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I think it's pretty clear that it's not at this point. You don't get an epic mid atl stretch in latter January in a canonical front loaded La Nina winter. I think it's time to let that go.

When was the last time we saw a snow mean that high? 2017?

This is one I remember

Google AI- Key Methods for Determining Snow Ratios in NBM: Temperature-Based Algorithms: The SLR is highly dependent on boundary layer and low-level temperatures (surface to 850 mb). Generally, colder air results in higher ratios (fluffy, dry snow), while temperatures near freezing produce lower ratios (wet, dense snow). Melting Rates for Marginal Temperatures: For temperatures at or above 32°F, the NBM v4.2 incorporates idealized melting rates. The total SLR is reduced based on the ratio of melting to accumulating snow, effectively lowering the ratio if the snow melts as it falls. Dynamic/Algorithm-Based Ratios: Instead of a default 10:1, the NBM uses algorithms that consider factors such as: Wind Speed: Higher wind speeds can lead to lower ratios due to snowflake fracturing. Cloud Structure: The presence of supercooled water droplets (higher riming) vs. depositional growth influences the ratio. Ensemble Member Blending: The NBM uses output from several models (HRRR, GFS, ECMWF) to calculate a probabilistic snowfall, utilizing the best-performing models to determine the most likely ratio for a given area. Elevation Adjustments: Ratios are adjusted upward at higher elevations to account for colder, drier conditions in mountainous terrain.

Wow. What a sight to wake up to. GFS showing an almost 40 hour event. PHEW! 6Z EURO is very concerning.

Imma hang here until Thursday.

Both AI models now have a very short window of mixing issues (if any).

Well, it's obviously incorrect. The bullseye for VT is right over my head. We know that never happens.

I think it will be like January in that it will start cold the first week and then moderate for the middle third....then we see what the strat does.

Im on the northern fringes right now

As it stands, where do you see the line for the haves and have nots setting up?

Ground zero at this juncture looks like TN down into NW Bama

The Euro would be some nice ratios with the temps in the mid teens basically

From Google AI- Key Methods for Determining Snow Ratios in NBM: Temperature-Based Algorithms: The SLR is highly dependent on boundary layer and low-level temperatures (surface to 850 mb). Generally, colder air results in higher ratios (fluffy, dry snow), while temperatures near freezing produce lower ratios (wet, dense snow). Melting Rates for Marginal Temperatures: For temperatures at or above 32°F, the NBM v4.2 incorporates idealized melting rates. The total SLR is reduced based on the ratio of melting to accumulating snow, effectively lowering the ratio if the snow melts as it falls. Dynamic/Algorithm-Based Ratios: Instead of a default 10:1, the NBM uses algorithms that consider factors such as: Wind Speed: Higher wind speeds can lead to lower ratios due to snowflake fracturing. Cloud Structure: The presence of supercooled water droplets (higher riming) vs. depositional growth influences the ratio. Ensemble Member Blending: The NBM uses output from several models (HRRR, GFS, ECMWF) to calculate a probabilistic snowfall, utilizing the best-performing models to determine the most likely ratio for a given area. Elevation Adjustments: Ratios are adjusted upward at higher elevations to account for colder, drier conditions in mountainous terrain.

GFS Total QPF: Euro AI AIFS:

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

Obviously nowhere near as deep snow as 2013-14. But with the bitter winds and drifting snow, absolutely has the feels of severe winter.

My guess is that NYC will be closer to 10° this weekend with the 0° readings in the outlying colder areas similar to the NDFD.

If the Euro comes to fruition, they’re honestly screwed.

That's what we are talking about lol. Already posted.

Hopefully we'll have something to track in about 10-15 days.

GEFS 10:1 snow mean. Not bad. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

06Z Total QPF (NYC) GFS: 0.4 - 0.5 Euro AI AIFS: 0.9 - 1.1 Euro: through 144 looked more or less in line with the 1/20 00Z

That would be kind of rough for them, 0.0 infrastructure for big ice