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I love that. I need a hammock, I have so many nice trees in my backyard. But it needs to be strong, Im 6'5" and a big guy lol.

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week. Pretty amazing honestly. We almost made it with Edouard. A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it. It was very close but no cigar.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Weathernerds has it for tropical https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html

I think you both were

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite. I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

EPS AI looks devastating

Excuse you… poor decisions get you elected in today’s world.

Also, is today the torch?

Certainly hope so so I don’t have to turn on the heat.

Thank goodness for the Appalachians moderating the air mass. For once

It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output.

Raleigh and Seattle have today's nicest weather in the Nation

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

How about cool and wetish/rainy for next week?

DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

Sounds like you're sufferin'...yeah, I was surprised earlier by what was only a brief light shower up here.

The planetary wave dispersion (terminating warm advection as it washes out into higher latitudes...) I suspect is going to deliver positive flux over the grander time scale of the whole season. This positive anomaly/amount, because of the a super-position of the whopper +ENSO over top CC. ..sneaky hinted of that: the negative anomalies over the western Pacific oceanic basin are not creating a 0 when subtracting those anomalies from the positives associate with the El Nino. This means there is a surplus of thermodynamic sourcing in the Pacific/atmosphere holistic coupling. It's not hurting that the Atlantic "El Nino" is likely ongoing - currently the MDR is in 3rd historically... But all that is servicing blocking. Post cyclone deaths at 65 N/Ferrel latitudes ... positive heights nodes may materialize and decay, probably along shorter life spans than the "real" intraseasonal blocking events. Blocking can materialize from a different geophysical pathways. But as stronger cyclones curl into their death from mid --> higher latitudes, that warmth/latent transport gets dump into the mid and higher altitudes, and that flux - endemic to this year - may present a positive anomaly response into those regions. hat would transiently look like blocking but won't last long enough for the teleconnector correlation to realize. Probably a great year for NAO migraine modeling ...think 'popping off' while in wait of real wave# related variants. If the latter never takes place, I could see this as being faux applied for 'taking credit' for outlooks related to blocking. "right for the wrong reason". 'Sides, I may have this backward at the moment but isn't +AO correlated with the descending solar after a spring--> summer bombardment by active disk? Supposition/conjecture: It would be harder - also - to parse out how much is because of CC/ENSO superposition, vs how much is truly evolved out of the "winter time rendition of the inter -annual circumglobal teleconnector" - it's a summer correlation but I think that's bullshit. It applies, though modulated in why some years have more Asian blocking vs NE Pac vs Greenland ...etc, or not at all... And it has a strong correlation - I believe - with the AAM tendencies.

“Mostly sunny”. Ill just pretend its not effin pouring on me in suffern right now.

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.