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NAM! Great to see the primary shift south. Sweet run! The sleet is usually north of where 3rd party graphics show it, so the 3km is probably closer to reality with that run. But it's huge to reverse the north/warming trend that it was showing for several runs! And this run introduces more lingering snows into Monday! Also saw last night's ICON - wow. RRFS also shifted south but yikes on the Euro. Could be a big gradient across CNJ or SENY. LFG

no guidance is totally reliable in the world of weather - they all have their flaws.....

Yes and no. It is somewhat elevation dependent as those due east of me with little elevation will have more sleet compared to folks at 1500-2000' around here. At least that is nearly always how it works out.

RGEM looks nice too starting at 36 hr.

Yeah, I know. Duke came in before Helene and upgraded everything on the main line including new poles. Brand new wire and brand new transformers. They been working the right of ways the past Month cutting back tree growth near the lake and the high tension lines coming over the mountains as well as feeder lines.

Who here remembers years past when we had multiple threads to differentiate the upcoming storms to decrease confusion? Exciting times! The "Good 'ole Days" for winter weather lovers!

Honestly think should have used the nw zone of Monroe Co for ice storm warning

Honestly thats bold at this juncture... my wife just asked and I said unless this trend stops today I don't know if we get any freaking snow. There's enough time left that if this trend doesn't stop we will be down to a dusting + a sleet bomb in the cities

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600- /O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Unicoi 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.

Me in Halls vs Knoxville is like I’m in a totally different county. I will not be surprised if my snow totals are closer to the counties to the north then south of me. .

Ice storm warning issued for kych if the area. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Greenville SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.8387&lon=-82.3716

As has been said before, I think we’re also seeing that subtle increase in QPF as we close in.

How well was that one modeled a day or two before? Was the amount of sleet a surprise?

4" of snow and sleet is still probably a good bar... I mean the 12k gets you 4" of sleet alone.

Really good look with this storm at this hour and latest trends. I also don’t think the qpf amounts are done moving higher. Watching for a slowing trend…

we want that shortwave to get stretched and shredded as it heads into the Tennessee Valley. If it maintains its integrity, it will result in stronger mid-level features which means more mid-level warming

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville, Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan, Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain, Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance, Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton, Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley, Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville, Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Any weather App is really only good for two things. Telling you what is happening right now, and giving you a vague idea about possible precip within the next two to three days. I see folks planning things a week out using them and ive stopped trying to show or tell them how messed up that is. No one understands that there isnt a team of PEOPLE working daily/hourly to update it. I've stopped pointing out to family and friends how different several apps can be for pretty much everything! Its actually not extremely difficult to learn a tiny bit about pressure systems and fronts and how they interact at different times of the year to do your own predicting in a general sense.

A lot of uncertainty still. I have the highest respect as a hobby person for meteorology, and the people trying to forecast this. This region this time of year is just level 10 out of 10 difficulty.

This seems reasonable and smart. The western side of the great valley is likely the area where cold won't scour easily so Ice Storm Warning makes sense, the mountain counties are still covered by WWA and northern areas with Storm Warning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

36 hrs til the first flakes

I know its unavoidable and unfair, but shit like this is exactly why the public makes "weathermen" the butt of so many jokes and thinks they over-hype the weather. These models really do seem to have gotten worse than they used to be. The public is out there right now being told to expect a foot of snow based on the NWS forecast... and the doubters and mockers are laughing saying that isn't going to happen and they're crazy... and sadly I now expect them to be right when we wake up Sunday morning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union- Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette, Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia, Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard, Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown, Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford, Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville, Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National, Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville, Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk Valley 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Looks like ICON is going to jump up our snow.

It’s loud, I can tell you that much. Have been through a couple. Friends at college went through VDay 2007 up in PA with 5+” of sleet. They said it sounded like a barrage of BB’s for hours on end hitting the house. Crazy