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The 12z GEM manages a neutral tilt phase over the TN and OH valleys. I can't see surface maps yet on the 15h, but that might be a Miller B hybrid.

cmc is a strung out mess

We need a surface low to develop in the southeast. With offshore baroclinicity and low pressure over the Lakes, it won't work (e.g., GFS, ECM, and even now CMC). In this scenario, it's too late except for maybe EMA and Maine. A phrase between a northern stream shortwave embedded in the longwave trof and the southern US ULL would probably initiate the surface low that we need. But so far, only the ICON is showing this. ICON Progression:

GGEM ole’s us 2-3 times. Tantalizingly close.

Kind of for fun at this point and in fantasy land at 258, a piece of the TPV is now trapped under a HL block. It is losing latitude like it was dropped of a building. Could be a cold run for the GL and NE....glancing shot here.

Even 35 and rain on sat isn’t a pack destroyer and if we get the surface back Monday, I’d sign up in a heartbeat to get the Rainer/thaw out of the way. .

Right...the PDO is more a reflection of the antecedent pattern that can feedback somewhat if it persists long enough.

It has been some time since we have seen troughs this amplified on modeling. At 222, the GFS has a trough running from Anchorage to New Orleans. This one sucks the TPV into the pattern(we've talked about that potential), and creates quite a cold front(w/ snow) around the 17th. Again, not sure this second front is being modeled correctly if the mis-phase is an error on the 15th...but it is impressive nonetheless at 500. Either way, we have see modeling really keying on this time frame for strong amplification.

It’s one to watch. So close.

Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.

Darn, early on it looked better than 00z with energy dropping in farther W. .

Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)

Don't own a sled but the club trail runs about 1,800 feet thru our woodlot, passing within 450 feet of the house. On a weekend day there might be 30-40 sled passes, when the trails are in good shape. We can barely hear them from inside the house, though if I listen the buzz is easily heard. (Traffic on the paved road 2,000 feet away makes more noise.) Caveats: 1. Our town holds only about 1,500 people. Next town west, Farmington (county seat) has just over 5,000. 2. There's better sledding within a 30-minute drive. Probably most on our trail ride from their dooryard. 3. That 450-foot span is thick forest, though mostly hardwoods. Summer use is limited to a few walkers and a handful of 4-wheeler passes by club members doing maintenance.

Except in terms of the EMI.

That’s a snowy week ahead for NNE as modeled with some major upslope in there early in the week if it pans out. Would set the resorts up real well for MLK. .

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close.

GFS is pretty close to where you'd want it at this point. TW

Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.

the potential is there for the biggest storm thus far this year if all things go well. Is Walt around? Maybe he could give her insight?

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

Thus far, the 12z suite gives credence to a storm somewhere in the 1/15 to 1/17 time frame. It doesn't appear to be a cutter either, either it hits us or to our south. That's about all anyone should glean.

The 12z GFS avoids the westward trekking slp, and sends a consolidated and highly amplified trough in the East around the 17th. If the GFS is wrong w/ the system on the 15 and it is more amplified as I suspect it might be....the rest of the pattern would be more amplified. As is, the trailing trough being the 15th amplification will be every bit as imposing.

Weather world was the best back in the day. Abram’s, JB, Paul Knight, Fred Gadomiski(sp) and others it is nowhere close to that today. Tuned in every night and then on Fridays with the long range outlooks. Loved it! I had JB recognize me on WLBR radio at one point. The good ole days!

1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise.

Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff