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  2. Damage In Tolland
    WTTE. They said 70’s thru mid July and blue
  3. vortexse93
    While I have not looked at anything for tomorrow in detail, it could be an under the radar type of day for those in northern AL into the TN Valley for a potential chase day. If I was closer and/or had the day off tomorrow, I would take the gamble to chase, but unfortunately, I am not in that position to chase for that setup. On the side note, would love to be in CO/NE/KS this week to chase landspouts given that the pattern for tomorrow looks to be favorable for it once again across that area, maybe one day I will see one. Date: 6/21/2026 @ 6:00 PM CDT
  4. Chinook
  5. Chrisrotary12
    Can we make it 4 for 4?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals.
  7. raindancewx
    The truth is you guys in the Northeast probably won't get too much snow. In your favor - 1) Very wet conditions are likely. 2) Some blocking is likely later on. Not in your favor - 1) -PDO is a negative PNA tendency. I expect PNA finishes positive in Nov-Mar, but not by much in a few of the periods. There won't be a whole of lot of shots at big nor'easters when it is cold. 2) -AMO trend pushes storms to the South. I had storms miss me (in the desert) in 2010-11, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2018-19 to the South - same applies in the Northeast. 3) Three cold winters in a row is rare for the Northeast, and should not be the expected outcome. 4) Sort of looks to me like a -WPO in the Fall which will build up cold in Canada, and then it gets warmed up and dispersed in winter when it flips later on.
  8. Chinook
    12 tornado reports in Illinois so far
  9. dendrite
    Only 0.03” here. Still one more cell trying to drop in from the NW. 3k and rufus dump up here
  10. MJO812
    Hes a troll
  11. MJO812
    Your track record predicting long range forecasting is atrocious. How did your winter forecast turn out last winter ?
  12. cyclone77
    2.17" so far. Nice soaker.
  13. Damage In Tolland
    You’ve gotten hit multiple times already
  14. backedgeapproaching
    More storms rolled through, cleared out nicely this evening for grill, steak and some beverages outside.
  15. Santa Claus
    i am humble enough to pay tribute to my betters
  16. Weather Will
    Can you pin this thread through Tuesday? Thanks!
  17. hawkeye_wx
    My rain total is 0.47", on the low end of guidance. This is about as awful as a June day can get. It feels like April. Let's get back to warm and humid with storms.
  18. rclab
    Stand up straight and mind the ticks. As always ….
  19. SJonesWX
    ya because the 0.1” of rain I got earlier was so satisfying
  20. WxUSAF
    It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think.
  21. Torchageddon
    ILC081-191-212300- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260621T2300Z/ Wayne IL-Jefferson IL- 522 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 522 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Bluford, or 11 miles northeast of Mount Vernon, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Just another day in Illinois, Intense to violent tornado ripping through. Wicked debris ball.
  22. raindancewx
    The best way to validate what will happen with this event is to find opposite conditions : Solar Max or Min (rather than mid-cycle) Strong east based La Nina in Summer that is colder (relatively) than Nino 4 Opposite IOD/AMO for Summer. Roll that year or blend of years forward and flip it. That should match the analogs. Haven't done that yet.
  23. rclab
    That will change, Santa, if you ever parole Will. As always …..
  24. Today
  25. IrishRob17
    Yesterday just added to the collection of sticks and branch tips with under 10 leaves.
  26. donsutherland1
    IMO, the big issue right now is the disagreement between the JAMSTEC (much cooler ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly) and other guidance e.g., ECMWF seasonal (similar or warmer Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly). We're in June. What is fairly certain is that a strong/super ENSO event is likely. In addition, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been running higher than the Region 3.4 anomaly into early June. Given the forecast strength of the ENSO, strong or persistent blocking would be helpful if one is looking to maximize wintry prospects. Whether this will be more like 1877-78, 1972-73, 1982-83, or 1997-98 remains to be seen, especially this far out.
  27. mcwx
    colorado.mp4
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