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October 9 1970: Montevideo sets a record low high temperature of 35. 1938: Forest fires on the 9th and 10th claim 21 lives in northern Minnesota. For Friday, October 9, 2026 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 9 Fri World Egg Day 9 Fri World Post Day 9 Fri Leif Erikson Day 9 Fri International Beer and Pizza Day 9 Fri National Digitool Day 9 Fri National Moldy Cheese Day 9 Fri National Pro-Life Cupcake Day 9 Fri National C60 Day 9 Fri Curious Events Day

Historical context - Isaias is easily the strongest Oct-Nov GOM hurricane since the beginning of the 20th Century when considering the 15 strongest El Ninos. Note that 2002 (Lili) was excluded from this list as it was a Modoki Nino. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108558918406328651

Going over very warm water now keeping the intensity up. Will hit cooler water as it goes north and shear to weaken it. Time is running out.

Models (at least right now) show in moving in and out fairly quickly so maybe 1-2 inches of rain

Everyone that knows a lick about weather knows west moving typhoons means ridging or zonal flow and not cold lol

A rapidly intensifying major under 10 hours from landfall is justification for as many passes as they safely have fuel for!

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.

Whole northern eyewall is blowing up with convection now

Not to take away from the immediate impact dangers, but being up in NJ, I'm starting to be concerned with the remnants hitting like Ida did. We got over six inches of rain in just a few hours causing significant flooding.

If we care about safety, there should be no games in this area on Saturday. Forget the $$$, common sense and safety should come first. These games can be played on Sunday or even Monday. Sandy made landfall on Monday (10/29/2012), and I didn't leave to go anywhere until Wednesday (10/31).

Coming in now for a rare pass #6

I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

Thoughts on start time in north Jersey?

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994). So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

The regional hurricane models started hinting at this yesterday but there’s a solid chance of a cat 4 peak, especially with the still improving presentation. Would like to see more pressure falls continuing for that to happen but this hot tower might do it we’re roughly 10 hours or so from landfall and this hasn’t peaked. I’m growing doubtful of significant weakening given trends this morning. Hurricane models also show this being much stronger on the coast than yesterday.I think the continued easterly motion and increase in speed is the cause.

They have us at 3-5" for mostly Saturday night.

Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.

https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/2108462156245078159 SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Can rapid October snow advance in Siberia predict your winter? This is a famous forecast signal for cold winters in the U.S. and Europe, so we tested it across 47 winters of data and 4 different datasets. The results were surprising, and they change how we should read this October’s snow surge as we head into Winter 2026/2027. The first week of October was a bit slower than normal. But the forecast shows a big surge of snow coming in the next two weeks. If it verifies, this would be one of the faster October snow advances of the last three decades, roughly in the top 15% for this period of the month. Keep in mind that this is still an early look, as most of the data comes from the ECMWF forecast, which updates several times per day. The true final number will only be known after October 31. So, what happened with winter after similar October snow advances in the past? Below are the six years with the most similar October snow advances so far, and the winter AO that followed. The following winter AO was negative three times, near neutral once, and positive twice. Three of these years, 2002, 2019, and 2023, also had active El Niño, like this year, but they still produced three very different winters. So on its own, a fast snow advance this October tells us little about the coming winter in the modern era.

Looks like we may get hammered by this storm with heavy rain. Good thing we are pretty dry still. Our forecast has us at 3-5", most of it Saturday night.

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes.

Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall.

Sat image reminds me of Opal.