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I keep looking at the NWS US map and shaking my head. Once NE gets winter storm watches, nearly two-thirds of the country will have watches or warnings because of this storm. And it goes on for at least several days. I haven't been this excited for winter weather in a long, long time.

why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ?

Rule of thumb: not in the bullseye, cry foul. I have a chance to see the most single-storm snowfall in my life so I am just sitting back and waiting Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

If you pound it into the ground to the 6" mark you'll enjoy watching a lot more!

And when I mention warmer it’s at the end but as I said earlier, It was the 06z euro and it only got as far as LI.

Kind of a mixed bag. Seemed colder with the initial thump, and a bit warmer along coast when the secondary got cranking.

Thanks was going off the MA forum analysis.

I'll reserve judgement until they put out the next one since that should cover the scope of the storm.

It’s unfounded panic because Pope has scared some people into thinking the primary low is eventually tracking over Albany.

Sunsets after 5:00 for the first time since Nov 1st today. We;ve gained 32 mins of total daylight from the solstice Sunrise slowly earlier at 7:14AM / Sunset : 5:02 PM

A significant winter storm begins toward midnight on Saturday night. Today should be our last relatively mild day for the rest of the month of January and into the start of February. Tomorrow we return to near normal temperatures with highs in the middle 30’s. An arctic cold front will cross the area later tomorrow afternoon temperatures will fall quickly to single digits above zero by midnight. Saturday will be very cold and breezy with highs only in the mid-teens. The snow arrives overnight and continues through at least 1pm on Sunday. By that point, most areas of Chester County could see between 6” to 8” of snow. At some point after that we should begin to see the snow mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain from SE to NW across the area This will cut into any additional potential snow accumulations. The final snow/sleet accumulation totals will depend on how fast this changeover occurs. Either way there will be plenty of snow and sleet accumulation. Unseasonably cold weather follows the storm with temperatures likely not rising above freezing for possibly at least the next 10 days.

Damnit, I needed G-47!

Good info and good balanced take. I’ll still look at the clown maps and dream, but great info for what is more likely (which isn’t bad at all)

NAMped?

06z was a bit warmer.

Thanks for the post-work relaxer idea Sunday night after I get home Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

A significant winter storm begins toward midnight on Saturday night. Today should be our last relatively mild day for the rest of the month of January and into the start of February. Tomorrow we return to near normal temperatures with highs in the middle 30’s. An arctic cold front will cross the area later tomorrow afternoon temperatures will fall quickly to single digits above zero by midnight. Saturday will be very cold and breezy with highs only in the mid-teens. The snow arrives overnight and continues through at least 1pm on Sunday. By that point, most areas of Chester County could see between 6” to 8” of snow. At some point after that we should begin to see the snow mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain from SE to NW across the area This will cut into any additional potential snow accumulations. The final snow/sleet accumulation totals will depend on how fast this changeover occurs. Either way there will be plenty of snow and sleet accumulation. Unseasonably cold weather follows the storm with temperatures likely not rising above freezing for possibly at least the next 10 days.

Wsw issued this am for Hamilton and the tier of counties just north of the river has 6-10" mentioned .... 4-8" for the tier above that, and id assume 6-10" for river counties as well.

I'm just gonna start calling it the "Gulf your Yermomma" and if anyone has an issue with it I'll say they're being disruptive and provocative.

I never understood those 50-75 miles north of me worrying about it. As of now, its purely a concern right along the coast/cape. Still a good hit regardless.

Looks colder and snowier to me than the OP. .

0.8" here, snowed really good for a bit, but the temps hovered at or even above freezing for a bit and it was quite windy. It felt sort of odd seeing the snow blowing around, I feel like every snowfall we have had this year had zero wind along with it....

Records: Highs: EWR: 62 (1954) NYC: 61 (1959) LGA: 57 (1973) JFK: 55 (1973) Lows: EWR: -1 (1984) NYC: 0 (1888) LGA: 5 (2005) JFK: 6 (2005) Historical: 1781: Great coastal storm sweeps New York/New England coasts. Several men-of-war sunk, causing problems for the British war effort. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1893: The minimum temperature for the date is +1°F. in Washington, D.C. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1904: An unusual estimated F4 tornado leveled the northern part of Moundville, Alabama, just after midnight, killing 37 people. The tornado reportedly had a phosphorescent glow. An engineer on a northbound Great Southern train saw the destruction right after it occurred and backed his train 12 miles in reverse to the town of Akron, where he sent a telegram for help. 1927: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1930: Illinois recorded its coldest temperature ever at Mt. Carroll (-35F). The reading would be tied during the winter of 1995-96, when the temperature plummeted to -35F at Elizabeth, IL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1936: One of the coldest windchill the Twin Cities has ever seen was -67 on this day with the new windchill formula (-87 with the old formula). The temperature was -34 with a wind speed of 20mph. All traffic in the Twin Cities was severely hampered and a number offatalities were caused by the cold. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1937: Low of 9 degrees above zero in Las Vegas froze many pipes. Schools had trouble keeping warm, and coal was in short supply in the city. January 1937 was the coldest month on record for Las Vegas, with an average temperature of 31.2 degrees, 17.5 degrees below normal. 1940: Four days of lake effect snow squalls came to an end at Watertown, NY where 69 inches fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1943 - Chinook winds during the early morning hours caused the temperature at Spearfish SD to rise from 4 below zero to 45 above in just two minutes, the most dramatic temperature rise in world weather records. An hour and a half later the mercury plunged from 54 above to 4 below zero in twenty-seven minutes. (David Ludlum) 1948: On this date through the 26th, the longest period of snowfall on record occurred in downtown Denver, CO at 92 hours and 3 minutes as 13.6 inches fell. At the former Stapleton Airport, 19 inches of snow fell making it the heaviest snow in January. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1961: Coventry, CT had a minimum temperature of -32 °F today and the record for CT is -37 °F on 2-16-1943 (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)(Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt) 1982: Minneapolis had two great snow storms in succession: 17.1 inches of snow fell on the 20th and 19.9 inches on the 22nd and 23rd; these produce new 24 hours single storm records. Also 38 inches of snow depth on the ground and 44 inches total depth for the month, set all-time records. (David Ludlum, p.9) Boulder, CO recorded a wind gust to an incredible 150 mph! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Very cold maximum 29° Minimum was -2° at Bren Mar Weather Station near west Alexandria, VA (Annandale Weather Records) 1984: Arctic high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic brought extreme cold. All-Time record lows were tied or set at: Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: -18°, Baltimore, MD: -7°-Tied (2/9/1924 & 2/10/1899), Islip, NY: -7°-Tied and Bridgeport, CT: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported January record lows included: Concord, NH: -33°, Wilmington, DE: -14°-Tied and Philadelphia, PA: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Caribou, ME: -27°, Elkins, WV: -23°, Charleston, WV: -10°, Harrisburg, PA: -9°, Roanoke, VA: 2°,Wallops Island, VA: 9 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: The Virginia Minimum Temperature Record was -30°F at Mt. Lake Biology Station near Blacksburg, VA(Ref.Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt) Jan 20-22, An arctic cold front swept across the state ushering in extreme cold and high winds. Wind chill temperatures plunged well below zero. Winds knocked out power compounding the effects of the cold. Pipes froze and burst. Fresh snow of 4 inches with the front helped temperatures across the entire state fall below zero. New records were set at several locations in the south including Roanoke with -11°F and Norfolk with -3°F. Cable television lines were damaged by shrinkage caused by the extreme cold. Click this link to see a Map of the lowest minimum temperatures for each state. On January 22, Mountain Lake recorded the coldest temperature ever in Virginia ( -30 °F). (Ref. Virginia Wx. History) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1987 - A winter storm spread snow from central Mississippi through northern Georgia to New England. Up to 15 inches of snow fell across the heavily populated areas of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Traffic tie-ups nearly paralyzed the Washington D.C. area. Winds gusted to 76 mph at Chatham MA, and in Pennsylvania, snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at Dushore. Williamsport PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The nation was free of winter storms for a day, however, winds in southern California gusted to 80 mph in the Grapevine area of the Tehachapi Mountains, and winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies reached 100 mph in the Upper Yellowstone Valley of Montana. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Florida. Daytona Beach was drenched with 5.48 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a January record for that location, and winds at Titusville FL gusted to 63 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - It was a very tame and peaceful mid winter day. Mild weather prevailed across the nation, with rain and snow primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Warm weather continued in Florida. Highs of 83 degrees at Hollywood and 85 degrees at Miami were records for the date. (National Weather Summary) 1994: Arctic outbreak continues as DC records a record 4 consecutive days with lows below 10° January 18-21 (2 °F, -4 °F, 8 °F, 3 °F) (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) 1997: A major snowstorm hit northern California, dumping snow at the rate of two inches per hour on the Sierra Mountains. A six foot snowdrift trapped Amtrak's California Zephyr in Donner Pass, much like a similar storm had done in January 1952. Fortunately, the AMTRAK train was freed after just a few hours, not three days like the 1952 event. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: Amazingly only 5 hurt when an 880-yd-wide F3 tornado caused severe damage to a 5 block area of downtown Clarksville, TN. (The FEMA Director noted, " It’s like someone dropped a bomb on it. "). $72 million damage to commercial/residential structures by 4:15 a.m. storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2000 - A severe ice storm hit northern Georgia and portions of northwest South Carolina on January 22-23. Over half a million utility customers were without power during and after the storm, with the Atlanta area severely affected. 2005 - A major winter snowstorm, referred to as the Blizzard of 2005, affected the Northeastern United States. More than one foot of snow covered much of southern New England in the storm's aftermath, with well over two feet in some areas of Massachusetts. Strong winds created blizzard conditions with low visibilities and considerable blowing and drifting of snow. (NCDC) 2014: The third snowest winter on record in Chicago to date. (Januaru 22, 2014) (Ref.Frank Wachowski, NWS Archivesand WGN-TV Chicago, IL) 2016: January 21-23. A historic storm dumped heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to New England, including two feet or more from West Virginia to New York City, crippling transportation. The storm was blamed for 58 deaths and economic costs exceeding $1 billion. This was the most severe snowstorm to affect the Northeast since 1996 based on snowfall amounts and area covered. The last GFS Model run before the storm had 59.5 inches of snow in the forecast some of the highest number I have seen in forecast models. Also the Canadian model and the RGEM models showed tremendous snowfalls of the East Coast before the storm. The snow started at 1005 hours at Glen Allen as extremely small flakes but with in one hour the yard was getting white. At 1800 with 5.7 inches of snow at Glen Allen the snow started to change over into sleet which would continue for 9.5 hours. The last GFS Model run before the storm (Ref.NWS)

Let's pretend it's going to fo up the Hudson Valley and Temps will bounce from 0 to 50 on Sunday and back to 0 come Monday!

The V-day sleetfest (still my favorite sleet storm ever) had temps in the teens and low 20s and a storng high anchored upstate. A mid level warmth push can happen regardless of the surface depiction, happens here all the time.