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Not sure its an early read. It tends to happen more times than not in a Nina, probably in neutral ENSO as well. Anecdotally when we are in a Nino models tend to get more juiced as we get closer to an event. Not really too surprising when you think about the pattern tendencies.

if the MJO makes it to the west pacific(which, it shouldn't have too much trouble doing so) then the IPWP will be pushed further east in addition to upwelling some of the heat in the subsurface

If you want to get back at flies do it now. They are very slow at reacting this time of year. You don't have to even try that hard. If it lands on your knee just slap it they barely move and usually not in time. Fire pit evening? AI: Yes, flies are slower in the fall because their body temperature is dictated by the environment, and the cooling temperatures slow down their metabolism and flight ability. As temperatures drop, flies become sluggish.

Yup .. damage

I’m not sure it’s a true warm bias as much as there have been some absolute blowtorches in parts of the CONUS the last decade or so, and those are hard to pin down when ENSO seems to have a more muted impact? That said, the easiest call in wx seems to be winter warmth. I mean based on that graphic the last “cool” winter prior to last season was 2014-15. Ugly.

Looks light Could be a rumble or two of thunder with strongest shower activity but unfavorable time of day and shallow progged instability should limit this. Flow fields are pretty strong, with winds around 925 mb around 50-55 kt, but strongest jetcore is locked in a shallow inversion. Pattern looks similar to what we tend to find in late-Fall and the early-Spring with a strongly-forced line of downpours with brief gusty winds but limited severe weather potential.

The weekend will end on a very mild note. Temperatures will reach upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday. A cold front will move across the region tomorrow night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely. Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +4.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.575 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

it will be in the 70s tomorrow, it was 68 here today

Had a low of 22.6 here and had to sit outside for a kids soccer tournament in Gorham 830 to 2. It was coooooold

46 at 5:02, 81 at 4:34. Got a lot done outside.

And could you even say drier here and wetter northeast? And Yeah these are real time clues and not just baseless doom. Doesn't mean we can't get something this winter, but...if the models spit out juiced up solutions at like Day 3-4...hugging those willing just set us up for disappointment. Better to assume it's gonna be drier and than modeled and a smaller event...and be surprised if it doesn't

Traffic north of the Tappan Zee is always terrible, best to stay south of that line... 63 degrees currently and the looks to be a nice sunset setting up.

i thought he swung and missed at the 2nd HR last night that went literally out of the ballpark.

Damage?

The AAM is set for a rapid rise towards neutral. After having fallen to strongly negative values. The cause of this will be the addition of momentum from the upcoming pacific jet extention in conjunction with the MJO event. How this plays out should have an effect further down the road. The MJO is modeled differently on different systems currently. The EPS AI ensembles have been pretty robust with it. Ideally, we'd like to see the negative AAM anomalies propagate poleward to 60N over time. If so, there could be some actual potential for early winter northern blocking. Towards December perhaps. I'll be interested to see how this plays out..

The Winni River here is the lowest I’ve ever seen it.

Awesome man! Thanks for sharing.

My neighbor did last month, in winter it doesn't go to the top but we're gonna do it this year.

Thank you!

We all need to remember this for the winter. Early read is a trend towards drier solutions as we near an event.

Not The Cog, yet, but I took the van with the tracks on it in Feb of 2020, pretty damn cool if you like winter.

Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime...or even less often than that!...baseball player. He's just insanely talented. I don't think there's been a player even close to him, who was both a scary-good pitcher as well as an even scarier-good hitter/slugger and baserunner (steals). Maybe someone like Babe Ruth, who was a good pitcher and of course a hitter (though I think his best slugging was after he stopped pitching, when he was with the Yankees?). I think the only accomplishment Ohtani hasn't (yet?) gotten was the Cy Young. I wouldn't be surprised if he ever wins that and an MVP in the same season at some point, along with various hitting awards.

Almost made it to 70, 69 my high.

46/83 for the day today. Spectacular day. Love these cool start, warm finish type fall days. It's bone dry though, only 0.02" MTD