All Activity

That’s not a bad look at this early stage. I think we see imported on out.

This snow hole issue we’ve been having over our area the past few years is nothing short of incredulous. Snow to the north of us. Snow to the south of us. Snow to the west of us. The combination between the -PNA and the raging northern jet is just killing us. By no means am I throwing in the towel for winter 2026, but I’m already looking forward to winter 2027 with an El Niño and +PNA.

EURO and EURO AI focus on SE areas, GEFS mostly OTS, and GEPS develops a bit too late, but decent SOP.

I’ll take a quiet period at Christmas.Though I’d to cash in the last of the clipper train Pattern reload.

Yeah the snowpack took a surprisingly big hit. Nice squalls moving in from the north. Ready 2 squall.

This is similar to what happened last year at this time with the models. Last December started with the extended guidance locking in the -EPO for the whole month. But as we approached the December 10th, the models caught onto how much stronger the Pacific Jet would be and the warmer +EPO pattern. Now the Pacific Jet is forecast to be much stronger mid-December than was indicated last week. Notice how much deeper the +EPO vortex is forecast to be now even with a near record -WPO 500 mb block. In the old days we would usually have the Pacific Jet weaken and we get more of a -WPO -EPO block. So we are on track for our annual warm up from December 17th to 25th. The +EPO is now forecast to becomes more dominant for our sensible weather than the -WPO as the Pacific Jet overpowers the pattern again. New run Old run

Truth, somewhere along the way it all went wrong.

p rough look gonna end up a seriously two-faced month

How did ensembles in all camps look?

I wish. Many say we don't do snowstorms and winter like we used to. There is truth to that, but we also don't do heat waves like we used to either.

Happened a LOT in the 80s. The worst was 1989. Coldest month in my lifetime and the one big storm was mainly rain. Back then cold dry/warm wet was EXPECTED.

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now.

Buy. Been touting that for a month.

Sunday, but in some cases, both.

That would probably be a bit better than implied across my area, over to @HIPPYVALLEY in Greenfield due to some modest mid level banding.

Canceling Sunday or the winter?

For kicks and giggles, take a look at the blizzard warning posted for West VA.

Pattern favors DC to VA area

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling. We have an uber-fast flow with two tiny parcels of energy from the arctic phasing while diving SE at break-neck speeds...won't be resolved until late week.

Super mega deathtron frost with freezing fog this am

Just looking at yesterday’s Euro weeklies which have been the source of much gnashing of teeth and have the worst possible of all the outcomes. Warms up Christmas and is back to this current colder pattern by mid Jan. Wash, rinse, repeat. Actually, temps return to seasonal abruptly during the second week of Jan. Seasonal during that time frame will get the job done.

6Z euro looks good for Baltimore

29/23, hoping that light precip just to my west makes it in here as frozen. 50s on Christmas Eve and a cold rain on Christmas Day, a true holiday of yore being projected at this point.

Yep the annual Xmas week torch. You can set a clock to it.

Fields looking about cooked but we will see what daylight brings. Biggest tragedy, these 24-hour cheap shots. Mama Said https://youtu.be/yMGWQKn9Ers?si=de4RPur-3z1MyG5f