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The mean convection will sit where it’s 30C, however the MJO will wobble it around a little. You can see here with the black outline how it can destructively and constructively interfere. MC is pretty much shut down here, but once it moves east of it, it can fire up areas slightly west or east of the 30C warm pool that’s just east of the dateline.

Pretty good call. Looking likely that snow will mix in or change over briefly late overnight into early morning. Could possibly see a trace...?

100% toss…for now. GDM is pretty bullish on a storm developing off the coast, it just doesn’t bring it anywhere close to us.

Tomorrow has got to be the last muggy day of the season right? I suspect dew point records to be smashed tomorrow.

0.18" storm total rain, anything more would be good in any form.

I didn't shift anything. Nor have I been in your debate, guy - merely made the observation that people have different ideas on the nature of what a existential threat is - time and imminence being a part of that. By the way, you are factually wrong much of the time and exceptionally hard headed in understanding why when it's explained in no uncertain terms... "- it has very much *not* been due to global warming; " garbage semantics. Climate-related die-offs are happening now. If you want to dodge acknowledgement by saying they’re not all caused by climate change alone that's elementary anyway, but doesn't work to abase the former. I also said the toxicity ( meaning pollution) plays a roll. Either way, this can and should all be under anthropomorphic activity. That's not 'goal posts', that's intelligence. But as far as temperature specifically, a clear current example is coral reefs: NOAA reports that the fourth global coral bleaching event affected about 84.4% of the world’s coral reef area with bleaching-level heat stress between January 2023 and September 2025. Plus, I spoke of diasporas in that, too - which is species migrations... which is evidentiary supporting the same notion. There's plenty of others, and I'm not going to do the petty low-brow game of citing them for you - go do the research. More broadly, warming and extreme weather are already affecting wildlife and this is just flat empirical fact. Habitat loss, disease, and other pressures are scienced and heavily papered.

To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.

...there's also a moral consideration... It's one thing to be a hunter, with a gun or arrow ... traipsing through the bush stalking stock for the winter. Not to sound too 'out there' but to for brevity, "Gaia" set that table of predator-prey relationship since the beginnings of life some billions of years ago. Obliviously swiping ecologies clean from a smoke stack 10,000 miles away ... I'll tell ya, at a minimum that's an interesting philosophy for the process of global Darwinism. you know? strong survive and so forth. It just seems, however, that's an overstep on "evolution's intent" - poetically... who deserves reprisal? How's that for a creepy prelude. haha Anyway, an "existential crisis" should include all species of the planetary system, not just human kind. Particularly considering ... the holistic system ..."Gaia" or whatever you wanna call it, has to be healthy if and when our technology can't keep up if/when our own adaptation rate is being tested. The world is experiencing a mass die off, and it is inextricably connected to CC. Anthropomorphic culpability in that die-off is, in a clinical sense, an incredible achievement by the machinery of Darwinian heh... It smacks of that stuff about how technological feedback creates a paradox, 'Evolution evolves the means to de-evolve the progenitor to the previous state'. Basically, tech makes survival easy; "easy" stops Darwinism; traits dissolve away because nature never holds onto attributes - entropy ensures decay. That's at least one plausible explanation for Fermi's Paradox right there. I'm sure there's more direct means ...like, species A can't survive their technological infancy before blowing themselves to kingdom come ... If we survive the dad's gun scenario, we have this slow cook Law of Lessening Returns. CC and the perils in store ... it reminds me of that "Star Trek: Next Generation" episode, "The Ensigns of Command". In that episode, a kind of xenophobic alien antagonist species known as "Sheliak" claim rights to a planetary system where several generations of colonist had adapted and were surviving - naturally ... not wanting to yield to the Sheliak's demand, the Sheliak would be willing to exterminate the vermin humans off the planet from orbit, having no compunctions in doing so... The colonist have technology, but they are/had been completely closed off from the Federation for over a hundred years, and therefore, had sort of devolved to this incredulous state ... implicit in the plot is that they can't see the Sheliak threat so they don't believe it in lieu of the majesty they can see, which is their achievement as a surviving colony. It's really as much as Sci Fi story exploring sociological aspects- fascinating. The resolution was, "Data" ( Brent Spiner), essentially a cyborg life form, was the only crew member that could withstand the "hyperonic" ( whatever that is/means) radiation the colonists themselves learned to adapt to, so he, being the less human of all human in the plot, is naturally charged with the responsibility of exposing these people, first hand, to the existential threat the Sheliak impose... things aren't going so well. He is even violently opposed to for his typical ingratiating uber polite methodical approach and efforts... But sympathizer and realist member of the colony restores him from a 'shut off' state, just in time, and he demos the Sheliak's ability, first hand, by destroying the aquaduct that feeds the colony by use of his modified phaser. Heh, everything in Start Trek is always solved by phasers or triquarters. Stunned by the power of what the phaser did, Data seizes the moment and tells them that the Sheliak will obliterate them from space, 'Without you ever having seen the faces of your annihilators'. I find all that strikingly metaphoric where just because humanity cannot real see, feel or sense the danger of CC directly, they are more than willing to deny the peril as being real.

Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.

39 degrees and rain. Reminds me of many a Maryland winter when it's puking snow 10 miles to my west.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

100% correct. The hockey stick chart and average lifespan chart, if laid on top of one another, nearly match, but yeah, we are going to die off because of C02 and all that came from the industrial revolution is going to kill us all.

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event.

Going to put this out there. I've always been a bit of a weather nerd (thus generally enjoying this site) - many in my family are (though just casual). I've generally had a big respect for the meteorology profession, and my son is in fact now starting college in meteorology. But I have to say - some of this is starting to make me lose a lot of respect for the profession; the disregard for solid scientific principles in favor of bending to the winds of societal fearmongering. I'm sure it's not true of a lot of people in the profession; hopefully not most. It's just dismaying to see how prevalent it is. </soapbox>

Total agreement.

You keep shifting around the goalposts, even in your own posts. What kind of "death" are you talking about here? Because each type is hugely different. When you're talking about "world destiny" (your original) words, are you talking about: Death of humanity? Death of a bunch of non-human species? Death of "the world" - encompassing all of the above (a literal wasteland)? Each of these is *massively* different in their proposed causes, timeframes, scales, etc. Your term "world destiny" certainly sounds like the first or the latter, not just the death of a few species. While there are certainly a lot of species dying off in recent years - it has very much *not* been due to global warming; it's generally been due to habitat removal; in particular things like overfishing and overhunting (generally under control now), and forest clearing due to harvesting, farming, and development (still ongoing; though improving somewhat). On the latter - it's worth noting the massive acreage of forests that will be need to be cleared (or not allowed to regrow) to meet solar farm proposals; e.g. the 277,000-acre proposal in VA. If you're talking death of humanity - I refer to my previous chart, among other hopefully obvious things. The use of fossil fuels very much *lessens* the level of human deaths, in many, many ways. If things like king tides in Miami are such a big danger - wouldn't one expect the number of annual deaths from natural disasters to be steadily rising - not falling? Why aren't we seeing news reports of all these deaths being caused by these king tides? That seems... mysterious.

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS. So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s.

High around 50 with rain today. Bring it, we need it.

October 15 1968: Unseasonably warm weather moves into central and southern Minnesota. The high was 85 in the Twin Cities. 1899: Heavy rain falls, with 3.2 inches in the St. Cloud area and 2.1 inches in Willmar. For Thursday, October 15, 2026 1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 15 Thu White Cane Safety Day 15 Thu National Grouch Day 15 Thu Global Handwashing Day 15 Thu National Mushroom Day 15 Thu International Day of Rural Women 15 Thu National Cheese Curd Day 15 Thu National Expense Report Day 15 Thu National Esthetician Day 15 Thu National Latino AIDS Awareness Day 15 Thu National Lemon Bar Day 15 Thu Pregnancy and Infant Loss Remembrance Day 15 Thu World Students’ Day 15 Thu HSA Day 15 Thu I Love Lucy Day

You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard. We shall find out. BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.