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On the other hand, if this pattern coming up is nothing more than another tease, I am ok with a really early spring....just got my first seed catalog in the mail and the boys start indoor baseball this weekend, so I could go either way.

0z GFS is looking a lot more interesting for the chance on the 15th. Definitely room for possible improvement at the surface with this look at H5.

Yes it has looked and felt like winter. Good vibes, at least.

Right? Hopefully we can have a nice mid winter run for once. Not complaining though, despite the overall lack of snow, it has felt like winter for a change. Now lets gets some bigger systems and actually get an average winter for a change

even that year produced one really decent storm in feb.

Cool looking h5 on gfs @ 180hr.

Meant to share earlier

Well the AIGFS has some overrunning only 12 days out… temps cooperate. Generally 2-3” with more further south.

Same but 30 and very light freezing rain. Absolutely anemic precipitation field with this system.

Great to have your obs from the middle of the Upper Valley radar hole! Probably the worst area of radar coverage in a New England region of considerable population

Chuck, But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

All good. Just funny timing.

My bad, haha. Well here's to a really generous pattern after the upcoming warm-up.

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

So...we all know why 45/47 is going after Greenland, right? Obviously, he wants to set up some weather experiments to create a semi-permanent block that shows up annually for the months of Nov-Mar. Oh man...

28.4 Had a coating of snow earlier this evening...just overcast now.

I looked at Historical snowfall records for Hagerstown dating back to 1899. We are in midst of the worst 4 year stretch in recorded history for Hagerstown. We have averaged 12 inches a year for the past 4 years . Places further south and further east have had closer to normal seasons recently but for Northern MD areas, down into the West Va panhandle it's been a brutal stretch. And I'm not exaggerating for the worst 4 year stretch on record for HGR. It's been really ,really bad. The last season above 20" was 20/21. Hagerstown area average is upper 20's

Most of you know that I'm an optimist, but even I can't help but get a little bit worried. We're wasting half of January to wait for a 7/10 highly volatile -EPO/+TNH pattern and a wild card February and March. Will it be as bad as 22-23. 19-20, 16-17, etc.? I don't think so yet.

Bit of a crazy gradient here with that storm. I think it was officially 10”, but it ramped up quick south and east. Some places south would have gotten their 3rd 20” storm in less than 3 years (this after a very slow period in the late 80s, early 90s) Mixed feelings on it overall. I lived in Oakland and had a solid foot. But obviously one of the impactful storms ever in terms of the amounts it dumped on highly populated areas. Tough to see others getting 20 and 30”

A neutral enso will offer opportunities

I have Friday off. Why couldn't this system be about 6-7 hours slower?

26 -sn here

32.2 here. Icing isn't much of a factor.

We're not going to hit La Nina on the ONI. It's going to officially be "ENSO Neutral" for the 2nd straight year.

There's no way you all can be calling this the biggest mid-winter la nina collapse when 2022-23 literally happened just a few years ago. That year, you had a deep multi-year moderate la nina to begin the season turn into an ENSO neutral by winter's end, and later transitioned into a strong el nino the following season. We barely had a la nina this year.