything about those, or very little.

21 minutes ago, mappy said:

It amazes me every winter that someone questions why the NWS issue watches when and why. Watches will usually be issued regardless of an adjustment to a warning, or an advisory. It’s a watch for winter weather ahead in the next couple days, where probably tomorrow will be adjusted to warnings or advisories. 

Its no different than a severe thunderstorm watch in the summer, where warnings or special weather statements are issued as needed. 

I know, right?! As if there's some magic to whether or not one is issued. Same with blizzard warnings, I swear some people almost seem upset when one is not issued during a major storm and we "only" have a winter storm warning. FFS, people, you get 15" snow and think less of it due to not meeting the technicality of "blizzard!" 

(ETA... And yeah a watch is issued when the potential exists to meet warning-criteria snow over an area, and will be refined later. Not a guarantee you'll get that!) 

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Then what are ensembles?  What's the NBL?  Why do we look at ALL the guidance and not just one model run?  If we could create one perfect model that predicts the weather with 100% accuracy down to the second like in BTTF2 then yes, we could just program that one model, sit back, and let it forecast.  But we don't have that ability.  We know the best models we can currently create are flawed and will not perfectly predict at range.  If you are taking them as they are and using them as a forecast that is user error.  

The skill is seeing all the permutations shown by the various models and interpreting what is most likely to happen within that envelope.  The best are better at that...the rest post 300 hour model plots on twitter and facebook.  

Thanks for this description, PSU...couldn't have said it better myself...spot on!  I know this particular person tends to diss models quite often, and to a point I get that.  People can mis-use them or take some output too much at face value.  However, as you say, they ARE guidance, not forecasts.  Well, perhaps more precisely, each model is a forecast SIMULATION of what the atmosphere would do given a suitable set of initial conditions and the model's own programmed physics and thermodynamics.  It will never be perfect...at least not anytime soon!...because our ability to perfectly model the atmosphere is limited, though it has dramatically improved over the decades.  Even the initial conditions themselves are subject to errors or limitations, being on a discrete grid (plus observation measurement errors, etc.).  I also get a little miffed at this person's occasional statements that ensembles essentially throw out "every possible solution."  Or something to that effect.  Ensembles DO NOT do this, nor are they intended to do so.  They are intended to provide probabilistic information and uncertainty, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THAT MODEL'S PHYSICS.  Obviously there are certain assumptions, such as for a given ensemble suite of a particular base model (GFS, Euro, etc.), each member in that suite has equally likely outcome.  Based on that and other theoretical considerations, this is why the use of the ensemble mean for many parameters (e.g., 500 mb heights) is considered to be the best estimate of an outcome in the medium to longer range.  Or why it's good to look at solution clusters.  The ops of a particular model is essentially just a high res ensemble member when you're looking at that time frame.  Which is obviously why it's annoying for people to toss out a crappy looking 300+ hour GFS deterministic forecast just to make some point about how we suck or whatever.  I know this is very simplified and general, what I said here, but you get the idea.

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs completely phasing the 10th cutter, this might help move the cold push in faster and help build block


.

There is some pretty serious cold behind that avocado as the cutter passes, to be sure.  Both at the surface and 850 mb.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx

Thoughts on this...

I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work.

Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones.  The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it.  

So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 

1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain.  This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario.

2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW.  

I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible.  Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO.  That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to.  I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm.  

Thoughts?  

@psuhoffman, this is a very interesting potential, even if it's not quite so likely at this point.  I'm talking your 2nd one, where the trailing wave is actually "the" one.  Haven't we seen this either occur before, or looked like it could happen but was too little too late for our area?  The scenario sounds a bit familiar from previous events in the past.  So it doesn't seem all that wild to keep in mind.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Anyone forecasting normal or above normal snowfall for this winter is in trouble. We're down like 21-0 in the 3rd 2nd quarter and our offense is doing nothing.

Sounds like the 'Noles during the UGA-FSU game from this weekend!

27 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Well, my New Year’s resolution to stop drinking has gone down in GFS flames…its 5 O’clock somewhere

See, technically you didn't state what you decided to stop drinking.  So it's all good!!! 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now.

Whelp...on to February and March then!!!

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

I shoveled my grass

Yeah, but make sure you don't slant-mow!!  That's cheating!

My assessment of the 12Z model suite today...

Just now, jayyy said:

Models improve their accuracy as we get closer to an event. More current information = more accurate data. Not sure what’s “debunked” about that.

Maybe "debunked" wasn't the correct term...what I meant was, the amount of data "sampled" isn't much different nowadays for any given model cycle.  Reading what you say here, however, I realize you meant the data itself will be different (of course) as you move closer-in.  I can get that...and sorry if I was a bit harsh in my comment, but there's always this "thing" that different model cycles are "better or worse" due to how much data that was input to them.

Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago?  As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP.  That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z.  Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling."

Just now, mattie g said:

Whether people like the idea of jinxes or not, I'm already blaming WxUSAF on the trends for this weekend's threat.

LOL!!!  Well, it's not the "jinxes", it's the same cadre of people who freak out when things look less favorable after they see a couple of runs that looked great.  And sadly, some of those who "freak out" are the more knowledgeable ones, not that they tear hair out and whine like some others, but discussion gets slanted in a doom-and-gloom manner (and yes, talk of "trends!!!").  I'm certainly not one who wants to put my fingers in my ears and cry "lalalala, I can't hear you!" when there's not so good news, but we also don't need incessant repeating "look how all this is wrong!" with every model run that "suddenly" isn't as favorable.

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Wasn't the conversation just a day ago about the envelope of solutions and this is certainly one of them? Of course the perception of some now is that all models are trending towards this one bad run and OMG i just noticed that all of the other runs that were good had this bad look as well. It's insanity...we are basically riding this roller coaster without a seatbelt lol

Yup, that was discussed...and yup, the freak-outs are regular as clockwork!!  People went ga-ga over a couple of runs that gave the DC metro area a foot (admittedly, I got excited too of course!).  And you know, we could well "fail" at least I-95 east.  But even with a "fail" for that area, I still think nearly all of us see some snow, and not just the less than an inch "surprise" we got back in December.  I think we get on the board with decent amounts, and by decent I mean a couple of inches or so.  Won't be perfect and temperatures aren't the best, but whatever.  A few days ago we were all looking at rain.  Of course, those farther west should score pretty big almost regardless of any solution.

Interesting discussion on all the "old" history of this site and its predecessors.  I recall first finding this when it was Eastern US Weather Forums, in January or February 2009.  Strangely, prior to that I was looking at the Accu-Weather forums just to see some discussion but it was a bit jumbled with the organization and didn't like it so much.  Someone on there had a link or a reference to Eastern, so I checked it out and was hooked since!  I didn't join at that time, just read to get information.  The first "real" storm I remember following on Eastern was the early March 2009 event (if anyone else recalls that?), actually staying up late through that weekend reading GFS and Euro discussions!  There wasn't as much talk of ensembles at the time.  I then officially joined Eastern sometime later in 2009, in time for the amazing winter that year!!  Then it got transferred to American Weather Forums I think around January 2011?  So anyone who had an account on Eastern could "re-start" on AmWX.

Oh and on a different topic...I know people joke (sort of) about the weekend rule and snowstorms around here!  Total chance I'm sure that a decent majority tend to occur at that point in a week.  But if you think of it, and if you consider a "weekend" to be Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon (I'm allowing for a day either side, for Monday holidays and for storms that may start just before and continue through the weekend)...that's 4 of 7 days.  So just statistically, you should have storms that tend to occur in that time range!

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

It's gonna hurt if this storm trends the wrong way.  People are starting to have hope again, and hope destroys.

Thank you, Red! 

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

I have a pair of them up in 200 year old black walnut tree. They are very elusive but did see one twice this year. Last year saw them both  together once.  They are Big. 

Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!!  And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive).  They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close.  I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that.  I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast).

OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever.   But how about a pileated woodpecker?  Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos.  You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside.  I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm.  Well, not really, but it sounds good!

27 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Too early to start pre-gaming for the 18z GooFuS? Other Half Green Power DIPA making me feel like happy hour is about to deliver the goods. So much for dry January! It’s about to be wet and white January! Oh god. Too many jokes left tee’d up….
 

Better be careful, that's close to pushing @ravensrule's bat signal right there!  He's already answered a couple of inadvertent ones earlier in this thread! 

But seriously, yes, hoping the 18Z GFS keeps this thing going.  We're going to see things move around back and forth (with attendant mood swings in here every blasted model cycle!), but it would be nice to keep this storm there and alive.

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow. If that happened id shit my drawers!!!

Better than shitting the blinds, that's for sure!! 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Who’s everyone got in the CFP games today?  

Since I have some family members who went to Michigan (and I was one of about 3 people in my HS in Ohio who rooted for them in the UM/OSU game each year!!)...GO BLUE!!!   I'd kinda like to see a UM-Wash final, or at least any final without 'Bama in it (always have been "ABB"...Anybody But 'Bama!!).

Anyone think that if the winner of the CFP is one of the teams with a loss, that there'd be a TON of "unofficial" discussion about whether UGA should actually be #1?  I say this as NO fan of UGA, but consider this:  Georgia had that insane win vs. FSU in the Orange Bowl (albeit against an essentially 3rd string Noles team) and they lost by just 3 points in their conference championship to Alabama.  Other than the Alabama game, they were dominant this season, really.  Regardless, it certainly makes next year's expanded playoff all the more welcoming!

Happy New Year all!  Let's hope we can pull in an area-wide solid event this upcoming weekend.  It's been far too long since we could actually track something realistic and more than a car-topper.

I put this in the medium-range thread at midnight last night, so re-posting here in Banter!!  Trading Places...still a hilarious movie!!!

Merry New Year 2024!!!

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

NOT saying this will be the same or is... but does this have any parallels to Commuteagddeon?  Like wasn't that just cold enough as well?

Just going by memory here, but Commutageddon as I recall was a much more dynamic system (i.e., 500 mb).  Rain changed to sleet/ice...literally like chunks of ice falling from the sky for awhile!...and then to heavy snow.  Lasted about 5 or so hours (8" snow in that time where I am).

(ETA:  There was some snow that fell in the early morning too, I seem to remember?)