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Dog days of winter

Big time, came in west downstream too. That's a terrific sign for that model, which has been otherwise rock-steady

trough digs more SW

Losing the storm is different than not having cold air to work with

Id call the two busts comparable. Feb 5, 2011 had a forecast of partly sunny and ended up with 4-6". Yesterday had a forecast of dusting to less than an inch and had 4-7

AIFS with a solid move west pretty close with GFS AI now,

Small model input errors amplify with time. Even looking a few days into the future, chaos wins by default. That's why until you can control the weather, it will continue to be unpredictable.

We need to set it free and if it loves us it will come back. I don’t remember many that hit, that we didn’t loose 2 or 3 days before they came back.

Canadian all rain

AIs have proven to be better outside of 96 hours, but the physics-based models are better inside of that time frame. It makes perfect sense really, the "math equation" is solvable in the shorter time frames, but too chaotic to be useful in the longer range. Pretty much can be said for ensembles vs. operational. The value of pattern recognition is greatest in the longer (mid, really) ranges.

Euro appears to be a bit more west so far.

From a fellow weather buddy of mine ... "Gfs's pattern of inventing massive snow storms and then backing off as we approach is impressively consistent. It's like the Cleveland Browns of weather models." Hahahahahaha!!

I guess 44 degrees and rain is better than 33 and rain though?

I'll just post it lol-

Why is it that there's an emoji and a negative term for people perceived as getting overly excited at the prospect of snow, but not a corresponding emoji and negative term for people who are just as excited when a potential for snow fizzles out? The latter group seems more questionable to me. It's like being a Mets fan vs being someone who doesn't root for any particular team, but just roots against the Mets all day. I think we should coin a new phrase for the latter group, and create an appropriate emoji. I propose the term bun.

Check the 15z run. I think it takes a couple cycles to update. 12z probably still included the last good GFS run. It does seem like it is weighted towards the GFS output to me.

Wow Euro AI is a nice hit for the coast

Euro AI is more NW than 6z, even though snow amounts are more paltry

EuroAI has 1” to west shore of the Bay more or less. Maybe a tiny bit less than 6z.

Euro AI isn't good.

ECMWF-AI looks better at 12z. lol At least, it throws back some more precip. Based on all the expert analysis in this thread, not buying it yet.

What cracks me up is the myth of models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures. I think we have been through now its mandatory cover all bases for continued funding mode . What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast. Thats way better for us than a phasing job.

It's tough to take any threat seriously if the Euro isn't onboard. Sunday always seemed like a longshot.

1990-1993 was bleak until the blizzard, 1997-2000 was bad, 2006-2009 had very few events and 2012 and 2013 had basically nothing. With that being said the period between January 2019 until January 2026 is the longest, least snowy period I can find. 7 years with 1 winter storm warning here. 7 years with only 4 small events totals. 7 years with 16 inches of snow total. 2.3 inches per year.

Just ripping here. Beautiful out there.