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Storms missed me by about 5 miles. Only got .03" today. Big cool down though. Went from 82 to 66 in a matter of a few hours.
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Euro only has .25-.30 river East for Thursday . Congrats west of River . Stein east
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Wheel of rhea Thursday and Friday eh?
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The whole 2m philosophy needs a make-over. It's abysmal. That over mixing thing is a separate error to the under-sold high temps that happen in the actual heat wave. It's like errors in both directions are true. weird. It seems... beyond the late short range the model mixing is over proficient... but as it comes into shorter vision, the model corrects but then it just assigns the sfc sigma as 1000 mb level and calls that the 2m. There's a new error anyway, world over, having to do with this new phenomenon surrounding 'synergistic heat waves' - they exceed everything. We've talked about this in the past... There's been several between Iberian Penn as far N as London. Australia. Siberia... the steppe country near the Urals over the hills into Moscow. The Pacific NW... "sort of" 2012 in the lower OV - it tried to get in here but was cut off by a corrective derecho that pretty much undermind the ridge for everyone. These are a different thing altogether where nothing gets them right because they are literally synergistically created - like emergent properties where the temp just runs away beyond all convection means of forecasting, machine to man. I don't think there was very many this last year but it was a reasonably well-coupled cool ENSO mode so that maybe has some capping aspect. But oh gee, guess what ...we're heading into super dong.
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Surprised how widespread the frost was this morning. Drought concerns starting to creep into this area if we don’t get some rain soon.
- Today
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If it is not 1/4SM VV001 +SNFZFG, Scott be like "MEH!"
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"Worse after brief improvement" from the article. Yes, slight up and downs week-to-week. Why is this news? It is always oscillating like this. How is that any different than when it is wet and then "less wet" for a period? Taking about it constantly does not make it physically any worse of better, but they don't care. Anything to hype the negative. Today is the 12th day in a row w/ measurable precip in New England. 12z ECMWF now showing up to 3.5" for the upcoming slow-moving storm. All other global models show widespread 1-2" across the region. The point is taking snapshot week-to-week is excessive in this case. It's not like w/ are baking day after day w/ full sun and high evaporation rates.
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0.36" today. Most rain in one "event" since probably March. Chilly out there. Feels like a late October day. 52 I can see the clearing line to the west, so might get a bit of sun to end the day.
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Looks like the wonderful dry weather is back. No rain in sight for the next couple of weeks, add some 90's to that too.
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I still think you should be more than happy Weymouth got two 20"+ "white gold" events in one season this past winter. I bet that has not happened more than 10x in last 60-70 years in the immediate area. Let me put it this way, nothing even remotely close like this happened in the 80s. Scott used to get mad as a kid when he expected 4-8" fcst by WBZ on the "backlash" and he'd wake up next morning to sunny conditions! "I WANTED NO 'SKEWL' !!!" I had my share. I recall on NOAA Wx Radio, NWS BOS would say "the storm failed to develop." This was a fcst like 24 hr out. Storms don't just "fail" like that in such short range. It was the stupid LFM model turning flat waves into 980 mb S+ events! It had so many problems w/ convective feedback. The NGM out by 1985 largely took care of his problem, but Scott still called it the "NO GOOD MODEL!"
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We got about .2 here. About 15 miles south of me there was around 1/2 inch.
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Full sun just popped out here. Should be a beautiful evening.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's strange how our human bodies work differently. The older I get, the more I despise the cold. When I was young, I didn't mind it, but as I got older I started to dislike it. Now I flat out hate it. If it's really cold, it can be downright painful, but in general, I just hate bundling up anymore, and love the freedom of a short sleeve shirt and shorts/jeans. As for the snow and ice, that's a trucking thing. If I worked inside and just had a to and from work commute, I'd probably somewhat like snow -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. -
I think its a combination of all three. Its been lingering there for a bit, we'll see it shrink towards late June
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Had light snow and graupel again today at 1,500ft. Dew points in the low to mid-20s have been quite effective at evaporationally cooling the cores of the showers.
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0.29 spread over several hours. I'll take it! (measurement from Mesonet 2 miles away)
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Hopefully we can lay down 2 to 3" of basin coverage from that nor'easter on Thursday ...
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https://www.masslive.com/news/2026/05/drought-conditions-in-mass-worsen-after-brief-improvement.html Not great news going into the dry season. Many ponds and reservoirs still kinda low I've noticed. Except in Baldwinville and Otter River......
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Man.. can't wait for this winter to finally be over -
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Frost advisory's and freeze warnings are out for tonight. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
F the heat! It’s why I left Texas. -
Finally ... a chart that agrees with your sentiment from earlier - nice !
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I've been posting a lot in the Sports threads. I've kept pretty quiet here as I realize that what I want is a lot different than most of you now that the winter crowd has left. I don't want to bring the group down by posting how great I feel every day it's cloudy, cool and damp or just cooler than normal. The older I get the more I despise the heat. It is the only reason my wife and I continue to live in PA. Otherwise we'd be living on the gulf coast of Florida.
