All Activity

More than a coating out here! Hope it juices up more for the metros though and/or you all get a decent hit Sunday.

Let's lock it in and get the golf courses open. I'll pick up Tblizz's canceled ski week reservations for a song.

I applaud that you are very even keeled and stick your guns even though your thoughts might differ from the consensus.

Wouldn't mind a little warm up if it means recentering the mean trough west of here so we can get some big dogs. Mid December 2013 warmed up prior to the epic period that followed. This pattern is cool in like January or February to maintain..

Im assuming we get the warm air faster as usual so im not expecting much tomorrow. This weekend looks intriguing though.

Yeah this is roughly where the developing SPV and shortwave trough, that eventually slides under it, are right now. There’s lots of little tweaks in the flow that could help this or hurt this in the coming days. As others have said, the end result is we want more “curl” of the vortmax so we can punch that dPVA further north.

In this darkest time of year, let the Euro be your guiding light

Ideally we get a little finger fronto well ahead of this as this tries to round the bend in the OV. Of course that means initially only a narrow area has fun, but good way to maximize snowfall. Can see some signs of it.

Who called you a hype artist?

Sure does. Can’t remember many years riding the train when I’ve spotted it this widespread this early.

Which is fine...whatever...just didn't see why I got called essentially a hype-artist...don't feel that is the case.

Sounds like a bit of gambler's fallacy also.

Latest Natty Blend.

Stop being reasonable.

Can you post the mean?

It's like clockwork ain't it?

There are other factors like the weakening La nina , MJO , etc.

Grateful that we live in such a beautiful region of the state of NC. To God be the glory for all that he has made

Some flop worse than LeBron James.

It will turn briefly milder tomorrow. Some rain showers are likely tomorrow night. Some wet snow showers could occur well north and west of New York City. It will then turn somewhat cooler for the remainder of the week, but the cold won't match today's chill. Light precipitation is possible during the weekend, especially on Sunday. The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000). The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were: 1. 30.6°, 2002 2. 32.2°, 2003 3. 32.4°, 2000 4. 33.1°, 2005 5. 33.4°, 2007 All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park. The WPO is forecast to become strongly negative beyond December 10th. That would likely contribute to the December 10-20 period also being colder to perhaps much colder than normal overall. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +17.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.921 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.1° (5.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023. A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

Welcome aboard.

Its elevation dependent . Only those that live high enough in the mountains of wv might see blizzard conditions.

I'd take those ECM runs every time. Weekend, daytime snow. 8-12hr duration. Temps freezing or below. We pray.

i don't think I want that!