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The Jan 25 event is still in the GEFS mean. In fact it's stronger this run than last. It's a major QPF signal for 11 days out and has been for several runs. Obviously a tiny model change at initialization will propagate across the entire globe over 11 days to result in huge differences at the regional/synoptic scale.

Tick tick?

@NorthArlington101 storm is a cutter on the Euro

Actually, with the typical NW trend, which is in reality an unwinding of too far SE biases, you’re very much in this one. I think due to this and backed by climo, you have a better chance than us peeps way down in the Deep South of getting some of this. One never knows since every case is different, which makes forecasting discussions so interesting. Why is it so quiet in here? It’s not quiet at the other place. I guess most everyone here is sleeping? Or is almost everyone over there?

Mmmk. Live by the sword, die by the sword. If you want to count on AGW driving monthly anomalies, you also have to account for when a Feb 2021 happens. FWIW, I think a top 5 warmest January in the U.S. is highly unlikely. Just looking at the blocking in AK.

If I were in Raleigh up to Virginia Beach, I would be getting excited

I am not from the SNE or NNE, I live in south Texas now, for cryin out loud but I love this site so much! I'll be soaking it in a lot. Incredible, outright brobdingnagian effort! Man, someone needs to do this for the Mid Atlantic, but I am just too damn OLD.

Oh the classic hold back energy out west and I thought that was only a Euro thing.

Driving home from Statesville to Beech tomorrow afternoon. Could be an interesting drive coming into Boone and onward to Banner Elk. We will see.

ECM-AI is west of 18z with the SLP and sharper with the trof. It's a scraper now. Very consistent trends across guidance. That's a solid improvement. 18z was well offshore and barely had a discernible coastal SLP. 0z forms a low and tracks it east of the benchmark.

Happening all winter

Will the sun angle be a problem with this storm? LOL

@CAPE gets buried. 1-3" for the cities, he gets 4-6"

who could have possibly seen this coming

I agree the 1-3" characterization is better. But the event is not quite over for I-95 by 120hrs on the UK. But only a few hundredths of QPF after.

A bunch of us are booked for 7 springs Laurel Highlands

1-3", not 2-4".

Thanks, that’s getting ripe for the forum….drift baby

It's a juiced up low, precip maps are broken so lots of that rain is snow falling at 33-34.

0Z GEFS has had a large increase:

Let’s see it or it didn’t happen, never mind I see it, thanks

Euro should be good then, hopefully