All Activity

79 the high here, now 66

Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1. Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo 1-7: 4.5 (.3) 8-14: 11.3 (.7) 15-21: 20.4 (1.3) 22-28: 22.4 (1.6) So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60. To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24: Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1. Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo 1-7: 4.5 (.3) 8-14: 11.3 (.7) 15-21: 20.4 (1.3) 22-28: 22.4 (1.6) So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60. To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24: Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

Downright chilly outside right now. It was kind of a shock given it is still August. I am gonna have to dig a jacket out of the clock in the morning.

Highs: EWR: 83 BLM: 81 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 PHL: 80 ISP: 80 ACY: 80 LGA: 80 TTN: 79 NYC: 79 JFK: 78 * no intra hour highs (ridiculous)

Just heard a couple raindrops on my roof. But is going to just miss me mostly.

remarkably, there is one shower in the entire Mid-Atlantic this evening, and it's right over my house.

don't know if this works but it should navigate somewhere https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/25082612/index.html

Already down to 56 this evening after an absolutely gorgeous day with a high of 72. Looking like the cool Autumn like air continues into Labor Day and the first week of September. It appears that summer has come to an early end for the Mountains. The models are showing several strong early Fall cold fronts into the first several weeks of September!

I’m going to pretend it’s a cat 1 hurricane so I can trick myself into enjoying it

What's the link to that again? There's been a strong ensemble (EPS) signal for some type of low to develop off the coast this weekend. I have zero interest right now given the possibility that this just trends to some strung out mess that gets ejected OTS, but if there were a way to get some tropical or hybrid up this way (or at least rain), this could work. We meh for now.

Weirdly poison ivy has absolutely no effect on me. I can clear acres with my bare hands and not having it itch. That tree actually had none or very little. What you see is wild grape and porcelain berry.

He posts in here everyday, often about hoodies

I'm probably going to be wrong, but things look very quiet across the Atlantic and Pacific this year. The rest of the season in the Atlantic may be a complete dud.

September 9-22

speaking of KARB (and notwithstanding missing a previous discussion about this) isn't that always an abnormally cold spot because its in a valley?

Man, some of you all are just unlucky. Picked up another half inch so far today. DEN picked up 1.3"! That puts the airport at 2.8" on the month, well above normal. Looks like parts of Aurora have seen 2-2.5" today.

The GFS solution is a warm core

I dont know who that is. I have very poor heat tolerance though. May-October here sucks imo

Fall just rolled in over here. The clouds look like a late September early October sky.

Shut out again, despite heavy rains all of 3 miles from me

Had a high of 72 with a current temp already at 59 degrees. Going to be a COLD August night.

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF TS FREQ: ACE: @GaWxGTFIH

Its nice to see 2 models on board but yeah a week is forever