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NAM enters the chat. .

Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check! .

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

Lol you must be fun at parties.

I am in fv and we did get 1/2 snow sleet before it turned to all rain!

Hey boss, is this travel truly mission critical?

Jan 23-2016. Only 10 years ago!! Just glad to see you guys are tracking a good one. May not be same type but it'll snow it seems.

^some backyard in Norrisville

Will start on my Synoptic Analysis Two post after we see how the GFS goes. In other news I meet with my microclimate professor who handed me a 500 page book of "Atmospheric Science an Introductory Survey by John Wallace and Peter Hobbs" to read before I might start doing research (was told to focus on the physics behind the storms as apparently "I learned meteorology from the weather forum" didn't cut it). Additionally, I apparently am being added to a group chat of grad students and professors who've been debating this storm.

Keep that away from the Boro please.

Yeah, I ended up with between nine and 10 inches .

I think the crippling ice storm following it is sitting on everyone’s minds taking the wind out the sails. Also the thought of the NAM driving that warm nose to the Virginia line after 3 hours is likely on everyone’s mind in this setup

Ya I raised an eyebrow at that part.

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general. There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years. However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

As someone said yesterday . They are down in the basement playing ping pong. They will wait till it’s over then say yep we called for this amount of snow. Can’t blame them. Been burned way too many times. I have the security guards watching for Lucy to make sure she does not swipe the football away.

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

That was a fun one and I remember the local weather stations were only calling for maybe 3-5 inches lol.

I hope not...Seymour got hoodwinked with ice. 2 miles from my house had 10"+ while it was raining at home. But, yes...yes it does.

Cold is one factor, but you also need good lift / omega in the DGZ when you are looking at the sounding to get an idea on ratios. You can assume we "should" do better than 10:1, like 12:1-14:1 but it's an average through the storm really. Don't get me wrong, looking at those snow maps is fun, I just think sometimes we see this big number on the Kuchera output and it's a setup for disappointment when NWS starts putting out official numbers etc. If it's ever going to be close though, being far from any potential warm layers is probably it's best bet. One other note, as we watch that energy crash onto the west coast, if it comes in at a higher latitude and or doesn't drift SE towards baha that gives it a better starting point. Just a thought, but if that could happen, and we get a faster ejection and phase, that could make a big difference for us. I'd really like to see all Allegheny in at least the .5 qpf range to really start thinking we might make 6+. EPS mean made a nice jump NW and the latest NBM looks a bit further NW as well with precip distribution.

The Grotesque Forecasting System uncaved

yeah there's an IVT sig on the op Euro... GGEM's actually spinning up a new cyclogen with that. both these models have more N/stream attempting to run up after the escaping low pressure, and it's helping to lower/expand back west as that's happening.

18z NBM still looks good. .