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Make no mistake about it. El Nino is ramping up. Right now, Midwest is getting soaked. Next week, at a time when the subtropical ridge should be established over south central Texas, yet ANOTHER storm cycle will be dumping even more torrential rains down on our communities. It will get worse. This is going to evolve into a super strength El Nino. They will not be calling the summer of '26 the Summer of 2026. They will be calling it the HARD RAIN of 2026. Autumn will be worse. Chillier than normal, with rain upon rain upon rain upon rain. Get used to lots of flood watches and warnings. Put your homes up on stilts. Better yet - Build an ARK. You're gonna need it!

Middle of next week has potential.

.14 rain today

The PDO has been negative for years and we have still managed to snow. Most of those years have been Ninas(correlates to -PDO) so we shall see how it goes with a strong Nino. I would expect it to trend positive as we head into Fall.

Maxed out at 90.1 today at CEF. Have a shot at a 5 day heatwave unless clouds move in during the late morning / early afternoon to spoil things.

0.52" mostly from aftrn t-storm. Quite humid (72)

First night for me also, It’s a soupy night.

SA is very talented, but young. They aren't going anywhere. If the Knicks blow this their window to win a championship is probably closed. Now or never.

DVN gusted to 69mph earlier, MLI hit 55mph. The Kirksville area of northern/northeast MO is really getting trained this evening. Gonna be some huge totals overnight if that remains stalled out east/west through that area.

lol Knicks

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening. The caveat is it’s Michigan. The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence. It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer. Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep. But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

Another severe wx pattern setting up, ahead of a strong trough

It only takes 1 storm to make a winter for the big cities and lake effect country. The rest of the area is screwed this upcoming winter. 15/16 was my lowest snowfall total year since I've been measuring here in Hamburg for the last 13. Right around 80"

A/C is on tonight. 70/70 with fog and mist. Feels tropical out there.

0.43" Not bad. Need a lot more.

0.15” on the day

Yeah not surprised by the zero rain today.

I watered my vegetable garden this afternoon because I figured the northern part of the line would fall apart. No luck today as expected, but hopefully better luck tomorrow or Friday.

Was he really warm last winter? Any seasonal forecaster will bust badly from time to time if they are being honest. I've honed my El Niño intensity composites today and will give the EMI ones a quick check before my next update later this month.

So much for the extended heatwave, but nice to have less humidity for a while.

Stein of a month so far. Only about .10

Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.

Today was one the first days where it felt downright hot, looks like one more hot day and possible severe tomorrow evening before another cool down.

Yeah it doesn't look too bad.

True, but hopefully things start to change as we exit August. We have seen rapid improvements in as little as 90 days during previous Fall seasons leading into Winter.