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If you want a giggle - look at the NCAR AI site - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Looks like a nuke went off. Seems NCAR and CSU think today is the big show and tomorrow still a threat but less so. But that could just be since day 1 is here and now, and day 2 still has some uncertainty.

I’d be more tolerant of opposing opinions if the question was “what should we do about it?” There are serious policy questions about the impacts on society (including costs) of transitioning to low-carbon energy. If the debate was cost vs benefit, that is an extremely healthy and useful discussion.

4-6” is your call. Fingers crossed . I’ll be happy with 1”

Just rain dammit

I was fairly surprised there wasn't one yet - but I guess owing to the uncertainty in how robust the storms will be.

No rain here but the front cooled us off a bit. Much better out this morning than last, got down to 76 and now I’m at 80 with dew point 70. Yesterday at this time it was already 87

I’m just busting. I do think the main axis of 2+” remains south.

Thanks for changing the subject lol. Today has the big storm vibe. It was lacking the past two days. Today feels different. LFG! Happy 4th to everyone. Hopefully storms happen between plans.

I could see a CIG1 appear in the 1300z SPC OTLK or the 1630z one

Are you really that dry? We have standing water in some spots.

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

Just showers? How much for Hartford?

This is actually the heaviest rainfall signal that we have seen from the models in quite some time.

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south

45% wind today for the I-95 corridor and thus an enhanced wind risk. Impressive EML pushing into us. Someone is going to get a solid storm.

Kind of a strong smell of smoke out there this morning.

I really hope you are correct with your forecast . I remain highly skeptical of that much rain over a large area. I can think of a bunch of scenarios over the years modeled like this.. and that’s not how it ended .

The bolded is certainly impressive, and surprising.

These always trend north

NWS lowered my point and click to 102F for today.

Stop the count! Seriously, though, I’m going to rack up some departures today since I went too cool so it is still wide open.

CSU MLP supports the 45%

I’ll move our conversation over to banter. I fundamentally agree with you on the doom narrative of climate change or that the environment collapsing is bad. It sets people up to no longer believe in those crisises when the world doesn’t end. Nihilism doesn’t really promote people taking action to cause change. However, I think it’s important to recognize that we both know, you as an expert and myself as a student, that 1.5+ degree C change will be bad. There is no arguing that it is warmer than before the Industrial Revolution. Additionally, there is no arguing that greenhouse gases are responsible for the majority of this increase. Finally, there is no arguing that this increase has, and will continue, to exacerbate increasingly damaging events. The last four sentences aren’t a political narrative, they’re just our scientific understanding of the atmosphere as a fluid body. I recognize that you know more about it than me, so if my logic there was wrong please let me know. The scientific part said, it is frustrating to have people come up to me and say “oh it’s hot because of climate change”. I get that. We need better communication on what it is - an exellerant to extreme patterns - and what it is not - the sole cause of all weather. My last point I want to emphasize as someone who wants to go into environment policy: the ozone hole or acid rain “scares” were extremely detrimental. It is only because of that fear and the groundbreaking legislative effort, both abroad and at home, that we live in a timeline where the ozone hole is a little known fact and confined to the poles. It is because of that effort that acid rain is nonexistent in the US. It is because of that effort and clean air act that our AQI has been in the green despite being trapped under summer ridging. I’ve never known the world my grandparents describe where in summer the sun was dim with smog. It’s important to remember that these are policies that if removed, or gutted, we can and will go back to a more polluted and less healthy planet.