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This is an excellent opportunity to consider the 'self-development process'. True, the upper levels (amplification) dictate what goes on at lower levels. Cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, etc. However whenever you can get an overabundance of sensible and diabatic heating into the system (i.e. over the Atlantic Gulf Stream), you can actually get the low-level dynamics to reform what happens aloft. In other words, accelerated amplification in the upper trough that isn't solely from exit region upper forcing upstream (i.e. DPVA). It's all about what the Atlantic can do for us. The Gulf Stream as well as those shelf waters. This would be a good time actually for positive SST anomalies.

Here, Euro Euro Euro. Come on boy! Come here!

“In it to win it” ringing in my head. Ain’t over till it over. 00z trends looking good.

Uh, we have seen positive trends on the GFS and on the Euro albeit baby steps. The ensembles have a left lean as well.

All solutions are still on the table. Models still not in agreement. Minor differences between them and with this delicate of a setup, minor differences matter

The UKMET does not even resemble the GFS/CMC/Euro over GA/SC really. Given thats only 84 or so hours out I'd tend to say toss it, the differences there to me are just pretty significant that it being the outlier in the deep south tells me its future ideas are off as well. I still would think the GEFS/GFS is probably too far west at this stage.

UK still positive tilt,neutral around 99-102 but better than 12z.Still playing catchip.

I'd even settle for a hold

Damn

About 20K people in ETX still remain without power tonight. Namely, Shelby & Nacogdoches counties, that have been "Ground Zero" for this 2026 ETX major ice storm. The outages jumped from 30K (early this morning), back up to near 40K. But those additional outages further south in Jasper county (and east) earlier today may have been unrelated.

Wait, how is that going to fall from the sky?

Chasing convection.

Thats an impressive shallow warm core 22mb pressure drop over like 50 miles.

It hasn't been agreeing

holy shit is my reaction regarding the GEFS

GFS take me home, to the place I belong

Looks great

2003 Jan storm kind of did this, had a precip maxima Foothills, NW Piedmont and then another precip maxima right along the coast.

GEFS not blinking

Since we’re talking football neither has he

All that matters is that the Euro comes back to what it had Sunday. Just need it to keep steadily improving each run.

Definitely.

UKMET way southeast

Hugging the GFS, ahh. That’s where we are. Yikes.

Ukie looks like 12z - hopefully Euro isn't in agreement .