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My Twins swept by the phuglies then turn around and sweep the Braves...make it make sense
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So if the cold arctic summer pattern is in place like the last two winters, and PDO is now rising, those are promising signs for this winter then.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
annunciated replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Interpreting from ARMOR3D's measurements, not only does it span actually about 3,500 miles but also likely has the width of roughly 3-4 degrees of latitude (2N-2S) and a depth of 25 meters on average. The energy required to heat a specific area like that to +10C is ridiculous. If it's anywhere in the >10^16 joule range, which I believe it is, good luck producing that unnaturally. -
Umm
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
HRRR has that flash flooding look tomorrow evening and night from NYC metro to Boston Metro -
From past events, they should keep the same name. HU John in Sep 1994 (longest-lived lived TC on record) did this twice! Once crossing the Dateline going W and then back over it moving NE! It caused some system issues w/ the NWS and JTWC, as the computers at the time refused to accept a TC crossing from W of the Dateline to E of it b/c it has not happened before, at least in terms of how their systems were designed back then.
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Weekend looks like ass too.
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In a lot of months PDO has higher correlation than ENSO actually. In some months it actually has a higher correlation than PNA! Common sense says that PDO is more secondary, but a 7-year stretch where PHL had 10.7" of snow beating their previous 7-year low over 13.5" during the most -pdo time in history.. interesting coincidence? We were tracking the PDO before that. Last 2 winters we had good cold but I think cold Arctic Summers were a reason for that (which we have again this year).
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
NoCORH4L replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yeah weekend shaping up to look junky unfortunately -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
vortex95 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Where has you been? Long-known GFS gets TC spin-up happy after a week. Has been that way for over 10 years. If I had a dime for every time the GFS LR hit New England w/ a hurricane in the last 20 years? -
Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
vortex95 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The 18z HRRR up'ed the ante big time. The two versions of the RRFS are have the same idea w/ one max swrn CT (what else is new) and another near former stomping ground of @CoastalWx (GHG). NAM/HRRR/RRFS show a weak sfc/925 low developing near the S coast and takes its time moving E, so we get comma head backlash in ern MA. There is a stronger upstream 500 trof moving into the Great Lakes by early Sat, and that would tend to move things along. However, the system impacting SNE has little in the way of reflection at 500. It's all low-level, so standard trof "kicker" rules may not apply here. Weymouth 6" special like last year???? -
Finally looks like some cooler weather arrives at least for a few days
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Summer 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion
SchaumburgStormer replied to Brian D's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Feel free to bump troll me when I am bitching in January, but hoping this super nino at least keeps us in a wet pattern. Will deal with warm shots and rain over CAD. -
Aww Crap
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Nam and Euro look nothing like that . Just very light stuff - Today
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Super.
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Great shots! You should pop back up during winter!
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NAMS a bit further north now...
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very el nino-like, so not all that surprising. especially so considering the magnitude of the nino.
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FFA from KPHI Wouldn't be surprised but not saying it will be expanded into NYC and NE NJ - both flooding and marginal severe
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atl cane season seems heading for all-time snoozer status, meanwhile the east pac wants to shit out storms like crazy and it looks like HI gonna have a season for the ages
