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Weenie me all you want and hopefully someone smarter will tell me I'm wrong, but i'd argue, at the end of the RGEM run that NS wave coming in out west is coming at an advantageous angle to maybe not kick but to actually help.

dont bother--the ULL is almost in the GOM

I would think RGEM would climb the coast if it continued? Good sign for the 12z CMC.?

FWIW I do believe models are struggling with bombogenesis, but with most of the runs its already too far east to matter.

That's a perfect example of the things Messenger would notice when blasting all the hopefulls with his "Messenger Shuffles". Convective/Cyclonic nodes out east dragging the whole system east = "No snow for you!!"

Another good look

Gonna be Igone too.

Based on all these posts about the kicker kicking the ULL out to sea, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding of what a "kicker" really is and what role it plays. Some extra vorticity behind the main low doesn't really act to "kick" it east. The main issue is wave spacing. If spaced far enough apart, there's little or no effect... the ULL is on its own and may or may not close/neg tilt depending on the overall trough/ridge orientation and/or any upstream blocking if any. If spaced close enough though, they begin to phase and pull the ULL north, as has happened on 1/25/00. But if they are closely spaced but not close enough to phase, i.e. poor wave spacing, the flow becomes flattened in between, making it harder for the ULL to deepen. I think we've went over this before. It's not so much of a "kicker" but wave spacing.

Looks similar to 6z. Maybe a little bit better?

progressive model progressive outcome

Just got into work. Haven't seen it. Going to look now.

She’s a beaut, Clark

RGEM a big hit especially for the Carolinas. Little to south for @Buddy1987 and myself. But its not done

It looks like the weekend winter storm is favoring a weak, possibly inside the circle phase 8 at this time based on the GEFS/EPS/JMA consensus.

ICON too positive unfortunately.

RGEM (still going most areas)

Here in Carlisle, earlier this morning I dropped to a low of 7.0 degrees. This is the second consecutive night that NWS temps have been noticeably off. Yesterday morning the forecast low was for +2 degrees, and I only dropped to 8.8 degrees, creating a departure of 6.8 degrees. This morning the forecast was also for +2 degrees, creating a departure of 5.0 degrees. I think there had to be a level of wind during most of the night that put the kabosh on radiational cooling. Tonight they have forecast a low of +3 degrees with winds becoming calm much earlier in the night. So, perhaps tonight will be the night? We'll see...

February 5th to 6th 2010 picked up 23” in SE Pa

1/28 12z ICON

Can someone make an argument that will lead me to believe that I will NOT get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/VA Beach? I'm supposed to be out of town this weekend and fly back on Sunday. I really want to go on the trip, but I'm not sure, in good conscience, I can go and leave my wife and three kids to fend for themselves until I get back.

RGEM is a big hit

I've actually seen it happen. In fact, shit I don't remember which one but for the longest time after learning about convective-grid-scale feedback in undergrad studies, I just went ahead and assumed that all cold winter deep trough approaching the Gulf/adjacent SW Atlantic warm moist source would trigger that phenomenon. But, convection really early in the total synoptic evolution ... , can be real, too. The difference is whether it is on the grid intervals. That causes the low formulation .. which then escapes in the streamline downstream, taking a lot of latent heat away from the primary forcing associated with the main trough. This is less than technically everything going on but just making concept here... However, there was storm in my lore that was maybe 20 years ago, where I-be damned if a big plume of convection didn't erupt and gobble all the fuel away and escape seaward. I was like, 'wtf! that's supposed to be convective fakery' - that's when I gathered the difference between a real convection tainted event, and one that is manufactured by the models and is thus not necessarily real. It's a quasi now-cast thing in the 18 hours prior...

no recollection of 3/3/10 at all.....

That's still about 30 seconds too long

by the way, though it was rain, it was a beast of a storm and caused lots of outages here; had to move a 60th birthday party for a friend at the last second because the restaurant lost power; we found a hotel that could accommodate us at the last second.