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18z euro a move NE as well.

The mountain torquers seem rather excited. Got to have a big old HP slam down from Siberia into east Asia. Of course we have to hope some hitherto little known index does not screw it up.

Just looking at the 18z EuroAIFS....that is a pretty good look. It is wild to see the Jan 2 cold front trend today. I think we see several cold fronts forced south and east. That seems like it has slider or clipper potential. But with modeling bouncing around right now.....I hope today is the beginning of the ship being steadied, ie we get a fairly predictable pattern.

True most of the time

Models suck and meteorologists model hug

Do you think it will eventually?

Im ready for some action lol. At least one opportunity

And if the now advertised PAC jet extension can dislodge the Aleutian Ridge

Nice bump on 18z euro AI too.

I think a lot of it just depends on how the NAO evolves and how long it hangs around. Probably not getting an answer on that one soon.

NWS pretty bullish

I have been wanting to post that GEM map all day. We were doing Christmas with some of my family...I definitely was sneaking a peak at models. But my 12z model deep dive...just now happening. There is an interesting demarcation point after the 5th...does it warm up and we get a heavy rain event as Holston posted? Or does end up frozen(not at those levels)??? I tend to think the cold hangs around, but that is an educated guess and by no means fact.

May be true but it sounds like a drinker/stoner thought. Well, it is the holidays so carry on... 36F

Def want to see the other guidance keep it up. Put more in the game.

The very definition as an outlier, but it deserves its moment since it is inside o 240. Departures from normal....That would include -11F IMBY. I have to look at chinook maps for a couple of weeks on modeling. So, humor me...haha.

Not the CTP update but This is kinda funny Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They are late.... Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

And this morning we were worried about suppression. Just enjoy tracking .

Day drinking.

Man what a weenie run of GEFS , there are rough estimate 35% of members that are in the 8-12" range at 10:1 ratios for the SW third of the state

Upton snow maps shifted east with 5 pm updates

Fingers crossed that this Christmas will be the year that santawow will bring us a dark theme mode. I’ve been good, I promise !

I have found that the Euro coupled with the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) has been decent this winter. When the two are singing the same song...good thing. When the GFS starts to trend towards them...better thing. The GEM only goes out to 240, so I kind of use the GEPS to see where it might have gone if it went past 300 hours at the deterministic level. Both get to a pretty similar place. BTW, the ensembles have moved quite a lot over the past 48 hours. Right now(rightly or wrongly), I don't trust any model which breaks the NAO down too quickly. Unrelated, it just kind of seems like about the time the NAO makes its exit...the EPO/PNA is gonna pop. That has been a pattern for several winters. NE TN folks have generally not benefitted from this, but with the cold pool so strong...I have to think the cold doesn't get held up at the Plateau or even the Apps.

If the gfs holds i think watches expand for even eastern of Long Island tomorrow.