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Oh ok KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. A deep, digging, positively northern stream trough and its associated strong cold front dive out of the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. All of this creates a very complex severe weather setup across the region. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to include most of the area. However, it does come with some caveats, which I`ll reiterate here. Primary among them is the question of ongoing morning showers/convection, and the potential impact that could have no destabilization during the afternoon. As is typical, model guidance is very split on how much instability is able to recover ahead of the pre-frontal trough that will be the primary severe threat on the day. I do think that seeing the latest CAM guidance in favor of 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE being able to develop has me a bit more concerned. Assuming that we do get adequate CAPE, storms will fire along a pre-frontal trough during the early afternoon hours across eastern WV before moving east towards the metros during the evening. The environment where storms may develop will be impressive from a shear standpoint, with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, and substantial amounts of Storm Relative Helicity (150+ m2/s2 0-1km, and 400+ m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer). This is more than favorable for supercell structures to develop, with damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two not out of the question. Looking at the combination of shear and instability, the STP is actually pretty impressive in model guidance. For this reason, there is actually a CIG1 hatched area in our 2-5% tornado probabilities across western MD and into the Potomac Highlands. I wouldn`t even argue having with having that threat even extended a bit further east along the MD/PA border in a future update, but will let the 12z CAMs and machine learning guidance come in for evaluation. Additionally, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be threats with any storms that develop on Wednesday afternoon. At any rate, Wednesday afternoon/evening is a day to watch closely. Have your severe weather plans ready, in case you find yourself needing to act on them. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from our office, as well as the Storm Prediction Center, for the latest updates. Confidence drops off significantly with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of showers could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. Would expect this to be more along the lines of a gusty surge along the front (30-40 mph), followed by increased synoptic winds shortly thereafter.

31.8°

Stayed above freezing overnight. 34F. Bit o fog to burn off this AM.

Yesterday was very warm but dewless. Today we have both. KO coming for the pack.

Many of the big snow piles melted up here. Now large pieces of broken curbs are being exposed that were plowed up under the snow. So we are going to need new curbs and pothole repair since the roads are in very rough shape. Also big piles of mud where the snow was as chunks of lawns were caught up in the plows. Hopefully we can get some more rain this summer as the grass went brown pretty quick last summer with the record heat and lack of rainfall. Reservoirs got recharged a bit this winter as they dropped to low levels here at times since September 2024.

Low- mid 70’s today. The tanning will be intense

Good luck to all next door. All I can hope for is a stray pre frontal cap breaker in the late afternoon through evening. Think there will be more nighttime action than anyone desires. Gonna be 12 hours or so of twilight through the dark hours for a potential long tracker to run out ahead. Keep those weather radios and radars cranking. Only good thing is storm motion doesn't look to be typical early Spring speedsters. These will be full on SUPS hard anchored into the BL if/when they blow up before getting messy as they move East.

If isn't going to snow, may as well. I am really surprised March sucked...didn't expect that. The failed SSW in early February killed us.

In what way am I troll? Were you drunk posting last night?

Got up to 67 in Westfield yesterday, 31 now. I'd estimate 86.3725% of the pack remains... but getting very thin. We'll probably lose half of it today

51 here. Was great running in shorts and summer gear

And the first who first posted that way too far out crappy snow accumulation map would be the first to call out someone else as banter and pointless to post a map that far out if it showed no snow.

Crazy. Could be 90 tomorrow, and mid 20's beginning of next week. Definitely a possibility of damage to plants bloomed already. My Bermuda grass is already 80% green.

Yeah woke up to a lot of the high res stuff showing me get nuked today Love these days though, the anticipation. I’ll be outside from like noon on waiting for these storms to pop

Maybe on Sunday you’ll get another chance to enjoy Spring in Chicago

We might see some good storms tomorrow afternoon/evening...

Just think you have summer and dews now until 12/31 in NYC.

If RDU hits 90 tomorrow it will not only break the daily record, it would be the earliest 90 degree day in RDUs history. The average first 90 degree day for RDU is May 11, if that puts into perspective how impressive that would be. I’m not saying it will happen but with a forecast high of 87 it would not take much to come close

No blocking. Of course it's done

Tomorrow is a real threat to push 90 degrees in areas. My point click is showing 87. Record high for the date is 85. Today’s forecast shows 82, with the record to beat being 81. It is starting out cooler than forecast though, currently sitting at 51

Day 2 SLGT for all

70 today

winter? lol

Yep winters done Pack it in