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Yeah the euro backed way off

Based on NYC 30”+ snowfall, a Niña wasn’t a winter killer in: 2020-1, 17-18, 16-17, 10-11, 05-06, 00-01, 95-6, 55-6, 38-9, 33-4, 17-8, 16-7, 03-4, 1893-4, 86-7, 72-3 So, out of 43 La Niña winters including the unofficial 2024-5, 16 of them (37%) had 30”+ of snow at NYC.

lopsided lmao erin just go to istanbul at this point is she ever going to redeem herself from this crap or what

Most models don't have very much for most of the area

Rain, wind, big waves on the shore from the leftover front. Day to go the outlets...

Might even be NYC

Congrats CT. AWT.

I think 75 but that was when the Hillsborough thermo was busted

Crab grass war finally over and won. Time to reseed the bare spots—-going primarily Texas bluegrass in these patches…

Do any of the other current tropical waves have a shot at the east coast or are they doomed to follow the Erin path again? Edit: or is it just too early to make that determination?

Nothing like that here.

Crazy how on the WNC side of the apps this month has erased all drought conditions and we can't dry out at all. I think we had a brief window this weekend but then rain yesterday evening and this morning raining already.

kids go back to school next week, it's over....

Lots of NC live cams at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/

We can only hope-got .50 here Sunday night it's all dried up now

Another fantastic day on tap today!

No thread until 230PM: PRE seems in play but best axis for 2-4" rain, isolated 5" is unknown though may be favoring LI or NJ. Just too soon. It's banded so some folks only 1/4" and others rejoice in 2+. 12z/19 guidance may be helpful. Timing of wetting event (positive impact imo for many in recent drought) is Noon Wed-Noon Thu. While impacts positive for needed rain, I think there will be fairly high negative impact Wed even-Thu AM commutes in and out of NYC. Second part of a potential thread is the unknown, whether TS gusts will reach s LI and Nj coasts (gusts 40-50 MPH) later Thu. Possibility of moderate coastal flooding, mainly NJ coast Thu eve. Rip currents and high surf are a given.

Rain already this morning in parts of the mountains with a 4 car wreck on I40 going towards Asheville from Haywood.

BLD on top of the recent loss of the ash trees is just heart breaking. At least they working on the American chestnut!

69 / 56 clear out. Into the cool we descend. Period of onshore and cooler with potential localized (much discussed) rain from influences of Erin Wed-Thu (AM). Beyond there drier and another (5th or 6th in a row) nice weekend coming up. Riding near to slightly below normal Thu - Sun. Front arrives and late Sunday and overnight into Monday then trough into the northeast Mon - most of next week. Some moderation towards the close of the month but likely the reversal waits till the last day of August to shift warmer and beyond. 8/19 - 8/21 : Cooler / Rain localized Erin influenced/enhances Wed/Thu. (north) 8/22 - 8/24 : Near normal - great dry weekend 8/25 : Front - storms next chance after the Wed/Thu AM Erin rain. 8/26 - 8/30 : Trough - cooler - perhaps wetter overall 8/31 - Beyond : Ridge building east - Warmer overall

As previously mentioned, it will likely not technically reach a Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthly SSTA of -.5C at ENSO 3.4), but other measurements like MEI and RONI likely will. So it shouldn't be overwhelming.

Depends on strength and other factors. Right now we are looking at a weak La Nina.

The heat has definitely brought on flash drought conditions for much of middle & west TN. Moderate drought in some places already. Heading into the drier months is not helping either. Hope for a tropical system to be a drought buster otherwise.

The summer of cloudy, humid, swampy continues. The NAM has been way overdone with rain. The HRR looks more credible imo. It just has a bit of drizzle for basically the entire week.

50’s and rain for many tomorrow ?