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Just the other day I stumbled into a thread highlighted in a twitter post, in which people were asking for advice on whether they should call the animal services, 911, etc due to a neighbor 'leaving' their huskies out in the cold and snow. Consistent with what you guys are saying here, the replies were along the lines of 'huskies love the cold and snow, they probably insist on staying outside' They said that if it's cold and raining that's a different story, but if it's dry it's totally fine and the dogs love it. My faith in humanity ticked up a bit. and I was actually pleasantly surprised to see, that the people asking about it had the sense to ask first before calling the police.

It's a beyond terrible model, I don't even bother looking at it. Not saying we're getting a crippling ice storm, but it'll be disruptive to a few areas here I think.

Isn't the RRFS a very short range model? Better within 24hrs?

After 1.5" here yesterday it's 43 and will be a Brown Christmas as the winter wonderland yesterday is a distant memory.. Guidance busted horribly with temps.. Was a disaster this morning when it dropped to 31 unexpectedly now it's much warmer than guidance had 43 at 10am with the snow 99% gone..

RGEM with basically nothing south of the Mason Dixon line....

Latest RRFS still has heaviest snow south of most models

The 80’s are back baby. Everywhere gets snow but SNE…we odd man out. Just like it used to be.

New York City special 3-5”

Thanks Jerry, Happy Holidays to you and your family.

Very meh down here. Only 2.2", but just enough to guarantee a white xmas with at least 1" OTG tomorrow morning.

Losing The ace roll? Where have you been spanks? Lol…it’s wrong more than it’s right. It’s just another model.

Nam's drunk brother says congrats narrow band around philly

This is about as good a shot as you're getting in a pattern like this for 4 at NYC, thats for sure. I think this is mainly 3-5 or 3-6 with some places in banding seeing more but I'd be wary of going 5-8 or 6-10 with this as I see some mets doing, even if we get 12 or 13:1 which is possible for awhile but given the 750-850 layer probably approaches -1 or so, even in the prime accumulation locales we'll fall back closer to 10:1 even with SFC temps in the low 20s

Followup: As the quoted post showed, US pop weighted HDD rose sharply on the EPS from the 12/17 12Z run’s well BN 74 to the 12/22 (Mon) 0Z run’s NN 99 for 12/28-31, meaning a much colder change. What has happened on the EPS since that Mon run? - 12/28-31 has maintained 24 of that 25 HDD gain from 12/17 with it at 98 HDD - 1/1-4 has gone from a well BN 78 HDD in the 12/22 0Z run to a NN 101 on the 12/24 0Z run. And that’s even with the 12/24 0Z run not being as cold as the 12/23 12Z run’s 108 HDD! -So, just since a week ago, the EPS’ US pop weighted HDD have increased a whopping ~47 HDD just for the period 12/28-1/4 (from way BN to NN)! 12/24 0Z HDD run left side in purple: 12/22 0Z HDD run left side in purple 12/17 12Z HDD run left side in purple: look at how warm that run was compared to today’s! All days had BN to well BN HDDs:

Seems like the metro is in a good spot between the suppressed models and those further north

You forgot to use the sarcasm emoji.

Well he is expecting snow…so in that direction lol.

What a beautiful scene Jeff! Enjoy.

My crazy cat likes the snow

same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR

Models did really suck on thermals the last 2 snow events but for totally different reasons and also the bias was largely bad beyond 24-30. The first event the fact we had sun all day hurt us, the 2nd the SW flow is always something you have to account for and until the final 24 models overlooked how far DPs would rise. This time we have 23/6 and 28/8 as spreads when snow starts with a 010-030 wind. We are good even if we have a bit of a cool error at this range.

Crushes Philly this run

That’s going to be solid warmth streaming in out of the west-southwest aloft east-northeast at the surface gotta keep that NE flow CAD for this one or game over in regards to pure snow.

As expected, the 12z RRFS adjusted the precip. shield northeast towards model consensus, but it is (like the FV3) still very cold and suppressed compared to other guidance.

The RRFS has had severe suppression biases so far on every system I have used it for this season beyond 48-60. Its a bit concerning for sure, but once inside 48 its blown away the HRRR as far as thermal profiles...if anything its been a bit too warm but I'd rather that than the HRRR bias of always being 1-2C too cold aloft.