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I think it's safe to say that most folks in the triangle (and especially Wake) will not see any substantial snow until lunch time or after... Which is going to have a lot of people around here saying, "Where is the snow!?" Trends show much of our snow coming from the coastal low

Im trying to not let bias kick in, but it’s only increased its run to run variability closer to game time and each run differs from consensus drawn by much better models.

Last fall, I didn't anticipate the strong PV accompanying the +TNH to decouple from the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redvelope for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

Understandable... I got 20ish inches in December in several smaller events... I love good storms but will take pack refreshers

WXII

For sanity of us all don't really pay attention to the exact amounts on models exp the NAM. Just use them for the trends. The location of the bands is likely to be within the area of best forcing from the coastal formation.

If the NAM 3k verifies central South Carolina rejoices and North Carolina has tons of milk that goes bad. This would extend the 2608 day streak in Greensboro of no snow falls above 4 inches .

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.

Spectrum

I think something messed the 12k up. Same location on the 12k and 3k .

3k NAM at 12z crushes CAE

Looks as if the 3k has some issues. Way too different than 12k, and most other model guidance.

Now can we toss the NAM? It’s all over the damn place.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up.

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

Needless to say, I don’t think the nam has a clue where the banding is going to set up

Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K. Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference. So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high.

okay can we do a contest you start it Roger where we guess the snow Totals for Central Park for winter 2025-26. Winner gets $100 in bitcoin

Currently at 18/16 - I am not sure I will hit the forecast of 37 today.

Tough season for Mr. Webb.

Tight cluster around that 15" snow mark

NAM 3K much different. Pretty much 0 for Wake through 33.

Think we see alot of those tonight for the radiators. Looks fairly calm and clear for interior SNE/CNE.

3K - Still snowing at the coast but severely different then 12k