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May see this on/off over parts of southeast thru weekend. Can use this also for some good info. NWS Greenville-Spartanburg Fire Weather Page

Need to the sun... WPC's analyzing the/or a warm boundary in mid PA/W NY. It may mix out and reposition NE, or it moves the distance. Either way, we have a ways to go before we get into any air mass latency. That means we're wholly dependent on the sun to recover from this 47 to 50 F blegh.

I was a bit underwhelmed awakening to cloudy and 45.

The Nino regions have been steadily warming over the years. So it takes a lower ONI departure in a modern climate to record the same actual SSTs. The atmospheric forcing responds to the actual SSTs especially when getting close to the threshold temperatures. This is why we had such a strong El Niño response with regard to the 500mb and ridge over Canada and the Northern States with record warmth back in 2023-2024 with a lower ONI than 1997-1998. The totality of the SST warmth from Nino 1+2 to Nino 4 extending west of the Dateline was among the highest ever recorded for the actual SSTs during an El Niño. ONI and RONI values for just 3.4 won’t always reflect this. The lower RONI values may have been a result the lack of a significant El Niño trough in the East and South and weaker Aleutian low than normal. So we didn’t need ONI or RONI values as strong as 1997-1998 or 2015-2016 to create similar effects. So if this event can max out at around 2.0° ONI or higher in Nino 3.4, then it possible it can have an effect closer to 2.3° to +2.5° in the old days especially with the Nino ridge and warmth to the north. The actual SSTs may be more important than the specific departures in measuring the actual magnitude necessary to initiate a strong El Niño atmospheric response. Nino 3.4 got to 28.57° during the early winter back in 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt NDJ 2023 28.57 2.06

And 2013-2014 was near record setting or record setting for many in the Midwest and doesn't even make their top 10. it is a completely differently place up there.

was just thinking the same thing In fact, the heat just kicked on But watch in about 3 hours or so we'll see rapid breaks and temperatures will soar.

If we don't start seeing some sky-lights opening in this pan - dimensional shit show on morning satellite I may be inclined to take the under on machine guidance. MET/MAV are still 68-73, and it is early ... so we'll see. Incidentally ... both are 78 to 84 tomorrow and Wed along the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT axis. actually, MET's 73 in NH on Wed.

QBO (30 mb) still has not updated for March! I don’t recall it ever taking nearly this long for any month, which has me a bit concerned: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Again, to be clear, im only doubting super at this point. It would be unheard of so close. Definitely a nino is coming. Super would not be fun, but we always get winter in the great lakes. Thats a great thing about living here. You're rescued in the worst case scenarios. Our climate is less feast/famine. One thing that im liking is the persistent of the eastern trough in recent years.

I don't see any reason imo why you'd need it any warmer then that. It's April and it's not even remotely cold outside. I have my thermostat set at 63. On days like these I have to open up the windows when it gets above 63 so I can warm the house up.

54 degrees and it looks like a few rain showers today. JNS if the house is 61 you shouldn’t need the air for a few days. I got a split installed in my bedroom. Definitely was a good move.

Long range models are moving toward more blocking during the last week of April. This was what happened following the mid-April record warmth back in 2023 during the developing El Nino. So it will be interesting to see if the models like the EPS continue with the blocking as we get closer in time since these week 2 forecasts aren’t always the most reliable.

ready to sbcape

So you want backdoor fronts that ruin things for days sometimes and funky 42 degree drizzle with 25mph E wind? How is that enjoyable in any way outside? We’re past when we’d be getting any snow.

perfect april week on tap

Summer of dews is approaching.

I noticed that too. Just all around troubling.

We pray it last all Summer

And why is that one brick out , just laying there ?

The fact that he would post it online is just mind boggling . Something is not right

You know, seeing as my Blues are out now, I REALLY would love a Caps/Pens first round series.

First of all no data is altered. That is a false, misleading claim on your part. The adjustments are merely a step in the climate data analysis process. They are never purported to be actual measurements. Second the adjustments make sense if you know how they are calculated and used. Plotting the data in your table shows that Coatesville and Morgantown do not agree at times on the year-to-year temperature changes. The largest discrepancy, roughly 2F, is between 1966 and 67. That is a clear sign of a major station change, probably at Morgantown. Congratulations you've identified another major COOP station change , The station change doesn't mean that the data is bad. Only that station change needs to be accounted for when estimating long-term temperature trends. Otherwise roughly 2F of bias will be introduced. Also note that a change between 1966 and 67 would trigger station adjustments in all the prior years. That's why you find so many large positive adjustments in the older West Chester, Phoenixville and Coatesville data. All of the stations experienced moves from warmer to cooler sites between 1946 and 1970.

I’m guessing for stat geeks you’re spot on. In my world, just enjoying the annual tug of winter to summer as it transitions. As they say; to each his own.

That pic is so disturbing.

I have everyone complaining how cold I have the house this morning but I call it prepping for this week. The ac goes on the minute the sun breaks out today. I currently have ambient temperature at 61 degrees inside Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk