Scarlet Pimpernel

Serious (mostly) question here, since I don't look at the Euro weeklies really at all other than what I read in here.  How accurate or useful are they?  I'm not trying to be a homer here by suggesting "they look bad so they must not be accurate!"  I'm being honest in what I ask.  In the past, how many times have the weeklies shown drool-worthy patterns for several weeks, and it ends up crap anyhow as we got close in to that time?  I know this has happened in previous years (maybe even last year at one point?).  Of course the flip-side is assuming that they're spot on when they indicate a lousy pattern but dubious if they look good...but that's just me being cynical.  In fact, I've noticed this for much of the sort of ultra-long-range models, how many times has it indicated a good trend that just doesn't happen?  Is there something that isn't being picked up on in recent years?  Again, maybe this is being biased on my part because of course we tend to better remember the times the forecast good patterns don't pan out.

The medium-range thread looks like a disaster and the blinds are getting nervous that they may get soiled for weeks!

The blinds, they have been shat upon!!!

17 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

if DC's snow was subject to the cocaine habits of the politicians (or their families) that pass through here, we'd never have any snow ever lol.

Apparently, we're looking for the wrong kind of "snow" around here!!

5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

This seems unbelievable! Mt. Markus Baker Alaska!

 

Wow, that's like the anti-Panic Room!

22 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think our definition of wall to wall winter is different. I don’t mean it snows the whole winter. But to me I was thinking a majority (not all) of the winter is spent in a pattern where it can snow and there are multiple events spread out. Not just one or two flukes.  
 

2008-10 was definitely a wall to wall winter for me. Snow events in our area (not everyone’s yard gets it every time!)  Dec 5, Dec 10, Dec 19!  A clipper early Jan. Another storm late Jan. 3 snows Feb 2-10th. A light snow for MD in late Feb and a near miss in early March. That’s as wall to wall as it’s gets to be. No 3 week shut the blinds periods…we were tracking legit threats from Dec 1 on!   And is even throw in years where it started warm and flipped but then had a sustained 8 weeks or so of cold/snow. 
 

For reference years I would categorize as wall to wall winters in my adult life  

1994, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014

 Years that just missed but were close, had long stretches that felt like winter and I’d even include in this argument 

2005, 2015

But let’s be serious…a lot of us are hunting for the big year that historically this area gets with decadal regularity. 1958, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. Those years features a combo of long stretches of wintry weather and snows. We all know they won’t happen most years, but my point was if this enso can’t being about a snowy (doesn’t even have to be to the level of one of those years) winter then I don’t know if getting a year like that is even possible in the current pacific background base state. 
 

 

Hey @psuhoffman, a bit late replying here, but I wanted to say thank you for clarifying that.  And apologies if I interpreted what you said incorrectly.  I understand what you mean here with "wall to wall winter" referring to a more persistent pattern that can produce a few (or several?) events, and that a Nino such as this year SHOULD do the same.  Hopefully, at least!  If the Pac background state isn't going to allow that, then, well...what can you do?  And I agree, we're all hoping this Nino will give either longer or more frequent windows of opportunity to score, rather than us ending up with weeks of "shit the blinds" conditions!

To your list of "just missed", I would be tempted to add 2006-07.  More precisely, late Jan. into early Mar. 2007.  I've always had a bit of a "soft spot" for that winter, even though we didn't exactly get a ton of snow.  But we had a remarkably cold period through that time (especially Feb.), and as I've said several times, we JUST missed that storm around Valentines Day.  The one that gave us 3" sleet and ice rather than a foot or more of snow.  As it was, anything that did fall stayed on the ground for awhile (that sleet turned into an ice pack that hung around).  We also got a decent clipper early that Feb. and another "mashed potatoes" like event near the end of that month.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s just the dumbest season of them all. 

Sing it with me!!!

It's the most dumliest time, of the year!

There'll be much belly-aching,

Clothes rended and hair-tearing,

When snow-loving weenies are near!

It's the most dumliest time,

Yes the most dumliest time,

Oh the most dumliest time,

Of the year!

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to accept we all need to move to the mountains. Or quit our jobs and build a big lake somewhere to the west.

Head for the Mountains!!!  Made me recall these old Busch beer ads!

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not just this one. We’re preemptively cancelling until 2229-2230.

FYP, since you didn't give a century value on those years!  I may be optimistic there even with what I added!

(But I hear the ultra extra mega crazy extended EPS/GEFS says 2230-31 will be rockin'!  Bring it!!!)

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If a nino isn’t able to change the equation then at least we know!  
 

I mean eventually the PDO will flip again but I don’t expect that anytime soon. And we can still get a fluke snow like the lucky one off boundary waves we’ve randomly lucked into from time to time in recent years. But if this current enso can’t alter the equation I find it hard to imagine how we get a true wall to wall snowy winter in this pacific background state. 
 

please note I said IF…I’m sticking to my forecast for now. 

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not jumping yet but I get the frustration. A week ago this is what Xmas to New years was supposed to look like and it was consistent on long range guidance. 

But it’s been stick at day 20 since.   Now guidance says we get to that look around Jan 5-10. Ok…but given what happened the last nino and the pacific issues which some have speculated is a bigger problem that just enso, I think it’s fair to be bothered by the failure of the pattern to progress over the past week or so. But I’m not making one of my famous “we fooked” posts yet. But…I’ll say this, if we get to new years with the long range looking like this it will be coming. Even in late flip years the changes were evident and signs the nao (which is a big key here) was tanking were evident even if the snow was still a couple weeks away. If we get to new years with no end in sight to this pacific onslaught then we’re in trouble imo. We’re ok for now…but the clock is already ticking. And before anyone complains about how early it is they said that the last couple times I called TOD on winter in December and how did that turn out?  
 

To be 100% clear I expect around Xmas we start to see the pattern progression resume. I think we’re ok. But I’d be a fool not to acknowledge the risks and be a little nervous until I see concrete signs were good. 

First, let me state that I totally agree with what you're saying here with all your overall ideas.  And I truly believe that the Elephant In The Room Which Shall Not Be Named! is a good part of why we see these changes over the last couple or so decades.  But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here.  Even in the best years.  The only truly "wall to wall" winter that I recall in my time here was 2013-14, and perhaps you could also argue 2002-03.  2009-10, for all it's record-breaking storms, was compressed into a week of December and a couple of weeks in late January into the first half of February.  I know you're personally not expecting that, but I think there are those who do.  I get it.  The last several winters sucked, especially last year.  Maybe it's truly all one's expectations.  I like looking ahead to see what the pattern may look like, etc., but at times it honestly gets tiresome listening to so much gloom and doom ("OMG!  December now sucks, can kicked to sometime in January, aaaaahhhhh!").  Again, I get that to an extent and I get frustrated as well...and I'm CERTAINLY NOT saying that you are doing this.  I'm just using your comments as a springboard for mine, if I may.

Will this winter just end up being crap despite what should have been a "background state" that normally would deliver consistently?  Maybe.  But as you say, that's a LARGER issue that deserves more discussion even if there are those who don't want to hear it.  But just from a snow lover standpoint, if we get a "one and done" kind of thing like 2015-16, I wouldn't complain too much.  Or if we're back-loaded like 2014-15 and other winters, where we get much of our winter in late Jan through Mar.

Honestly, after last winter I almost don't much care at this point if we get the perfect pattern that delivers weeks and weeks of tracking (which would be difficult anyhow even in the best situation!).  If something shows up, great.  Give me some decent events and perhaps even a HECS tossed in there and I'm fine.  Sorry, but after last winter's 0.5" snow for the season (that was gone before noon!) and consistently warm temperatures, I just figure you can't get much worse.  There was literally NOTHING of interest that ever really appeared on the horizon last year.  The most exciting thing was the brief Arctic blast around Christmas, and I got 15 minutes of flurries out of it that didn't even measure.

As for your rather bullish forecast this season, I totally understand why you went that way.  And in all honesty, as you well know especially here in the metro areas, we can get that level of snowfall in 2-3 events with nothing else.  Just how it is around here.

13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

light rain. 59/57. 
 

Unlikely to get stickage in UHI hell. 
 

 

Rain just immediately evaporated before hitting the pavement in all that heat!! 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I need some time alone with that Fgen plot

Looks like the PSU inch got larger! 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

If models existed at that time, the Reconstruction Era snow weenies (if there were such a thing then!) would be running for the cliffs!

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

I hear palm trees are growing in NYC…

"A (Palm) Tree Grows in Brooklyn"??? 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

All that may be true, I have not watched a single play, but what you just said there is exactly why I don't watch.  They won every game, so I don't care about any of that.  The results on the field should be all that matters.  If things like "what the fans want to see, what the better game would be, who is hypothetically the better team" are more important that the actual results of games...then I choose not to care about that sport.  

I'm a little biased since I went to FSU for graduate school (witnessed the first infamous "wide right" game against Miami...ugh!!).  But I'm not a homer about it and like you, I haven't paid as much attention to college football much over the years, unless a team I "like" is in a game.  I also like Michigan, so hoping they will win it all now this year!  (I say that as one who grew up in Ohio!).

Anyhow, yeah, FSU had a rough game vs. Louisville, and they're "not the same" in many ways, perhaps, after losing their star QB Travis.  And yet they still as a team managed win and close out undefeated.  Plus, their defense has been amazing.  They had to use their 3rd string QB in that game, since their backup behind Travis was also out on concussion protocol.  He'd definitely be back by the time any bowl games occur, and he did a pretty good job overall in his start vs. UF.  While FSU hypothetically may well have lost right away if they made the playoffs, I'm fairly sure it wouldn't be a total blowout given their defense and the fact that they'd at least have improved offense with their backup QB back in there.  So I don't think it would be a "UGA-TCU" slaughter-fest.

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I get your point (yes, there are teams in every sport that miss the cut), but in what sport does an undefeated team not have a chance to win the title?

Re college hoops, I actually like the fact that every conference is represented. I know college football is different in that there’s far less games, but it’s gotta be the least competitively balanced system in all of sports and may even contribute to less parity as the top hs prospects know they’d have very little chance of winning a title at a smaller school.

Yeah, that selection was a surprise.  Obviously, Michigan and Washington were going to be #1 and #2.  I think the reasoning of the committee, essentially weighing "FSU isn't the same team without their star QB", was a bit lame.  An undefeated P5 team that wins their conference not getting in?  FSU actually dropped one spot in the rankings?  Just a bit odd...

Alabama was not a surprise to me, that they got in, after upsetting UGA, after 2 seasons of UGA dominance.  Personally, my own opinion (2 cents, all it's worth!)...if the committee was going to allow two 1-loss teams in the 4 team playoff as they did, they should have put Alabama or Texas as #3 and UGA as #4 in there.  Yeah, UGA lost their conference championship, but it was by 3 points and the Bulldogs had a clearly dominant season.  You could argue that despite the loss, they deserve to be in the final 4.  That's no more nebulous reasoning than the committee's.  I'm in NO way a UGA or SEC fan, far from it, but I think they're a better choice than both Alabama and Texas.  And don't forget, Alabama had to rely on a last-minute lucky play to pull out their win vs. Auburn.

1 hour ago, mappy said:

catching up after 4 days away and I can't tell whether winter is over or just begun lol

Winter never happened.  We Ji'd it right away so extended fall through March! 

6 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m stepping down from operations and appointing @Wxdavis5784 as interim CEO of the Panic Room Hotline, Inc.
 

Also, we are offering one last special: Sign up for the platinum quadruple play package within the next 48 hours, and you will be enrolled in the AmWx Jelly of the Month club; it’s the gift that keeps on giving the whole year.

I'm sure the Reaper @WxWatcher007 will take a fat percentage of those quadruple play packages...and income from the Jelly of the Month Club...as part of his retirement package!!! 

That was one of the greatest movie rants of all time, from National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation!!

29 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month

 

Somehow, I read that in the voice of the kid in "The Shining" when he said "Red Rum, Red Rum!" 

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Wild that we are going to see a Power 5 conference undefeated champion left out of the CFB.

That very well could happen.  I think the only reason FSU would be kept out is due to the fact that their quarterback situation is so uncertain after Jordan Travis got injured and out for the season.  The thinking (such as it is) being that maybe FSU isn't "strong enough" to be in the top 4 due to that.  While I can sort of possibly see that argument to an extent, I don't find it valid.  Would you seriously take an undefeated team that was ranked #4 going into this weekend and actually DROP them one or two spots after they won their conference title game (albeit a rough, ugly win; their defense won it for them!) and after #1 Georgia lost theirs?  Sure, FSU could get into the playoffs and get steamrolled in the first game (if they get in, I wouldn't be surprised if this scenario occurred!).  But they earned a spot all the same...you should go by the record and who won their conference.  Do we deny an NFL or MLB team or whomever a playoff spot that they clearly earned with their record, just because their star player had a season-ending injury and they "might not be as good"?  I know, not the same as college football, but you get the idea.

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are you even talking about man. For God’s sake. 
 

I hate it here sometimes. 

Amen!  Have people forgotten what December 2015 was like during the "super-Nino"?  Record or near record warmth, a +10 temperature departure on the month, absolutely nothing wintry in sight.  Christmas Eve was practically unbearably muggy outside!  I probably have blocked it from my mind but I'm sure this place was tearing its hair out before the solstice even arrived that year!  We all know what happened in January of that winter.  Not predicting a KU storm here of course, but besides the blizzard that winter, I think a lot of people forget that Jan-Feb was actually slightly colder than normal (especially Jan) and we did have other opportunities besides the big storm but they didn't much pan out.  Now we fret over some unfavorable look toward mid-December and some want to say that's it for winter.

31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The eastern US is part of Scandinavia??  Who knew!?!? 

LOL, sorry @Ralph Wiggum, my comment was a weak attempt at obscure dark humor.  You mentioned the Scandinavian ridge, and I was noting the amplified ridge over the eastern US as if asking whether we're now part of Scandinavia!

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

^^Scandinavian Ridge building ftw ?

The eastern US is part of Scandinavia??  Who knew!?!? 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do I get paid for this?

One would hope so, if you're inspecting the quality of your former establishments.  Or hire Ramsay himself!  Your reputation is at stake! 

(ETA:  "Oh my GOD!  Ji has rented this room for a decade and just LOOK at this place!")

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

My pension is excellent and retirement is good. 

 

You can be like Gordon Ramsay in his "Hotel Hell" series.  Stop by the Panic Room now and then to make sure it's still up to its 5-star quality that you left it in upon retiring and handing over management.  If it's in bad shape, you can go all Ramsay F-bomb and "Oh my God, this is disgusting!!"