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I figure some of you will appreciate the obsessive anal-retentive details of snow reporting on Mansfield... Yesterday we had 1.75" or so that we called 2"... then it snowed a bit overnight... but was very windy and the grooming team thought several inches fell. The snow cam went off-line briefly around the time of the morning report and it was called 2" more overnight for a 24-hour total of 4". Snow cam came back and only had just over 3". Say 3.1" or 3.2". The early reports on the hill from skinners was 4-5". It actually looked good (photo from friend JA). However, once we got to High Road, we saw that was also a wind-blown 3" (barely, if you got level with the snowpack). The funny part is that folks on the hill thought at least 4" was a good number and were trying to talk us into it. However, the argument is if you have multiple source points saying 3".... maybe it is just 3". And we removed an inch from the snow report and Stowe seasonal total to reflect an accurate total, from 114" to 113" after considering the evidence. This hobby is like an OCD exhibit, ha. The good news is the snow depth is still stout and only compacted about 7” at the 3,000ft level.

The lol wasn’t enough to say I was joking?

Huh? The link to the NWS blend of models is the TOTAL snowfall out to 89 hours, which is Wednesday. Look at what it’s showing…that’s now till Wednesday, total. And the GEFS is in complete disagreement with its own operational run, that is fact and it’s a red flag

Ignore him Euro is further south but weaker

December is more or less going how I expected, although more extreme. It never really looked like some consistently super cold pattern. To me it always looked like a pretty cold start and then a much warmer push back. Most of the country may actually finish warm. Locally we've literally never seen temps over 65F from mid-Dec to mid-Jan, so this level of warmth is pretty historic here and definitely more than I expected. The Northwest is actually warmest relative to averages, which is not really consistent with -WPO, -PNA historically. It's just an ugly, unstable and volatile pattern. Record cold all month...oops My big theory theory is very simple: eventually La Nina Climatology kicks in. If you retain the cold in Canada, but add in the ridge over the Southeast in Jan and/or Feb and/or Mar, the cold will dump into the West eventually. Alaska and Western Canada are usually a good source region for us, especially if the La Nina / -PDO are to collapse late toward an El Nino or +PDO. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens a bit later than I initially expected though given how everything has gone to date.

Deal With it - Cosgrove

He’s Sox fan too . Thankfully there’s been nothing to cheer about for either bs base there for awhile

Isn’t there actually supposed to be something to that? I can’t remember where I’ve seen that before.

Please elaborate?

why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts

Clear. 27.2°

I should be more realistic because we only average 4-5 in a winter. Just hope we get close to that

Meh, I still think this winter has ratter written all over it. No southern stream involvement and the northern stream only cuts when it occasionally amplifies. Everything else is a strung out POS.

Nothing torks me off more than someone parking in the street in a residential subdivision. Reeks of inadequacies.

assumed you were within the 1" shade. next run will be different anyway

Don’t forget to remind friends and loved ones this Wednesday that Santa isn’t real. .

Windy here too last night. YHZ had a gust to 74mph. Lots of limbs down and 100k without power. Wild storm.

Imagine being a snow and Cowboys fan and having to look at that ugly Giants inflatable and pack when you look out your front window.

Wow what a winter.

Let the weenies have this one lol

i'll tell you one thing that snow Tuesday early am will be heavy with big flakes! if it's below freezing it's going to accumulate!

There's a shakeup for the Pacific in the pipeline as we start getting into January. I think this could offer an opportunity for a period of +PNA after the 1st week when these waves break but we'll see. Maybe this ties into Ray's @40/70 Benchmark ideas mid-month so maybe it's part of that timing to transition to +TNH. But I think sometime week 2 we see some changes and maybe clues to that happening during the 1st week of the month. We're being plagued with a series of -EAMT retracting the Pac jet and locking the Pacific block in place on guidance in perpetuity. High pressure into the west of the Himalayas removes the momentum. While high pressure on the east side would add it. This is likely going to change as we start heading into January. An active convective phase looks to cross an Indian Ocean to MC transit to close out December. These set in motion a series of events that eventually leads to +EAMT and a Pacific jet extension. Even at the end of the current EPS 12z I think we can see some signs of a changing Pacific regime. With high pressure building in Siberia in better position and a Jet beginning to be reinvigorated off the coast of Asia.

Even if you hit 38 -40 there with 1-2” it will be white . Low dews . Low sun . We all had 38-44 prior to the screamer and everyone still had pack

Your high was 31 today with a dry NW flow... There is potential for upper 30s and low 40s late Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS is much colder than EURO , let's hope the colder trends continue and that we max out 32-36 instead..

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 NWS Blend of Models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1