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Was in the streets in freeport this morning.

Give me this 500mb evolution all winter. West coast ridge, blocking in Greenland, trough over us...yea buddy.

Hopefully it goes west in Virginia. I don't need five effin' inches of rain.

I think there are so many aspects of the climate that have changed that it is almost impossible to predict what the result will be. So many variables.........

Without detailing, seemingly a no-brainer. Power outages will be the greatest impact.

Jessuss! You're a shoe in to take the Halloween contest.

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach.

I don't know...Last year certainly felt more nina to me with the way that late Feb blizzard tracked, and all the NS interference that resulted in the historic sleet bomb. But hey that's just my layman opinion...

this is just straight up trolling Boris. Well done young padawan !!

Nice convective blowup vicinity of developing low pressure as the sun starts to set over the Atlantic east of NC. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

a bit north of 12z but still loops it pretty far south 3K is further north

LLJ looks a bit more robust on the 18z NAM

The only difference is that was a lot more tropical in nature , but the high to the north is more potent, ergo the pressure difference will be the same, high-pressure placement will be key to “meh” to something a lot more significant, over the next day. The area of the low pressure’s location makes me wonder.

So last years Nina acted more like a Nino and so far this super Nino is acting like a Nina? Can't make this stuff up.

They only updated aviation section this afternoon. Updated forecast discussion hasn't been put online yet.

based purely historical stats, nov 5th.

they have an advisory up for all of LI and CT shoreline and NYC

Oh, snap. Dogfish released their WWS! (photo from FB)

Euro Op doubles down...holy smokes! Thats worst case scenario for S NJ right there with the prolonged onshore flow, full moon, and system retrograding to the West.

Okx forecast discussion still not buying into warnings for winds outside of possibly the twin forks

[emoji2357][emoji15] .

Taking a look at fall during higher-amplitude El Niño episodes... October temps have generally finished near to slightly below average, although there have been a few instances of well below average temperatures. Precip tends to finish near to below average, with one notably wet outlier. Snowfall also generally ends up near average, although average October snowfall is minimal to begin with. November has shown a stronger tendency toward cool conditions, with temps generally finishing a bit below to well below average. There is, however, one notable well above average outlier. Precip becomes much more variable in November, with outcomes ranging from below normal to well above normal precipitation. Snowfall follows a similarly mixed pattern, with a fairly wide range of outcomes, from below average to well above average. ...Normal/Average... Oct Temp: 54.0° Oct Precip: 3.43" Oct Snow: 0.2" Nov Temp: 41.3° Nov Precip: 2.42" Nov Snow: 1.8" ...2015... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 54.7° (+0.7°) Oct Precip: 2.23" (-1.02") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 44.6° (+3.3°) Nov Precip: 4.49" (+2.07") Nov Snow: 11.2" (+9.4") ...1997... (Fall - Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.1° (-0.9°) Oct Precip: 2.75" (-0.68") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 36.4° (-4.9°) Nov Precip: 1.46" (-0.96") Nov Snow: 3.3" (Missing Data) (+1.5") ...1991... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°) Oct Precip: 7.36" (+3.93") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 35.1° (-6.2°) Nov Precip: 3.59" (+1.17") Nov Snow: 1.2" (-0.6") ...1982... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°) Oct Precip: 1.88" (-1.55") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 39.1° (-2.2°) Nov Precip: 6.95" (+4.53") Nov Snow: 0.4" (-1.4") ...1972... (Fall - Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 50.2° (-3.8°) Oct Precip: 3.62" (+0.19") Oct Snow: 0.8" (+0.6") Nov Temp: 37.5° (-3.8°) Nov Precip: 3.18" (+0.76") Nov Snow: 5.5" (+3.7") ...1965... (Fall -Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 54.0° (0.0) Oct Precip: 1.06" (-2.37") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 42.0° (+0.7°) Nov Precip: 1.10" (-1.32") Nov Snow: 0.0" (-1.8") ...1957... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 52.0° (-2.0°) Oct Precip: 3.15" (-0.28") Oct Snow: 1.9" (+1.7") Nov Temp: 40.2° (-1.1°) Nov Precip: 2.72" (+0.30") Nov Snow: 0.5" (-1.3")