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Cue the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF lol

I can tell you how this will play out where I am. It will be in the 20's with sleet/ZR in Buncombe County and rain with temps in the mid 40's IMBY with roaring SW winds a few hundred feet above me sounding like a 747. Having a warm nose take a way your winter storm is bad enough, but listening to it just adds to the misery lol.

Deep Mind

NAM heights are a little bit lower than 6z, and the Canadian HP is 1047 instead of 1045

NAM must run off a 1970 computer, it is so slow....

Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.

I feel like this is a cart before horse situation... Usually the CAD comes first but I wonder whether Alek might've gotten to these last two clippers or something

1" here

Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet arrives later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side.

The 2-9 inch range in Paducah seems a little vague.

It is really amazing how horrible the models are at forecasting winter storms 5 days out in 2026.

Winter better be over after next week.

12z NAM h5 48 06z NAM h5 54

I simply disagree. Weenies like it because they’re well weenies. If I had my forecaster hat on there is no way I would put that out over 3 days out. Maybe tomorrow I fine tune mesoscale jacks. Public or customers will see that and flip out. 10-18 would cover it for now.

Easier to clear every 6 hrs or so and keep a running tally until the end if its possible.

Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better.

Me too, but I get to have beer along side it. Maybe late next week before the next HECS, we can have a happy hour / after work Sapwood meetup for those interested.

Early changes on the NAM seem positive, let's see what it shows on the surface in a few frames.

Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”.

Nice, dry weekend for most per the NAM.

12z NAM h5 45

The phase looks like it will happen a bit later on this run. Both the northern and southern streams are hanging back a bit more.

My 3rd string QB had to start the game...

'Surprised to see SPC already mentioning the wintry thunder/convective potential in their current D3 outlook this morning. Which will only jump up the icing accumulation in ETX where it'd be most likely.

Great post! Can see that 50/50 is trying to work it's magic here. Any amount helps to lock things in.