Scarlet Pimpernel

If the Panic room were run by Hannibal Lecter:

"A jumping weenie once tried to escape me.  I ate his liver with some fava beans, and a nice chianti!"

On 12/15/2023 at 11:55 AM, paulythegun said:

#NEverForget the victims of El Nino: sailors boiled alive in the east pacific

Is that @WxWatcher007's, the Reaper's, tropical retirement spot??? 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

No problem...totally see why you refer to things that way (one problem with official winter crossing a year!!).  I had forgotten Pinatubo was the year before El Chichon blew.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 

Volcanic eruption being one of the theories??  I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall.  (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?)

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point?  Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is.

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look.

Looks like a smiling pirate with an eye patch.  Arrrr, matey, here's your blocking and your southern stream...now get to work on finding some snow!

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeeeeeaaaaah buddy!!! (If I wasn't on a partial fast from this forum I would've posted that first, lol) This is a global holiday as far as I am concerned 

I do have to say, Beethoven doesn't look happy with a party hat on.  Like he's thinking, "Get this f**ing thing off my head now, or someone's going to pay!"  (but he'd say it in German, of course!)

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I asked for that dish in a Mexican restaurant once, and the waitress said that's an Italian thing. (Where she worked before). Guy at the next table said it's a French cheese appetizer.  "Quickly with cheese".  Pretty confusing,  so I just had the tacos. Y'know, play it safe.

Well, just remember in France, they don't call it a Quarter Pounder...it's a "Royale with Cheese"!!!

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yepper....im headed to the beer distributor. Oh, you meant wrt the weather. Yeah, that too.

Well, I do look forward to a day when we can again discuss what beer (or other beverage of choice) we're drinking to ring in a big HECS!!!

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I dunno.  Ers weather guy said it definitely won’t snow this winter.  And Mets are never wrong.

For half a second, I thought you were referring to that National League team in New York!! 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward.

I know that's an op at range but daayum!  And as @brooklynwx99 mentioned, sure it's an op at 384-h, but it does show a reasonable/possible progression and it fits in with what the ensembles have been showing lately for that time.  Better than seeing crap on the longer range ensembles with an ops showing some unicorn storm that is clearly not consistent with the flow and pattern.  Oh, and is that a BANANA high, dare I say??

Happy birthday to one of the greatest!! 

On 12/5/2023 at 11:04 PM, WVclimo said:

If the Washington-Jefferson snowstorm of January 1772 happened today, it would produce major urban and small stream flooding.

I understand that both Washington and Jefferson were ultra snow weenies!  Why else would Washington cross the Delaware River in the freezing cold on a holiday?!  Also, the British observer at what is now the DCA location gave a very low snow total for that storm, sparking protests bigger than the Boston Tea Party, and played a role in the eventual American Revolution!  I heard that snow weenies were out on barges tossing large snowballs into the Potomac.  Rumor has it that the aforementioned British observer was an ancestor of what we now call the Reaper!  True history, folks!!!

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

I remember. I thought it was even earlier than that. I enjoyed meeting you and many others. 

Likewise!!

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It’s too bad we don’t really have those anymore. They were fun.  

Yeah the one I went to in July 2016 was a lot of fun, up in the Rockville area.

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont remember 09-10 that well except for the 3 blizzards but what happened between Christmas and late January. Why didnt we get snow..was it more southern tracks? It wasnt warm from my recollection. Did the STJ dry up?

I recall a clipper type system early in January.  Yeah it wasn't overly warm but I believe a bit above normal overall for that last part of December and then again after the early Jan. clipper.  Then it turned cold late January and we got that "surprise" moderate snow event on the 30th.

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I believe in that last panel, he sees the back edge...

All this talk of famine and snow...have people been dreaming about 7 fat cows and 7 thin cows all of a sudden?  Going all Biblical here!!! 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh I’m not even trying to level things out though. That off the table. Our climo is decreasing and I’ve accepted that. I’m just talking about getting enough snow so that when this year is over we can’t say “it’s been the least snow 8 year stretch ever”. That will take about 30”.  Ya that’s how bad it is!  I don’t think some realize we’re on the precipice of unprecedented territory here. Because all the past somewhat similar snow droughts were bookended by huge epic snow seasons. So right now we’re within a standard deviation of other past snow droughts. But if we don’t get an epic 40” type season in the next couple years we will start to hit snow drought territory that makes all past bad periods pale in comparison. We have to hit a BIG season here soon or it’s gonna get absolutely ridiculous and there will be no argument against the fact our snow climo may have hit a tipping point in a negative way.  I don’t want to accept that yet so I banked on an epic year. Don’t get me wrong it wasn’t all just that. We have a lot in our favor. Basin wide but central leaning Nino. -QBO. Ascending solar. But the were due index is off the charts blinking red with fireworks going off right now!  

Thanks...I see better now what you're saying.  As for the "we're due index!!", unfortunately, as you know, the weather don't give a s**t if we think we're due!  But yeah, I get what you mean about how we wouldn't want this year to end up where we say it's now the worst 8 year period ever, and then possibly be staring down the barrels of yet MORE worst years!  It actually took me a good while living in this area to realize that the "average" snowfall is meaningless...it's a conglomeration of many "meh" to crap years and the occasional blockbuster.  Or, you'd get it all in one or two storms and nothing else.

We definitely don't want this:

Just now, stormy said:

I couldn't care less how much snow we receive this winter.  My one reality is that we all need a wet winter considering the drought conditions.

A wet winter is my concern, bring on many warm wet systems!  It would be a Godsend....................

But wetness in the form of ice crystals is a lot more fun!!!  (Oh, dear, did I just send up the bat signal to RR with that wording???)

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me either. Just pointing out all the permutations on the table. But for me knowing this is likely our last shot for a while to break out of the snow drought we’re in does raise the stakes. The last few days has been not so good wrt guidance but we have time still. Like I said around New Years is when we will know where this is heading imo. 

But would we really break out of the "snow drought" if we even get, say, 10-15" or so above normal at the main airport locations?  It would be great for this year of course.  But we all know that we'd need...how many years of +10" departures?...to "level things out."  Not one season.  And "last shot for awhile"...maybe so.  Isn't that what we usually do around here?  I know there are many factors involved, not the least of which is (I'll say it!!) climate change, which alters the overall landscape.

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

didnt you get like 3-4" literally yesterday?

Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times.  It's all what expectations are:  is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at  least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)?  I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities.  And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure.  But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16?  Would we all be so upset?  I don't know.

Just now, Terpeast said:

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

OK, thanks...after I re-read your comment I realized you must be talking about next year and beyond.  Sorry for the confusion on my part.

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO.

This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. 

Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while. 

Do you mean it literally shows ENSO trending to a Nina as winter progresses, or that it's becoming "Nina-like" in its behavior?  Or, are you talking about next year, etc.?

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Every bad winter for us has 100 year events in Myrtle Beach, Houston, Austin and Madrid

Road trip to Spain, anyone????