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We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not.

The SKY!! I can see the blue sky, and smoke has thinned

We improved to 248 (purple). I’m hoping the maroon from this morning is over with.

Definitely gross out there but I remember 2023 being worse.

The June 2012 derecho would hit the spot rn.

A true frog strangler is growing over me currently. No real movement. Just expanding in size.

Gfs with a death mcs Monday Riding it

Absolutely classic, strong El Niño VP and OLR standing wave convection in place in the PAC now. Fully coupled and Bjerknes feedback has become well established, making it a self-sustaining system. The MJO waves are constructively interfering as well. In your maps, you can see the subsidence around the MC and Indonesia, which is only going to increase when the +IOD gets established over the next month. It’s off to the races now with another massive WWB coming up and another DWKW barreling itself east to warm the subsurface and surface even more, I think we see anomalies reach +10C to +12C in the subsurface in the coming weeks This is a textbook east-based event:

Pulled a hog from the smoke this am

Yup

Plot Twist: the edges of the smoke plumes can act as differential heating boundaries for storms, and the increased particular can act as nucleation for lightning. We saw that in PA/WI/NJ the past few days. Satellite loop for visual:

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.

I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica.

Should be. Overall best severe threat will be off to the west but should still see some localized wind threat across the region during the evening.

Wouldn’t it be fitting for smoke to put a damper on our severe potential!? We can find every way to fail here whether it’s snow or thunderstorms

5% tor probs tomorrow.... actually a pretty interesting severe set up if we can avoid crapvection.

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

AQI at 371 and visibility at 1 1/4SM as of Noon. May very well be dealing with smoke and low visibilities the entire day today, especially with storms coming later that day. Certainly some June 2023 vibes going on.

Code Purple Rain to wash the smoke away.

Cool site to track metar visibility. https://cyclonicwx.com/models/metar/neus/vis/

Heavily depends on the fit. If you have any kind of beard or even stubble the efficiency goes way, way down for pm 2.5. Unfortunately learned that half way through a diy brick repointing project

Spreading the word from our friends over at MDE.

The "worst" of summer was partially in April! We had all of those highs in the mid and upper 80s. Since then, we have returned to VERY HIGH humidities to accompany relatively normal summer temps. When I go running in the mornings, it is like someone dumped a bucket of water over me by the time I am done. Still working on my winter ideas. This winter is a lean warm, but truly a crap shoot. I tend to think we start slow w/ kind of a meh December with gradually increasing chances. Late Jan to mid Feb seems like the sweet spot regardless of ENSO. I see no real change to that this winter. Somebody from the Plateau eastward could get hammered by an Apps runner or coastal this winter. As for fall, that season just seems hot lately. I do think Nino should temper the excessive heat and maybe bring normal fall temps by late September. Sometimes Nino winters kind of have a false start during October. The heat out West seems to suggest the Nino pattern has begun. Might be a good year for NE ski resorts?

Smoke definitely waning a bit. I can see two blocks over now!

yeah DC is back in the Red