Huffwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just woke up for the Euro WOW. Wednesday is a big deal down here with some pretty cold mid levels, would be sleet to ice, with 1-2 of sleet first as shown on both Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I like the looks of the very end of the run because it originates in the gulf. It's been a long time since one has come out of the gulf. One reason it has so much moisture shown... its funny JB thinks we go thru all of feb before spring, cosgrove thinks we warm up by middle of feb and euro gives us a good old fashion pounding next week, I have a hard time believing the euro for next week, something aint right , one of the two models is in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6z GFS has the ice/front end/rain storm next week and also the unicorn storm on the following weekend. If pattern holds, 12z GFS won't have either in a way that helps us later today. Liking the constancy of the Euro in the long range for the unicorn storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT's storm could be the blockbuster of the winter. It is on all the models, its so far out, but if we could cash in with an ice storm wednesday and a huge snowstorm few days later, winter would be set for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT's storm The unicorn storm could be the blockbuster of the winter. It is on all the models, its so far out, but if we could cash in with an ice storm wednesday and a huge snowstorm few days later, winter would be set for me. Fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good morning all. Need more coffee to help open my eyes to the EURO Unicorn. Wow I think? Doors one and two icy though right? Can we get any front end love on those--or should I punt those all together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good morning all. Need more coffee to help open my eyes to the EURO Unicorn. Wow I think? Doors one and two icy though right? Can we get any front end love on those--or should I punt those all together? There seems to be just a door 1. The Tuesday/Wed mid-week ice/front end rain thing. Then the unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It is a monster KU for the western burbs..and quite big for DC too before we mix.....and the storm has been showing up over and over...it is still in the fantasy range, but the euro seems locked in on something big.... the signal is strong on the gfs and ggem also. Especially the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There seems to be just a door 1. The Tuesday/Wed mid-week ice/front end rain thing. Then the unicorn. Ok. Got it. I can focus now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 DT just called it the bombopolarderechovortexgenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good morning all. Need more coffee to help open my eyes to the EURO Unicorn. Wow I think? Doors one and two icy though right? Can we get any front end love on those--or should I punt those all together? Looked a little closer at the Monday event on the Euro. Looks kinda nice to me. 850s start a little above 0 and get colder as the heavier precip gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looked a little closer at the Monday event on the Euro. Looks kinda nice to me. 850s start a little above 0 and get colder as the heavier precip gets to us. Cool. My head will be weather spinning all week. Supposed to hit NYC Wednesday to Thursday as well. Should be wild. As long as I don't miss that ever elusive unicorn... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looked a little closer at the Monday event on the Euro. Looks kinda nice to me. 850s start a little above 0 and get colder as the heavier precip gets to us. Wunderground maps say 2-3" for Sunday night/Monday morning which is interesting since that's what they said I'd get early last week when I got almost 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wunderground maps say 2-3" for Sunday night/Monday morning which is interesting since that's what they said I'd get early last week when I got almost 6" That would be perfect, a storm to track during the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That would be perfect, a storm to track during the super bowl. what's the super bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS and Euro locked in on the unicorn at range. I guess that should provide slim hope that it may materialize as progged. Some HECS events that come to mind where DCA mixed were 1996 and 2003. I don't mind some pellets locally if we can score a MECS or HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Seems to me that most of the GEFS have shifted the track of the mid-week storm to the south. The 6z Op is one of, if not the, most wrapped up and far west cutter of the bunch. Most of the members still turn us to rain verbatim, but I find the southern track shift (right over us in most cases) a bit encouraging. GEFS still don't go in much for the Monday event though…a few members have some snow for us. Most are dry. Lots of moving pieces the next 10 days with this very active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Seems to me that most of the GEFS have shifted the track of the mid-week storm to the south. The 6z Op is one of, if not the, most wrapped up and far west cutter of the bunch. Most of the members still turn us to rain verbatim, but I find the southern track shift (right over us in most cases) a bit encouraging. GEFS still don't go in much for the Monday event though…a few members have some snow for us. Most are dry. Lots of moving pieces the next 10 days with this very active pattern. Saw the shift for wed myself. It's a model war for Monday but the next 2 are definitely being honed in on by the globals. Euro and EPS like monday. Wed should be a blast for an interesting event. Front end frozen seems relatively resolved. It's pretty fun nowcasting multiple features and who is getting what and when. Warm layer changeovers sandwiches like the euro shows for the unicorn are pretty common in the cities with big storms on that track. Would make a heck of fun mess and a bullet proof snowpack to withstand nuclear Feb sun angle. A weaker storm than the euro would prob track a bit east and be all snow. I better get a lot of rest this weekend. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why are we calling it the unicorn storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why are we calling it the unicorn storm? Probably because in the end, it's just a fantasy. Or... because it has a sharp appendage that is just as likely to be shoved up our ***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tracker called it unicorn at one point. I like that more than DT storm . Denotes storm out in fantasyland. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 on an unrelated note, SBY got down to -5 this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 EPS has about 50% agreement for a range of T-5" for Monday. Good signal on the precip panels for decent moisture through the cities. Also a good signal for next weekend. If anything, the members show less of a wrapped up track and super wet up the coast. Long leads so who cares. But it looks pretty good for us nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 With Philly having such a banner winter, I'm all for our area getting a Hecs, while it hugs the coast and flips them to rain. Those events are rare, but possible. Great antecedent cold air mass should really help, even with the Parent HIGH leaving, there's a broad area of HP over the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Liking monday for a chance at 1-3" which would be more than welcomed before the Wednesday and weekend events. Really like the front end threat Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Fun differences between the GFS and the Euro for Monday, given that we are at a relatively short lead at this point. 4 days out and the GFS wants nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So, just so we have the dates right (the globals have been pretty consistent here), We've got the system Feb 5th (Wed) that continues to look as if it would be ice (at best) to rain with the inland track. Good snows potentially in the OH Vly and Great Lakes. Feb 8th...next Saturday...the GFS/EC and at least yesterday's CMC have been reasonably consistent with this one as well. A rare Miller A with at least for now the high in the right place and we're cold enough for snow. February 8th it is then. Nine days away...this should be fun :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 EPS has about 50% agreement for a range of T-5" for Monday. Good signal on the precip panels for decent moisture through the cities. Wow, its really going out on a limb there. I would have gone T-20", and 10% just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So, just so we have the dates right (the globals have been pretty consistent here), We've got the system Feb 5th (Wed) that continues to look as if it would be ice (at best) to rain with the inland track. Good snows potentially in the OH Vly and Great Lakes. Feb 8th...next Saturday...the GFS/EC and at least yesterday's CMC have been reasonably consistent with this one as well. A rare Miller A with at least for now the high in the right place and we're cold enough for snow. February 8th it is then. Nine days away...this should be fun :-) IMO- The Feb 5th storm has been slowly trending towards a better cad signal with a nice 1030+ hp in a good spot. At this point a layer of snow before ice seems likely. Usual suspects would get the best of both. Anywhere from the fall line west is in the game for a fun front end event. GEFS is starting to add in some weaker and more southern solutions (not saying southern as in good snow just better chances at more winter before wet). GFS has the monday vort but it's really weak with no surface reflection. I almost expect a trend towards the euro today or tomorrow. Euro has been a bit steadfast and so are the ensembles. It's keying on something that the gfs/gefs is missing. Could be out to lunch too. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So, just so we have the dates right (the globals have been pretty consistent here), We've got the system Feb 5th (Wed) that continues to look as if it would be ice (at best) to rain with the inland track. Good snows potentially in the OH Vly and Great Lakes. Feb 8th...next Saturday...the GFS/EC and at least yesterday's CMC have been reasonably consistent with this one as well. A rare Miller A with at least for now the high in the right place and we're cold enough for snow. February 8th it is then. Nine days away...this should be fun :-) I think an all-snow solution for the midweek storm is unlikely right now, but there's certainly potential for a respectable front-end thump and a majority frozen/freezing precip event. But since Bob didn't mention what the Euro ensembles show, I'm guessing they're mostly rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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