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You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope.

We made great progress at 12z and I liked the nams through 36. Let’s see what the jv models have vs the middle school model set.

I’ve used that model a couple times so my first thought was this is no way ready for the big leagues It needs to go back to AA ball for a year

Noting a hint of concern among members.

3k was pretty amped too.

18z NAM

FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.

That NAM run wasn’t great but we’re still 36hrs out and things are going to continue to fluctuate. Any further North and there’s going to be some serious ZR issues for Southern parts of the area. Even as is, the NAM has about a 30 mile swath of 0.10 to 0.20 more or less over 95 with closer to a half inch South of Philly and into DC.

The NAM looked similar for a while and then maybe showed its range. I remember it before some big storms it scared people. Just have to let the runs play out.

It’s usually correct too which is a concern

I’m more disappointed that it looks worse with the coastal portion Monday. Thats probably the difference between 12” and 18”

problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places

This is kinda noise level to me but might be IMBY bias - re: your post below, fair enough.

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

NAM is a warning to stay up later Sunday night and remove the accumulated snow from your driveway and sidewalks before the sleetfest and or freezing rain starts.

primary once again trying to stick its nose where it doesnt belong

As long as I get any color not in blue. I’m good.

I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. We’re also definitely getting sleet at least up to I-80 and maybe even up to the CT coast eventually, it’s just a matter of how big the initial thump is and how long it can hold back the sleet line.

That would be .7 as snow and. 7 as sleet. Would still be like 8 or 9 total since sleet will still add up

The NAM loves to punch warm air north on SWFEs, especially at this range.

I'd rather it look colder early on.

Dead in here. I guess we all jumped and died.

Cancelled school in Newport already for Monday. Hope this one doesn't disappoint for anyone, even if it would make me missing it more palatable.

NAM is good with thermals so can't throw it out-but if nothing else moves towards it-then I'd be skeptical