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  2. Strong storm moving through Northern Anne Arundel. Pretty fierce winds right right now. My spot usually doesn't get such strong winds.
  3. METAR KBWI 182005Z 33021G53KT 3/4SM R15R/1000V5000FT +TSRAGR BR SCT013 BKN044CB OVC100 23/22 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 30053/2002 WSHFT 1951 GRB05 PRESRR CONS LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E GR 1/2 P0014 T02330222 $ 53 KTS and 1/2" Hail to boot!
  4. Nah..not bad here..2 rounds with 1.32 total
  5. You just have to hope something "pops up" out of nowhere. We have the DP in our favor (DP 76F)...
  6. A lot of really needed rain in Oceanside. No idea how that severe threat is holding out later because I have yet to see a second of sun
  7. when I was outside with the dog this morning I was a bit shocked how it was outside...smoke was pretty evident. Thought at first it was maybe some fog but the smell of smoke was clear as day.
  8. The most impressive wind signature of the day so far is right over BWI... will be interesting to see what they report. TDWR says 55-60 mph.
  9. I just think it's the science of pointing out things after the fact. If the 500mb rise had occurred in Europe that would be the "after a higher baseline jump effect". There is probably something more meteorological going on. I don't think a higher global temperature hones in primarily on the Pacific Hadley Cells.
  10. I didn't think it rained that hard but I'm at .6 (so far).
  11. Radar looks like ass for this evening can't believe i missed this
  12. 25 degree drop in two hours.
  13. Was that gentle stratiform rain we just got the severe threat? Haven’t been paying attention.
  14. Both the mid-latitude North and South Pacific ridges have dramatically expanded since the late 90s. The first expansion coincided with the first global higher baseline temperature jump following the 1997-1998 super El Niño. The 2nd and more dramatic expansion occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This is the pattern which is driving the record -PDO since 2018-2019 with the record surface and subsurface warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Some of the climate models run back in 2013 were showing a similar pattern developing. But it was forecast to be a much slower process than what has occurred and be focused a little further north. So my guess is that the planet is much more sensitive to the effects of warming than the climate models forecasted. Plus the model which showed this ridge expansion also forecast to lower pressures over the Arctic the summer like we have seen since 2013. We were just discussing the very strong low north of Alaska during June. North Pacific 500 mb ridge expansion
  15. just edited...meant to say 3km is a bit off with how things are evolving. HRRR pretty good to get everyone with some amount of rain for rd 2. Severe potential remains complex. Might just have to watch where the instability gradient is. But even that will be tough to pinpoint because the warm front is moving.
  16. the stuff S/SW of Leesburg between Middleburg and Arcola looking quite healthy
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