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This has been a rather tough forecast, mainly due to the fact that this will be developing directly overhead. However, it's hard to ignore model trends across southern Virginia and the NC mtns. I am now beginning to wonder if this will just begin as snow for most, considering the current observations are running a bit colder than what guidance has been showing. If it does begin as snow, I expect some of the higher totals to verify. One thing I have noticed is somewhere across central/southern VA, some mesoscale banding will likely produce some efficient snowfall rates. This is noted in a band of stronger FGEN running west to east as pictured below. Rates within this zone will likely see 1in/hr at times. NBM probabilistic guidance supports this with an area of higher probabilities across southern VA/NW NC. Based on 01z NBM of 24hr snowfall greater than 4.0 inches is now at: DAN: 60% ROA: 80% LYH: 80% TNB: 70% A very sharp drop in probabilities occur along and south of the VA/NC border. However, probabilities for at least 1.0 inch is around: GSO: 60% RAH: 40%

There’s no question that the CAD wedge has been the big winner in the SE US so far this month. My area has had almost every day mainly cloudy, rain on most days, and every day 12/1-7 has had highs only in the 50s! That’s very hard to do on every day for a week in early Dec with normal highs 10 degrees warmer. As a matter of fact, it’s so hard that this is the first time on record that it has happened with records going all of the way back to 1874! Interestingly, the highs have ticked down each day this month: 59, 58, 55, 54, 53, 52, and 50. I see that GSO has had all highs only in the 40s Dec 1-7. I wonder if that’s ever on record happened there. Anyone know?

Nice

So snow to our south(way to our south), and snow to our north, and snow to our west, and snow to our east out at sea,…is the new paradigm? Ya…that’s just called bad fortune imo.

We had one here in 2017 and NYC had one last year. Sucks there.

good 0z gfs run

The best… Still follow him on Instagram‼️

Found Larry https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/dztjCP6W9Cw?pli=1 Cold&dry

May the grace of God be with you, your family and wife. I lost a very special friend to the big C a few years ago. She was robbed of a beautiful life much too soon. Hopefully, your wife can beat this bastard.

'95-96 was weak La Nina. 2010-11 was a moderate to strong La Nina. Both featured alot of cold and Snow. I've not looked into how the Walker or Hadley Cells were those Winters. don't know if you can get Archived Data irt that. Maybe you can see what you can find Jax. I will say, if they were active in the way the upcoming is predicted, I wonder if the strong Blocking those Winters countered that. ?. Law of physics would say strong upstream Blocking would alter the effects of the Cells thereby keeping the Jet from being forced North . Of course, there would be a battle between the two as they'd war against each other. So, depending on how strong the EWB'S are and how persistent I suppose on whether they would force the Block out or not. Of course , as of now strong Blocking doesn't exist on ensembles. They actually look as if what blocking there is is eroding but, that could be them seeing the Cells forcing doing that. The Other fly in the Ointment is what Carvers mentioned about the MJO. How will that affect the Cells typical response.?.

I’ve been waiting on these past couple of systems to let some fresh snow build up before heading out for turns, and I went on an afternoon/evening ski tour today, so I can pass along some conditions updates. As of this morning we’d picked up about an inch of snow in the valley from the disorganized cold front that hit the area, then we had a brief lull in snowfall during the morning today before snows from the next clipper started to fall around midday. We’d picked up another inch or two in the valley by the time I popped up to the mountain in the late afternoon. The flakes this afternoon had been on the smaller side, so accumulations didn’t come on too quickly, but we were getting a medium-weight snow with some density to it. Up in the Bolton Valley Village at 2,000’ they were similarly receiving those fairly small flakes, although the snowfall intensity was certainly a notch up from what I’d seen in the valley. I toured in the 2,000 – 2,500’ elevation range using the Wilderness Uphill Route, and you can really feel the way that the pattern of system after system has been building that surface snow. My depth checks in that elevation range revealed that untouched areas generally have 15-18” of powder above the old subsurface from the last thaw. I’m sure the surface snow is a bit deeper up around 3,000’ and above, and the total snowpack depth is presumably in that ~50” range based on the latest depth report from the Mt. Mansfield Stake. In areas that had seen some skier traffic, I was generally skiing in 5-6” of powder, and that seems to match up fairly well with the 6 inches of new snow that Bolton Valley is reporting in the past 48 hours as of this afternoon’s snow report. There should be at least a few more inches reported as of the morning report the way it’s been snowing down here in the valley. With the small flakes falling while I was up at the mountain, the powder density was in the light to medium range, so it offered some resistance. In untouched areas of powder you really need moderate to steep slope angles because the powder is just too deep for really good movement on low angle slopes, but those areas with about half a foot of powder skied well on any slope angle. I was on mid-fats for today’s tour, but I suspect one could go with anything in the mid-fat to fat range by tomorrow morning. Based on the accumulations n my car when I got back from my tour I’d say it was snowing in the 0.5”/hr. range or more. It may not have felt like the snowfall was that robust, but if you’re accumulating in that range with such small flakes, you’re certainly getting some liquid equivalent down. My tour took me from late afternoon light to dusk to December’s early darkness, and there was all that snowfall on top of it that further reduced visibility. For once I’d planned ahead and had a clear lens on my goggles and a full charge for my headlamp, so even with the snowfall I had really good visibility for my descent. There were numerous other skiers out there touring by headlamp, and after this evening’s great experience with the snow quality, visibility, and temperatures, I’m definitely looking forward to more headlamp powder skiing. It was so much fun that I’m starting to think about getting a dedicated headlamp for these types of tours – with LEDs you can get them so bright now compared to a decade or two ago. The storm had progressed to much larger, upslope-style flakes by the time I got home, and the density of the accumulating snow had definitely come down. My evening liquid analyses revealed that the afternoon portion of the storm produced snow with an average density of 5.6% H2O, so the snow was certainly getting fluffier as the system progressed.

Dont forget Larry Cosgrove Then years later his online updates is he still with us

Nov-Dec 2000 was huge IMBY. System snow and lake effect. Dec 2008 was also very memorable, though the pack melted fast during the holidays with a lot of rain. 2008-2009 was a wet one with both rain and snow.

30.6 with a 100% humidity. I checked Newport News INTL they also have a 100% humidity. That's bizarre. The sky is clear.

Also got down to -5 here. NWS reported a wind chill of -13 which my brief walk outside confirmed. Nasty cold.

Perfect post. December…for the most part sucks for snow in SNE. Sure, we’ve had some good ones. But way more bad ones. That’s just how it goes in SNE. The cold is in place…we may hit on something yet. But it’s nothing unprecedented if we don’t. Ya, we’ll waste a good cold pattern…but that’s happened about a thousand times before also. As Powderfriek said…it ebbs and flows. SNE was killing it for a good long while, it’s a bitch when you go back to the shit barrel. But we knew it was coming. Now we need a good double or triple to break us out of the slump, we’ll get it.

another in a parade of phantoms

Anybody notice how far south the Wed shortwave has gotten on the GFS? It gets the 500mb 540dm contour all the way down into the Carolinas this run (0z). It's been steadily shifting south for maybe a half dozens runs now. It probably doesn't mean much given the relative short range (and lack of support)... but any further south and northern parts of the region would be in the game for some wintry precip. The Poconos are already in the game. I-84 region is borderline.

Do you see any decent winter weather opportunities for the southern plains moving forward?

This might wake a few folks up. Long way to go, but nice to see...

Dude, was driving back just now from Richmond to Charlottesville and it was thick as pea soup out there. Never seen it that bad....whole dang way home

Gfs shows a snowstorm for the 16th even down to the coastal plain.

30.6, GFS still has 2-3 inches here.

Eyeballing about 1.5”. Had snow on and off for a good part of the afternoon and it became steady later in the day, ending with a heavier burst. I think there is 6”-8” on the ground now. It is enough to buzz the snowmobiles around the yard for a bit. Down to 15.2°.

Just look at the storm tracks, and all the sharp cutoffs south and east. It's been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (with the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022.) If you live in a coastal area, like Atlantic City, you're not going to see much snow this year.