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AIs remain steadfast. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

If you get really cold early it can make it easier for that to happen. Many trees/plants need to go through a certain amount of hours below a threshold and then they're ready to bloom. In 89-90 there was a crazy amount of blooming in VA/NC/SC in mid to late January because everything reached its hours below in December. In a winter like 15-16 that probably did not happen since you never got cold enough in those areas for them to get required hours on the underside. Up north though it did and stuff bloomed in NYC. Fortunately when the warm spell happens this early the flowers/buds can die and then often get another stretch below threshold to regenerate again in late February or March. If you get heavy blooming in early or mid Feb though and then a killer 3-4 day stretch of 20s/30s the flowers will just die and the tree will leaf out 6-8 weeks later.

Well...there's precip..warm and light tho. Oh well. Worst hobby ever

Nice slug approaching from our SW at 228...lets see what she does

euro has 2-3 inches of snow for saturday for the city and north sunday shows a graze better but still not there. euro will inch west and than make a big move. I don't think the west trend is done on gfs and the other models. The storm will trend stronger and more amped therefore it'll bring more moisture westerly in my opinion!

Did it just tick a little closer for Sunday? Lol We'll see tomorrow if that was just noise

EC a definite improvement though still a graze

Well, I thought the Euro was doing things at 156...nevermind, just a front it looks like. some light snow tho

If the AI’s win this, that will be a huge win.

AIFS has 0.5 qpf for Boston along the pike to ORH to eastern CT and all of RI

Still waiting for it on wxmodels

That would be all time huge Dog….that’s record shattering.

Must be a systemic change to make them uniform.

How far west did Euro come?

0z EC AIFS ticked up, warnings to south shore Excellent trends at 0z so far

Big dog cold signal continues

Looks like the Euro is also correcting west.

Good morning everyone. I hope you are all doing well. So I have the My Lightning Tracker on my phone and over the past few months when there is nothing in the area for Lightning - my tracker goes off near Hume, VA (mainly to the South and East) / Fauquier County. It happens randomly like today's instance had one strike at 5:52 am and then this evening around 7:47 there were two strikes detected. Does anyone else have this on their phone and seeing the same thing? Obviously the question being - what the hell is it since it is not lightning? Thanks and take care. Ohh yeah... Go Bills!

AI euro has 2-4 inches for NYC.

Rates (precipitation per hour) are actually modeled to be fairly high. Modeled FGEN is significant across several models. But total precipitation is relatively light due to the short duration. Several models including the GFS deliver over 0.3" liquid over 4-6 hours in or near our region. A few models even have greater than 0.5" liquid nearby. That's a fairly significant QPF signal for short-duration frontogenic banding. The forecast difficulty is that the modeled placement of this banded feature (CT, LHV, CNJ) is highly variable. Forecast temperatures range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across our region with NYC roughly 31F to 35F depending on model during precipitation. Wetbulb temperatures are a little lower and modeled surface temperatures dropping during precipitation. Notably the HRRR is warmest, particularly after precipitation ends Saturday afternoon. NYC will probably record a minimum temperature below 33F on Saturday.

AIFS is more amped

I read that 5 days in it has very high grades.

But the main thing? Stj waking up That's my bar for now until we get closer to a threat because that could mean we get opportunities

euro will stubbornly not budge in my opinion until tomorrow night!

Seems like the night shift has given up. Just a few of us interested. Overall very good trends at 0z. Let’s see if the euro gives some love.