All Activity

That's the feel over in the enso thread.

Something I'm not observing are humans on the Accuweather TV Channel. Lately whenever I've tuned in it's been just automated graphics, even during morning and evening prime time.

Nobody knows with any certainty, just like any other year, but most there speak with way too much certainty imho. The only person who is consistently decent with seasonal forecasting year in and year out is Raindancewx. His forecast for our neck of the woods is slightly BN. He doesn't rely on modeling. I do! Lol I say go with the Cansips and forget the daily back and forth.

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

We don’t want cold blasting to the Deep South and the snow ends up hitting the Carolinas. Give me slightly below normal temps with chances of precipitation & we will score some snow.

Just expect the worst every year is what I learned

Yea we're in real trouble. Winter is essentially on life support at this point.

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

I mean are they wrong through (at least with December)? We've seen time and time again that when a SER establishes itself it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage and have a winter weather chance again.

It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening.

32.0° -SN 0.1” IMG_6993.mov

LOLOL

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,394th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That ties the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +38.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.805 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some mood flakes. 37/31

Wind warnings likely Friday

Trainwreck. SER flexes on Weeklies. Looks like only part of the US that's going to benefit from the weakened PV will be mainly the Rockies and Plains. Euro Weeklies go from well above first 2 weeks to a basic Average look weeks 3 and 4 as SER is finally squashed. Of course, nothing is set in Stone as we've witnessed these change drastically recently. If they're not factoring the MJO much there may be a drastic change if MJO 8 flexes. Fwiw, the CFSv2 Weeklies are even worse. Wall to wall well above Normal.

LOT is certainly intrigued. FWIW. Probably should pick the snowblower from Ace Hardware. Dropped it off for pre season maintenance service in October 2019.

We need it to cooperate. It is a bigger factor than the nao imo.

Another bold post

Are they even useful anymore ? Even if they showed cold they shouldn't come out everyday. We have to be patient

It would also help if Monken wasn't such a greedy dolt. Your OL fucking sucks. Your QB has bad wheels right now. Stop with the slow developing pass plays. Get Mitchell more involved.

OL is not good, and hopefully Emery Jones gets a shot at one of the guard positions. Defense is good enough if Hamilton isnt seriously injured. Biggest wildcard is Lamar's health going forward. He can cover up the weak OL if he is able to run around and buy time in the pocket, or take off downfield. He can't do that right now.

ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out.

Check this out regarding 8+ day long MJO phase 8 since 1974-5: Fifteen 8+ day winter phase 8 periods back to 1974-5 in # of days, amp, (practical) # days of preceding phase 7; Balt snow/temps: -1/19-31/75: 13; amp 2.1; 3; 3.5”/MA -12/19/75-1/5/76: 18; amp 1.0; 2; 0.5”/B -1/27-2/3/76: 8; amp 2.3; 4; 1.3”/N -2/8-15/76: 8; amp 1.8; 4; T/A -2/20-28/1978: 9; amp 1.8; 3; T/B -2/17-26/82: 10; amp 1.1; 0; 5.2”/N -1/21-30/83: 10; amp 1.5; 0; T/N -1/12-22/85: 11; amp 1.6; 9; 2.8”/MB -12/31/87-1/7/88: 8; amp 1.2; 6; 4.3”/MB -2/21-29/88: 9; amp 3.2; 5; T/B -12/9-18/89: 10; amp 1.1; 4; 5.5”/MB -1/2-9/97: 8; amp 1.9; 6; 2.4”/MA -2/16-24/99: 9; amp 2.1; 4; 0.6”/B -2/7-17/10: 11; amp 1.7; 16; 19.6”/MB -2/15-23/19: 9; amp 1.9; 1 (5); 4.5”/A ——————— Analysis of above: - The # of days of phase 7 preceding these long phase 8 periods have a large majority of the time been <7 days (counterintuitive?). - Consistent with the great post today of @bluewave, look how sharply the frequency has dropped off: 5 in the 2nd half of 70s, 6 in the 80s, 2 in the 90s, none in the 00s, 2 in the 10s, and none in the 1st half of the 20s. -So, from 1974-5 through 1989-90, there was an avg. of 0.7/winter. But since 1990-1, there has been a mere 0.1/winter or only 1/7 the frequency! -But when they occur, they still have been leaned pretty hard on snow and cold based on Baltimore: Temps: MA: 2 A: 2 N: 3 B: 4 MB: 4 - So, twice as many cold as mild - Total snowfall 50.2” over these 151 days, which means an average of 0.33” per day. That’s almost 150% of the Jan-Feb 1974-2025 average daily snow of 0.23”. - So, although they’ve been much harder to come by, lengthy phase 8 periods remain highly desirable for a winter lover in the E US. @donsutherland1

I keep telling people this but no one wants to listen. I’m not an, “I told you so!” guy….but I’m not gonna be shocked if we lose once or twice to Pittsburgh and teams like NE/GB