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This is not your typical "cold" ET storm evolution. The initial surface low development was S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line and by 25/18z, a small 582 closed thickness pool had formed over the low center (see ECMWF 12z 06 hr and 18z 03 hr forecast attached). This is a much higher thickness than what you would find in a typical strong ET storm development near 37N in late September in this region off the U.S. East Coast. A 582 thickness pool is what you commonly see on the global models over a mature hurricane, so I would be cautious here as this is an outlier case and conventional rules of thumb may not apply. This is why I mentioned in an earlier post that one needs to think outside the box here. Yes, I know that this mid-level warm pool alone does not make it even close to a ST system currently, but you have to admit this is unusually warm for initial strong baroclinic development and a high launching pad, relativity speaking. Nothing quite like this (at least in the last 50 yr) has occurred in September in this particular region when a strong ET low develops during the near peak climo of SSTs that are 2-4 C above average and the low meanders for days in the same region close to the coast. I attached the SSTs analysis and the approximate position of the surface low at 25/18z. It is over SSTs more than enough to support ST transition and is going nowhere fast the next 72 hr off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so I would not let one's guard down here. The closest analog is the Perfect Storm Oct-Nov 1991 and the hurricane that formed from it eventually, so such a scenario here is not unprecedented. If I recall correctly, a recon was flown into that system when the transition had occured and they found a 981 pressure and 88 kt FL winds.

Good! So much rain in Weymouth, it will "drown out" @CoastalWx's constant boring whining nonsense! LOL

Concerning the East Coast storm, I wanted to point out something I can not recall seeing in this region in Sep. This is not your typical "cold" ET storm evolution. The initial surface low development was S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line and by 25/18z, a small 582 closed thickness pool had formed over the low center (see ECMWF 12z 06 hr and 18z 03 hr forecast attached). This is a much higher thickness than what you would find in a typical strong ET storm development near 37N in late Se in this region off the U.S. East Coast. A 582 thickness pool is what you commonly see on the global models over a mature hurricane, so I would be cautious here as this is an outlier case and conventional rules of thumb may not apply. This is why I mentioned in an earlier post that one needs to think outside the box here. Yes, I know that this mid-level warm pool alone does not make it even close to a ST system currently, but you have to admit this is unusually warm for initial strong baroclinic development and a high launching pad, relativity speaking. Nothing quite like this (at least in the last 50 yr) has occurred in Sep in this particular region when a strong ET low develops during the near peak climo of SSTs that are 2-4 C above average and the low meanders for days in the same region close to the coast. I attached the SSTs analysis and the approximate position of the surface low at 25/18z. It is over SSTs more than enough to support ST transition and is going nowhere fast the next 72 hr off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so I would not let one's guard down here. The closest analog is the Perfect Storm ET low Oct-Nov 1991 and the hurricane that formed from it eventually, so such a scenario here is not unprecedented. A recon was flow into that system when the transition had occured and they found a 981 pressure and 88 kt FL winds.

FWIW, I was being sarcastic. The storm is still off of the Carolinas. It's taking absolutely forever to get up here. What we have now are the outer bands. The main event is tomorrow night.

Thats what alot of people are probably saying now. Smh.

I like seeing the banding and lightning showing up on radar.

Be safe everyone Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Whatta bummer.

I knew this storm wasn't a big deal.

I think you may be on to something

Euro popping a tremendous deluge in AEMAATT.

Euro also coming in north at 0z

Bust

I'm finally seeing 40s now

Going to bed. Down to 45 degrees.

HRRR gives us about a half inch of rain here from this batch moving in for the overnight into early tomorrow morning. Then it looks like just spotty showers for the afternoon. It has gotten pretty windy here with some gusts 30 to 40mph.

What do you mean out east? Numerous places on east end over 50 with montauk over 60. South shore beaches will see the worst wind

If anyone is wondering, has a HU ever been at Cat 5 strength 3 different times? Yes, Allen in Aug 1980 in the Atlantic. Classic Cabo Verde HU! Each time it peaked at Cat 5 (155, 165, 155 kt), it weakened in-between to a Cat 3. At the time, it was only the second Atlantic HU sub-900 mb (899). https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/35th-anniversary-of-hurricane-allen/ One of the most epic TC sat image ever -- see attachments (I recall being awed by this in college back in the day). Look at the size of it and perfect symmetry! Also, Ivan in 2004 in the Atlantic cycled up an down to Cat 5 3x. There may be 1 or 2 others in the Atlantic. I'm sure there are plenty of cases in the NWPAC given how that TC is for activity.