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A big problem is even when we seem to get good PAC setups we can't seem to get a favorable orientation of the ridge so what looks to be a +PNA I don't think is a true +PNA and with the orientation of the ridging it just results in a dump of cold and a trough into the West and the result in pumping the heights up out east...big problem to have, especially when the SE ridge is still a prominent player. We would either need to get some blocking to flatten it a big or hope for an active northern stream and keep dampening the ridge a bit. But let's see what happens across eastern Russia and Asia over the week. Right now you have the PV on that side of the hemisphere and you have lobes breaking off it and ejecting across the NPAC within the East Asian jet stream. Late this weekend the Euro breaks off a piece and it looks like this piece is slated to be a big player in how the pattern evolves By Thursday you have a major ridge bridge to the north with the energy significantly stronger and forced to remain south with a lead wave ahead of it This really helps to pump up a ridge downstream and helps aid in the amplification of that lead shortwave across the Northwest and a subsequent significant increase in the heights out in the East. My point in all this is just too illustrate how fickle guidance be be in the evolution of a pattern just from one piece. If such a piece never breaks off or is not as strong as advertised...that completely changes the game. The northern hemispheric flow is way too chaotic right now...its like a nascar track with too many drivers...so many drivers trying to set their lane and pace the field but everyone is competing to do the same thing. This makes it nearly impossible to have any idea of what to expect, until you start to see how these players in the 48-72 hour forecast actually look at 48-72 hours.

When you go out to Dec. 6, you see that that the model is really struggling with the pattern. Some members torch; some members cold. So we are in wait mode....WB 12Z EPS

let it torch in early-december, IDC too much. just let it be cold mid-late december

Correct. Looks like a chilly Thanksgiving weekend with warmth on either side.

I think I'm looking for the same things you're looking for. I only commented on your posts for clarification because I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

It’s why I’m not sold on the massive SER in early Dec. the problem last winter and when in recent weeks when ensembles tried showing that was it was solely based on some type of huge cutter developing and pumping the ridge. But in fast flow even those have a hard time developing

The ensembles show our source region in Southeast Canada cold. We haven’t seen anything like that in years. I’m not looking for a KU pattern just something that often chances and I think this one will.

Am I missing something, or do the 12z Euro/ENS and GEFS just dump all the cold air out west and just torch the east coast.

None of those models had a trough coming in and a massive SE ridge. On the means anyways. I’m not losing sleep over op runs.

After day 13 or so temps cooled off with what looked like potential storm chances down the road. What are you looking for specifically?

Just think this is cute from the GEFS at 12z. After the PV discussion earlier. Now it shows up with a rather stout looking Scandinavian/Greenland dipole at the end of this run. Nice.

I voted 6th but 13th will work too.

Looking for a sneaky surprise that pops up under 48 hours…. Maybe .

not sure if this has been posted yet, but ....

Dealing with transient cold shots so it will be all about the timing.

Climo improves every day from now through end of year. And it's always easier to be hopeful about a future period past where the models can "see." But I'm not sure what you mean by "fine"... Not hopeless yes, but not very encouraging for wintry weather either. And not much different than the recent and forecasted mid-range "pattern". Strong ridge through the middle of the country with yet another trof entering the west coast.

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) has increased by about 20% over the last 20 years for 5 day lead times and nearly 30% for 7 day lead times. It has increased about 60% for 10 day leads!! Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is down by 23% at 5 day leads. These numbers are all from the GFS and ECMWF.

One of the best opening days in history. 85% of terrain off the FourRunner Quad open and fair game. Absolutely insane coverage too. All of this in the photos on natural snow. 59 trails, 258 acres. 50% of Stowe’s skiable terrain. And that’s only with 50” falling… can’t imagine what 93” would do

In case you dont have this you can look at Planetary and Equatorial Waves using the Euro Modes,ill shut up now

Let’s get the Mansfield stake down to 0”

EPS and EPS AIFS looked fine to me at the end after the cutter. I’ve been after the first week train anyways.

I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

The problem is it doesn't stop there but keeps shifting east. And the end of the run looks similar to the recent and current continental height field.