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Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather AEMRIATT

Rough morning for this DOT station. Temp sensor blown into a tractor trailer diesel exhaust? https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=SD607&time=GMT

Heard a lone cicada on this morning's Jebwalk. Seems a little early in the season, so maybe he's just an early riser. Finished with 1.05" last evening. I'm sure most was just run off, but hopefully whatever the lawn was able to absorb will help it survive the week. 70F/DP 69F

My phones weather app doesn't have a single day at 100 or above for CLT now. (Yes I know its not accurate but hey Im trying to be positive lol) There is like 4 99 degree days in a row on there so not much difference but it beats the 103 and 104's that were being posted last week that I haven't really seen any of lately.

The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar: @PhiEaglesfan712

12z HRRR catching on to the 0z RRFS?

What winds can the radomes withstand before worrying about damage risk?

Some guidance suggest the first day of 90+ is actually tomorrow W-N of any s-breeze contamination. I feel some of the guidance is low balling by a couple of ticks overall. The Euro's inventing cu fields with transparent anvils ...enough to rob the top 3 or 4. With 590+ dm heights under a capping ridge (i.e. DVM offset) it seems that could wind up too liberal with cloud production. Little nuances like that. We'll see, but it wouldn't surprise me if 24 and 36 hours before each day in this Wed-Sat period, we see the polish on this return.

Updated relative weeklies: Midweek date……..1+2………3……..3.4……..4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

Our extreme heat watch goes into effect starting on Wednesday. The next couple of days will be close to average for the end of June. Most spots should reach the low 90's starting on Wednesday with the peak hot days being both Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 90's in most spots to near 100 in lower elevation valley locations. Storm chances increase a little on Independence Day and will help trim temperatures a little by the end of next weekend.

Our extreme heat watch goes into effect starting on Wednesday. The next couple of days will be close to average for the end of June. Most spots should reach the low 90's starting on Wednesday with the peak hot days being both Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 90's in most spots to near 100 in lower elevation valley locations. Storm chances increase a little on Independence Day and will help trim temperatures a little by the end of next weekend.

Threat of severe every day I'm working at BOX? Let's see if I can't get Kevin his tree topper.

75kt ripping through the ABR radome at the last scan

I work Utility and definitely not looking forward to Wednesday and Thursday. Glad to have Friday and the weekend off.

If you want to really suffer, I hope you’re baling hay. 1980. Worst summer of my life.

I think extra cloud cover from more open sea area and thus evaporation is a good candidate. But its also plausible it could be traced back to the same patterns driving the west Pacific warm pool/-PDO that has been dominant over most of this same period. Interesting to think about anyway. I am not totally sure we cool that area below 30C but it is possible. Perhaps more likely is if the area to the east is enough warmer, along with the circulation you mentioned, it can at least put a lid on convection near the MC. Then you'd at least have the dominant forcing away from 4-5-6.

Latest CFSv2 is more indicative of a basin-wide event. Have to keep an open mind here because I think basin-wide is def on the table (not just east-based).

This thing is like Pac man, just swallowing whatever is in its path (luckily probably not much). Thing seems to have a nasty RIJ

I deal more in persistence rather than whether something is permanent or not. Will let history decide in the future whether something that we have been experiencing turns out to be permanent or not. Agree with you 100% that the ridges have been getting stronger over time regardless of El Niño or La Niña. But all the record warmth we have experienced in the East since March has occurred as forcing crossed the Maritime Continent. This degree forcing there at times wasn’t present when we had cooler SSTs during earlier super El Niños like 1997. Recent studies have shown more persistent forcing there as the Indio-Pacific warm pool has continued to expand. This is also why our last 2 super El Niños in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 featured at least one winter month with forcing from the IO to WPAC which didn’t occur with past super El Niños also noted in recent papers. Forcing in those areas most of the time results in a ridge setting up over the East.

All misses down here this weekend. I could see the clouds off to the NW, but they never materialized into rain. It was pretty darn hot yesterday. My PWS peaked at 93.6 with a DP of 77. That calculates a heat index of 108. I'm confident that my PWS overestimates the DP consistently, but the point still stands: it's hot.

Can we try again this week?

Classic EWR arm pit KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/29/2026 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06 CLIMO X/N 88| 69 91| 72 101| 79 101| 79 102| 74 98| 74 94| 72 90 65 85

I was doing a little snooping on the Noaa weather site to see if its possible anyone gets close to 80 dewpoint. Wednesday afternoon has many in the high seventies with a threat of storms. Anyone who gets an afternoon storm, must walk out after and feel the jungle moister.

I'm working outside Thur. - Sun. at the farm. If I'm going to suffer, I want to suffer in rare conditions.