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Absolutely take it. We are gonna get a thaw which lasts 3-4 weeks. Anytime we can grab 8 weeks of winter, we take it...even during our best winters IMBY. Plateau folks have longer stretches!

With our luck we get a 97-98 sequel rather than a 15-16.

We finally got the big winds but it was midnight

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

This is an experiment. I personally don't like 2011-12 and won't be using it in my winter outlook to be posted in mid-November. 2021-2022 is the only one from that set that will be used in my thinking. I'm just testing an experimental approach aimed at statistically generating analog cases with no human input to see how it does.

These are day-to-day runs, but we take this, right?

Lake spinners today?

Do you have Easton PA and Somerville NJ?

The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes: Any thoughts?

BWI: 3.5” DCA: 2.9” IAD: 5.0” RIC: 1.8” Tiebreaker (LYH): 1.0”

I’m putting up our Christmas decorations the weekend before Thanksgiving

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

Sounds and shades of 2010-11 almost. These days, if you give me a pattern evolution supporting 66.67% of calendar winter as actual winter, I'll take it. No questions asked.

BWI: 17.2 DCA: 14.8 IAD: 19.5 RIC: 11.7 SBY: 16.4

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February.

Unless you live in Tamaqua. Then it's just a gentle breeze...lol My top gust yesterday was 14.3 mph.

29 this morning with heavy frost on the Valley floor.

Oct: ISP: +2.7 (5.06) EWR: +1.8 (3.9) JFK: +1.2 (3.99) NYC: +0.6 (4.08) LGA: +0.1 (4.24)

Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1950) NYC: 84 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 77 (1982) Lows: EWR: 31 (1954) NYC: 30 (1885) LGA: 37 (1976) JFK: 36 (1983) Historical: 1846: 87 pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada that piled up to 5 feet deep with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Only 47 survivors lived to tell of the 'Donner Pass Tragedy'. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1848: When Joseph Henry came to the Smithsonian, one of his priorities was to set up a meteorological program. In 1847, while outlining his plan for the new institution, Henry called for "a system of extended meteorological observations for solving American storms." On November 1st, 1848, Joseph Henry and Navy meteorologist James Espy wrote a letter urging anyone interested in becoming a weather observer to signify their willingness to do so. By 1849, he had budgeted $1,000 for the Smithsonian meteorological project and established a network of some 150 volunteer weather observers. A decade later, the project had more than 600 volunteer observers, including people in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its cost in 1860 was $4,400, or thirty percent of the Smithsonian's research and publication budget. 1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum) 1870: United States Army Signal Corps observers at 24 sites around the country simultaneously made weather reports and transmitted them to Washington, where a national weather map would be drawn. These simultaneous reports also started the process of sending out weather reports by telegraph to metropolitan newspapers. This would be the beginning of our present-day National Weather Service. 1950: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1950 and 1974. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC ) Strong high pressure across the southeast ridged from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes and East Coast bringing record highs. Locations reporting all-time November record highs included: Baltimore, MD: 86°, Newark, NJ 85 ; Philadelphia, PA: 84°, New York (Central Park), NY: 84°, Allentown, PA: 81°. Other daily record highs included: Richmond, VA: 86°, Charleston, SC: 85°, Norfolk, VA: 85°, Washington, DC: 85°, Wilmington, DE: 85°, Charlotte, NC: 84°, Asheville, NC: 83°, Lynchburg, VA: 83°, Roanoke, VA: 83°, Chicago, IL: 81°, Atlanta, GA: 81°, Pittsburgh, PA: 80°, Dayton, OH: 79°, Bristol, TN: 79°, -Tied, Elkins, WV: 77°-Tied, Buffalo, NY: 76°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) 1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel) 1974: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1974 and 1950. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC ) 1982: This date began a five day heat wave across much of the east as high pressure anchored off the Carolina coast bringing a south to southwesterly flow. Record highs for the date included: Corpus Christi, TX: 88°-Tied, Meridian, MS: 86°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°, Huntsville, AL: 83°-Tied, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, Wallops Island, VA: 79°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 77°, Milton, MA: 74°-Tied and Worcester, MA: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gales and locally heavy rain to the northeastern U.S. The rainfall total of 1.46 inches at Newark NJ was a record for the date. New York City was soaked with more than two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong cold front ushered snow and arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow whitened North Dakota and the Central High Plains Region. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Denver CO. Yellowstone Park WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 4 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: The great ocean storm that had battered the East Coast of the U.S. for the past 2 days underwent a remarkable transformation. Convection grew and wrapped tightly around the center and on satellite imagery an eye formed. An Air Force reckon plane found a rather small but intense circulation near 39.5N/66.5W with a central pressure of 981 millibars or 28.97 inches mercury and sustained winds of 75 mph. Just a couple of days before, the large extratropical cyclone which contained former Hurricane Grace created havoc along the east coast. This type of evolution from a large extratropical low pressure to a small hurricane is rare but not unprecedented. The storm was never named, but it was the basis for the book and movie “The Perfect Storm”. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1993: A series of low pressure areas associated with the deep upper level trough which had been responsible for the record cold across the southern and central U.S. Over the past few days dumped big early season snows over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. 3-day totals included 19.5 inches at Ellenburg Depot, NY, 19 inches at Mount Mansfield, VT and Sabinsville, PA, and 18.5 inches at Stillwater Reservoir, NY. The 10.3 inches that fell at Mansfield, OH and 9 inches at Burlington, VT were the greatest snowfalls ever for so early in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2000: As road crews cleared snow from highways in western North Dakota, at least 3 tornadoes touched down 125 miles away in Bismarck, ND. The F1 twisters struck without warning in the early afternoon damaging 42 homes. Tornado watches and winter storm warnings were in effect for some locations in the Dakotas at the same time on this unusual weather day. 31.9 inches of snow fell at Lead, SD to establish a new 1-day snowfall record for November. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half or the windward side of the "Big Island" of Hawaii dumped 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in 24-hours, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2014: Interstate 40 has reopened along the Tennessee-North Carolina state line after being closed due to weather conditions earlier today. 22 inches of snow have been recorded at Mount LeConte, 15 at Newfound Gap and 12 in Hartford,TN in an early season snowstorm. A hiker has been seriously injured by a falling tree in the Greenbrier area of the Great Smoky Mountain National Park as a winter storm dumped heavy snow in the mountains. The park service said it would take some time to evacuate the "seriously injured" hiker due to weather conditions. (Ref.News Sentinel staff 7:23 AM, Nov 1, 2014) 2014: Up to 6 inches of snow fell in Gilbert, South Carolina.

Hi everyone. As it's November, I'd like to remind everyone that the next major holiday is Thanksgiving! A great American holiday that has nothing to do with Christmas!

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

Hophornbeam, hickory, white oak are up there with black locust, but Osage orange is tops, also the premier wood for bow construction and perhaps the weirdest fruit of any American tree. Power blinked last evening, now gusting 30+ which is decent here in the woods.

55 / 38 mostly clear and still breezy. Looking mainly dry as the euro lost the 3rd/4th system and warmer overall through the next week. Need to watch between the 8 - 11 for the next cutoff / system to bring next round of rains. Widespread freezes will look to evade the area the next 7 days at least.

I did leaves for the last time this season in the wind yesterday afternoon. For the most part it worked in my favor thanks to the wind direction except when I got on the leeward side of the house where I was triggered a couple times LOL. That said, it’s always interesting to me how out in the open you have the prevailing wind and then every now and then you get a close to an opposite wind direction, which is also triggering.