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Just like that we went from an 80% chance of rain to 40% on point click.

The AFD from RAH reads like “Rain will split the area today with very light amounts. Maybe an isolated storm this evening. Saturday has trended further south with the low. Amounts have decreased as well”. Going to see an expansion of the extreme drought in this area, despite the pattern change. Does look like Georgia and South Carolina see repeated beneficial rains but NC has dried out a lot on modeling

Convective initiation could begin in N-CTX early this morning along the sagging cold front (southeast of Abilene) with the first incoming shortwave out west. Even that initial batch alone this morning could get severe with weakening MLCIN projected. I can already see light radar returns over Midland area, moving east as of typing this. Appears to be virga (west of the dryline), and reporting cloudy skies.

Despite SPC still not forecasting much severe risk in the state today, the threat (esp. large hail) is by *no means over in the state. Euro, GFS, and HRRR are all latching now onto stronger mid-level (H5 & H7) energy trailing further south through the state today. Instead of all the unrealistically forecasted ridging over the southern half the past days. Continued moderate DL shear around 50 - 60 knots, and still steep ML lapse rates of at least 7 - 8, in C & STX. But looks to remain closer to 8. Very large hail is definitely still a distinct possibility. And even a giant hail stone (5 in.) might not be out of the question later today over the Edwards Plateau region (west of San Antonio), with strong sfc heating likely getting into the 90s and possibly near 100 F. Especially with the dryline out there that could get intersected by the cold front. Such near extreme daytime instability (which is typical this time of year out there) could cause some initially explosive HP supercell development as some of the CAMs are indeed showing near Del Rio later today.

Well ....it's about time!!!! Haven't seen rain like this in at least 6mos. Currently at 1.1 inches so far since yesterday. Looks like a decent amount still heading this way!

You were saying... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

WB 6Z HRRR and NBM

Local farmers here have lost their apple and peach tree blossoms for the first time in memory

Lol, I’ll do as i please. Thanks for the advice though, it’s really appreciated.

Says the most whiny, annoying person on the board .

Very nice. Gonna be some awesome scenic snow capped mountain views at Banff Springs golf course deep into the warm season.

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)?

wait until you see the prices of local wines this fall- then you will wonder why the media has not said jack. This guy below is the expert and I spoke to him this morning as I just approved his new sign for his recent expansion of his winery as the Lowhill Township manager/zoning officer. I trust him over anyone in this country. He told me he lost 80-90% of his grape production. He is an expert meterologist too. https://www.weathertrends360.com/Company https://www.weatheredvineyards.com/

The Canadian Rockies had a great winter this year. Base at the top of Sunshine Village and Lake Louise near Banff, AB is about 100" and 90" respectively. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

yeah we are not playing this well lol.

I wasn't alive for the storm but reading the Wikipedia article and apparently the tornado warning was issued with only a 5 minute warning time for the city itself. Just crazy to think about and how far we've managed to come since then. Shows the value that the NWS and research provides us and what happens when they are neglected or undeveloped. Also sort of neat that it added to the conversation to change to the EF instead of the regular F scale.

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA +1.4 +1 +0.7 +0.8 +2 +1.7 +1.7 +2.2 +2.5

I would love .45 fingers crossed

May(or May not) DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0

This is the first I heard about it. Thanks for sharing this update.

Newark EWR changed their snowfall from 27.2 to 23.9" for some reason. Not sure if this was mentioned, but i just discovered it. @donsutherland1

WB OZ NBM

WB 0Z HRRR continues to show the North and Western areas getting the higher amounts.

I think we can toss that, but there was probably some 10% RH with dews a little below 0F in there somewhere.