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Thump is key for Lancaster and York. The models that “show” thump give us the highest potential. .

Nowcasting is not what it used to be, but in this situation it may come into play given how tight the gradient is forecast to be between a trace and 4”. We have seen models underestimate WAA, but we’ve also seen them underestimate evaporative cooling. Will be interesting to see play out and hopefully everyone gets a nice snow tomorrow.

Was supposed to reach a high of 42. Never went above 39. So appears slightly under projected temps.

I went from a borderline warning event here to possibly being skunked by warm mid-level that'll probably work up the valley, also, the WU point and click showed 6+" for almost a week now is at 5", with a WWA and a Aly forecast for possibly 3-4", which keeps getting smaller...rinse repeat last few seasons, at least it's 12/2 and we still have time to correct, maybe. Would be nice to get a phase and stall here, going to be in and out in a few hours I think. Still thinking North ORH/SNH is gonna jack here

EPS is def more aggressive than other guidance trying to get a few inches in here on Saturday. A potential bigger threat would be middle of next week around the 10th-11th....but that one is all over the place. Lets see if we can amplify that ridge a little more out west....because we have a nice -NAO and some low heights in SE Canada which bodes well for actually trying to hold a high in place.

18z ICON showing a little snow love for southern and SW VA Friday.

My backyard station confirms a wet bulb of 32. It’s gonna snow whether it accumulates or not.

38/22 currently

Congrats your wet bulb is below freezing already. I think you get an inch of snow.

Tell me more.

It's suppose to start by 3-4am and be done by 12-1. I'm not feeling the timing plays much into it here Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dew point is favorable, too

Reggie looks a little better for NE MA. Ends as a little snow at BOS.

There is a reason I let my slightly above average snowfall forecast ride even while many were jumping ship over the last 2 weeks. My gut says something is different. We will see, maybe I just ate something...

I wouldn’t hate it. If we are just going to follow the same pattern as the last several years, an early warmup would be nice

Not sure I agree with that logic.

Just to clarify, this is the WCS PDO, which is often ~~0.75-1.00 <NOAA PDO. So, this implies that the equivalent Nov 29th daily NOAA’s is ~-1.25 to -1.50. I estimate Nov’s NOAA PDO will come out to ~-1.75 to -1.90 vs Oct’s -2.40 and July’s -4.16, which would show the strong rise.

Thank you for this info

Sh&t... At this point I'll take a coating at the end. At least it looks like something happened and it wasn't washed away.

I think @Blizzard of 93should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible.

what's the best site to find soundings? I need to figure if/how much I mix. TIA

Storm cancel December Cancel Winter Cancel

Looks like grid gone here

Maybe? I guess if we end up with 5-8'' of paste there could be some isolated outages here and there. Doubt it'll end up being that widespread.

Stein with the rain