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Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.

Still want it more negative but maybe the NS can help it tilt by gametime

ICON gonna be so close, need that trough to go negative a little earlier but yeah we're in the game.

Hmm. Icon seems to be digging more west. Steeper ridge out west.

Lol, ended up with almost 4" here. On the high end of what most models showed 24 hours out.

ICON has me interested

Also I like where the tendencies are on the ensemble. And the heights themselves definitely trended more neutral. Only caveat as WxUSAF said is that it still needs to nudge west to really put us in the canonical bullseye for an h5 leading into a coastal.

Should've been UVA's spot. Not that we would've done as good as Miami... probably. Still stings a bit.

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17. We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon. Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing. Stay tuned....more to come. Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain. Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

couple of models selling a DAB+ stat padder

Walking the dog yesterday felt so different compared to recent weeks. Sun, Temps near 40, no wind... today will be even more springlike

I'm an electrician

I had 9” in the early-January storm and I’m a smidge west of the fall line!

Wpc overnight does have a low almost on cape cod for the 15th

yeah, noticing on sat/vis loop ...there's some environmental tussle going on where the S/SW flow is running over the top of this shallow radiative cooled dense BL air. instantiating a very low very shallow overrunning lift. Probably not a well modeled circumstantial feed-back. The strata that is the result is like super thin but with a low early Jan sun angle, that's enough to blot out and shade. if we can keep the mid and upper level clouds at bay, eventually we'll warm enough that this will mix out but some places may get a couple hours of ceiling first.

I don’t think it’s really a “new” thing, but rather a timing difference. If you look at 00z, there’s a piece of energy that dives in a couple frames before this. Whether I’m right or not, if we can get that piece to dive in and phase then we’re in bidness.

it is a true blessing to have two kids, but it is NOT a blessing for your kids to contaminate your mind with useless stuff.

I won’t go there

What kind of service do you do?

Not a bad trend for that diving piece. Though I could not get 18z since it does not go far enough. In the interest of transparency, I think the organization of the whole thing was worse there. But 00z and 06z definitely nice trends away from that.

Baby steps.

I thought the ICON was loading up too at the end of 6z, but what do I know.

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

Being in my 50s, I am blessed to have 2 teenagers that keep me young and 'in the loop'. Last legit storm we got Dec 13-14 here they asked me how much I was looking at. I said 6, maybe 7 and they did some juggling motion and started repeating six, sevennnn. So, um, yeah I 'blessed'