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Well, there’s no doubt I’ve let my opinions out on this pattern. However, after the warm-up next week, I think there is a legit shot of some overrunning before Christmas. I was just looking a little bit more at the ensemble and you can definitely get a sense based on the members and six hour QPF that there’s some semblance of moisture trying to run into some of the cold area that we’ll have in place or at least trying to leak down from Canada. It could easily cut, however I think if there’s any shot it’s probably like the 21st to the 24th or something like that.

I will be shocked if DC doesn’t do well, pattern always favored DC area for this one

This is broad-brushing on your part since we are discussing a particular subset of Decembers that are based on La Niña which has been more recently defined by RONI as the global oceans have rapidly been warming. La Nina’s historically have been defined by an early start to winter relative to El Niños. This is why you see frequent references to frontloaded and backloaded winters So it makes it easier for us to use a December as a marker for the rest of the season due to the nature of La Ninas.

What is wild, I normally don't look to the MJO as much of a driver in December. The PDO is really what we need to help us. If that can come up for some air, then the MJO takes a back seat.

I would be pretty excited if I lived between the Mason Dixon line and I-70. Im thinking 2-4 for the city north. Don't get me wrong, it should be fun, cold powder is my favorite. Sunday may also feature some robust lake bands (looks like maybe a lake Huron connection) so that might add a lottery jackpot and add to the wintry feel of the day.

This event is going to be driven by what happens in the upper levels, not so much where the weak low forms and tracks. Our region gets underneath the right rear entrance region of a strong jet streak for a time- this area is favorable for strong lift, and is why the heavier stripe of precip essentially forms in place. Question is exactly where that feature will be located, which varies slightly among the guidance and run to run. It will be a small scale event, so relatively few will be happy with the result.

Even way down in Garner

Ok, but none of that answered why 100 miles south of here its fully plausible for a fast pattern to produce 2-4” of snow but here in the nyc metro area we shouldnt expect that. Comparing differences in model runs is one thing, claiming that we shouldnt expect an outcome because of a certain background state while ignoring that the model being spoken about simply shifted that axis of snow south, is a completely different argument. If it can be proven scientifically that a fast progressive flow can produce advisory level snows south of here but not here, then lets get that going. Id love to learn.

Well in this flow I’ll take an inch to set the mood.

I wish that I could actually help by answering your question though...what CTP is saying is "late evening" arrival?

The fact it hasn’t given me 2-4” on a run yet is a bad sign.

Ya, kinda wish I was going this weekend. My tickets are for 12/20..so expecting bare ground by then.

It is snowing outside here in Hickory! Completely unexpected.

I’d be embarrassed to have my head as far up my ass as you do.

It was a bit better than I thought, but overall I think it's time to temper expectations a bit.

Gonna look pretty cool at the heritage museum lights. Hope you get at least a couple.

Seriously who or what do we need to sacrifice tomorrow to make it snow?

Hard to take the nam seriously even close to an event. It has failed so many times. But this is a progressive pattern so 1-3 is a good call.

Nothing impressive. 1-3" is my call. The storm seemed to lose that vort hang back, jog north that was being advertised on the 12/10 18z Euro. That would've made it interesting. Also, definitely not buying the 6z Euro's .5 liquid..which would be 4-6"

Well where ever the first bands sets up... looks to be where it stays.

That's awesome I hope all is well

Graupel Alert

3K NAM also moved SE, with 1-2" for the area now.

She probably saw some rogue CFS frame from 400 hrs out, posted by a FB page with a name like “SEVERE APOCALYPTIC SNOW WEATHER CENTER. NET.” She’ll call all Mets liars for it not verifying.

Yeah, had the same Pattern came later that we've been in it's possible if not probable we'd gotten Snow from the cold rain and mix one's we got. I remember doing same as you. When the cold dropped down from North Dakota and Minnesota. Fun times watching Margie Isom . Use to Snow would hit Memphis then Chatt and spread up the Valley. The whole Valley would get in on many of the Snow storm's. Miller A's were more prevalent.