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Almost 80F tomorrow and 80F+ Wednesday? Say it isn't so... 73F/DP 62F

I'm confused: RDU reported over 1.25" just yesterday. Maybe that 0.21 is supposed to be somewhere downtown, but even the color scale doesn't come close around the airport. Oh wait, that graphic ended at 12Z, which was before that crazy band came through.

2.4” final here

Yep, 90 here too.

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

I'll have to start visiting the New England page starting in Dec. These fokes here will get sick of me reporting from up there. I'd be Jebman of the snowbelt

Here are the main points from the CPC MJO update posted today. No surprises, el nino is the main event. With a notable mention of the +IOD potentially beginning to show itself now as of late.

Strong SW winds too! Leaves flying everywhere!

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24.

Raleigh was squarely in the screw zone this time around

what a day. 73 no wind tolerable RH and at least some feeble warmth value still to the sun. top 10er actually -

After the cool down later this week warmth returns over a rather large area of North America.

shall we discuss the total and complete collapse of every single model and ensemble model for this past system. The HRRR literally had a negative skill score at 3 hours that's how bad it was. and it wasn't just the American the euro is just as bad I don't know what that hints for this winter time but that was the most epic and total failure I have seen by models in a long long time Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

90 in the paign, with a chance again tomorrow. Unbelievable for October 12th.

we talk about snow autism in here but the guy looks like he has real autism if u look at his other videos

At the time there was no hurricane. Had that not developed it would have been Stein

We call days like yesterday "rainout theater", lol.

Ah yes, even better haha. Euro has snow through much of NNE Saturday with daytime highs in the 30s up my way.

Alright, enough time has passed to throw this solution out the window. So what's figure out what went wrong as an exercise for this winter. So, our setup relied on a branch of the NS detaching and creating an unusually deep trough over the east coast in order to bring both cold air and the correct wind flow (NNW) to catch moisture from the lakes. Now, what initially would cause this NS trough? Turns out it was an interaction with a SW wave helping to pull it down (GFS run from when it was snowy) Compare that to it's current run. Though we still have our two main players it's interesting how different the circumstance is. Firstly, the interaction is occurring further east, which obviously hurts us. However, what is most interesting is that blob of vorticity over central Mexico as its a Hurricane ejecting it's energy eastward and thus pulling the pattern to be progressive. On the old runs the GFS brought it out to sea instead. Look at the knock on effects it has! On the old run you have a near textbook PNA ridge Now, you can see how there is more energy getting held underneath the ridge (the Hurricane's remains are now in there) which causes a flatter, and thus less blocky, ridge. Some other things you can notice is the previously detached low upstream of our trough has now morphed with it, which reduces the blocking pattern, and that the Artic in general is less amplified than before. All in all, pretty much everything went the wrong way for the mountains to pick up a significant snowstorm. Now, the reason I did this is 1. I'm bored and just took a climatology exam 2. To warmup for winter 3. To see how the models did. As mentioned in my first post nearly all models but the operational Euro had a pattern conducive to accumulating snow, and the reason the Euro didn't is because even back over the weekend it was correctly modeling the tropical impact over Mexico. This should be a lesson against trusting the AI models, as even they were wrong. Furthermore, the hurricane change was within 5 days from this weekend, and it was a dramatic miss, which should call into question any forecast beyond day 4 for synoptics (assuming our current funding for NOAA's soundings and data collection stays the same). Frankly, I wonder if our bad miss on the ice/snow line for last January's storm would've happened if we weren't cutting their data intake as it was a huge miss by our modeling for the storm track and impacts even at day 3. The bottom line of this post is we need to be extremely cautious in trusting the models come this winter. They simply are not preforming as well as in years past when it comes to what matters for us. I personally would not even trust the general synoptic pattern outside of day 3. Mets, or anyone else, please let me know how I did or if my reasoning was solid!

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement.

We hope. It's not in fantasy land so I feel good about that. We can produce on these setups.

Hot and dry winter.