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I think he meant precip in general. Should do well with rain events to knock down any remaining deficits.

WB 6Z GFS and EURO rain for midweek.

Still no power in Marysville & PPL has no estimated time for restoration yet.

Plenty of ocean heat to be re-distributed, as ocean heat content increased at a rapid pace in the first quarter. The ocean as a whole is warming much faster now vs 97/98.

Set a new record 'warm minimum' for the date of 69.7 degrees, old mark was 69.0 degrees from both 2015 and 2013. Wow it is incredibly muggy/humid here this morning with partly cloudy skies, 72.9/69.0 degrees at 7:50 am. A small thundershower rolled thru here about 3 pm dropping 0.03" and winds gusted to 28 mph, that was relief for about 8 minutes until it cleared and the mugginess/heat returned.

The pattern from the winter is still in place, with long wave troughiness continuing in the northeast and frequent Canadian airmasses. Completely different from last year. We sent all the torch the Western Europe. Persistence ftw. This breaks once the fall EL Nino forcing kicks into high gear.

maybe it's behind us

Can’t recall a more boring summer in some time. No thunderstorms, one synoptic rain event sandwiched around Stein hands , a hot humid summer .. and pure boredom

In the Canadian forests

We need to see months of wetter condions to end the longer term drought. This is a nice start if we can build on it. So August will be important to see if this continues.

WOW you probably have more rain this month than I have for the year. Terrible drought continues here with no end in sight. Leaves are dropping now

Where's all the heat some were talking about?

^Liz Leitman issuing that outlook. She's an incredible forecaster.

With a raging east based El Nino? Don't hold your breath

This ends the drought

0.21" brings the month to exactly 1.00". Yesterday's gloomy clouds made for a high of only 63. With a low of 47, the mean was 11° BN. Looks like July 2026 won't set a new warmest month, though I expect it to finish AN (currently 2.7 AN).

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Huge COC today into tomorrow

Another opportunity for a soaking rain event Tuesday into Wednesday. A PRE-like feature could develop from the tropical system in the Gulf. Generally cooler conditions the rest of the month with a trough in the East. Possibly more rainfall chances during this period. So multiple stations are on track for their wettest month in a while. Then we wait and see what pattern emerges after this as we head into August.

This video has some really fascinating info on the geology of eastern Pa and the Susquahanna river. I had no idea that many of us were living on a piece of Africa that returned after the breakup of Pangaea or that the Little Atlas Mountains in Morocco and the Appalachian mountains were once the same chain.

Went back and got last years July total to compare to this July so far. July 2025 2.73” July TD 2026 7.76” I know that Frederick seems to be the rain magnet to some but it usually is the Northern part of the county that gets the big totals. The Southern part, especially the SW portion has hit the jackpot this summer though.

Not even .2 yesterday. The Stein rages on.

.68 rain yesterday.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

Stein and fail