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The 0z Euro is much different w/ the Dec19-20 cold front potential. I think it likely wrong. The 6z AIFS has the cold front. It would not surprise me to see snow flurries or snow showers behind that front. If you watch the 6z GFS at 500, it makes sense. It pops a ridge in the East. It gets knocked down. The next ridge(chinook) pops further west. It gets knocked down. Each time the ridge goes up, it gets knocked down, and retrogrades westward. By the end of the run, it is a EPO ridge. Jax mentioned the atmospheric river. It may well be we are still in a base-cold pattern w/ the AR overwhelming the MJO signal which wouldn't be unprecedented (reference earlier discussion). As it retracts, that trough would slide right back into the East. I need to actually look at modeling in the Pac to see if that is happening. Interesingly, western Montana has had severe flooding when they should have had snow. Troy and Libby have lost several bridges in western Montana.

So it seems late December will be our next shot at snow. The MJO looks to be in the circle of death. I read in the NYC forum that there might be some blocking during that time frame. What else is needed for a classic winter storm, there is one piece missing…I believe it’s the PNA needs to be either positive or negative. Can someone help me out The MJO should be in phase eight, need a negative NAO for blocking and what else

Back to diffuse clippers traversing way north of SNE after the cutter

Just saw the Brown University suspect was released..

14f low

He makes stuff up on his own

Down to 10.8. .

13.5! Let’s do this again in Jan, preferably after 10 inches of snow.

Did twitter tell you that?

If you had any cajones, you would go for a walk this morning. Ha, just kidding. Currently 17 degrees here. BRRRRRR.

The 6z GFS is back to normal for Dec 19-29th after a warm run at 0z. Interestingly, the 0z run developed what appeared to be feedback over the PNW. When that occurs, the rest of the run is warm. When it doesn't occur...it is back and forth. For now, it looks like cold air masses will visit(24-48 hour duration) on the 19-20th, possibly the 22nd, possibly the 24th, and then too scrambled to even guess after that. In between the cool downs, there will be chinooks likely. I am really interested to see where this pattern settles after this transition timeframe. But the back and forth pattern might the the actual pattern for a few undetermined amount of weeks.

I saw an 8.8" measurement in NWS PIS (before lake effect), seemed kind of high to me. The wind and drifting made things difficult to measure. I had about 5" at midnight on Saturday based on some manner of averaging and trying to find a decent wind-protected spot. We probably got another 1.5" afterward. There were some decent rates, at times, but nothing like that 2020 event with 4"/hr.

7 down here at my project on the Cane River. 29 now at my house at 4360'. The river partially froze! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

The first half of the storm was on the wetter side. Ther second half was quite powdery. So it's highly unlikely that Central Park had a ratio of 5:1 or 6:1 which is basically slop. It could be that the high zookeeper or whoever it is measuring was scolded for measuring under a pine tree and was redone to be more accurate.

Hope they’re okay! 16 here this am. This December has been peak winter, which probably means we are cooked for the rest of the season lol

It looks like temps (not right by the river) are ranging rom 7-9F for my area of TRI. It is 8 at the airport. We had wind chills yesterday in the mid-single digits.

15.4. Pretty much bottomed out early and sat around there all night

Xmas Day is the ensembles one to watch

I'm waiting to hear back. The daily climate report and CF-6 showed 2.9". NOWdata, which goes into xmACIS, showed 4.4".

Walt, you always do a fantastic job. You are a living legend in this business and I hope you enjoy taking more time for home and family. Anything you can find time to post on here will be much appreciated. But I can understand you needing to focus on other things in life. I got my first internet connection and computer in January 1997. I quickly found that your AFDs were the best weather discussions going at the time. I didn’t know much about teleconnections or weather patterns in general. But I slowly learned by reading you rich and in depth discussions. When you first joined this forum, I almost couldn’t believe it. Just very grateful for you to have chosen our forum to share all your valuable knowledge. So wish you all the best of luck in your future endeavors.

16.0 F

Currently 8° here at the house. Definitely an impressive airmass for sure!

8 degrees this morning.

15 this morning. Still a lot of ice on open roadways exposed to the winds yesterday, I had to detour around a weather-related accident in Maytown on my way to work.

-SN at 1.7°