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Just pointing out that this setup with post-storm temperatures <10° is very much a possibility with the HP anchored to the north. This is a prolonged cold spell incoming, regardless of snowfall. Snow will only exacerbate the cold potential due to refrigeration effects. If you are in a home that takes oil or fire wood, I would start preparing to have a delivery or go restock the firewood, pellet stoves for the incoming stretch of cold. It could last a while.

Randy and Mappy: as I have done before, I will donate $100 to the board if it snows enough to shut down Metro above ground. Do you accept my offer? (+8”)

That was a disgusting run.

Eps is also further north

Overnight lows in the single digits here at KLIN, with daily highs for the weekend in the low to mid teens. Seems the big storm that I have been hearing about misses this area completely.

Haha, well, two minds with but a single thought! I'm also a bit skeptical still about the AI models, maybe because it's such a potentially huge event. But they have proven their worth in the past year or so and (as other mets have said) they do offer solid guidance for the "overall" pattern look, precip shield, that sort of thing. Maybe not specifics like banding or small-scale features, but those are ironed out with mesoscale models. I do like that the AIs have been hammering this consistently.

Lol amazing. The Great Snow of 1717! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Snow_of_1717

I did laugh!

Correct. Especially in the wedge. This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec

ok amwx family. i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Man if this thing doesn't verify, it could be the biggest cliff dive of this decade lol.

Ended up with about 6" at home. Have to admit, it looks nice

This could be my famous last words but I just dont see how we miss this one. Its either a huge snow, snow then sleet and ice, or sleet and ice of epic proportions. Its still 5 days out but the windows are narrowing

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

For laughs, here's the 336 hr forecast for the 12z Euro AI.

We’re all about to exercise some demons or get a punch to the gut.

It came it much later... but still shows a 24 hour event. Give or take.

Sorry. Too hype. I will respect the rules and keep memes to a minimum. Been waiting for the right moment to use that one and may have been too soon.

So I have 17 inches on the Euro and 10 on the GFS,cooking.

I think we see heavier than 10:1 rates too. .

This one is so much more professional than mine. But not by much. I am starting to feel a little better, although for some reason I'm still weary of the AIs

cad life

What’s that bright thing in the sky I’ve seen for more than 15 minutes today?

Shades of pre Jan 2016