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That’s all I’ve got

yeah too bad the GFS is the only model on board for that one .. 1"-3" would feel like a SECS

Grab a few at the party. What could go wrong?

I initially though Wankum was just lazy and dumbing things down, but the more I listen, the more I feel he really believes that. He is consistently emphatic about it.

Icon and RGEM meh with Sunday night into Monday though

Most guidance shifted east with the notoriously fickle inverted trof for Saturday. Can't rule out flurries or snow showers now through Saturday but hard to envision any accumulation ATM. Medium-range models show a parade of potential "threats" but nothing tangible yet. The longwave flow is broadly supportive of wintry threats. The Sun-Mon clipper is first up. Feels like winter... especially in areas with a little snow cover (not far NW of NYC as seen on satellite).

Yea, it was a marginal warning event....but I feel it was warranted given first even to the season. February of an active winter....maybe not.

RGEM has been consistently showing C-1" from the norlunish feature on Saturday .. not much but would be nice for the areas that were shutout on Tuesday

With all the love I have for the NWS I can't get with the high-end snow map. Uniquely terrible - minus for weenie entertainment - and if the purpose is to inform EMS/other partners about a "realistic" worse case scenario they fail miserably. The computer generated 8-12" corridors and the water-driven enhancement makes no sense.

Mmm it matters in shoulder seasons. March bombs for ex definitely benefit from a diabatic heat flux

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

Crushing snow. Mansfield stake depth at #1 all-time (since 1954) for the date at 47”.

Here's the data for New York City: It should also be noted that snowfalls tend to be light during the first half of December when the AO/NAO/PNA are all negative.

I plan doing a little chasing but I think the RDU folks have moved on otherwise.

yeah IDK...I don't get it...there is so much out there you see stated that is either incorrectly stated or just flat out wrong.

Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that?

The warm nose that Holston mentioned in a prior post is often a problem for valley areas. It tends to be more prevalent towards Nashville and from Chattanooga to Knoxville. In this case there's also a general lack of heavy precip on some modeling and that doesn't cool the column as efficiently.

What’s also interesting about that is that the ensemble derived PNA index progs from all the three majors have +1 to +1.5 burst. It’s really the operational runs that have not been nesting an event in that period of time. It makes me wonder if something might materialize in there with shorter notice - experimental.

Actually...the only time sun angle matters is...summer. Think about going to the southern latitudes during the summer. It could be be just as hot/humid here but it feels WAY more intense at the southern latitudes with the sun directly over your noggin. When my girlfriend and I were on our cruise to Bimini in July...that was absolutely intense stuff. The nearly overhead sun angle is a killer

Thanks @SACRUS for your daily local climo updates and historical summary. Appreciated always. The historical summary brings back some nice memories from time to time. The 1989 stat from today brings back memories of the bitter cold December that was getting underway.

It's highly annoying to waste cold air...

Squalls already developing coming out of the mountains up here.

All of us know this…how come NWS and TV METS can’t seem to grasp it? And in December of all months lol.

I wish. Lol Xmas party with a different sphere

Good luck all. Hope you get some nice snow tomorrow