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Jesus...most deterministic guidance (I know) has about 1-2" of snowfall here through the 20th....if that were to ever happen, it's going to be exceedingly difficult to reach climo around here.

I gotta admit I was really getting spoiled in early Dec with snow and rumors of snow. it was a glorious late fall. Now that winter is really here it feels normal again...comfortable like a old shoe

Let's get it started! Valid Friday. Could be a bit forced, but a touch more instability would raise the ceiling.

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent. Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season. So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”. The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

"Great"? Let me know when the great begins for me as I must have missed the first round of great.

Starting off January with an average temp of 24.6 degrees, low max of 15 and high 36. I know it’s only a few days but interesting nonetheless. Cold start.

Actually, I'm in the coal region of PA in Schuylkill County. I venture over here to read analysis, but rarely post out of my sub forum. Generally, we're colder than you guys in the metro, but I live in a row where I'm insulated both left and right, so I only have two exposed walls, but the house is 110 years old, so not a lot of extra insulation. Still, I'm fairly happy with our oil consumption all things considered. It could be worse. The single home across the street from me sees an oil truck every month in the winter.

It looks like the gfs brings winter back towards the end of the run. Hopefully we can get some moisture. It's bone dry for January.

13° here. Looks like the last single digits and lower teens for an extended period.. I'll take it.

I’m a vampire, don’t judge!

A lot of the problems that existed all season was the reason they lost last night, even more than Loop. No pash rush, poor defensive secondary (especially without Hamilton), horrific O-line pass blocking, penalties, etc. They were who we thought they were.

Both of those were Swiss cheese storms on the maps...both haves and have nots...There was a storm before the big Feb 83 event in January that year that I think was pretty solid 195 N and W

6F here this morning

Aww thanks for thinking of me! Hope the snow chase went well!

Looks like a wedge fest through tomorrow, especially inland and NoP. However even metro Boston looks to stay pretty chilly.

Plow guy finally got to plowing the Woolly Lot. They sure waited long enough. He is plowing and this other person with a truck snow blower are on the job of clearing the Woolly Lot but there is a TON of snow on it. Its windy as all hell at 18 degrees. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

So that breaks down to less than 100 gallons per month annually. There are many ways to break it down, it seems that during the peak winter months you are burning 150 gallons per month, which is about 5 gallons per day. Without knowing the particulars of your house, this seems reasonable for heating a house on Li

Don't forget Western Mass...

I usually have to do four fillings on a 275 gallon tank per year. It's been generally been three in the colder months and one that carries me through summer. Most often the fill months are February, April, then October, December.

My mom who helped encourage my love of meteorology and all things weather related passed away on New years day unexpectedly. Tracking events is gonna feel a little bit emptier without being able to excitedly inform her about snowstorms or severe weather risks.

Everyone loves a good snow storm but the ice skating on the local ponds is outstanding right now even with the small layer of snow. I would love a good base of snow for xc skiing locally but give me good consistent cold for ice.

They need to extend Lamar and Zay Flowers in the offseason. I don't know how much cap room they have. Flowers his rookie year signed a contract for 4 years worth $14 million, which next season will be his last year on. And he's made the pro bowl twice. Nice draft pick!

I don't know, this looks kind of ugly to me in the mean. I think the only way those surface temps will verify is if we are right after a cold front, unless a few individual members are weighting the mean. Maybe those few outlier members will win and the Pacific ridge will trend more Polar? GEFS has more -WPO at 384hr so that's a little better. The ENSO subsurface is starting to warm with a kelvin wave, and I did research showing that, that actually correlates to more +PNA when the subsurface at -200m hits 180W. That should happen in the next few weeks.. Just using that favors less -pna and more +pna going into the extended, but that's just one method.

Stuck at 27.4 but that's 3 degrees colder than we were forecasted.