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  2. frontranger8
    Yeah, strong Ninos almost always deliver at least one 12"+ storm here. Most commonly late Oct-mid Dec and then Mar/Apr.
  3. GaWx
    This is likely at least partially tied to the hot biased GFS not being as hot as it was (never was believable in the first place due to bias). But still the Carolinas and Virginia are facing a dangerous heatwave and potential records.
  4. EastCoast NPZ
    It's funny how the heat never wanes as we get close to the event like the precip totals do.
  5. Rjay
    Which sucks bc it kills the old storm threads. This site is frustrating af.
  6. EastCoast NPZ
    I'd be happy if we could get even a single impactful rain storm out if it.
  7. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.
  8. Typhoon Tip
    87/66 Kind of a threshold combo. Just starting to feel it.
  9. Picard
    I think there is a chance of that, especially northern NJ. There's currently a huge blob of heavy rain and storms heading southeast out of Canada. It'll be interesting to track what if anything holds together or redevelops.
  10. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah I was just going add .. I bet they're just as abysmal as any along coastal land/sea contention. But that's part of the whole "local gradient" thing. As always ... resolution resolution resolution
  11. bluewave
    This is going to be the most significant global climate event of this century so far especially coming off the earlier record global temperature jump only 3 years ago.
  12. MJO812
    Is canonical a popular word now ? I heard that all winter last year but it wasnt a normal la Nina winter.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Impressive clustering from the EPS. Nearly all of it's ensemble members have DCA at or above 100° air temp on Thursday and Friday.
  14. MJO812
    He does this every year. He loves to bash anyone who disagrees with him. Ignore him and post away.
  15. snowman19
    So you’re calling @GaWx a liar too? Moron
  16. Brian5671
    Those cloud debris issues/MCS etc may tamper the heat in spots if they develop-you almost need sunup to late day full sun to breach 100
  17. Brewbeer
    if only all those people didn't install solar panels, we'd might get some brown-outs
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Welp...sounds like a snowless torch and at least 1 nina the year after to me. Not sure that'll make any of us happy. And before anybody weenies me...refute why that setup is any good for snow. The super niño is locked in at this point, so that, at least, it IS happening. Only question appears to be how East-based...and this poster seems to believe that's the most likely. East based=torch, right?
  19. Brian5671
    Fireworks should be ok to go given the evening start and difficult with rescheduling especially since it's a hot stretch not just one day...although T-storms could prevent them in spots. Never fun making that call. One time here they postponed it never rained, then rained on the reschedule date lol
  20. Damage In Tolland
    Damnit
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Backlash nina period won't be good for some of us either so...emotional capital for the year (or two) after? Lol
  22. MegaMike
    Oh, absolutely! Knowing potential error in forecasting is useful. It can help determine an edge Agreed. Models struggle along tight gradients. That's universal regardless of boundary type (dry-moist, warm-cold, land-water, etc...) ... Advantage will always go to the finer resolution modeling system.
  23. frd
    Blah.......ring of nothing
  24. NEG NAO
    Many towns holding large outdoor events will error on the side of caution Friday and Saturday because of the extreme heat warnings and at least a 50% chance of T-storms and reschedule - those 2 combined are dangerous even for younger people. Unfortunately I am sure emergency rooms will be packed with heat related illnesses. starting already Mercer County, NJ Outdoor Events Postponed Due to Heat Wave
  25. MarcmmKU
    What part is wrong? December 1997 and 2004 were indeed +QBO, + ENSO, and below normal. 2018 near normal. Refute the claim. These are numbers not opinions. You can be warm biased without literally lying like you currently are.
  26. snowman19
    NOAA has raised the scale again:
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