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And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is at least a slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO look too.

The downside appears that those triggers are going to be all the things I like. Beef, sausage, spicy foods, etc.

ORH is very warm so far. +4.6F for the month. That number should tickle down a bit before any good warmth kicks in.

12z Euro still looks good -- an inch to inch and a half for most of the area. GFS misses to the south with the heavier rain while RGEM misses to the north. Who knows at this point, but even the areas that miss the heavier rain should still get some.

Yeah I think we warm up a bit late month and early July but then ridge retros west and we’ll cool off a bit. But cool in July hopefully means summer. Nino is flexing.

Great lineup with spoon and geese. Almost went.

Possibly a split situation? - A main area into NY state and another smaller area into south central PA into central NJ, with bupkis in between. Both maps are suggestive, and it's happened plenty of times before.

Someone doesnt know how to read i guess.. that wasnt what i thought at all

Good luck

Another gorgeous day. Winds blowing as usual. Hope it don't mess up the airshow today at Greenwood Lake Airport.

Your gonna awaken the "Blizz" with such dreadful language. Let us get through summer first.

Man over the past 2-3 days it seems like everyone's grass just gave up the ghost and is burned to a crisp. Ground is like concrete and cracking everywhere too.

Some people seem to enjoy making "donations" to their power supplier...

WB 12Z GFS, EURO, Can. And NBM (15Z).

Lots umbrellas flying at the beach today. Other then the wind it’s a 10/10 beach day. .

Ever seen Whiskey Treaty Roadshow?

Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record! IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important.

Fantastic weather for the Green River Festival. Usually we get downpours or blazing heat. War and Treaty and Charley Crockett were killer last night. Kurt Vile, Spoon, Lucius, Geese and so much more coming up the next two days!

Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:

Super super El furnace Nino says no threats next winter

All these days with stronger wind gusts continue dry things out. 2026 is currently in 2nd place for the highest average wind gust through June 19th behind 2025. So this dry and windy pattern has been very persistent the last few years.

I noticed that. Some models throw off a little shower, maybe even a thunderstorm this afternoon and then again tomorrow too

I believe they have had some pretty hot wx over that way already this summer, and even Antarctica had very mild winter wx, too, for a couple weeks. And yet the Arctic is staying colder than normal with a persistent LP over the pack based on DMI data over the last month or so. Interesting tid bits.