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In 9 pages. I have not seen, “the big ones are sniffed out early” yet, so I’m catching us up here

We can always add to the totals as we get closer.

Yea....I expected a non-reversal warming early in the season, and then another reflection event in mid January, followed up a major SSW complete with reversal in February.

If we can keep the western ridge, it should keep the SE ridge in check enough to give us a chance at a good storm track near the coast. There should be cold air to the north to pull down. But if we lose that ridge we risk it turning into a SWFE buzz kill because the SE ridge will respond and overwhelm it.

perfect saturday mood setter to kick off the season

If that happens it’s Kevin ftw. Not here.

I thought the Wednesday deal was a SWFE if it happens? Thought that was what this pattern was likely to produce, if it did produce?

Gfs seems to be locked in. Obviously has pattern progression nailed. I’m alerting the Facebook universe with ai generated images of milk, bread, and toilet paper.

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

The euro at 6Z/144 is much colder at 850 than 00z

If the 0z and 6z runs of the GFS are even remotely accurate to what will happen, it will be an epic run up to Christmas this year! At least we have things to track so quick out of the gate this year! .

You are expecting the flip to happen mid-late January still?

Miller A rse

0.30” here

That is the progression I expect in January.

Start stocking up on groceries now:

i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z

No, I wasn't one who thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year. Heck, I didn't even lose faith after the Giants game earlier this year. I'd much rather have the losses to Bucs last year and the Giants game earlier this year. At least I can understand that we didn't have it that day. Crap like that happens sometimes. But after this loss to the Cowboys, I've completely lost faith in this team. (The last time I lost total faith in the Eagles was the loss to the Seahawks on that Monday Night in 2023, and I couldn't have been more correct.) You can't lose a game up 21-0, especially when you have a running back as great as Saquon Barkley. The Eagles never blew a 21-0 lead before, not even during the great collapse of 2023. I thought holding onto a 21-0 lead was not asking too much, but if they can't do that, then I need to lower my expectations for this team. The Eagles might beat the Raiders and split with the Commanders to get to 10 wins (and that may still be enough to win the NFC East), but this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs. In short, this Eagles team is soft and undisciplined. Don't expect that to magically change on Friday. The Bears are a tougher team, and will beat us.

Where did you pull those graphics from?

Stunning lenticular cloud yesterday.

Really good recent paper here when considering this stratosphere wave reflection event. I feel like this influence is taking control of things for a bit. And models are trying to resolve this influence. As it does fit in with what we're seeing, and what models are doing. Which, if it is, then begs the question. What takes over once the life cycle runs its course? And when? Since the end dates apparently vary (but are typically ~2 weeks) and aren't very well understood. It's interesting. Probably a future case study. Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/521/2025/

Absolutely this.

This early rain is more of an option. But if it flipped and coated that’s a win.

I suspect this split forcing is the reason for the volatility that we have been seeing in the models for the first 10 days of December. Models struggle with the placement of features when there are multiple areas of forcing. My only guess that I made earlier for December is that we will have a weaker -PNA and colder Canada than last year.

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.