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Yep

Surface shows a strong high that just does not want to move much from south of Hudson Bay that might help us out?

If Central Park records 6" or more, I'll donate 50 dollars to the charity of your choice. Let's get some good karma going.

Truth telling does sting Mr Huffy

Aside from the 12z and 0z NAM, which look unreasonable and lack a focused WNW-ESE area of heavier precip, there is a good consensus of a peak QPF axis around 0.75-0.8" extending from roughly the PA/NJ/NY border ESE toward NYC and the western third of LI. However in reality the peak QPF axis will likely be more narrow than shown by the HREF. The HREF snowfall amounts are often overdone, but given that I expect ratios of 12 to 13:1 even in NYC and Nassau County, I think they are overall pretty reasonable here. I would conservatively go with 5-8" from Orange, Rockland and Westchester counties SE into Bergen and Passaic Counties in NJ, NYC, Nassau and W. third of Suffolk. Could see local amounts up to 10-12" where best banding sets up (likely N of NYC).

Yikes.

I'm pretty sure @WmsptWxwasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm. He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front. The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days. I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.

Winter storm warning for NYC 4-8 inches

Mt. Holly just downgraded me to a winter weather advisory for 3-5 now. Instead of the 4-8 and winter storm watch..

After our areas first chance at snow this year I observed just how far the areas winter weather driving skills have plummeted after a few meager winters. They weren't great before, but they are bordering on Atlanta drivers during a snowstorm bad now. Throw in Friday being a big holiday driving day and I fear any downplaying of this is going to lead to bad bad outcomes especially with the uncertainty of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is relatively easy to deal with road wise, but the minute it goes to freezing rain with temperatures in the 20s it's going to be real bad. The pavement is not going to hold the warmth of this afternoon. The low tonight is 25. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

15z SREFS coming in NE

Does anyone have the gefs?

100% correct- the vast majority of precip will last about 6 hours in any given location. Freezing drizzle will follow. Merry Christmas everyone!

Mine says 3-5 while the snow totals for select towns says 4-7 lol

My point and click says 5-10”

Next Friday couple be a redo of tomorrow night. Definitely has potential from that wave coming down with the arctic front!

Apple weather app.

I could see locally 8-10” jack somewhere that gets lucky

WWA now. Figures with models trending downward. However more ice will probably cause more issues had we just had more snows.

Is that on am app or something?

Updated map

Very toasty Christmas overall, record breaking warmth southwest and central

I’ll sell 10-15+.

Enjoy the e coli for Christmas.