Scarlet Pimpernel

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know it’s useless, but I’d appreciate if everyone preemptively promised not to jump when tomorrow’s 12z 12k NAM at 84 hours shows the storm in Detroit. Thanks much!

Yeah, that'll happen when...

15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 

 

12Z

Yeah...just going by that 0.5" QPF line, it's definitely farther north and has a more west-east orientation.  

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm 2 glasses of win and 2 glasses of champagne in.

How?

Last night, I drank lemon drops, old fashioneds, shots of Jameson, glasses of Pinot Noir and a tall G & T.   Was hurting this morning, woke up...sluggish.   ThenI  just made 30 Oyster Rockefeller and now drinking wine and champagne. 

Yall ready for 0z tonight? 

Champagne induced PBP? I'm all in! 

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Reading these comments… PBP tonight is going to be Several of us are already lit

FYP...

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Love that movie. Can’t watch it too many times

I've got the extended edition of the trilogy...it's great!  Yeah, impossible to see it too many times...I've seen the trilogy several times over the years.  My favorite scenes that I can watch again and again (from Return of the King) are the lighting of the beacons, ride of the Rohirrim battle, and the final battle at the gates of Mordor.

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

On my second beer, victory Merry Monkey. We’ll see if I make it through the pbp tonight haha

I'm already on champagne, watching LOTR Return of the King!  Will feel funky enough by the time the 00Z PBP begins!

Merry New Year (a little early), to my crazy snow-loving weather family!  Here's hoping we have an exciting month of winter weather ahead!

Enjoying some champagne while watching LOTR Return of the King until midnight!!

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

Nice to have a snowstorm when it's not 60 degrees the day before. 

...or the day after!

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Bonjour les amis. Gloire aux prévisions météorologiques européennes !

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Oui oui monsieur!

Oui, oui...and lots of it!!

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I’ve got literally zero skin in this game and really couldn’t care less about whether there’s some sort of conspiracy going on with model output. I’m just tired of your regular interjections into discussion threads that say the same thing - “show all possibilities and claim victory afterwards.” Like…who really cares?

I hear you...those posts about "showing all possibilities and claiming victory afterward" annoy me because they are simply false and simplistic.  That kind of comment shows a real lack of understanding of just how model ensemble systems work.  There is no showing of "every possibility".  If that were literally true and taken to its illogical end, we'd see forecast QPF or snow of 0" to infinity inches (or some other ridiculous range).  That's not how they work.  Ensembles for a particular modeling system operate under the constraints of how the physics and dynamics of that modeling system are programmed.  The initial conditions are perturbed in various ways (different Centers use different techniques), and a certain number of ensemble members are produced, based upon computational resources, etc.

Do the ensembles sometimes show a wide range of solutions?  Sure!  Are the perfect or always great?  Of course not!  But they're a tool.  You look at them as a whole, you look at the mean, you try to find where there are potentially two camps or groupings of solutions, etc.  And you can compare what different model ensemble products are showing (EPS vs. GFS, for example).  They also give you an idea of how "confident" one can be in a model's overall interpretation of a solution, e.g., if the ensembles are grouped more closely and the deterministic counterpart is within that envelope of solutions.

Sorry to go off on a rant here, it wasn't aimed at you, I was just expounding a bit on what you said because I likewise get aggravated at comments like that (from this particular poster or others who say the same).

Going to be an interesting first half of January it appears, for sure!  Things will go back and forth on individual vorts and shortwaves, but you have to like the multiple opportunities that seem to be available.  Right now, can't ask for much more than that.

Sad news today...Jimmy Carter passed away at 100 years old.  No matter one's politics, he exemplified what it is to be an upstanding and generous human being.  He will be missed.

I still remember years ago he appeared on Jay Leno's show, and did a demo of hammering some planks together (as he would do building his Habitat for Humanity houses).  Leno had difficulty trying to hammer the nails in (much to the amusement of the audience!), and Jimmy Carter showed him how to do it correctly.  The man could literally pound the hammer twice on the nail and it was done, even as old as he was then!

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Biblical east coast storm. The elite class of em. 1996, first 2010 storm, and 2016

True story...for that first 2010 storm (Feb. 5-6), I purposely picked up some Becks beer (yeah, I know, not the best) to enjoy during that event!  Becks for the BECS!!! 

2 hours ago, H2O said:

A Christmas Story is my jam on Xmas eve. Watch it with my kids every year

You'll shoot your eye out, kid!

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Oh fuuuuuuuuuuuudge.

Life Buoy for you!!

Happy Christmas to all!  Best wishes to all for a wonderful Holiday!

Since there's some discussion of movies, here are some that I always like every year (at least as many as I can watch):

--Scrooge (the one with Albert Finney, from the early '70s, a semi-musical)

--It's a Wonderful Life

--Die Hard (yes, it's a Christmas movie, much discussion was had about that a few years back!!)

--Miracle on 34th Street

--Christmas Story (a Finnish version, very touching and nice!)

--A Christmas Story (yeah, that one, with Ralphie and the Red Ryder BB gun!)

--Home Alone

--The Santa Clause

--Any of the old animated classics...Grinch who Stole Christmas, Santa Claus is Coming to Town, etc.!

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.

Mmmm, who doesn't like MINT at this time of year!  Myself, I love the Holiday mint M&Ms!!  Stock up on those every December!

Just now, poolz1 said:

I know ops are just for entertainment purposes in the 10-15 but I do like to see potential on them....even in the LR.  

Isn't that what we want to start seeing, though?  Some really nice, even wacky solutions showing up in the deterministic and individual ensemble members out at longer range.  Then of course hopefully hone in on a real one as it gets closer in time.  I thought that was a problem last year, with all the drool-worthy looks for February in the extra-extended ensembles and such.  It looked great on those plots, but we never really saw the "big, wild hits" show up, even from individual ensemble members.  I think it was @Bob Chill who pointed that out, saying that while it looked great on those extended means, he wasn't too thrilled with what was "under the hood."

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

 

Does this post break the record for the number of different emoji reactions?  It's like an ensemble spread! 

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off.

Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

 

Just now, 87storms said:

Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.

Damn.  sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night!

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it 

Likewise, I live in suburban MD now.  For several years I lived in DC, around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.  But even there, I noticed the amount of snow I got was more than what DCA reported (not hugely different, but noticeable!).

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter.

Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand!  I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out.  A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure.  That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February.  We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day.  And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening.

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

10 hours ago, bncho said:

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! 

12 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

And the winter got even better 

Yeah, unreal to think that the December 2009 HECS was just the start (actually, it started earlier that month with a light amount of snow on the "famous" Dec. 5!).  I still have to say, that 12 day period from Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010 was the most concentrated snowy period I've seen, and I grew up in northeast Ohio where I've experienced a lot of snowy winters!  In that 12 days, we got two moderate events and two HECS-level storms, and I measured a total of 46.8" in that time.

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).

I was just thinking this the other day, at least for this area.  Yeah, haven't had any snow this month other than maybe a couple of stray flakes.  But to my knowledge, it's been one of the colder Decembers I can remember in awhile.  Not extreme, but some solidly cold days and nights.  Not those nearly 65 degree humid evenings!  In fact, I saw that even DCA is about a degree or so below normal on the month so far.  So if we avoid any torch the rest of the month, I'd have to say it's more in line with a "typical" December than we've seen.

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... 

Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. 

It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

Uh, oh...are cute puppies and fuzzy bunnies at risk of being kicked??

The advertised pattern going into the first part of January does look good, though I understand the caution (especially after what happened last winter, weeks of "great looks" that disappeared as it got within 10 days).  I'd take a solid, moderate warning-level event any day, that sticks around for a bit afterward!  Funny that SNE'ers would be angry at "only" a 3-6" storm!  In these parts, there'd be partying in the streets if an area-wide event like that occurred!