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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.
CoastalWx replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
18z euro a move NE as well. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The mountain torquers seem rather excited. Got to have a big old HP slam down from Siberia into east Asia. Of course we have to hope some hitherto little known index does not screw it up. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just looking at the 18z EuroAIFS....that is a pretty good look. It is wild to see the Jan 2 cold front trend today. I think we see several cold fronts forced south and east. That seems like it has slider or clipper potential. But with modeling bouncing around right now.....I hope today is the beginning of the ship being steadied, ie we get a fairly predictable pattern. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Ruin replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
True most of the time -
Models suck and meteorologists model hug
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Golf757075 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Do you think it will eventually? -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Golf757075 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Im ready for some action lol. At least one opportunity -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
And if the now advertised PAC jet extension can dislodge the Aleutian Ridge -
26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.
CoastalWx replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Nice bump on 18z euro AI too. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think a lot of it just depends on how the NAO evolves and how long it hangs around. Probably not getting an answer on that one soon. -
Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.
Duca892 replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have been wanting to post that GEM map all day. We were doing Christmas with some of my family...I definitely was sneaking a peak at models. But my 12z model deep dive...just now happening. There is an interesting demarcation point after the 5th...does it warm up and we get a heavy rain event as Holston posted? Or does end up frozen(not at those levels)??? I tend to think the cold hangs around, but that is an educated guess and by no means fact. -
Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.
Birds~69 replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
May be true but it sounds like a drinker/stoner thought. Well, it is the holidays so carry on... 36F -
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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.
WxWatcher007 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Def want to see the other guidance keep it up. Put more in the game. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The very definition as an outlier, but it deserves its moment since it is inside o 240. Departures from normal....That would include -11F IMBY. I have to look at chinook maps for a couple of weeks on modeling. So, humor me...haha. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Jns2183 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Jns2183 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
They are late.... Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
And this morning we were worried about suppression. Just enjoy tracking .
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Day drinking.
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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Man what a weenie run of GEFS , there are rough estimate 35% of members that are in the 8-12" range at 10:1 ratios for the SW third of the state -
Upton snow maps shifted east with 5 pm updates
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Fingers crossed that this Christmas will be the year that santawow will bring us a dark theme mode. I’ve been good, I promise !
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have found that the Euro coupled with the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) has been decent this winter. When the two are singing the same song...good thing. When the GFS starts to trend towards them...better thing. The GEM only goes out to 240, so I kind of use the GEPS to see where it might have gone if it went past 300 hours at the deterministic level. Both get to a pretty similar place. BTW, the ensembles have moved quite a lot over the past 48 hours. Right now(rightly or wrongly), I don't trust any model which breaks the NAO down too quickly. Unrelated, it just kind of seems like about the time the NAO makes its exit...the EPO/PNA is gonna pop. That has been a pattern for several winters. NE TN folks have generally not benefitted from this, but with the cold pool so strong...I have to think the cold doesn't get held up at the Plateau or even the Apps. -
If the gfs holds i think watches expand for even eastern of Long Island tomorrow.
