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LOL, meanwhile I'm sitting at 39.1/37.0 at 8:30 pm (and KROA and KBCB sitting at 45) after a 46.2 high, that'll likely get beat later tonight. Been a crazy past few days, nights warmer than daylight hours, temps falling all afternoon after a early morning high, temps stuck around 40 all day then 55 overnight..... Winds blowing 30-50 mph from all directions within 24 hours, and more gusty winds forecast for tomorrow and Tuesday with a high wind warning.

the Wizards won again.... huh.

Last year the EPS busted so hard on that February storm and that was like 5 days out, I gotta get something to within like 2-3 days to feel any level of confidence.

Light freezing rain, back steps and slate patio are iced up.

I think 6” attainable here, and a nice score given this kind of popped up in the last 48 hours

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

I’m not looking past the NYD event right now. Anything after that is gravy.

Best bet is to get ice and snow shield covering. 3-6' feet up from your gutters. Also. A ridge vent does wonders.

His schtick.

I've lost count of how many bourbons and voddy tonics I have had today. Not really that many, but enough. I think its time for bed lol.

Yeah looks like we will be lucky to get to 5-6” at this rate. .

deck is a sheet of ice here, hoping temps rise overnight, we have work and places to go, this is the one thing I don't like about winter weather...ZR!

I had more yards taking my trash to the curb than the Birds had in the second half. I’ll enjoy the win but have serious doubts about any sort of playoff run.

Preliminary scoring for December 2025 (version 1, raw scores only) _ note for raw scores in anomalies greater than +5 or -5, error deductions are 1 pt per 0.1 error in range 5.0 to actual, and raw scores are no lower than 0.1 per correct-sign predicted 0.1 deg. When an anomaly exceeds 10.0, scores are then based on a proportional basis, for example, a +5.5 forecast against an +11.0 outcome scores 50 (raw). As another example, a forecast of +0.7 scores 07 if that is higher than the raw score would otherwise be. ... then a max-60 rule is invoked if no raw score is above 60. These max 60 scores are generally in equal increments from zero to 60, adjusted by fairness considerations when compared to the spread of raw scores. I have some objective rules that I try to apply to that adjustment but with contest results perhaps depending on exactly what the details will be (you can see DEN, PHX scores and possibly IAH will need adjustments), I will just give you the raw scores now and will be working out how adjustments affect the overall annual outcome. No idea in advance what that's going to look like (although I can't see potential for outcome to be changed by the max-60 adjustments) ... <<< Raw scores only >>> FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 30 _ 80 _ 60_ 170 _170_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 180 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 52 _ 96 _ 50_ 198 _198_ 04 _ 26 _ 24 _054__ 252 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 80 _ 40_ 160 _160_ 10 _ 10 _ 40 _060__ 220 ____ Normal ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 20 _ 70 _ 20 _ 110 _110__ 00 _ 00 _ 30 _030__ 140 wxallannj ______________________ 20 _ 22 _ 26 _068 _ 34 _ 86 _ 54 _174 _242 _ 20 _ 34 _ 80 _134__ 376 DonSutherland1 ________________20 _ 40 _ 40 _100 _ 86 _ 80 _ 52 _218 _318 _ 14 _ 12 _ 32 _058 __ 376 BKViking _______________________24 _ 26 _ 34 _084 _ 54 _ 88 _ 44 _186 _270 _ 13 _ 34 _ 60 _107 __ 377 ___ Consensus ________________26 _ 34 _ 36 _ 096 _76 _ 86 _ 42 _204 _300_ 10 _ 20 _ 40 _070__370 so_whats_happening __________ 28 _ 26 _ 32 _084 _ 72 _ 86 _ 44 _202 _286 _ 11 _ 32 _ 42 _085__ 371 Tom ____________________________38 _ 54 _ 56 _148 _ 98 _ 52 _ 30 _180 _ 328 _ 06 _ 20 _ 52 _078__ 406 RJay ___________________________ 40 _ 40 _ 40 _120 _ 80 _ 94 _ 30 _204_ 324_ 10 _ 20 _ 40 _070__ 394 RodneyS _______________________ 72 _ 60 _ 46 _178 _ 86 _ 20 _ 38 _126 _ 304 _ 13 _ 05 _ 40 _058__ 362 Roger Smith ____________________ 80 _ 76 _ 90_ 246_ 62 _ 04 _ 00 _066 _312_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 312 wxdude64 ______________________88 _ 62 _ 66 _ 216 _ 86 _ 20 _ 06 _112 _328_ 00 _ 08 _ 76 _084__ 412 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 00 _ 16 _ 10 _026 _ 00 _ 60 _ 72_ 132 _158_ 57 _ 59 _ 72 _188 __346 EXTREME FORECASTS as of preliminary scoring ... DCA _ wxdude would win with lowest forecast NYC, BOS _ Roger Smith would win with lowest forecasts ORD _ currently just outside a win-loss outcome (4th lowest forecast high score) ... outcomes below -4.1 would make it a win-loss (RodneyS, wxdude64 win; Roger Smith loss) IAH, DEN, PHX, SEA _ definitely four wins for wxallannj with high forecasts, Mercurial also (as non-regular entrant for IAH). BKViking ties for PHX. ===================== <<< RAW SCORES for DEN and PHX will need converting to max-60, IAH possibly also but adjustments there would be very small anyway >>> Will adjust around end of month and merge with annual scoring ... given the lead Tom had before this month I cannot see how the raw-score to max-60 adjustments can remove enough of his differential to make much difference to what currently looks like Tom maintaining a 150-200 point advantage over nearest rivals. (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Mercurial ______________________ +4.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 __-0.5 _+0.5 _+2.0___ -1.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.5 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ -1.6 _+1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.8 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ______________________ -1.0 _ -1.1 __-1.3 ___ -0.7 _+0.8 _+1.7 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 DonSutherland1 ________________-1.0 _ -2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.3 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___+1.4 _+1.1 _ +0.1 BKViking _______________________-1.2 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ___ -1.7 _+0.9 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ________________ -1.3 _ -1.7 _-1.8 ___ -2.8 _+0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __________ -1.4 _ -1.3 _ -1.6 ___ -2.6 _+0.8 _+1.2 ___+1.1 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Tom ____________________________-1.9 _ -2.7 _-2.8 ___ -3.9 _-0.9 _+0.5 ___+0.6 _+1.5 _+1.1 RJay ___________________________ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.0 _+1.2 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 RodneyS _______________________ -3.6 _-3.0 _-2.3 ___ -4.7 _-2.5 _+0.9 ___+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ____________________-4.0 _-3.8 _-4.5 __ -5.9 _ -3.3 _ -1.5 ___-3.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.4 wxdude64 ______________________-4.4 _-3.1 _-3.3 __ -4.7 _ -2.5 _ -0.7 ___-0.9 _+0.8 _+2.3 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ +0.4 _-0.8 _-0.5 __+1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4 ___+5.7 _+3.9 _+2.1 =====================

Welcoming the warmer temp and rain. I got an ice dam on my roof. Luckily no roof leak (yet) never had an ice dam before. Gotta get the attic insulation fixed

4.1” @ 6pm 10F Better returns are setting up SW of the metro, so totals will likely end up higher down that way. Should have light/moderate snow for another 5-6 hours.

Yes there was

My sister in Austin, Texas is complaining about 80 degree highs. I said, don't live in Austin, TX.

You say that so much it's lost all meaning.

It’s like symbolically the Earth is struggling to come up with ways to preserve itself from tipping over into a point of no return. Imagine if in 50 years science proves how close we were and didn’t know. Like we came that close to ending our ours and countless other species if it were not for that mere decimal AD response -

You cold. 29f here Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

December recap and January preview...LOTS to dicsuss and more to come. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/december-colder-than-forecast.html

I’d actually be pretty surprised if we don’t end up with a couple decent snowstorms this winter when all is said and done. I’m honestly more surprised at the measly amounts for mby so far given the cold air around. And even more surprised than that, that there hasn’t been a wsw level snowfall while I’ve been out west the last couple weeks lol. Seems like the pattern hasn’t changed a whole lot with the missing ingredient mostly just being a lack of a southern stream/stj.