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NAM has UL and surface so disconnected....maybe someone gets an IVT, ha ha.

Despite the drought-like conditions, mud season never disappoints.

NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions.

I'll pass. I have spaghetti and meatballs tonight.

So sorry to hear! Hope you have a speedy and painless recovery!! And now that a thread has been started, the GFS can finally start to cave to the Euro at 12z

84 hr 12z nam is a weak 1006mb low sliding off the Carolina’s lol

Yeah Nam was way south but flaccid front end. Just need that to be better as depicted. Saturday looks decent around here.

Been there haha!

BTW - Did the NWS Disucssion get posted? Was well done with all the caveats and summed up well what the mets here have been saying! KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last 3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show significantly higher amounts. There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

NAM even kind of targets east facing slopes of the southern Greens and Berks with potential for accumulating snow with this

Plus. it’s a good teaching moment for what a terrible model looks like. Hope everyone has been taking notes. There will be test at the conclusion of winter. So study up for next Tuesday.

WB 12Z 12K NAM is a complete whiff. Weak low well off the coast.

Elliot page?

I missed it. But at least before that there was the Blizzard of 2022. OH RIGHT I MISSED THAT TOO. Well at least before that there was the Bomb of March 2018. YESSIR I MISSED THAT TOOOOOO. Again. I’m home 80%+ for Winter. And still this happens when I’m away, and what’s happening right now happens when I’m home. I’m going to be in NYC, but I guess the curse is I need to be far enough away in FL or LA.

Sim radars also showing a very convective look to the precipitation field tomorrow...makes sense given the steep lapse rates and weak elevated instability. Kind of reminds me of those awful spring days (even sometimes in the summer) when we get the hung up warm fronts and the day consists of clouds, periods of drizzle, and then spotty/brief heavier showers. But dealing with wintry precipitation types versus plain liquid

Gotta watch Saturday. Look at how deep the DGZ gets underneath that rapidly crashing H5 wave. Wouldn’t take much for someone to stack some fluffies if a little LL convergence sets up overhead. North shore might be in a good spot again…don’t expect norlun totals again but some enhancement is def possible.

Very true!! I'd love for the GFS to be right this time

Scooter and the cape getting more snow than anywhere in CT would be pretty funny, even if it’s only a couple inches

Because we are data freaks. Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow.

Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up. The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it.

If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ?

Nope

Epic 24 hr fail yesterday

WB 12Z 12K NAM looks different at HR 63 compared to 6Z. Not sure if it means anything good yet.

doggie doo?