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There is a very weak wind shift right off the Texas coast per recon. Unclear if that’s enough for an upgrade but it might be.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity

Will just say that AI has been really promising with regard to tropical forecasting. Exceptional actually, imo.

What happened to the man I used to know? They’ll have a solid day later.

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

Definitely going to need those temps and even if we can push the dews into the lower 70's. LFC looks pretty high tomorrow so definitely going to need extra support

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Reverse jinx. THIS IS OUR MOMENT

It’s over for us up here.

I don't know. Keene always seems to get whacked .

Possibly. HRRR if you go with it would be essentially a moderate cancel. I’d downgrade if I were the SPC at this time

Possibly. HRRR if you go with it would be essentially a moderate cancel. I’d downgrade if I were the SPC at this time

With the exception of tomorrow temperatures over the next week should be near normal for late June with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Thursday will be our warmest day of the week along with a chance of some showers. Lows over the weekend will return to the comfortable 50's for most spots across the area. Shower chances increase by Sunday night and through Monday.

With the exception of tomorrow temperatures over the next week should be near normal for late June with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Thursday will be our warmest day of the week along with a chance of some showers. Lows over the weekend will return to the comfortable 50's for most spots across the area. Shower chances increase by Sunday night and through Monday.

Same with 3K NAM. Get me to 80+ and maybe we see something.

Yeah it's beyond horrible...good luck getting an update on a short term event even though there's an updated time stamp.

Stratiform rain dying overhead. At least my garden will be happy

I suspect this will end up designated as a subtropical storm.

I'll be happy if we get some thunder later just not loving the late September vibes outside rn

Would love for any of this moisture to be funneled up this way.

Looks like things have gotten off to a hot start. Midwest storms go brrrr

The new forecast discussion is horrible

12z HRRR a bit more intrigued with tomorrow

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection