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@Birds~69 how you holding up with the Cecily Tynan retirement?

Don, your entire post 100% makes sense. Regardless, please post the August map if you get a chance. Even assuming one cooler than normal summer wouldn’t suddenly stabilize the glaciers, I want to see whether or not his supposed summer map is essentially a lie in itself. TIA. And on what the heck is he basing his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years?? Is this just made up out of thin air?

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming.

No stupid snow maps to post when it comes to tropical

How's this any different than winter snow chances?

In a few days, the August monthly anomaly will also be available on Copernicus. Even if the summer average were cooler than normal, it's worth pointing out that the toll taken on glaciers in a warming climate is cumulative. Glaciers don't reset automatically when things turn cooler. That's a point Bastardi either doesn't understand or chooses to ignore.

Its been nothing but "a, b, and c look good, good sign its strengthening" "Thunderstorms blossoming around the center....good sign it's strengthening" "Angle of the thunderstorms...good sign it's strengthening" "Compact storm, just needs to spin more...good sign it's strengthening" But yeah this probably finds some way to get TS winds for about 7 minutes before moving inland

There must be a reason why the same areas have been struck repeatedly. I’ll settle for a garden variety storm at this point

It’ll probably organize enough to get a name, but it’s still not there structurally. Hard to RI when you have no inner core. This would be 2/5 of my NS forecast. The next three need to be hurricanes.

Quite the temp gradient b/w NJ and CT upper 80's to 60's eastern half of CT

What are "preliminary reports?" Do they mean just radar warned tornadoes? Or are those actual confirmed tornadoes?

Never underestimate an EML in NW flow events.

Summer is waiting to return in time for Christmas

Twitter is so ridiculous with weather. Everyone trying so hard to justify why PTC 5 is going to strengthen and going nuts with how the convection looks, how because its a tight circulation so all it needs to do is increase its spin, and blah blah blah...meanwhile recon is extremely meh lol. Its literally been happening yesterday with people trying to will this to just take off

0.92" of rain from stms last night. A general 1" around the area from the complex. Still overcast this morning, and cool, but it's suppose to clear n warm up.

Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft.

August 31 1949: The earliest snowfall on record for Minnesota occurs on this date. A trace of snow is recorded at the new Duluth airport. 1947: A tornado hits Le Center, killing one person. For Monday, August 31, 2026 1886 - A magnitude 7.3 earthquake shook Charleston, South Carolina around 9:50 pm on this day. This earthquake is the most damaging quake to occur in the southeast United States. This earthquake caused 60 deaths and between 5 to 6 million dollars in damage to over 2,000 buildings in the southeastern United States. 1915 - The temperature at Bartlesville, OK, dipped to 38 degrees to establish a state record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) 1922 - An incredible hailstorm occurred near West Chester, PA dropped so much hail that fields were covered with up to two feet of drifted hail the next day. 1935 - The most intense hurricane to make landfall was a modest tropical depression on this day. Called the Labor Day Hurricane, this storm went through phenomenal intensification to become a Category 5 hurricane by September 2nd. 1954 - Hurricane Carol swept across eastern New England killing sixty persons and causing 450 million dollars damage. It was the first of three hurricanes to affect New England that year. (David Ludlum) 1971 - The low of 84 degrees and high of 108 degrees at Death Valley, CA, were the coolest of the month. The average daily high was 115.7 degrees that August, and the average daily low was 93.4 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Lightning ignited several forest fires in Montana, one of which burned through 100,000 acres of timber and grassland. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eight cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Eugene OR and Portland OR with afternoon highs of 102 degrees. The high of 102 degrees at Portland smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Frost was reported in South Dakota. Aberdeen SD established a record for the month of August with a morning low of 32 degrees, and Britton SD dipped to 31 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - August ended on a relatively mild and tranquil note for most of the nation. Forest fires in the northwestern U.S. scorched 180,000 acres of land during the last week of August. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front spread severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana through the course of the day and night. Thunderstorms in Minnesota produced baseball size hail near Saint Michael and Hutchinson, and drenched Moose Lake with nine inches of rain in six hours. Tucson AZ hit 100 degrees for a record 79th time in the year, surpassing a record established the previous year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 31 Mon World Distance Learning Day 31 Mon Eat Outside Day 31 Mon International Overdose Awareness Day 31 Mon International Day for People of African Descent 31 Mon Love Litigating Lawyers Day 31 Mon National Diatomaceous Earth Day 31 Mon National Matchmaker Day 31 Mon National South Carolina Day 31 Mon National Trail Mix Day 31 Mon National Zoo Awareness Day 31 Mon We Love Memoirs Day

Yesterday I took a trip up in RMNP to the Alpine visitor center at the top of Trail Ridge Road. I took the "back way" via the Old Fall River Road route, and it rained nearly the entire way. Once at the top, the temps plunged to the mid-30's with sleet and snow showers. When I made it back down to Estes Park, it was around 70 and sunny. I love this time of year .

Snowfall Facts for Old Forge Annual Average: ~177–180 inches per year. [1, 2] Heavy Snow Season: Total seasonal snowfall frequently tops 130 to over 400 inches depending on the year (for instance, over 490 inches was recorded in 1977).

But but but but all the "free"oil we got from Venezuela will bring gas prices down! * You would have better luck refining the dirt under my wood pile.

It would have to be moving fast to overcome cooler water-granted it's a bit warmer than usual right now