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Continuing discussion and eventually observations/nowcast posts for the Monday severe weather event potential can go here. @WxUSAF or other mods please pin this thread if you get the chance. 15% TOR and 60% WIND are extremely rare in these parts. While I am not downplaying anything - I do think the appearance of 60% wind has a lot to do with the new SPC outlook methodology. Nonetheless, an active weather day tomorrow seems on tap. Usual failure modes still exist (stabilizing cloud cover or early day showers) The shear environment is pretty insane.

Ditty finally gets his siggy damaging wind event?

Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those negative departures are not actually cold

0Z NAM with a mini-Namming, showing 6”+ with the frontal passage of the big Midwest storm Monday afternoon. As you would expect, that backed off a little this morning Will still be interesting to see if that’s just a little white rain, or if there can be a period of accumulating snow.

NAM is still pretty wild with that LLJ…pushing 100kt at 925. It’s a little inverted on soundings, but we could be pushing 60/58 type air over the interior. Other models are a little more tame so the NAM is probably overdone. It’ll be interesting to see how much we can mix down. Getting those dews near 60° in March wouldn’t normally worry you about being inverted.

It's over for the co river Been over for a long time but this starts the death spiral

Ready for 1.5 to 2 inches (of rain) and an exciting dab

Imagine you booked an extremely expensive Hawaiian vaca and this is your weather

I'll get a separate thread started in a bit!

Temp right below freezing here at 31.5 Convective shower just moved through and woke me up with a nice burst of sleet

Better Image

4 of those winters were colder than normal in the northeast (88-89 the exception I believe) . Western ridge patterns?

Unfortunately, I stole it from someone who didn’t

Spc's new severe wind and tornado probability outlook.

The 03Z RAP gives 2-4 inches from the western Plateau to the Mountains. Valley areas included, even down into NE Alabama and NW Georgia.

New update from the Spc . A zone of moderate risk has been added. Its definitely not looking good fellas, and I don't know that things will de escalate, at least on paper so let's hope for a thermodynamic failure at the lowest levels because the crazy, kinematics seem pretty eminent. Full discussion is in the link below the map. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

That NAM run.

Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).

They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon. Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon. ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

The high end scenario is still very real. The fail scenario is still very real.

Oh