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I wasn't going to do it because I'm pretty tired from working all day, but I think I'll pour a nice slug of a good whiskey for the gfs.

Do you live right on top of a #DATA center, bro?

Waiting for a storm to form is the worst experience ever. You never know what it will actually do.

Still liking my 8-16” call for the Lehigh Valley. If you blend the amped AF mesos and the farther east models you get something in that range.

38/30, dropped two degrees in the past hour

Latest guidance from GSP KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW REALLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTN, BUT PEAK GUSTS INTO ADVISORY-CRITERIA RANGE OF 45-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD AND INTO 3RD PERIOD, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU ABOUT MIDDAY, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTN AND RAMP UP SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT DUE TO WARMER VALLEY TEMPS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT COULD SET UP JUST EAST OF I-77. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. OTHERWISE, SKIES CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL FOR HIGHS, MAINLY IN THE 30 TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW MACHINE WILL BE CRANKING UP SUNDAY EVENING, AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS FROM THE CORN BELT SUNDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, THE DEPTH OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE COVERING THE TN VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 700 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER COOLING TO -16 TO -20C. WHILE THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE SHALLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN NO WARMER THAN -16 UNTIL TUE EVENING. THIS MEANS A PROTRACTED PERIOD...30 HOURS OR MORE OF A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND EFFICIENT SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS...ALL WITHIN PERSISTENT STRONG NW UPSLOPE FLOW. SOLID WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF THE OTHER NC COUNTIES BORDERING TN. CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTALS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-4" RANGE IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-40, WITH ABOUT TWICE THAT RANGE EXPECTED ABOVE 3500 FEET. ESPECIALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE/HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE STATE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND A FOOT OR MORE. THIS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MITCHELL COUNTY, WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR YANCEY, MADISON, HAYWOOD, AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF SWAIN. WITH VERY WINDY (LIKELY WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS) AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO. CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE "VERY CLOSE, BUT NOT QUITE" IN TERMS OF REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ONE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND/OR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY STEADILY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND COOLER-THAN- NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN BE LOW MON NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS STEADILY DIMINISHING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

If your right I'm coming to you for lottery numbers bro!!

32.4°/29°

Better than the Hudson shadow

Pissed about losing gold in women's hockey and worried about getting swept in the morning by the men.

He said no chance earlier this week and that monkeys will fly if the gfs is right.

picked up another 1/4" this evening

he was in youtube chat tonight arguing his point. about the models..

Me neither bro !

It is, but you want it passing underneath you at max intensification rate, not after it's matured.

I'd like to be the first to report snow. Hi today was 49.8 but cooled off nicely to 33 now. I would absolutely love to be in New Jersey but that inconvenient thing called work is keeping me in the home office. I hope we all do well!

Albany played it safe: Winter Storm Watch, not upgraded yet, 4-8" Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

The Canadians have never been on board. Not sure what to make of it.

Yup

I thought it was good to have H5 go underneath one's area

Really dislike Miller B's, models can never predict them well.

That guy is trash person

Speaking this into existence: GFS will come west with a nice CCB over the metros

colder can't hurt. But might not be enough for early stuff. Is early stuff supposed to be light or thumpy? I thought it was supposed to be light.

MDT is already down to 31 at 10 pm, which is 2 degrees lower than the overnight low forecast.