All Activity

if this does just go miller A I bet there will be some NW flow to soothe the wounds haha

At this time there's nothing to indicate this will join those in that truly special category.

No

You know...everything in reality ... literally reality itself ( not talking semantics or figurative) came into existance because of a dizzying array of constructive and destructive interferences on-going, all scales great and small, and the history of that conflict gives birth to whatever is observed in the moment. Creation of circumstance that lend to whatever weather is no different. Destructively interfere" is true after lag ... so, we are actually in phase 6's contribution spectrum... and phase 6 has this correlational according to CPC. Using temperature as proxy in the discussion, this doesn't strike me as supporting EC cyclogen? But you know, also, I'm not sure I'd qualify this system is an EC cyclone. It may be that the anomalous cold is in competition with this signal, and that is why we have a storm - this above is lifting back over so to speak. This thing is an southern ice storm/overrunning that surges NE. Looks to me like an overrunning/isentropic event with vague Miller A that really not moving in a typical M-A track...

I know its NYC but im a little surprised the numbers at that low. Kinda figured there would be some high numbers in the 1800s/early 1900s when it was less of a heat island

You don’t need long when you get hit with a hellacious front-end dump dropping [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]]-[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]] ratio snow on hard-frozen ground That WAA means serious business, probably going to see spots approaching [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]]” per hour at times . Pro

good point

Having lived around CLT (Highland Creek, Harrisburg, and Tega Cay) for 25 years, I have seen the same setup quite a few times at this point. If you are in CLT and want 100% snow, it probably won't happen- very low probability, even north of 85. If you like sleet. and lots of it- this is your storm; it will be the predominant p-type south of 40 down to a Chester/Union/Greenwood line. South of that, mostly ZR down to the coastal plain. The depth of cold air is extremely impressive for a CAD event; this has not deviated substantially on any of the models. Yes, a warm nose can and will wreak havoc on a pure snow event, but it is always a big feature in dammimg events- no way around it in most of these scenarios. However, if you have aome sort of frozen atw down to Wilmington and MB, and have a strong CAD signature going to NE Alabama, you are going to have high-impact winter storm from I-20 north. N Texas has different topo than the Carolinas, but the manner in which cold moves southward in an event like this is somewhat similar to a CAD event in our region (I grew up 20 min north of Dallas). Deeper cold layer the further north you go, shallower as you go south from the Red River. Backdoor front with NE winds during CAD is fairly similar to a blue norther with attendant instability and p-types as the cold filters in, especially with how the track of this low is modeled. So you have WSW almost down to Austin at this point- that is a much deeper layer of cold around Dallas (upper teens by late Saturday). Start as rain, then fr rain, then goes to a mix of frozen with predominantly sleet, and quite a bit of sleet from what I am seeing. Most likely the same scenario in and around CLT, as our modeled temps are pretty similar in this setup. Thinking maybe 2-3" of snow in CLT, 3-4" of sleet, and minimal freezing rain- sure, you can have freezing rain in the upper teens/low 20's here, but it isn't likely given the amount of cold air present. Biggest ZR amounts will be just north of 20 in SC over to outside of Wilmington. 40 north probably sees 6"+ snow totals, plus a good bit of sleet....prediction on my end is based on living in the region and having seen this setup several times a decade....it isn't all that common- especially with the magnitude of cold present Fwiw- metadata beats any probabilistic model 100% of the time (I have worked with probabilistic models for 20 years in health science and finance, as well as created them), simply because metadata has already occurred- so take a look at METARS totals from the DFW area starting Friday PM, and you will have a really great crystal ball as to what is going to play out in the Carolinas, at least around Charlotte. I wouldn't hold much stock in any model run this far out, outside of the overall probabilitstic signal (major CAD/winter storm for the region)- there will be some major fluctuations- lot of noise, wo specifics....L/T AI will generally improve predictive value on the majors, but it has to learn first. Also a testament to how fantastically bad some of these models actually are to start out with- when you have almost unlimited computational power, much of what you are seeing in terms of run to run discrepancy should have already been smoothed out by now to some extent. I have seen rapid smoothing and a huge increase in model robustness in industries with an even larger variable set and more complex scope of data, simply bc the existing models gave AI a much better starting point..... Good luck to everyone on this, and make sure your loved ones have access to heat and electricity/generator. Also have a gutter company on speed dial- a 5" gutter spike into fascia will not hold up with that amount of sleet/ice over a 25' run...I have been meaning to put up gutter guards for about a year- I think I will get the ladder out before Friday and get it done

I want the Bradford Pears budding in 2 weeks

2016 keeps being mentioned. i just looked. i recorded 33" for that. So yes please, sign me up

In some ways getting that much sleet would be awesome, and it other ways it would be incredibly depressing. Seeing the NAM model 8.2" of sleet is absolutely wild. Just an absolutely monster storm on the NAM.

Not surprised. It's all went from exhilarating to sickening.

The NAM is identical to the euro in the useful part of its range, which matters most, because the interaction with the Baja blast and the trough over Montana dictates everything downstream.

Could this be as big or bigger than the 1993 or 1996 storms? They were awesome!

the part i forgot: The trajectory of the WAA runs heavily north of the city, forming a finger-like stream of precip that stays north while the city stays dry for 12 hours

Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.

Yeah we could slam 10-15” alone from the overrunning if you push that north a bit more. But we’d def need a CCB type sig to get going if you want KU type totals over 20”.

Yea nobody would be upset with a foot that ends with a little sleet

We had a few houses that would give me and my friends 20 bucks to shovel in the early 90s.. it was great!

To be fair, the long range NAM is usually pretty strange.

You'll still see a nasty swath of ice on the southern flank of the storm regardless of where it ends up.

Feb 1-3 2021 was pretty cold. It was in the mid teens to low 20s for highs right before the storm with lows in the single digits to around zero. Jan 28,29,30 was 15F, 18F, and 21F at ORH for a high. Not this cold, but still pretty damn cold. I remember it being frigid before that storm.

For me, yes. Tired of sickness in this house.

My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though.

Yes! The dgex is back!