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So good. Welcome back, even if it was for one soul.

It was two storms ...otherwise, the same plight as y'all up there. Just two - I maintain my philosophical approach to this winter, that both are true. We were cold enough, most of the time.. We had snow on ground, most of the time, but, the winter under performed, relative to those environmental verifying circumstances - particularly the cold enough aspect. Know one's asking, but I feel pretty strongly that the pattern(s) required to sustain the cold, is the culprit for only two storms...otherwise, suppression reigns. I would be willing to venture the idea that any cold patterns are intrinsically limiting organized storm success. Basically ...the two we got punched through the limitations by other means - and I know what those were in each case. People of this particular social media engagement definitely don't want THIS explanation for why cold patterns are limiting snow. The background warming world is causing enhanced gradient --> anomalous basal flow velocities in the geostrophic ambiance. This occurs, whenever patterns attempts to dip the jets. It's a limiting factor. It's not a preclusive factor. Speed in the flow, out side of S/W spaces, lowers the absolute value of the d(vorticity) in the means. Lower d(PVA) results. What remains doesn't have enough time before the disturbance has moved off any given region. The Jan 25 overrunning on 'roids was a planetary correction event. It was really the only successful MJO wave signature penetrating the Americas I saw since ... a long while actually. The wholesale lower latitude mass fields surged N with an actual STJ response, and ran headlong into an imposing polar index scenario, on-going. At those scales, speed's easily overcome. It's there, but the whole thing isn't need jet responses in cyclone machinery/necessity... it's flop over isentropic lift. A very very large on. This recent blizzard actually saddle in a temporal window whence the flow relaxed. I noticed this the week prior to the event, that the GFS was bulging the PNA heights out west E, and the heights over the Gulf o Mex were 4-6 dm lower in that window, the preset velocities 30 to 35kt at mid levels. That's a receptive environment and when the trough arrived it was able to mechanize a bomb.

I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east

Many winters in the SE we have to contend with the SER. This winter has been much different. Yes it did show itself right around Christmas but the winter as a whole we have not seen the SER very much. Also it seams the maps show a blowtorch coming only to reverse or relaxes by the time the period gets here.

FYP

It really is like Hoth today. Everything is frozen solid

Models are cooking us in March. 70s widespread

Yes it has. Also, it won't be talked about much because it's a pretty meager event and we were never fully in the crosshairs but today was a pretty big miss by the GFS, one in which it didn't cave to the other models until inside of 24 hours. As far as Monday, I still feel pretty good about where we are. 0z GFS wasn't as far south and I don't put as much stock in the off-hour runs. Other models also still have varying degrees of support. WPC still has us in the heart of its precip map so that's good. Much to be determined the next couple days but isn't it fun when we're entering March and have to worry about Virginia and North Carolina stealing our snow haha.

how many years have you been a hobbyist ?

It’s almost definitely overdone but seeing mid-upper 80s in that march 7-13 timeframe is nuts. It’s not just a day too it’s like a week. Could definitely be an early season beach trip. Ridgemageddon

The entire month of February and we got 0 snow here. Not one measurable event. What a disaster of a winter for this area. Unmitigated disaster.

I’m trying to make my bet on Kalshi for when you flip from ACATT to AWATT. Do you have any insider tips?

That sounds pretty great to me. I still remember getting like a foot on March 21st in 2018.

This is officially drought relief rainfall today. Coupled with rain the last two weeks we have definitely started to put a dent in it

Yea odds are always low, we also may get MJO help as the month progresses. It would be pretty crazy if we go from a stretch of 70s early month to a March 20-25 major snowstorm lol.

Honestly you’re a good experiment for the mental health industry.

Same thing here.

I see it’s psycho analyze Kevin time of year. Everyone turns into Typhoon Tipfreud trying to understand how my psyche works

Late March snow would be fun! But that's probably just 40 degree rain lol.

Fake news. CPez said it didn’t happen.

Feels like spring this morning.. actually feels good after the relentless cold this winter

I am also ready for the torch. Once we hit March 1st, my enthusiasm for tracking is gone. This map looks great.