All Activity

Already mixing up top. Wet snow (white rain) and 33.5F top of the Quad. Thinking 3-6” of dense snow possible above 2,500ft. Models have a lot of upslope precip and all parameters for heavy upslope precipitation are met… near saturated from SFC to ridgeline, H85 winds 25kts< and cross barrier, vertically stacked low traveling near FVE, precip duration of 12+ hours. Temps and snow growth are pretty poor though. Big precip is a lock, snow will likely be 6-7:1 ratios overnight with heavily rimed or small needles.

With that pattern in late November into December, Local ski resorts should be able to get going the first half of December. Maybr the first week of December for places like Wisp and 7 springs and mid December for White tail and Liberty.

Autumn Blaze Maple in the backyard is poppin’…

Here are before and after SSTs to see how much Melissa cooled the ocean on and near its track: 10/24/25: 10/30/25: So, it cooled ~1C/2F around Jamaica/E Cuba (from slightly over 30C to near or slightly over 29C). But unfortunately that wasn’t nearly enough to keep Melissa from exploding. Much of the area around the Bahamas also cooled some (perhaps ~0.5C/1F) but the full cooling may have to wait til the 10/31 SST map. Also, Melissa wasn’t as strong and was moving much more quickly through the Bahamas thus likely meaning less cooling influence.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/breaking-news/article/ravens-fined-100k-by-nfl-for-violating-injury-report-policy-regarding-lamar-jacksons-week-8-status-175454372.html

Ha - He did an update today to look at the years as well

So much weather to discuss, The heating is clogging the thread...........

Branches down SC NJ

Not this year leaves are mostly gone and after tonight see ya.

The low actually bottomed out just below 980 mb up there ... pretty good.

First substantial snows in the 2500 plus zones in the mountains. 4 to 5 inches seem possible

Snow in them hills tonight?

not sure it would have happened here yesterday-the winds/rain really ramped up from 5-7pm and roads were flooded

You'd freeze at my place lol...70 ain't happening lol

Saving money is fun. I can use money saved to make more home improvements. Pellet stove might be my best investment yet. Yea the Pope is right about south side but when you live on the ne side of a hill the sun rises late and sets early and of course its been cloudy.

If there is one model to sniff out amplification at range, it is the GFS. The Euro won't see it until it late. The GFS nailed the amplification which occurred yesterday. Things look increasingly interesting after next weekend. Sure seems like models are missing on daytime highs(actual reality is colder). It could just be we are hitting our highs at midnight? The thing I really like right now is that we are not going to have erase lots of AN temps over NA. The LR sure has modeling trying to amplify a trough over the eastern half of the US by the end of November, and that trough would bring actual winter temps with it.

A few of us knew you from day 1 and it’s been over 20 years now and you are famous so drop in and say Hi to us little people!! HMP

When it gets cool/cold, If I’m uncomfortable, the heat goes on. When it gets warm/or hot in the spring, If I’m warm, the air goes on. It’s that simple. No set times of year for anything like that. Just want to stay comfortable.

yeah, I haven’t heard one person canceling yet. I’m just glad it wasn’t yesterday.

Those rare ones seem tricky! I think you have to try the mountains for lenticular clouds... but I'd be pretty shocked if anyone gets any of those minus maybe the gravity waves.

Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here.

Halloween decorations and tombstones falling over with this wind. Hoping for the best later with my haunted i have built. Chilly!

For those worried about what they perceive as not enough cold/snow in Canada in late October...and of course the now favorite starting phrase on amwx "since 2016..." I thought this was very interesting. The chart below shows snow at Detroit the past 10 years and then the previous 10 years. The bottom line is the period of record average. The past 10 years have shown a very unusual trend of snowier than average Novembers and below average snowfall in Decembers. Even more interesting is the lower November snow the previous 10 years in what were fantastic winters.

That's massive. As a point of reference, Katrina was about 10% of GDP at the time. Unfortunately the resort industry will be severely affected, which will take time to recover.