All Activity

agreed here. I discussed this several hours ago ... "The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. " add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

36/22

I think you’ll enjoy synoptic too! It isn’t really my thing so writing posts like yours is difficult. It makes sense in my head, but getting it onto paper isn’t something I’m good at. I look forward to more of your writing!

I see another SSW event is ahead in a couple of weeks. Let the model mayhem continue!

Winter traditions: canceling on Dec 1 sticking forks in storms before they start Crashing out over school delays 34.2/23. Lost 6 degrees in the last hour

Surface temps while a problem isn’t the biggest issue. The models have consistently had us dropping to near freezing but rising just enough as the precip arrives especially between 700 and 850mb for it to be rain

This is one of those times I’m glad I’m at the CT shoreline. No question about the precipitation mode here and no need to pull my remaining hair out over each model run. Good luck to all up north!

Forecasted low is 22... Temp down 4.5 degrees in the last hour Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Every time I saw that commercial I cracked up

When clouds come in 1-2 hours after dark, the radiation is not complete and we rise a couple of degrees. If it’s still fully clear like 7:30 then generally we stay steady when full clouds take over

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through. Rain/snow mix for the valley. Nice look.

Technically I will be getting a BS in env. sci. with a concentration in atmospheric studies as UVA doesn't offer a strict meteorology major so I'm not quite sure if it counts. Though a bonus is that I'm not required to know the actual math behind the forecasts so no extremely high level math or physics for me!

Yes but nam 3k had me at 36, so who knows. Once the clouds roll in, we may rebound a few degs

HRRR was one of the colder models, no?

34.7/24, wb 29.5. HRRR sounding has me at 38 at this time.

That’s not how it works lol.

CTP with a very detailed forecast here : SHORT TERM /3 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quick moving storm to bring the first widespread plowable snowfall of the season to central PA early Tuesday. The snow accumulation will result in travel impacts and disruptions for the Tuesday morning commute to work and school. Key Takeaways/Messages: *Snow onset 3-6AM window from west to east (give or take 1hr) with temps cold enough to support accumulation and deteriorating road conditions *Heaviest snow 5-10AM west to 7AM-12PM east with rates generally <1 in/hr (0.50-0.75" range) *Snow end time 10AM-2PM west to east; snow showers or flurries linger through the evening downwind of Lake Erie over the western Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands *Total snowfall in the 2-4/3-5" range for most of the area; exceptions are the far southeast (lower amounts 0.5-2") due to rain/wintry mix and the Coal region into the Poconos (higher amounts 4-6") *Sullivan County has the highest probability (50-70%) of localized snowfall >6" *Snow character will initially be on the dry side with temps in the 20s but trend wetter/slushy as temps rise near/above freezing by the early afternoon *No significant wind impacts expected with this system; winds will increase early Tuesday night with gusts up to 20 mph We are most confident in a widespread moderate to high end winter wx advisory scenario given the fast moving nature of the system. We anticipate the highest snowfall totals over the northeast to east-central quadrant of the CWA or to the east of US-15 and north of I-81/I-78. Any melted snow or slush will refreeze Tuesday night with low temps in the lower 20s.

I just noticed that you doubled your elevation at the new house compared to pit 2 in Maine. Congrats!

https://x.com/nypost/status/1995555955707117813?s=46

We just can’t buck this years long trend of fast flow northern stream dominance can we?

The never ending forecasting dilemma.

Clipper fest.. not sure if these are considered clippers but either way, let's keep it white till Christmas

Worcester Public closed. That’s a bit early I get it. Helps parents sort out child care etc. Also, my Wunderground app seems to be bringing in accumulating snow kind of early. Like 9AM. That seems off