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Could it be a preliminary call? But ya that’s just such a ridiculous range.

Theyv'e been doing this and don't know why.

Yes, here we go

GEFS change

So I did see a different map posted that showed like specific amounts not those ridiculous ranges. I’m not sure what happened there.

I mean some get 10” in SWFE and they move fast. This could produce 10” in the favored spots that are cold enough and get the QPF imo. Best case scenario…early dismissal Tuesday, delayed opening Wednesday morning-win win. Worst case scenario-early dismissal Tuesday(which is a win), no school Wednesday.

Hopefully I can catch some twistser

Got one right hopefully i get the rest.. big winter incoming!

Winter Storm Watch hoisted for Sussex County, NJ - 4-7". Like my forecast for MBY of 2-4" from early this morning based on everything I've seen today.

How do you get paid to do this as a professional, and post a 2-11" range?

You’re understandably frustrated and I get it. You and I among many, both live in an area that should get multiple opportunities per year and we are lucky to get 1 shot every 3/4 seasons of late. I just think we’ve all got to take a breath. The models were showing near record temps for the exact period we’re talking about just a week ago, and now we’ve got fantasy storms. I’m not in any way discounting the EPS or the Euro Op - you’re 100% correct: nothing concrete is shown but an emerging -NAO, -AO, cold on our side of hemisphere and an active southern jet is all we can ask for at the moment. The way the models have performed, I don’t think we can definitively say yes/no to a storm any time soon. The trend is our friend right now, so I’ll take it.

.5-6” ok. Got it.

First watch of the year! We take!!

Well as long as ur looking forward to it

For those who care about such things: LOL

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

30.2F Light snow 1" Vis est 1.5 miles

I’ll be the first to say I need assistance via @GaWxto help with some case studies but I’d argue a big reason we’ve lacked winter storms in recent years comes down to the lack of a -NAO, which fortunately, the models are starting to catch up and show. We’ve lacked that for multiple seasons to help keep the cold bottled up on the east coast. Friday is prime example of how snowpack can help. Most of the models have a 1030ish HP to our north. That is never going to cut it unless the source region for our cold isn’t modifying. That snowpack is going to be a tremendous help in making sure that it doesn’t. It basically saves us from being dependent on a 1035+ in a perfect position to advect cold, dry air.

35F holding on to the dusting

Hey buddy, I wondered what happened to you. Glad you are still around.

Yes and where it sits for a bit double digits possible. i volunteer

I think its time I took a break since I seem to be coming off the way I am.

There will be one of those