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Had an inch of snow earlier, now it's sleeting with occasional snowflakes mixing in. Brisk east wind, 27 degrees. A solid 40" glacier in place.

Still socked in clouds with temps in the low 50s. Guessing we dont get enough clearing to amount to much prior to the front coming through. dont hate the look further west though.

Yeah, our prime BD season isn't here yet. we can't blame every NE accelerating wind field on BDs. BD synoptics are pretty specifically defined, and yesterday into today really isn't what that is. There may have been some tendency/shared physical space, as Scott pointed out yesterday, there was some identifiable rad signatures that a BD-line boundary was involved, but the primary facet/influence in this case is a strong N front with a big high building in. You don't have those features with a typical BD. BD's require a s/w moving ESE N of Maine... As it passes, NVA behind creates DVM and this coupled to the colder marine environment underneath and produces a pressure/density discontinuity where more mass is NE of the region E of the Berkshire/White cordilleras. This triggers a vector moving back SW to "fill" that region with the denser/colder air. And it will do so with the ability to snap flags, wave trees around and slam doors shut as Brian mused.... I've seen BDs with very little discernible actual high pressure at the synoptic scale, with 30 kt NE wind bursts kicking up dust before. These are found most so in late April thru early June. Before then, we have more hybrid types like yesterday - which fits the time of year actually. Just a nasty nasty cfront. By the way, ...if you look down at the Del Marva penn and S, it's a BD for them. Now imagine the climate of May around here, we're like they are today

@ineedsnow snowing at a good clip in Salem nh

Saw some mangled flakes mixing in a bit ago.

SN with windy conditions. Mostly grass accum, with some on the rds. Temp dropped to 30 when the snow got going. Winter is back for a few days.

only 10 days away on an OP run - what could go wrong ???

GFS is a torch for next weekend

Snowing in Hubbardston

I went to college in Maryland and the springs down there are amazing. Coming home on a weekend was a shock from fully leafed out trees to stick season in 250 miles. What we have today is not abnormal but after the first 80 here in SW Nassua yesterday it definitely is not pleasant. .

I feel like there is not much of a correlation between water temperatures and backdoor cold front potential. Perhaps there would be a correlation to the strength of the boundary or maybe the distance the front can traverse. But even when water temperatures are above average this early, they are still pretty chilly. Ultimately its likely tied into synoptic or sub-synoptic flow.

Plenty of time for it.

We pray the GFS is right about next weekend

Feels like another sleeper lower MI tornado day

The record WWBs got going back in January which is pretty early for an El Niño leading to speculation early on that this one has pretty good potential if follow up WWBs become established next few months to keep the ball rolling so to speak.

By June it will be hot enough but costal sections during April and May have to deal with the cold waters and marine air.That's why the best months for pleasant weather is mid September to mid November.Here is Central PA it is beautiful in the Spring. No water within 150 miles!!!

First spring season for you in the northeast? This is the normal spring weather north of DC...warm shots across the bow to let us know summer is coming, but months of back and forth before sustained warmth, which some years doesn't come until early June. Anyone expecting sustained warmth before June needs to head south of DC

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now.

wasn't talking about mby specifically which has never been in the game

we’re not in the game.

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

latest from SPC Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

blessed