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looks like it got removed all together

First freeze at Westhampton-dropped to 31.

Is it still a mistake if you correct it? https://youtu.be/MMHy_AJWwvY?si=sTO47o4uYd6UWfWH

makes sense, by the time we get to the "I" storm it's usually the heart of the season

Tool Spotlight #1: The Ensemble Meteogram https://cpaweatherlab.com/tools/ensemble/ What it is. Most forecasts you see are a single answer: 68 and sunny, half an inch of rain. But that answer comes from one run of one model, and the atmosphere is chaotic enough that tiny errors in the starting conditions grow into big differences a few days out. NOAA handles this by running its Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 31 times, four times a day, each run starting from slightly different conditions. The Ensemble Meteogram takes all 31 of those forecasts for any spot in Pennsylvania and lays them side by side out to 16 days: temperature, rain, snow, wind, clouds and the overall pressure pattern, plus a day-by-day table of the odds. Instead of one guess, you see the whole range of what the models think could happen. How to use it. Pick a city from the Location menu, tap a dot on the little map, or hit "Use my location." The tiles across the top give you the headline numbers for that spot: the median rain total for the period, the chance of at least half an inch, the chance of a freeze and the chance of an inch of snow. Below that, each chart works the same way. The solid line is the median (the middle member), the darker band holds the middle half of the 31 members, and the lighter band holds 80 percent of them. Use the 7 / 10 / 16 day buttons to zoom in or out, and the Model Run menu if you want to look at an earlier run. The spread is the forecast. Check the "Show all 31 members" box and you'll see every individual forecast drawn as its own thin line. Look at this week for Harrisburg: through Saturday the lines are practically stacked on top of each other, which means the models agree and you can trust the numbers. Starting around Tuesday they fan out, with highs anywhere from the low 50s to the upper 70s on the same day. That isn't the tool being broken; that's the honest answer. When the lines fan out, any single-number forecast for that day is basically a coin flip. "Compare with previous run" helps here too: if the median keeps jumping from one run to the next, confidence should stay low even if the latest run looks tight. Rain odds you can actually read. The precipitation chart shows rain piling up over time, with blue bars for the chance of at least a hundredth of an inch in each 6-hour block. Right now it shows nothing through Saturday, then the bars jump on Sunday as the members agree rain is coming. The Day by Day table turns all of that into plain percentages, and they're simple member counts: Sunday's 87% chance of measurable rain means about 27 of the 31 members produce it, and the 61% for a quarter inch or more means about 19 of them do. Shaded cells make the wet days jump out, and the "80% range" next to each high and low tells you how wide the uncertainty is. Why it's worth your time, and a few caveats. Knowing the odds is more useful than a single number when you're planning anything outdoors, deciding whether to cover the garden, or watching for a storm a week out. It also teaches you to spot a shaky forecast before it busts. A few honest limits: each grid point is about 35 by 25 miles, so it won't capture your valley or ridge, and the NWS point forecast is still better for local detail. The GEFS also tends to be a bit overconfident, so real-world odds for extremes are a little wider than it shows. Highs and lows come from 6-hourly output and can miss the true extremes by a degree or two. Use it for timing and odds, and let it tell you how much to trust everything else you're reading. Give it a try and post what you find. Data: NOAA/NCEP GEFS v12, processed on the CPA Weather Lab server. Not an official forecast. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Just got home from work. 55° in the house. Windows open!

A bit different antecedent moisture conditions now than before the last tropical system that came this way to say the least. Scary dry IMBY, definitely want the rain but not the wind.

So sorry to hear of the loss of your Mom, CG. Praying for peace for y'all during this most difficult of times. Lost my Mom 6 years ago and my Dad in 1998. Seems like forever some days and some days it seems like yesterday. Hang in there my friend.

Here is a bit of a "banter" post

Honestly I hope this thing moves east. We need the rainfall. May cause minor flooding but it is what it is.

I hope you are correct. I hope it rains Sat night to Sunday night. It is looking more likely a pretty strong storm to hit the mobile bay area and then move northward and the rains spread out oVer TN/NC

There have been a lot of notable "I" names retired this century alone. Ian, Ida, Igor, Ike, Iris, Isabel, Irene, Ivan, Ingrid, Irma. That's 10 out of 25 years, and you can throw in a greek I as well, Iota in 2020.

Recon found 990 extrapolated; I would guess 995 or so on the drop, based on the last two passes. EDIT: Drop was was 996 @ 23 kt = 994mb

So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it? It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post: Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

A shame the rains seemingly keep happening on the weekends, but we still need it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

WB 12Z ensemble precip. Totals through Monday afternoon.

riding it hoping this is a good omen for a winter of insane cutters

Afternoon updated 5 Day QPF forecast is out.

Those are beautiful web cam shots indeed. It's good to see at least a little bit of snow on those high peaks. Here on the northern front range we don't even have that. I fish on the Poudre River quite a bit and it is basically a trickle now. Many lakes and reservoirs are drying up. If this winter doesn't at least start making a dent in this drought, things are going to get pretty ugly water-wise.

Agree with this. I've lived on the front range since the '60's. It was fairly common to have early snow storms in October, or even in September (September 1971 was memorable). We would almost always have 1 or 2 snows in the books by Halloween. Now the front range often doesn't see its first snow until November, or even later. Looking back, IMHO things shifted around the year 2000 to warmer and drier. Bummer for those of us who don't like that!

It's a start!

The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

What a difference a few hours make. From a broad and weak low to a clearly aligning and tighter center. Winds are responding almost immediately. If it can avoid dry air entrainment as it organizes today, I would favor a peak at major status.