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Pretty wicked non-severe cracks and strobing.

OBX keep an eye on this one. These wobbles might put them in play if she turns too wide

That’s what she said

Observing radar the past 12 hours has been fascinating. Erin's small inner eyewall refuses to die. Its ring will weaken for a time, then come back with intense DBZ echoes. Yet, the outer concentric band remains but doesn't appear to be intensifying enough to allow the inner eyewall to finally choke off and collapse. So Erin appears to be in a long-duration replacement cycle. Some mentioning of shear might be the culprit. However, I don't agree with that assessment because these are relatively low values that shouldn't be enough to disrupt the process. We've seen these cycles complete with even moderate shear. I suspect the concentric band is just taking a long time to reach an intensity that would create enough subsidence to do the deed. These processes remain highly unpredictable, statistically, and quite chaotic, so it's really difficult to forecast how an EWRC will unfold with regard to time. Eventually, the outer band should strengthen enough to finish the cycle. But for now, it seems Erin is in a steady state, and the earlier abrupt rise in pressure has stabilized. Erin's RMI should continue to expand, and the hurricane should become quite large. Eventually, we should get a larger eye, and it may clear out. Though I don't think Erin will be able to reintensify enough to regain its peak intensity from Saturday. Especially considering that southwesterly shear should increase by Monday enough to keep it in check. It should still remain a Category 3 or 4 as it increases in size, however.

Had hail damage in may and got wind damage today. Tore off a couple panels of my siding, although admittedly they were probably weakened already and this was just the final straw. Wasn’t home when it happened so can’t give any estimated wind speeds. Glad I’m a renter this year but still a pain in the butt. Definitely was not expecting that today especially since we were never warmed for anything. Been a fantastic light show over the lake tonight.

The ACE connection is somewhat positive but very noisy for Central Park.

0Z UKMET vs 12Z:-AOI forms 30 hours later and then is barely N of the N Leewards (~300 miles to the SW of prior run at same time). -Although Erin still recurves at 74W at same time as prior run had it, it after 120 hours exits much faster to the ENE. At hour 156, it’s already to 54W vs only to 65W on the prior run. So, then Erin on the 0Z is ~1,600 miles NE of the AOI vs ~1,000 miles NNW of the AOI on the 12Z at 168. -Regardless, the AOI is moving NNW at 168 suggesting it’s likely recurving well E of the SE US:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.6N 61.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 22.08.2025 132 18.6N 61.9W 1008 300000UTC 23.08.2025 144 19.3N 63.8W 1007 291200UTC 23.08.2025 156 20.1N 65.9W 1006 360000UTC 24.08.2025 168 22.3N 67.1W 1005 42

Too many Anthony's in my family Antonio It's part of my last name

sharp wobble southwest.

Not even mocking the weenies who keep hanging on to the tiniest little piece of “positive” change? That always seems fun.

Great thing about being in radar range is you can track the wobbles

Due to curiosity about whether or not there likely is a connection between ACE and/or # of CONUS H hits with NE snowfall the following winter, I decided to research NE US AN winters and crunch the #s. I chose a central point with a very long history, NYC. I chose 35” as the breakpoint for AN: Hurr. seasons preceding NYC AN snow (35”+): 44 of last 156 seasons (top 28%): -AN ACE*, AN H hits (2+)**: 2020/17/05/04/03/1995/66/33/16/15/06/1898/96/93/87/80/78 -BN ACE/BN H hits (0 or 1): 2014/13/09/02/1993/77/22/19/1874 -NN ACE/AN H hits: 1960/59/48/47/38/1882/76 -NN ACE/BN H hits: 2000/57/1895/83/72 -AN ACE/BN H hits: 2010/1963/1892 -BN ACE/AN H hits: 1940/13/04 Summary of 44 H seasons preceding AN NYC snow: ACE/# of H hits: 1. AN/AN: 39% (17 seasons) preceding AN snow vs 26% of all H seasons being AN/AN 2. BN/BN: 20% (9) vs 28% 3. NN/AN 16% (7) vs 15% 4. NN/BN 11% (5) vs 13% 5. AN/BN 7% (3) vs 6% 6. BN/AN 7% (3) vs 11% ————— -AN ACE: 45% (20) vs 33% -NN ACE: 27% (12) vs 28% -BN ACE: 27% (12) vs 39% —————— -AN H hits: 61% (27) vs 52% -BN H hits: 39% (17) vs 48% ————— Conclusions -There appears to be a weak but noticeable correlation between ACE and the chance for >35” NYC snow -There appears to be a very weak but noticeable correlation between # of US H hits and the chance for >35” NYC snow -Combining these two factors, a season with both AN ACE and AN H hits, appears to give the strongest chance for >35” NYC snow with it possibly being as much as twice as high as the chance for >35” after BN ACE/BN H hits —————— *ACE norms adjusted for avg ACE of each era **Avg US H hits 1.8 1851-2024 Sources: -NYC snowfall: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx -ATL ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy -# of CONUS H hits: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html @PhiEaglesfan712@snowman19@donsutherland1@BlizzardWx

Plenty of rain in Marysville again today. .86 of rain from that Perry County special storm this afternoon. Got another mow in today & the weeds are never ending.

Man I do wish my block island vacation was a few weeks earlier, the surf should be awesome next week. Hurricane Lee brought some good waves a few years back but I imagine these will be more significant.

Really? It's just clouds

There will be nothing fun from this

Sounds like beer

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS hudsonvalley21 __________ 34 _ 48 _ 52 __ 134 __ 84 _ 26 _ 80 __ 190 _ 324 __ 86 _ 44 _ 90 __ 220 ____ 544 wxallannj ________________ 34 _ 52 _ 50 __ 136 __ 96 _ 46 _ 70 __ 212 _ 348 __ 84 _ 76 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 588 RJay _____________________40 _ 56 _ 56 __ 152 __ 96 _ 50 _ 90 __ 236 _ 388 __100 _60 _ 90 __ 250 ____ 638 Roger Smith _____________ 40 _ 60 _ 54 __ 154__100 _ 20 _ 54 __ 174 _ 328 __ 74 _ 76 _ 66 __ 216 ____ 544 Yoda _____________________42 _ 68 _ 72 __ 182 __ 74 _ 52 _ 84 __ 210 _ 392 __ 82 _ 52 _ 94 __ 228 ____ 620 wxdude64 _______________46 _ 58 _ 54 __ 158 __ 82 _ 58 _ 98 __ 238 _ 396 __ 78 _ 62 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 628 ____ Consensus _________48 _ 68 _ 70 __ 186 __ 78 _ 52 _ 88 __ 218 _ 404 __ 88 _ 58 _ 96 __ 242 ____ 646 Scotty Lightning _________ 50 _ 70 _ 80 __ 200 __80 _ 40 _ 70 __ 190 _ 390 __ 70 _ 50 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 590 so_whats_happening ____ 50 _ 74 _ 70 __ 194 __ 78 _ 58 _100 __ 236 _ 430 __ 90 _ 56 _ 98 __ 244 ____ 674 Tom ______________________58 _ 80 _ 82 __ 220 __ 64 _ 52 _ 88 __ 204 _ 424 __ 84 _ 46 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 652 DonSutherland1 __________64 _ 80 _ 78 __ 222 __ 68 _ 66 _ 94 __ 228 _ 450 __ 92 _ 62 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 690 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 66 _ 82 _ 74 __ 222 __ 68 _ 68 _ 94 __ 230 _ 452 __100 _66 _ 84 __ 250 ____ 702 ____ Normal ______________70 _ 90 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 70 _ 90 __ 220 _ 470 __ 60 _ 20 _ 70 __ 150 ____ 620 RodneyS _________________98 _ 84 _ 98 __ 280 __ 78 _100 _92 __ 270 _ 550 __ 96 _ 50 _ 92 __ 238 ____ 788 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 42 _ 50 _ 52 __ 144 __ 98 _ 02 _ 86 __ 186 _ 330 __ 60 _ 48 _ 86 __ 194 ____ 524 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL __ All currently would be wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC, ORD would be a loss for wxallannj (+2.2) and a win for Roger Smith (+2.0) but at +2.1 it's a tie, and at +1.9 or lower, not an extreme forecast. PHX would be a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH, DEN and SEA would not be extreme forecast qualifiers. ======================================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________

Two clear trends in the guidance: 1) the timing of the storm chances for most is moving up from overnight Sunday to Sunday late afternoon / early evening 2) with northeast flow and clouds, Monday may not get to 80 degrees for most. Could even end up well below 80.

SERCC's Climate Perspectives suggests Chicago would move into a tie for hottest season (through August 20) with the current forecast. Unfortunately, the last 7-10 days of the month looks cooler on the whole.

Of note looks like all the hurricane models took a big shift west as well

The Orioles went an impressive 0/14 with RISP tonight. I am genuinely impressed with that kind of futility. In other news, Ravens looked pretty good with the back ups tonight. Ran 79 plays to Dallas 49. Pretty much dominated for 98% of that contest. Come on September!

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.3°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Nhc track is to far east now