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Overnight - The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. the other major guidance has trended north and more amped. There’s been an improved consensus. I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important.

My man, we don’t need weather app screenshots. Put them in banter if you really need to.

The Euro is doing exactly what we wanted it to with my breakdown yesterday. It’s managing to get help with the NS and have a legit HECS on the table.

Imagine if this had happened 40 years ago, before the Hadley Cell swallowed the world....that 30" in VA would be in GA!!!

My son just texted that Apple weather says 2 feet this weekend

Hopefully history doesn't repeat. Would like to know the difference e.g. cold, HP placement and strength.

Toss AI GFS because I don’t like the outcome.

2010 is not walking through that door. wagons north (somewhat).

You want the GFS and its products showing a miss south at this stage.

Yes, lots of them. Most seem to be very good for us, if we are okay with any type of wintry weather. By the way, I really like the change to the "Key Message" format of the NWS GSP AFDs, rather than the short-term, mid-term, and long-term format of prior years.

Some place, not sure where, is gonna get absolutely smoked by this thing down south. Could be arkansas, could be south carolina.

so the slower it goes, the more amplified it gets and trends further north.

No phase to slow things down and amplify so it slips east.

15.3 Tuesday low imby/Columbia.

Dear boss, Eat me Signed, the same boss I'm retired. My productivity can be shit and I still get paid.

I was going back and reading articles from Last February storm. The storm was to take place on Feb 20th. We peaked with fun on Friday the 14th. Most models had 1-2 feet of snow. The AI was never really on board. On the 15th...there was a very slow bleed south and east but we didnt think much of it till the 00z runs that night. the 16th was a disaster. We were down to a 6-10 inch storm if everything went well. The 17th....it got worse and worse but the actual rug pull started on the 15th. 5 days before the event

I dunno, if we got the (surely overdone?) 2+ inches of ice on some of these models, I think I'd rather take the cold rain, especially if it misses us and ices out my employer further north...

Yeah, I know there are lots of caveats with ice maps. But holy smokes.

For sure. My gut is 8-12" in the triad, but higher impact with 1-2" of that being sleet.

Hopefully the freezing rain will end up as more snow or sleet.

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years. El Nino 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-87/1987-88 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24 La Nina 1955-56 1973-74 1975-76 1988-89 1998-99 1999-2000 2007-08 2010-11 Which of these years did the PNA not hold?

I said this yesterday before this thread was started. If the euro phase does happen then suppression is gone and it will be more adjusting north over time. That opens the door to warm noses punching in. The mix line already shifted north bigly. So now the places that looked solidly all snow for the duration will get pingers which always gets up to DC. North crew is greedy and will be happy while DC south sleet. Warm layers always go in more than modeled.

Sorry to hear Scottie!! Everything will work out!

i feel like an addict needing my next hit of a model run

Yup, I was thinking that too. He’ll either be buried in snow, or locked in with ice…so it’ll be bad either way.