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I wouldn't say that any of the forecasts that I looked at this morning exuded much confidence. None of the cams in Bobby's video develop the afternoon convection that the nws mentions in their forecast discussion. His video was released a few hours before the last nws forecast, discussion update. Sunday's afternoon, convection may have still been a little bit outside the cams wheelhouse if they really even have one. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Excessive rain outlook areas adjusted for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. Expect showers and storms to form later this afternoon into Sunday morning, as warm advection brings back the more humid airmass. This will be followed by more showers and storms later Sunday afternoon and evening, as stronger dynamics and cold front work on the humid airmass. Not a lot cold advection, abnormally warm and moist air take aim at the Great Lakes area again on Tuesday, as a strong upper level ridge builds northward from the TN Vly. ERO for today adjusted to one area, and SPC outlook for Sunday trimmed across the southeast. Complex fcst, as been the case this summer. Still holding off on a flood watch for now, given nothing going on yet on radar, still time to see how things play out later this aft. More information below. Guidance does put numerous heavy bands of rain over the area. FFG lower west and north, but heaviest QPF could be to the east. Also maybe things more an issue later Sunday, depending on where that rain falls today. Again, the problem is: where? With uncertainty high as it is and FFG getting higher slowly, still holding off. As mentioned in the Nws forecasts discussion, Spc has trimmed back the marginal risk for Sunday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Rochelle and far outlying areas should dip into the 40s Monday morning. Even Alek will see upper 50s

Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-

Many possibilities during the last half of September. Will the Atlantic Tropics finally become involved??

Oh, it's on the way. You're going to get your wish. Lots of cloudy synoptic stratiform rains, one after the other for months and months. This super nino has got the DMV's Name all over it, and the moisture Plume is pointed directly at the Southeast and the DMV Regions. You are going to get lots and lots and lots and lots of giant, Brobdingnagian synoptic rain shields this fall, winter and also well into the Spring of 2027.

If this model run of the ICON works out that 15-17" of rain forecast will go nicely with the 5-7" of rain that fell in the Des Moines area a few days ago.

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September. 2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

November 3rd

The snowbirds are starting to migrate, my mower blades are ready to be sharpened and fall festivals are upon us. The writing is on the wall temps wise. We just have to squint a bit to see it.

Had a small pop up with that outflow boundary tonite. Picked up .09' so MTD: .10"

I don't think it's going to be an appreciably negative PDO.

August Part 2

Tuesday

Tuesday

While I'm skeptical of anything off the SE coast in the near future, the GDM has a relatively strong signal for something to pop in the subtropics. It does look like parts of the basin will become slightly more conducive in the coming weeks, as more favorable rising motion moves into the basin and shear potentially falls in a narrow region between the Gulf and subtropics.

We did for Christmas 2015 and the last Super Nino.....