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50’s in late winter/early spring always hit differently than 50’s in late fall/early winter. the goods.

Waaaaaaay too early for a snowmap for this one

these are usually a little weenieish but take it FWIW

qpf will not be a issue the next couple weeks

Yeah, it's intentional. The main archive and the snowfall maps pages (and all extension pages e.g. early/late) are "only" 94/95-present. The Historic Snowstorms page is the one where im going to go back and fill in the major snowstorms prior to 1994. It's a work in progress.. I really haven't done much yet prior to 1994. I think there is only 7 storms so far from 1888-1994. Data really sucks once you go prior to the mid/late 90s. It's really just CO-OP and that's it.

Big signal for Monday.. half inch plus mean for 8 days out

It's raining in Chambersburg. Actually felt nice.

The sounding is from 6pm. This would have always had to start as rain with the boundary temps. But places NW of the fall line in MD definitely would have had 2-3” of snow if it was 50 years ago. Up here I might eke out 1” maybe and it could have been 3-4” if it was 2f colder.

Trends from that mid January PT regime are probably most pertinent here.

here but some EPS members are good for even you... also some monster hits for Monday

For you or for SNE? We don’t need a 33 rainer

As previously noted regarding the February 15-28 period, what was fairly certain were: 1) Substantial warmup in the Plains States. 2) Brief cool shot to the Southwest and then a return of warmer conditions. The cool shot likely won't be sufficient to preclude Phoenix from experiencing its warmest winter on record. The period has commenced with widespread above to much above normal readings in the Plains States. Phoenix is virtually certain to experience its warmest winter on record. Only one case saw in its period of record (1896-2025) saw a sufficiently cold February 15-28 that would miss the record. Nothing remotely close to that case is on the latest guidance. It was also noted that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could hold the key to the overall outcome. The EPS and GEFS agree on the development of a WPO-, EPO+, PNA- pattern. During such patterns, conditions in the East tend to be much colder when the AO is negative than when it is positive. The latest AO forecast shows the AO returning to positive levels after a fairly short-lived dip to negative levels. The most recent ECMWF weeklies show a brief return to cooler conditions in parts of the East during February 23-March 2, but a return to above normal temperatures afterward unlike prior runs. The weeklies also show most of the CONUS experiencing above normal temperatures to start March. ECMWF Weeklies: The CFSv2, which was been showing above normal temperatures on a consistent basis, shows a warmer than normal first week of March. It's too soon to pronounce the end of Winter 2025-2026. There may yet be cold periods and snowfall, though the most severe cold is almost certainly behind us. But even if this latest guidance were to mark the end, many parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes Region had highlights that made this winter memorable, particularly sustained cold not seen for a decade or longer, long-lived snow cover, and from Philadelphia to Boston, a big snowstorm.

Kind of like January looked -PNA? Looks can be deceiving.

lots to like here IMO

Event 2:

Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively.

12z EPS slightly south for Wednesday compared to 6z

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

1st event (I-95 screw zone):

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

Euro has two events (I think, basing off 2m temps and precip). One for the 23rd (maybe 2-4"?) and one for March 1st-2nd (rain to snow?)

What isn’t easy to verify around here. lol

hoping for something in between