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You do realize that cooler can mean a lot of tstms and SVR!
- Today
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Split the upright here. Storms to my N, S, E, w. Just a shower here. 0.06. Did see some nice lightning though
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Are those natural to your neighborhood or did you plant those?
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Good that you noted the satellite presentation. One thing that *really* stands out to me and is atypical for a svr wx day here -- the storms had zero anvil-level flow. No glaciated anvils spread out anywhere upwind or downwind of the updrafts! It's just a series of "updraft puffs," so to speak! So upper-level winds were lacking as well. No "venting" of the updrafts, not good for sustained storms. This perhaps explains a lot why w/ such high CAPE the storms failed to realize their full potential! I attached a VIS GIF loop from 2130z to 2330z. Also, you can clearly see how outflow dominated the storms were almost from the start. And look at the high clouds over the Delmarva. Moving S? The ridge axis at 250 mb at 00z extended from about BGM to CAE. You don't want ridging aloft directly over the area of interest for svr wx! This also explained why the storms had no spreading anvils. So yet another item to throw in that messed things up! Yet many wind reports, so it wasn't a bust in terms of the slight risk, just some details were off, like lacking a lot LTG and more outflow dominant that you would expect. Actually, a pretty fascinating case looking at the details, and why things did what they did. It's important to look at why things fail in expectations, not just why things exceed expectations in fcsts!
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This is from Kouts
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Pretty potent storm down in Brick right now. Lots of lightning and strong winds on my security cams.
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So far, they seem sparser than in previous Junes here; hopefully, just not out in force yet.
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Prolific lighting over northern Nassau right now. Totally worth standing outside and watching .
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LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm
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Yes, the little details count when it comes to svr wx events. *One* thing off, and it can be the difference between several tors or none, or several intense, long-tracked tors or a bunch of weak, short-lived ones. For instance, sfc dew points are a few degrees lower than fcst. This raises the LFC, and lessens 0-3 km CAPE, which are key for tors. How many times does it look good "on paper" for big svr wx, and it fails. SCP and SIGTOR are high, and it's a major disappointment and under-performs. SCP and SIGTOR can't account for everything going on, they account for just some. They can't be treated in a vacuum! Of course, the door can swing the other way. How about June 5, 2024? That was a surprise! Yes, SPC had 2% tor risk, but it did not stand out as "big" for tor event in this area. It was not synopitcally-evident. And we got what, 13 tors? And they were not all just brief spin ups!
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.37” from earlier storms. Central Suffolk
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Sw Nassau just got rocked by a pulse cell. Small hail and extremly heavy rain, very brief 50+ mph gusts. Literally appeared on radar after passing jfk. That was an amazing surprise .
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Thanks. 0-6 km shear was only 15 kt at IAD, well below the threshold for marginal supercells (30-35 kt), so storm lacked mid-level mesos. All you need is a half-decent meso at mid-levels, and that makes storms *so* much "better." Even if no severe wx, the LTG and rainfall ramps up! 0-8 km shear was even weaker at 14 kt. And look at hodograph, it is a chaotic mess! Tons of CAPE only takes you so far. If the shear is lousy, it's hard to sustain discrete, long-lived cells. I'd take 1500 CAPE and 0-6 kt shear 40-45 kt anytime over 3500 CAPE and 0-6 shear 15-20 kt! The presence of good wind shear also prevents storms from gusting out too easily. The updraft and downdraft couplets in the storms are separated better in a higher-sheared environment. I realize some already know this, but this is a very important point when it comes to mesocyclones. The presence of mesocyclone just at mid-levels (low-levels can be nothing) greatly enhances the potential updraft strength of a tstm. It can double the updraft strength from buoyancy (CAPE) alone though dynamic pressure perturbations, so that's why supercells have such intense updrafts. 1500-2000 CAPE may not sound like much, but if the shear is ideal, holy cow. For instance, the April 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak in the OH Valley, CAPE was 1500-2000, and the 0-6 kt shear was about as high as I have ever seen it for an outbreak. It was 100-110 kt! That's crazy, and you had a lot of intense, long-tracked tors.
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The broken line died just to the west of me, but had a nice outflow with some wind to dry things up a bit more.
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Storm weakened on approach then strengthened when past so just 0.09" with a 30mph gust.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
AlexD1990 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Never got a thing over here, after being blasted last night with a one off. -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
jewell2188 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
How is tomorrow looking? More of a trigger versus today? -
You're usually pretty accurate with these. I'm in your red dashed area.
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Nice little cell developed over us. Dumping rain right now. Incredible light show outside. Tons of thunder.
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Rainoved into my area finally. Had what sounds like very small hail hitting window ac unit.
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A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early.
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Squall line came through about 2100L for 0.15" Hi today 90f, very humid DP reached 80.
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That's right on top of @IWXwx
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0.35" from that storm. Not bad. Obviously doesn't put a dent in the drought, but enough to give the vegetable garden a much-needed watering. For a change I won't have to water tomorrow.
