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Got a nice 1.50” here today. Already over 2” MTD.

i believe that his synopsis is tailored to Hampshire and Franklin Counties. As far as the Springield -Holyoke -Chicopee area the forecast temperatures he puts up are on the low side to say the least. I find Western Mass News and CH 22 news to be far more accurate. That's understandable since he lives there but as far as Hampden County goes he's too low on the Daily high's.

The mei came in at the highest on record for june july at 2.41 just ahead of 1997 which had a june july value of 2.27 To me the coupling of this nino has almost gone under the radar

Yes it is highly likely we see convection in the far epac during winter provided it stays as warm there as 1997/1982 the real question is when we see that convection bc sst there rise throught the winter so by mar you actually dont need to high of a ssta to get convection If you look at olr ( which is a measurment of the amount of longwave radation escaping earth negative values indicate cold tall clouds bc those block olr and thus olr can be used as a measure for deep convection) in 1997 we didnt get it till nov/dec ( depends bc nov had most of the convection slightly n of the eq in the far epac but some was on the eq dec was more uniform to the eq) while in 1982 it didnt really happen til dec/ jan and even then its a weaker signal although still there likely weaker bc it was slightly less east based then 1997

seems like it's falling apart

Just caught the tail end of it as I was pulling into my driveway.

Did some posts just go “poof”?

That with rain or without cause holy hell Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Sunset alert, beautiful orange and pink sky!

Today's Highs (coolest of the next 7) PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 87 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 EWR: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 BLM: 81

I think you're both right. The SST PDO is a reflection of a propensity of the atmosphere to favor that state. Whether that is positive or negative. There are also far longer term oscillations known, such as the IPO. Which can have a period of 40-60 years. I personally believe the IPO explains the long term negative period we have witnessed. There are also short term (+PDO) events within a long term -IPO, and vice versa. Although they are shorter lived than they otherwise would be when they oppose the IPO. With the + or - phase dominant over that entire period depending on the IPO. We are currently in a negative phase. We have been since the late 1990's. For one reason or another, the atmosphere has been predisposed towards -PDO thanks to that. I actually think this explains quite well a year like 23-24(-IPO). Where you can get an el nino with a -PDO. Or on the flip side, a year like 95-96(+IPO). Where you can get a la nina with a +PDO. The EOF of a +IPO is posted below followed by a few studies. Pay extra attention to the second one, as it relates to the North Pacific. Powerful enso events have the potential to flip the Pacific. As the la nina following 97-98 is attributed to beginning this current negative IPO phase. So we're closing in on 30 years now. In this context, I find an inbound record breaking el nino all the more interesting. There's a shot at flipping the longer term Pacific to something more like the following EOF. Instead of the opposite, which we've become accustomed to. The record wildfires in Australia several years ago also may have acted to extend this negative period beyond what it otherwise would have been. By driving the triple dip la nina of the 2020's. In fact it's been postulated that had those fires not happened. 2015-16 likely would have begun the transition to +IPO. The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x "Since 1920, there are two warm (1924–1944 and 1977–1998) and two cold (1945–1976 and 1999–present) IPO phases, whose change is associated with abrupt shifts in North Pacific sea level pressure (SLP) and contrasting anomaly patterns in T and P and atmospheric circulation over the eastern and western Pacific." Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07035-8 " While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO’s characteristics." The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05784-y "A long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations." 2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01204-8

Picked up .88" this evening. Pushing 17'' over the last 37 or 38 days.Only takes a couple tenths of rain to stand in the yard.

When it moistens me, everything is sweaty Dripping off my boobies, Mmm the way you dew me.

+1

I just enjoy reading that anyone who posts warmer than normal temps and ( more importantly, less snow) for this coming winter are immediately chastised by the snow flakes. The meltdowns get more intense as the year progresses.

Off topic but how about those Sawx? Durbin with a grand slam and then Duran goes back to back.

It's not my week. Sunday the axis of convection was too far west. Yesterday it was too far east. Today it was back west. Did manage 0.28" in three separate events today so not a total shut out. Things look hit or miss for the rest of the week.

Probably stays pretty cool under the bridge.

And you get to observe the weather

I thought this was an interesting plot I saw on X. Any thoughts on how far east actual convection will fire within the ENSO regions? Sure seems like it'll be further east than ever before. I was actually have a hard time getting a straight answer but at least for the Galapagos Island the average is highest at around 77F in Jan-Mar. If it were to maintain a ~5C anomaly that would be 86F. One would think that would be enough. Did that happen in 97? Just trying to contextualize all this.

I don't mind extreme hhh but 90 with 70s dews is perfect summer