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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html

Joe, since your tracking 90dF+ days each year, thought I'd look at the longer period stns on your list, and graph the yearly counts as reference. Unfortunately, MDW has a 15 yr gap.

Absolutely, sorry if that came off as having a “winner” or “loser”. It’s a discussion board, so it was a little funny that after 6 paragraphs about the overuse of “heat dome”, that Tip writes a one liner about a massive heat dome in the long range. Hopefully we can see a little of the humor in that sequence of posts.

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years. I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely. Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN. The other 25-30% at normal. However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps. Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal. However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless. Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps. But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline. That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters. The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter. The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East. I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean. As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances. But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters. Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that. I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

Epic snow hole

The rain in Garner was fun-for about 8 minutes I guess it was measurable lol

Light stratiform rains what a novelty

Radar looking better up this way currently, heavy rain at this time with that blob area moving NE over my location.

Practicing for the blockbuster winter of 26/27. Get your snowblower lubed and ready to go.

It sucks to be you. I think i got .22" in 30 minutes this morning, and it's still pouring. You need to move up to the land of the luscious green grass.

. 02

When the warm pool extends from Japan to California it allows the PDO to move closer to neutral. The key to watch going forward will it be able to get positive and hold it. Recent years the daily PDO values have rebounded back closer to neutral but couldn’t get into sustained positive territory. When the PMM was this strong going into the summer of 2015, the PDO was at +1.65. July 2015 +1.65 PDO vs May 2026 -PDO at -1.60 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

That was just enough of a shower to stabilize the atmosphere. Now when the line behind this one gets here....POOF!

No rain here since last evening. I guess the snook holds special powers to get rain.

We can probably ignore 2021, since there was no el nino. 1991, with the robust el nino, is probably the better analog. That one bucked the trend, and was an extremely warm spring and summer in the Eastern US. The thing about 1991 was that there was a major volcano in mid-June (which screwed things up), and don't have that (yet) this year.

the reason for this stream of moisture is a stationary front sitting from northeast of Scranton down through northern Maryland and precip now is staying mainly west of the NJ Turnpike and is encountering drier air as it is moving northeast and becoming lighter in northern NJ - so it is doubtful that heavier precip in Mayland makes it this far north

We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes

MESSAGE 2: Increasing heat risk to end June and start July A major pattern change over the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West this weekend will likely result in a downstream upper ridge developing over the eastern U.S. by early next week. Blended ensemble guidance driving the prototype probabilistic heatrisk is confirming the signal for a building to potentially prolonged heatwave to end June and start July. CPC has placed a 20-40% slight risk of extreme heat over CPA from 6/30-7/6 with higher chances in the 40-60% range in southeast PA. High humidity and temperatures (highs in the 90s with heat index values possibly reaching 100F) will greatly increase the risk of heat-related illness.

That sucks. I was worried yall would miss out. Your time is coming, maybe one day?

I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves.

The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:

Whoever did their rain dance in Raleigh this morning, it worked. 0.91” here from first round

Just teasing the grass here. Screwed again.