All Activity

No I can follow your argument. You are making an argument of incredularity, a common logical fallacy. You can't believe that NCEI could be right. The problem is you don't understand how adjustments are estimated. There is an easy explanation for your list of #. The 1946 and 48 moves are not the only station change at Coatesville. Other station changes occurred before 1948. Adjustments start at the present and work backwards. The most recent Coatesville 1SW data is from 1982. You have to start in 1982 and work back in time. To evaluate the adjustments you have to compare Coatesville to raw data from other stations. Station changes are identified when Coatesville doesn't match other regional stations. Coatesville results by themselves, as you have listed, don't provide any evidence about station adjustments.

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Does anyone speak cat to let mine know that she can’t go out today because I put down weed prevention? She’s taught me how to say, “I want to go outside!,” but I’m having trouble responding.

Wow, I totally missed that. I'll have to read some more into it. I wonder if this CORe is just a more improved dataset?

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Interesting breakdown of the early 2026 anomalies, especially the regional contrasts across North America and Europe. It highlights how short-term cooling pockets can still exist within an overall warm global trend. It will be important to see how ENSO conditions and ocean heat content influence the rest of the year’s temperature progression.

what site can you pull that from? Are you able to choose our own climatology periods or does it provide a list? I've used this https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/ You can create your own climatology period by subtracting from dataset two and using the years to subtract. I really like this because say I wanted to look at 1974...it's nice to see how 1974 compared to the 1941-1970 climo instead of just to the current climo (and even better because you can do both and see where the greatest changes have occurred)

What is likely going to be a much warmer than normal April is underway. Can see monthly departures of +3.5 to +4.0 by the time April finishes. Sure hope we can get some rain mid to late month because stream and river flow at least over NW NJ from what I have seen is very low. Not much rainfall in sight next 7-10 days. With the warming and dry conditions coming up fire danger is going to elevate quickly. The short term dryness has eased over the last 6 weeks but long term dryness remains. Early call from me is a warmer summer (JJA) with departures of 1.5 to 2.5 degrees for the season and normal to below normal rainfall overall. Of course local T-Storm activity can push some places to above normal. Overall though I am fully expecting a warmer and drier than normal summer season for most.

Yeah, that was announced awhile ago, but it looks like a new solution is being offered. Unsure if that is the entire motive/reason for making the move, but they announced this a month or so ago "...Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) ..."

Thanks. So we can realistically say super nino winters were: 1877-78, 1888-89, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16. None of these were fun winters, but some were certainly worse than others. Also, no surprise, each winter behaved differently with not just snowfall but more importantly temps. The worst snowfall of the lot (5th worst all-time) was 1965-66, but it was also the 3rd coldest of the lot, and the next worst snowfall (1957-58) was 2nd coldest. Period of record avg snowfall for Detroit is 40.9". The best winters of the lot were 1972-73, 1877-78, 2015-16 and the worst 1965-66, 1957-58, 1982-83. Of course, this is all just for kicks. I do not think we hit super nino. 1877-78: 43.4” 1888-89: 23.2” 1957-58: 18.0” 1965-66: 15.4” 1972-73: 45.0” 1982-83: 20.0” 1991-92: 43.2” 1997-98: 23.4” 2015-16: 35.3” 2023-24: 23.5”

was going to try and create a composite comparing March to 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020 climo but March 2026 not available yet on the reanalysis page. Also just found out that NCEP/NCAR R1 is being discontinued

These days I think are extremely underrated from a scientific aspect. There is something about watching the temps just absolutely sky rocket once mixing gets cranking. It's even more fun when you're in the sun because you can feel the science doing its thing. Love it

Today may challenge the diurnal recovery record in the unofficial nerdy Asperger contest...

Still looks like we're largely under the influence of high pressure on Sunday though...looks pretty dry. We increase mid-level moisture/clouds through the day. Perhaps some showers late in the day or moreso overnight but I hear soggy and I think rain most of the day

Versus 1951 to 2020 who picked these random years

Not a bad day today. At least it will be nice going into Hartford to see the shitty Wolf Pack play. Only reason I was going to go tonight was see Hagens play. Now I'm going to be stuck watching the awful Wolf Pack.

GFS maybe? a few showers around on that

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below. I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the entire world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm. Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way? I recall seeing March colder locally comparing to the whole country on a lot of days... In fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly". What we experienced may have technically been a warm anomaly, just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify. Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too. Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Quote

Looks like the heat coming is back next week with many of us, possibly hitting 90.

I hope the sun burns these clouds off this morning...

what an idiot ^

The fact you are on here indicates you have the same hobby or profession as I do! Plus tell me what you know about my life. family, economic position, happiness etc. - I bet you know nothing yet judge another person's existence as sad based on one's weather hobby/passion! I am pretty sure the sadest existence is one who criticizes another's existence or life without any deep knowledge of any aspects of that person's life. Be better!

I'm with drought guy @Albedoman though growing a bit concerned about the lack of rain in the forecast. April is typically one of our wettest months and the long range looks mostly warm and dry outside of a few brief frontal passages. No mud season this year.