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12z HRRR going wild in some spots

12z hrrr went drunk. wtf is that lol.

I am thankful for the 70's. I have all my windows upon and got my house temp down to low 70's. They haven't seen to make a dent in the power outages near me so I'm assuming it's pretty much a complete collapse. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out. Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right) Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

I can't wait for my 4th STW and warnings in a row that don't produce anything lol. .02 yesterday

You don't see 15"+ rainfall estimates very often. The island area took a beating last night. We could really use more rain here locally... heaviest rains have been hit or miss.

Loving the steady rains across Central NJ right now.

Good news: The 12z HRRR gives me >1" of rain. Bad news: The rain is supposed to be falling right now.

This graph shows the bump from yesterday's rain at Falls Lake before resuming the gradual drop:

65° sure feels nice.

Where'd that come from? Lol Just be happy with the 1-2C+ the Euro is showing for the NE and hope for warmer next time.

In Garner it was not measurable-sad

As I have been commenting on for a while now, these expansive marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can exert an influence on our weather and climate which is independent of ENSO. So at times the other marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can drive the sensible weather. Then at other intervals the ENSO can have a more direct effect. Still on other occasions there is an overlapping influence. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Easy forecast for my location: 0-3”

Don, what we feared is clearly materializing in the current ensemble means from all major source. This is what I saying a week or so ago, that this should be warned back then. This flow construct below is just as idealized, and it is also taking place closer to the climatological apex of the N.H. summer - altho the climate doesn't/shouldn't modulate discrete forecasts, but it does buffer doubt when considering the repeating aspect here - it's hard to knock consistency. UK and the Iberian Peninsula at under the gun again.

An aspect you doubter and/or deniers and/or skeptics may need to consider more closely is that H20 in the atmosphere requires heat to maintain vapor form. I'm reading a lot in here that is entirely temperature related, but global warming/climate change is vastly more complex. The temperature is but a smaller fractional evidence of the total global quota in additive heat. That heat in homogenized atmosphere is taken from the kinetic temperature ( which is the temperature on the thermometers). That means as more water evaporates into gaseous form, the temperature metric comes down. The metric that measures the amount of moisture in the air, the Dew Point, rises. This tells you that the heat must also be rising. This can be masked if one focuses on temperature alone. 110F/ 55 is, by thermodynamic physical laws, colder than 99/80. By a large amount in fact. The ambient water vapor in the atmosphere is corroborated across multiple disciplines, from direct empirical measure to eventually satellite spectroscopy, altogether altogether demonstrating the ambient planetary water vapor has risen since the IR. Where is it getting its heat required to do so? C02, and then secondarily other species like CH3/4 (Methane) ... etc, are added to the ambient global atmosphere. These enhance storage capacity i.e., more heat stored. This causes a positive feedback. It adds to the baselines green-house physics (1), but of more import this heat (2) in turn provides more heat to evaporate more moisture. This process is called thermodynamics of phase changes; when also involving multiple compounds in the arithmetic, the contributing roots to GW is non-linear. I would suggest remedial education into the physical processes involved. By understanding that, you might light bulb that attribution science is something you could and definitely should understand before you doubt.

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be.

Another nice day on tap with temps in the 70's. Lake breeze more E today will be less chilly than NE breezes.

We can only hope

July 6 1936: A high of 104 degrees is recorded at Minneapolis. For Monday, July 6, 2026 1893 - A violent tornado killed 71 persons on its forty-mile track across northwestern Iowa. Forty-nine persons were killed around Pomeroy, where eighty percent of the buildings were destroyed, with most leveled to the ground. Photos showed most of the town without a wall or tree left standing. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - A hailstorm at Potter, NE, produced a stone which was 5.5 inches in diameter, and seventeen inches in circumference, weighing a pound and a half. (David Ludlum) 1985 - Lightning struck a large transformer in Salt Lake County sending a 200 foot fireball into the air and blacking out almost the entire state for up to five hours. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Thunderstorm rains during the mid morning hours, and again during the evening, produced major flash-flooding at Leavenworth, KS. The official rainfall total was 10.37 inches, but unofficial totals exceeded twelve inches. At nearby Kansas City, the rainfall total of 5.08 inches was a daily record for July. (Storm Data) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in twenty-one states east of the Rockies, with severe weather reported in Kentucky and Indiana for the second day in a row. A thunderstorm produced more than five inches of rain in one hour near Reynolds, IL. Rochester, NY, was soaked with 3.25 inches, a record 24 hour total for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at International Falls, MN, and 101 degrees at Flint, MI, equalled all-time records. Highs of 96 degrees at Muskegon, MI, and 97 degrees at Buffalo, NY, were records for July. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Ten cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees. Hanksville, UT, reached 112 degrees, Bullhead City, AZ, hit 120 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, soared to 126 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 6 Mon International Kissing Day 6 Mon National Fried Chicken Day 6 Mon Capital City Day 6 Mon National Air Traffic Control Day 6 Mon National Patio Umbrella Day 6 Mon Take Your Webmaster to Lunch Day 6 Mon Umbrella Cover Day 6 Mon Virtually Hug a Virtual Assistant Day 6 Mon World Zoonoses Day 6 Mon National Hand Roll Day

This was the warmest July 1st through 4th across the region. Several locations came close to their all-time highs. Atlantic City tied their all-time high. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Warmest July 1st-4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 2002-07-04 86.6 0 3 1966-07-04 86.0 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 1901-07-04 84.6 0 - 1872-07-04 84.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 84.5 0 2 1966-07-04 82.1 0 3 2002-07-04 81.6 0 4 2018-07-04 81.3 0 - 1964-07-04 81.3 0 5 1955-07-04 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 86.1 0 2 2018-07-04 81.9 0 3 2002-07-04 81.4 0 4 1955-07-04 78.9 0 5 2013-07-04 78.1 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 1901-07-04 89.0 0 3 1898-07-04 85.6 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 2002-07-04 84.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 88.6 0 2 1966-07-04 87.8 0 3 2002-07-04 86.4 0 4 2018-07-04 85.8 0 5 1955-07-04 83.9 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-05 1 104.0 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ thermometer malfunction missed the 2010 max Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 106.0 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09

At least it will be easy to shovel.

Only about 0.95” here last night, missed the first storm and the second never really got especially heavy. still early but I’m having a little trouble seeing how the 3-4” forecasts would verify

Columbia imby: 1.41” for Sunday into early Monday morning. July total thru early today 1.61”. - compared to total for all June ‘26: 1.87”

The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying.