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Next weeks event is looking worse and worse. Maybe we could squeeze out 2-3” Sunday?

My oldest hen is 5, the buff, and at her old age she won't step on ice or snow, unless she absolutely has to, lol. My biggest concern this time of year is Hawks. The ermine I had slinking around their run a month or so back has moved on. Had it's fill of meadow voles, couldn't get into their run, and thankfully took off.

I'd think we want the GFS to be more correct but further north. If we're waiting on precip till later on Tuesday I don't think the high will hang on.

Cool graphic on Tomer’s page. Strong signal for a torch .. except for us, lack of the black shading indicates there is much more uncertainty for us warm sectoring - while Central Jersey is 75 we could be stuck in the 30s/40s.

Phew that's rough

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that spring begins for good during the week of March 9-16. The weeklies suggest the following teleconnection pattern during the second half of March: WPO-/ EPO+/ AO+/ PNA-. Using NYC as an example for the Northeast, the mean March 16-31, 1980-2025 temperature for such teleconnections is 46.6°. For all other cases, it is 45.3°. So, one isn't exactly looking at a cold pattern with those forecast teleconnections. Moreover, the ECMWF weeklies don't show a cold pattern. Fortunately, teleconnection forecasts are not skillful beyond two weeks. If one is looking for a genuinely colder pattern to develop, an AO- would offer perhaps the strongest possibility. Even leaving the other teleconnections as they are currently forecast (WPO-/EPO+/PNA-) but combining them with an AO- , the March 16-31, 1980-2025 mean temperature was 42.9°.

1ku

Never thought I'd say it, but I'm ready.

It’s hard this time of year for me letting them out. Snow melts near their run entrance and water puddles up but by 3 it’s in the 20s and refreezing. I don’t need them freezing their feet all night.

GFS is snowless for the run essentially at 18z

Winter meets spring vibe in that photo… Sun angle evident, but ground frozen solid.

The problem is the Euro dampens out the first wave and keys in on the second one. We've lost Thermols by the time the Euro brings in precip.

My position is as follows: ...any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/?do=findComment&comment=7876310 Washington, DC with its warmer climate than NYC provides a classic example with Winter 2009-10. Norfolk, Richmond, and Washington, DC have all see a number of significant and major snowstorms since 2010 with climates that are warmer than New York City's will be even a decade or more in the future.

We want euro south,... GFS north lol

Except for some hollow 3000k ft up on a mountain that’s seen 350in.

18z GFS is a pretty widespread CAD event. Definitely an interesting pattern with the wedge in place.

Very uniform totals in SNE coast to hills. Extremely rare

The last few Euro Weeklies runs have been showing no sign of a significant cooldown in late March or first half of April in the mid-Atlantic and most of the E US and thus are in total disagreement with Joe Bastardi’s near annual prediction of a cold late March and early April: Mar 16-22: Mar 23-29: Mar 30-Apr 5: Apr 6-12:

Well, see, there's the issue. It took several pages but we finally figured it out. Cory is 4'11". 36" would literally eat him.

Sure do!

48 today. Drip drip drip

AIGFS pushing 90 degrees at end of run

Rain had ended for now. Picked up .37". Had a high of 67 before the clouds and rain came.