All Activity

Trends from that mid January PT regime are probably most pertinent here.

here but some EPS members are good for even you... also some monster hits for Monday

For you or for SNE? We don’t need a 33 rainer

As previously noted regarding the February 15-28 period, what was fairly certain were: 1) Substantial warmup in the Plains States. 2) Brief cool shot to the Southwest and then a return of warmer conditions. The cool shot likely won't be sufficient to preclude Phoenix from experiencing its warmest winter on record. The period has commenced with widespread above to much above normal readings in the Plains States. Phoenix is virtually certain to experience its warmest winter on record. Only one case saw in its period of record (1896-2025) saw a sufficiently cold February 15-28 that would miss the record. Nothing remotely close to that case is on the latest guidance. It was also noted that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could hold the key to the overall outcome. The EPS and GEFS agree on the development of a WPO-, EPO+, PNA- pattern. During such patterns, conditions in the East tend to be much colder when the AO is negative than when it is positive. The latest AO forecast shows the AO returning to positive levels after a fairly short-lived dip to negative levels. The most recent ECMWF weeklies show a brief return to cooler conditions in parts of the East during February 23-March 2, but a return to above normal temperatures afterward unlike prior runs. The weeklies also show most of the CONUS experiencing above normal temperatures to start March. ECMWF Weeklies: The CFSv2, which was been showing above normal temperatures on a consistent basis, shows a warmer than normal first week of March. It's too soon to pronounce the end of Winter 2025-2026. There may yet be cold periods and snowfall, though the most severe cold is almost certainly in the behind us. But even if this latest guidance were to mark the end, many parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes Region had highlights that made this winter memorable, particularly sustained cold not seen for a decade or longer, long-lived snow cover, and from Philadelphia to Boston, a big snowstorm.

Kind of like January looked -PNA? Looks can be deceiving.

lots to like here IMO

Event 2:

Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively.

12z EPS slightly south for Wednesday compared to 6z

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

1st event (I-95 screw zone):

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

Euro has two events (I think, basing off 2m temps and precip). One for the 23rd (maybe 2-4"?) and one for March 1st-2nd (rain to snow?)

What isn’t easy to verify around here. lol

hoping for something in between

Be careful with "fools gold". I got into hot water last week with that term!!!! Consistency counts for something. This is the second run for AI liking next Sunday/Monday.

41 and drizzle. I am not minding the rain to flush the dirty snow piles away.

if some of that euro AI output is sleet it'll happen. We do sleet very well in the MA.

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances. The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

More wind charts Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for us to get a snowstorm!" But seriously, I still kinda have hope for that general period around the 24th. The 12Z GFS looked craptastic for much of its run but even still showed some potential near that time. Earlier runs showed similar hints too.

Compromise works great!

It’s fool’s gold. We see it 8 days out all the time.

Well that clears things up