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I highlighted a colder risk for the last third of february this morning and gave reasons…low-medium confidence for now. I’m also a little too regionally biased/focused with this because even if the blocking pattern breaks down and a cutter pattern develops, i tend to be in a better spot being 300-400 miles west of I-95.

Snow depth 10" It's a glacier

Or mby with the NAM's 2.1"

I wonder if some of these guys on the long range discussion on here actually keep track of how many times they're right and wrong two weeks out . It's like every day people flip-flop and I'm not talking about them top 10 posters who know what they're doing I'm talking about others. It's kind of like people who predict football scores and stuff they never come back and say they're wrong lol

If S Wey gets 6”…yes

I think we get one more cold relative to average shot. Obviously not like what's coming this weekend, but serviceable for late season snow chances. In any case, I noticed some melting, a few bare areas on steeper south facing slopes driving home. We are getting to the end of the reasonable expectation for snow retention anyways if its a sunny day. Looking forward to the clipper and wind this weekend.

If Ray gets 3-5”, would he still be mad?

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

I said a month ago about how it can torch all it wants in April. Well if the metros can get enough snow this month to surpass climo then I can accept a March torch. It’ll have earned it in that scenario.

You forgot a completed SF-86. Fully vet everyone.

1-2" is the general idea for tomorrow. NBM mean is 1.4" at PIT and 1.1" at AGC with decent enough odds of >1" (70%+). Only takes 0.1" at 10:1 to get an inch, so we don't need a ton of moisture with even better ratios. Could be between 15:1 and 20:1, give or take. Latest NAM and GFS are both ~2" according to BUFKIT. Next weekend still a ways out. Nothing really interesting on the operationals. Cutters and other sheared-out messes. Ensembles have also lost a bit of the signal, so I think odds are against anything relevant for now. It will likely change.

Shitty ridge over Texas gives nothing any chance.

I have trouble buying that large swath of QPF.

Tracks

Gfs wild

Tyler, is this a good setup for Boone?

Max: 21 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface. Goofy Fucking System model.

Could be north of that

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold

wienermobile coming to delaware this weekend

I don't know. Looks like the SW is coming out instead of getting stuck but that doesn't mean it will be a good result lol. Also do I email my W2s to you?

You mean it changed, 152K

GfsAI has a storm for next Sunday. Looks snow to rain, then back to snow as low travels through N VA.