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  2. CAPE
    Still a quarter to half inch in the forecast for tonight. Only meso model that has anything close to that is the latest run of the HRRR, which will be completely different in an hour. Can't wait for the atmospheric response to the Nino to fully kick in. Actually looking foreword to a dreary Fall with lots of rain lol.
  3. jewell2188
    Seems pretty typical around here. Storms maybe later seem progressive. Not expecting much.
  4. Stormlover74
    Supposed to die out
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  6. Eskimo Joe
    Per SPC mesoanalysis, there's a pretty solid are of instability cresting the Allegheny Front.
  7. vortex95
    In tropical situations, it can be useful to use the virtual temp at the sfc instead of the dry bulb temp. Using it can represent CAPE better in such environments (virtual temp decreases CIN and increases CAPE). 76 dew point is nothing to shake a stick at! Don't need too much heating for things to go and go well w/ that kind of juice.
  8. WestBabylonWeather
    Possible rain earlier than expected?
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Use NAM MOS and HRRR together and you knew when the flip from SN -> IP -> RA would occur 90% of the time. That combination consistently schooled the GFS and Euro inside 30 hrs.
  10. CAPE
    Slightly wet ground. Is this it? Yesterday's forecast was for a half inch today and up to an inch tonight. LOL This has been a recurring trend with the forecasts here for months.
  11. vortex95
    Yes, the NAM has some uses. It handles CAD much better than the GFS, as one example and its MOS reflects that. But the HRRR handles CAD well, so no loss there. Since it has more vertical levels than all the global models, its should handle mix zone better and we are used to that. But again, the HRRR and now RRFS should effectively replace that skill (eventually). Losing some for other gain happens. I recall NHC objected to an upgrade of the GFS some years ago b/c it was clearly shown that the upgrade made TC skill less for the EPAC basin. The upgrade was done regardless. So it's hard to please everyone!
  12. WestBabylonWeather
    Cooled off with the cloud cover and wind. First half of day was nice
  13. EastCoast NPZ
    I need to move to Frederick.
  14. WxUSAF
    Got the Stephen’s city treatment so far today. Not even 0.1”, way less than most mesonet stations in central MD
  15. vortex95
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Not the thread for this question, but is the conversation for it. I understand turning the NAM off for convective season, however, I don’t understand turning it off for winter short term stuff. I would love to know why, I assume it’s something in how it handles thermodynamics and WAA, but the NAM is almost always the most correct model when it comes to refining the mixing line in synoptic scale winter storms. It just seems odd to turn off a model which has a very useful edge on all others, even if it sucks at a lot of other aspects; could at least compromise and run it before major storms on the east coast. Would love to know your thoughts on both why it surpasses the other mesoscale models in the mixing line placement and how to compensate for its disappearance come winter time.
  17. wncsnow
    It’s raining again today and rained yesterday. It’s rained almost every day the last 6 weeks. What a turnaround after a super dry first 6 months of the year
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR puts a legit bow through Frederick/Loudoun/Montgomery/Carroll counties right at sunset.
  19. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!
  20. Torch Tiger
    Perhaps we'll see a few showers/storms if an U/L digs across SE Canada next weekend. OTW very very dry
  21. canderson
    .35” so far. We’ll see if we get more later this afternoon/evening. I have a doubt we do.
  22. Torch Tiger
    Nasty dry day. At least it's sunny and mild
  23. mitchnick
    Still rising slowly.
  24. Today
  25. the_other_guy
    Looks like an El Nino tropical map to me
  26. so_whats_happening
    It did in 1997 just a few weeks earlier this go around. I don't yet know why but feel this will peak earlier than expected.
  27. jaxjagman
    Last typhoon that hit East China warmed the SSTS off East Asia especially East off Japan.Still myself would rather to see the PDO right now to rise and not fall.We might be seeing a repeat of the pattern we are in as we get closer to end of August into Sept. That strong WWB ongoing along with the Rossbly Waves should really kick off some tropical storms in the PAC the next few weeks
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