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I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though.

I'd rather be in Methuen than Tolland.

Early December worked last year for the Triad

Yep, not even close to 06z run...

A bone chilling 17 today. Going to be another cold day of tap.

Not home, but looks to be hammering pretty good from that lake band into SVT https://video.nest.com/clip/b21d5e083d6447f59b8e9ecb69b36a00.mp4

BTW, if any of you use pivotal… The new beta site is way more friendly, especially mobile. Much more easier to use and not clunky like the legacy version.

Yeah that thing has been all over the place.

That's not a bad look for the MJO if that were to materialize. Having it decay in Phase 8 and enter the COD opens the door for more prolonged cold and semi-active periods. Hopefully this is a sticky forecast.

Just saw it. lol. That model.

12z? 6z was liquid to Laconia. What a model.

The MJO was fairly chaotic into Maritime/WP this cycle but it was into still the Maritome the first week of Nov,i need to go back and read it more thoroughly for myself,thanks for sharing this,John

Surprised nobody posted the ICON..... Pretty huge hit well down into CT. Ginxy gonna text Scooter soundings in a few minutes.

It is due to climate change. The trade winds unevenly distribute the warmer water to the western pacific. This phenomenon only temporarily bounces back during El Niño years, and doesn’t even fully do this anymore. It’s here to stay.

The MJO appears to be progressing ideally for our Area through December. However, the AO and NAO are not if guidance were to be right. Of course, those Domains cannot be forecasted with great accuracy, particularly the NAO. The good thing that can mitigate the Effects of the positve Arctic Oscillation Modes is the weak south displaced PV. We saw that in 2015 and a couple recent Years. However, if you want much greater Odds for across the Board Snowstorms you want the Arctic Domain Negative. As witnessed , most notably in 2015, Northern Area's can do well as long as the PV is weak and displaced well South in Canada.

I know things are looking decent when we are seeing embedded tweets in French.

State salt trucks are filled and sitting along rt. 23 in Sussex county. Guess they're expecting some lake effect snow showers this afternoon. They learned their lesson a couple weeks ago. Lol

someone tell me why i'm supposed to care about ski resorts

MLI will exceed its 2024-25 total in 2025-26 before December. Thinking 4-6" here. Hoping the dryslot/potential end as rain in sunday morning isn't too bad.

Interesting signal on the HRRR for some lake enh in far SE WI and Lake County IL. A limiting factor of that would be 1:6-1:8 ratios with the warmer air.

Any updates on Sunday and Tuesday...supposed to start a new job with a steep and shady driveway between Miller's Creek and West Jefferson. 24 here at our place in Jefferson with slight winds and partly cloudy. Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving!

C-1" ---> rain. Good for the ski resorts in NY and southern VT though! They need snow.

If only we can get the AO and NAO Negative. A weak South displaced PV ala 2015 might still work for Northern Area's. If you want great Odds for SE Snowstorms you want a Negative AO and NAO. Very rarely we see all these line up anymore.

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).