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Well. He just replied to my comment on the other forum and seems to be backtracking a little bit

I, well I really don't get that at all. SO many times we've heard good Mets say why XYZ solution doesn't make sense... as in today's "storm". The good ones raised flags everywhere when certainmodelsstartedshowingbig hits, seen it a million times over the years... and then you have the social media twats.

I understand, but my point was that it is quite remarkable that currently California is in better shape than any other state drought-wise, whereas in December 2000 many other states were similarly situated to California in being drought-free. Was there any previous month prior to January 2026 in US history where California was the drought-free leader among all states?

They were just putting brine on rt2 seems a bit early for that

Awful run:

Devastated. Thought this one had legs up in north Mecklenburg county by the lake.

Hopefully we go on a big run. Not much more to say…wait and see. Lots of winter left is the bright side at the moment.

yes

GFS AI has been relatively steadfast.

We got to webb this one in.

They still have Hulk Hogan on beer commercials during wrestling.

Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE

You begin to wonder if it starts snowing predawn Saturday and just continues into Monday AM. Just one long duration snow event that piles up

Man it’s chilly. 21 with windchill in the lower teens to single digits at times.

Ya but Nam replacement, Rgem and aigfs are in the same camp. It’s not alone.

and i always give up right before

NAM 4 life!

It's the GFS though. Always a tease even as the preponderance of guidance suggests this is an outright miss. Gotta see something from the Euro.

It’s still early in the game. Not a great Happy Hour GFS but there’s still time.

HH Cheers

the RGEM is actually really similar to the AI models... has the main precip with the PVA ahead of the main vort

Snow! Somewhere in the south, but not settled on where. A range of 6” to nothing for many per model guidance. Some solutions snow on the fish in the Atlantic, a few are almost at the Tennessee border. Also, a range of temps from “it will work” to “not a chance.” Much clarity added in the time you’ve been away!

Ai gfs insists for Sunday as well

GFS folding like a towel. Horrible model. The Euro aint perfect but it is Superior. Like @BooneWXsaid, hopefully short range models start picking up on something and lead the way

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.